Running back Andre Brown of N.C. State could be great value for the Bucs as a third or fourth round pick. JoeBucsFan.com analyst Justin Pawlowski analyzes 13 running backs worthy of a pick in the 2009 draft.

Today NFL Draft guru Justin Pawlowski has released nine pages of analysis on 13 running backs worthy of a draft pick. You’ll learn everything you want to know about them, plus when, where and how each could impact the Bucs roster.

Enjoy.

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Knowshon Moreno, Georgia
5-11, 217, 4.63
First round
 
Why I’m taking him:
Moreno does it all. The guy can run between the tackles. He can run outside. He can block. He can catch.  He can do it all.  He’s a very balanced back who could help my team in all sorts of ways.  I remember watching him for the first time a couple years ago and saying to myself that he’s going to be a hell of a running back. He hasn’t disappointed yet.  By the way, don’t question the man’s heart.
 
Why I’m staying away:
Moreno concerns me as a premier back in the NFL. I’ll talk about this more in my “NFL Comparison,” but his running style has me worried. His lack of ideal size and hard running could lead to injuries in the NFL.  Also, his lack of breakaway speed convinces me that he is not an elite prospect in this draft.  Right now, he’s no better than half of a two-headed monster in the NFL.  The good news for him is that many teams in the NFL use that.
 
Impact on the Bucs roster:
As I state in this section with Beanie Wells, there just isn’t a very good chance that the Bucs look at the running back position in the first round of this draft.  They might look later, but with Graham and Ward in the backfield, they have bigger needs to address.  If, by chance, they draft Moreno, expect Cadillac Williams to either be cut or placed on injured reserve for the 2009 season.  Ward and Graham would handle most of the carries on first and second down.  Clifton Smith would stick mainly to special teams.  Moreno would end up being the Bucs third down back.
 
NFL Comparison:
Carnell “Cadillac” Williams and Brian Westbrook:  It’s a strange comparison, but I see a little of both these running backs in Moreno.  We’ll start with his running style, which reminds me a lot of Williams.  Moreno isn’t the biggest back, but has a very hard running style.  That style has led to injuries for Cadillac and could do the same for Moreno.  Moreno’s biggest strengths might be his blocking and receiving skills out of the backfield.  That’s where the comparison to Brian Westbrook comes into play.

Chris “Beanie” Wells, Ohio State
6-1, 235, 4.59
First round
 
Why I’m taking him:
I’m taking Beanie because I feel he can be a legit every down back in the NFL.  He has excellent size and vision to succeed at the next level.  He has remarkable agility and balance for a man his size.  He should be able to add to any rushing attack.
 
Why I’m staying away:
Durability is my main beef with Beanie.  With all the talent he has, he just hasn’t been able to stay healthy over the course of his collegiate career.  For a bigger back like he is, his durability issues would force me to look at other players available.  Another concern of mine would be his leadership skills and overall competitiveness, or lack thereof.  This kind of goes with his durability issues, and his lack of heart to play through certain ones.  Many of his injuries that forced him out of games weren’t of the serious kind.
 
Impact on the Bucs roster:
Let’s face it, the odds of the Bucs drafting a running back in the first round dropped once they signed Derrick Ward.  If, by chance, the entire Buccaneer organization goes insane and they draft Beanie, that would most definitely end Cadillac Williams career with the Bucs.  It would also put Jeff Jagodzinski in a position where he has a bunch of running backs and only a certain amount of carries to go around.  Most likely, one of the running backs will be frustrated with his lack of carries.  Who knows, maybe this is part of “The Dream’s direction?  Personally, I think it would be stupid!!!!
 
NFL Comparison:
Michael Turner:  I see a lot of Michael Turner’s running style when I watch Beanie Wells.  Also, much like Turner, Wells isn’t a huge threat to catch the ball out of the back field.  The one glaring difference between the two is Turner’s speed.  Then again, there’s a reason they call him “The Burner.” 

 
Lesean McCoy, Pittsburgh
5-10, 198, DNP
Fringe first round
 
Why I’m taking him:
McCoy is a threat every time he touches the ball.  He’s a big play waiting to happen.  I got to see him first hand run over some of the best run defenses in the country last year.  He’s got excellent hands out of the backfield, very good vision, and excellent body control. He’s always leaning forward.   One of his negatives is that he doesn’t break tackles if the defender gets a good shot on him.  Did you catch the word “if” in there?  Good luck getting a good hit on this shifty back.
 
Why I’m staying away:
Size is the major concern with McCoy.  With his lack of ideal size comes the worry of him not being able to carry the load of an NFL offense.  Another concern of mine is his propensity to bounce everything to the outside looking for the big play.  Hey, I love big plays as much as the next guy, but sometimes the smart move is taking what the defense gives you.
 
Impact on the Bucs roster:
A player like McCoy would fit in very nicely with what Jeff Jagodzinski is now running with the Bucs.  I believe McCoy could thrive in a zone blocking scheme, allowing him to use his athletic ability and vision.  In addition, one of McCoy’s negatives is that he can’t carry the load.  In Tampa, he wouldn’t have to with Earnest Graham, Derrick Ward, and Clifton Smith looking for their own carries.  This would likely spell the end for Cadillac Williams.
 
NFL Comparison:
Darren Sproles:  Although he’s much bigger than Sproles, McCoy and Sproles have many of the same attributes.  After Sproles proved he could carry the load in the playoffs last season, I believe that helped guys like McCoy.  Both these players are big play threats every time they touch the ball whether it be on a running play or in the pass game.  McCoy should be a part of a good 1-2 punch in the NFL.

 
Donald Brown, Connecticut
5-10, 210, 4.51
Second-third round
 
Why I’m taking him:
I’m taking Brown because I know he can carry the load.  In 2008, he had over 2,000 yards on the ground with 18 touchdowns.  I also know he has tremendous work ethic and leadership skills.  Anyone that plays four years under Randy Edsall has to have a good work ethic.  Trust me; I only made it through one season under Edsall.  Then again, I didn’t have a good work ethic.  I was more interested in talking about football than playing it, especially under Edsall.
 
Why I’m staying away:
Two words: stutter step.  One thing that always pissed me off about Cadillac Williams was him trying to juke someone out while still in the backfield.  If there is a hole, the running back needs to hit it.  Every carry I’ve seen Brown take has him stuttering in the backfield.  That’s a bad habit that needs to be corrected.  In college you might be able to get away with it, but in the pros, that hesitation means you’re being tackled in the backfield.  Don’t believe me, ask Cadillac Williams.
 
Impact on the Bucs roster:
I don’t see much of an impact from Brown if the Bucs draft him.  He’ll be no better than third on the depth chart, and probably lose out to Derrick Ward for third down responsibilities.  Unless the Bucs acquire a second round pick somehow, the only way the Bucs get Brown as of right now, would be to draft him in the latter part of the third round.  If that’s the case, I wouldn’t have a huge problem with it because it would be tremendous value.
 
NFL Comparison:
Justin Fargas:  Brown isn’t the flashiest of running backs, but he is consistent.  Fargas might be a stretch as a comparison because Brown has the potential to be much better than Fargas, but right now, on film, they look very similar. 
 
 
Shonn Green, Iowa
5-10, 227, 4.72
Second-third round
 
Why I’m taking him:
I’m drafting Greene because I know he’s going to be an every down back for me.  He has the body to withstand a beating in the NFL, and still get the ball 25 times a game.  With that big body, Greene rarely has injuries.  In 2006 he missed three games with a sprained ankle.  He missed no games last season.  He also reads his blockers well, and runs right through arm tackles.
 
Why I’m staying away:
The value of running backs has dropped significantly over the past few years.  With that being said, when comparing Greene to other running backs in this draft, he just isn’t explosive at all as a running back.  Along those lines, he does not have very good speed at all to break long runs in the NFL either.  His hands are very suspect, which makes him unusable on third downs.  He has also had some problems keeping his weight down.
 
Impact on the Bucs roster:
If the Bucs draft a running back in this draft, and that’s a big “if,” I expect it to be more of a playmaking type of running back.  To me, drafting Shonn Greene would make absolutely no sense to me.  I wouldn’t expect it, but if it were to happen, expect him to be the third running back off the bench during games and to not see many carries in 2009.
 
NFL Comparison:
Jamal Lewis:  Greene doesn’t have the speed Lewis possessed once upon a time, but he is a big physical back that a team could rely on for 25-30 carries a game.  He’s a workhorse, but not a game changer.
 
 
Rashad Jennings, Liberty
6-1, 231, 4.59
Second-fourth round
 
Why I’m taking him:
Jennings is an every down back who will bring power to my run game.  He’s a horse, and possesses very good vision to find the hole.  He isn’t just going to run you over though.  He has great agility to juke and go around a defender.  He doesn’t have any character issues.  He transferred to Liberty after one season at Pitt to be closer to his father who was ill.  As a true freshman at Pittsburgh, he was second on the team in rushing with close to 500 yards on the ground.
 
Why I’m staying away:
I’m not so sure Jennings brings as much power as I’d like him to.  That makes me question whether or not he likes contact.  Also, he won’t be a big threat in the pass game.  He lacks the explosion you’d want through the hole.  He’s also had some ball security issues during his collegiate career.
 
Impact on the Bucs roster:
If drafted by the Bucs, Jennings would be the relied upon to be the power and short yardage back.  Of course, with Graham and Ward there, Jennings wouldn’t get a lot of carries to begin with, but that might be a good thing for him to develop.  Bye-bye Cadillac.
 
NFL Comparison:
Brandon Jacobs:  This guy reminds me of Jacobs when Jacobs was in the draft.  Because he transferred to Liberty to be with his ill father, Jennings might go under the radar for the first few rounds.  If he stays at Pitt and progresses the way he did at Liberty, he might have been a first round pick.  Jennings doesn’t have as much power as Jacobs yet, but the size, strength, agility, and vision are there.  Remember, Jacobs was a little quiet his rookie season then exploded.
 
 
Andre Brown, North Carolina State
6-0, 224, 4.49
Third-fourth round
 
Why I’m taking him:
The combination of power and speed stands out most to me when watching Andre Brown.  The stiff arm he put on a Seminoles defender on his way to a 65 yard touchdown run was amazing.  He’s got excellent vision.  He went under the radar due to his lack of carries in college.  In four years at N.C. State he never carried the ball more than 175 times in a season.  That means one thing to me: fresh legs.
 
Why I’m staying away:
On the flip side of having fresh legs, by never carrying more than 175 times in a season would mean that Brown never had to carry the load.  He has also had a few injuries which makes durability a concern.  He’s not a threat out of the backfield either.
 
Impact on the Bucs roster:
Brown is the type of running back I always talk about when I say you can get good value at the position later on in the draft.  Brown has a good balance of power and speed, and the later he lasts in the draft, the more he’s going to make the team that drafts him happy.  For the Bucs, I’d rather have Brown in the third round than either Knowshon Moreno or Beanie Wells in the first round.  Brown would be the third back for the Bucs behind Graham and Ward, but would be a good fit in the zone blocking scheme.
 
NFL Comparison:
Larry Johnson:  Brown has the good vision and big body to find the hole with some power.  He also has pretty good agility to make defenders miss.  He’ll be an underrated prospect going in, but he’ll be an absolute steal late in the third round or into the fourth round.
 
Mike Goodson – Texas A&M
6-0, 208, 4.54
Third-fifth round

Why I’m taking him:
I’d take Goodson with the knowledge of making him a third down back and a home run threat.  He has a good burst in the open field, and maybe the best hands in the draft for a running back.  He doesn’t have much experience as a returner in college, but could succeed as one in the NFL.
 
Why I’m staying away:
He didn’t have the production in 2008 that I expected after going over 700 yards rushing with four touchdowns in 2006 and 2007.  Actually, his stats steadily declined over the course of his career at Texas A&M.  Injuries played a role in this which has me questioning his durability.  There are also reports that he might have had a strenuous relationship with the former *and* current coaching staffs at Texas A&M.  I’d be very concerned about that.
 
Impact on the Bucs roster:
Goodson is the type of back I could see the Bucs taking a long look at on draft day.  Goodson is more of a homerun threat that would pair well with the power that Graham and Derrick Ward bring.  Goodson also has good vision to find the hole which is very important in the Bucs new zone blocking scheme.
 
NFL Comparison:
Leon Washington:  I expect Goodson to start his NFL career as mainly a third down back and on special teams.  If he improves the same way Leon Washington did, he’ll find himself more involved in the offense that selects him.
 
Ian Johnson, Boise State
5-11, 212, 4.46
Third-fifth Round
 
Why I’m taking him:
I was very impressed when watching Johnson on film.  There are many reasons I’d draft him.  I think the main reason I’d take a player like Johnson is his desire, heart and leadership skills.  I was also extremely impressed with his vision and decision making.  What I mean is that when he decides on a hole, he hits it hard.  I also don’t understand the knock on his speed.  The guy ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at the combine which was one of the faster times.  By the way, he has excellent hands.
 
Why I’m staying away:
I’m staying away from Johnson because the odds are that he won’t become an elite running back.  Injuries have also plagued him the last couple of years at Boise State.  He doesn’t possess an elite burst to see the hole.  He’ll see the hole and he’ll hit the hole, but the burst is what gets you through that hole.  That might hurt him in the NFL.
 
Impact on the Bucs roster:
I couldn’t imagine a team that wouldn’t want Johnson on their team.  That includes the Bucs, who already have running backs.  Johnson will contribute on offense and special teams.  I believe he would mesh really well with Graham and Ward, and also become a fan favorite with his team-first attitude.
 
NFL Comparison:
Earnest Graham:  Johnson doesn’t have elite speed.  His measurable aren’t up there with other top tier running backs.  He’ll have to start his career playing on special teams.  He’s got very good vision and hands, and can help your team in multiple ways.  He loves the game of football and allows that to show on the field.  If that doesn’t sound like Earnest Graham, I don’t know what does.
 
Glen Coffee, Alabama
6-0, 209, 4.58
Third-fifth round
 
Why I’m taking him:
When Coffee gets a carry, he runs like he’s angry.  I like that.  He sees the hole and has surprising burst through it.  When struck with a decision as to whether to take on a defender or run around him, Coffee always chooses to make contact.  He’s a physical football player who loves the weight room.
 
Why I’m staying away:
A sports hernia forced Coffee to miss the 2006 season while he dealt with a shoulder injury throughout all of 2007.  With that, durability is definitely a concern.  Remember that “liking contact” thing I wrote above? Well, it’s not necessarily a good thing to like contact in the NFL.  It could lead to more injuries.  Coffee lacks elite speed and size.
 
Impact on the Bucs roster:
I’m not so sure Coffee would be a good fit for the Bucs.  He’s not much of a special teams player and I don’t think he’ll account to much more than a role player.  To me, the Bucs could address other needs or draft other running backs no matter what round it is.
 
NFL Comparison:
Tim Hightower:  While not as big or fast as Hightower, Coffee runs with reckless abandon.  The worry is that Coffee will continue to run like that even though he doesn’t have very good size.  Expect injuries to be a big part of Coffee’s career.
 
James Davis, Clemson
5-11, 218, 4.6
Fourth-fifth round
 
Why I’m taking him:
I’m taking Davis because of the balance he has as a running back.  He can run between the tackles, but also has the speed to run outside.  He has good hands and good vision. 
 
Why I’m staying away:
I think there are other running backs in this draft that bring a lot more to the table.  Davis is good at a lot of different things, but when I watch him, he isn’t necessarily great at anything.  Timed speed was less than desired at the combine.
 
Impact on the Bucs roster:
If the Bucs select him, I’d hope it would be later rather than earlier.  He’d be nothing more than a No. 3 running back for the Bucs.  I’m not so sure he’d get much higher than that in the next couple of years.
 
NFL Comparison:
Ryan Grant:  Davis has a good overall combination of skills.  Much like Ryan Grant, Davis can be a good back, but I don’t expect him to ever be elite.
 
Jeremiah Johnson, Oregon
5-9, 209, 4.67
Fourth-fifth round
 
Why I’m taking him:
I like Johnson’s balance of skills.  He’s a patient runner with nice balance and great instincts.  He’s the type of runner that can give you a good punch off the bench.  He’ll also be a threat on special teams.  As for his lack of timed speed, on film, he must be deceptively fast because he was running past defenders.
 
Why I’m staying away:
Johnson doesn’t have ideal size or speed for a running back in the NFL.  I’m not so sure he’d be able to take a beating like he would in the NFL.  He was never really utilized as a receiver at Oregon, and also never had to carry the load.
 
Impact on the Bucs roster:
Johnson would be nothing more than the third running back and contribute on special teams.  I’m not so sure he’d be an upgrade over Clifton Smith.
 
NFL Comparison:
Leon Washington:  Johnson best bet at making it in the NFL is to start out the same way Washington did with the Jets.  Johnson could be valuable as a team’s third down back and returner.
 
Javon Ringer, Michigan State
5-9, 205, 4.6
Fourth-sixth round
 
Why I’m taking him:
I’m taking Ringer due to his elusive agility and balance.  He plays much bigger than his stature.  He has excellent hands and does very well in pass protection.  He also has great character, he’s a hard worker, has excellent work ethic, and was a team leader.
 
Why I’m staying away:
His size might prevent him from carrying the load in the NFL.  He lacks ideal size and speed.  With that lack of size, durability becomes a concern. 
 
Impact on the Bucs roster:
I’m not sure Ringer would be a good fit for the Bucs.  The most Ringer will probably be in the NFL will be a third down back due to his great receiving and blocking skills.  If the Bucs draft him, it shouldn’t affect the other running backs on the team at all.
 
NFL Comparison:
Michael Pittman:  Much like Pittman, Ringer will be very good on third downs.  Jon Gruden tried to make Pittman an every down back, but he was at his best as a receiver and a blocker.