Dropping The Ball
December 7th, 2011
There are all sorts of elements to discuss about how the last-place Bucs season is circling the drain.
No linebacker play to speak of, inability to stop the run up front, lack of big play-making ability in the secondary, an erratic passing game… Joe could go on.
But the stat geeks of BSPN regurgitate numbers and in some cases, some interesting elements can be found, as has Pat Yasinskas.
The Bucs are third in the NFL in dropped passes, and two of the main culprits are the two prizes of the 2010 draft, Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn.
After that, there’s pretty strong representation for the NFC South in the top 10. Tampa Bay’s Mike Williams is tied for third with seven drops. His teammate, Arrelious Benn, is tied for No. 7 with five drops.
Of course this information is not all bad from Yasinskas. Who are the Bucs tied with for dropped passes? The Dixie Chicks, who appear to be on the verge of another postseason berth with the Bears and the Lions doing their best to tank their successful seasons.
December 7th, 2011 at 3:24 pm
It is not as bad as you think with Mike. He has been targeted 102 times and has dropped 8. Compare that to Brandon Marshall who has been targeted 105 times and has dropped 11. Or Greg little in Cleveland who has been targeted 90 times and dropped 14.
Benn on the other hand has only been targeted 47 times and has 7 drops.
BTW these numbers are not from ESPN but PFF. ESPN likes to keep their stats and stat guys hidden. Makes me doubt the authenticity of stats.
December 7th, 2011 at 3:40 pm
Dropped passes, bad throws, bad decisions, bad routes, penalties….
Not to mention the defense and their problems….
It all adds up to LACK OF DISCIPLINE and the mantra of “they are young” is not an excuse or reason anymore.
It is coaching. LB and WR coaches have to go. Raheem HAS to give up the DC job and possibly be fired altogether. Not sure about that yet, but he should have gotten a handle on things weeks ago and he did not.
The issue I see is he had a young team and tried to be “joe positive reinforcement guy” and instill confidence. That’s great, but too a point. He became their buddy and now it appears he does not have their ear or respect when it comes to having to discipline or get tough.
Much easier to be a tough guy, disciplinarian coach who eases his foot off and relaxes than being a buddy who has to get tough.
It may be too late for Raheem in Tampa.
December 7th, 2011 at 3:50 pm
Interesting drop in power rankings in PFT and Sport Illustrated. Bucs going from 6 at the beginning of the season to 27 (just above the Browns and behind the Skins). Sad., really sad.
December 7th, 2011 at 4:14 pm
The bucs arent better than 5 teams right now. They were barely better than the Colts before this horrible swoon started.
Arguably, the bucs are equivalent to the Colts, maybs Jags and Rams – the Browns would clean their clock right now, the Colts may also.
You could make an argument that they are ranked 32nd.
December 7th, 2011 at 4:24 pm
I think we can take the Brownies, Colt McCoy ain’t the answer there and their run game has disappeared.
December 7th, 2011 at 4:29 pm
Wow I didn’t realize Arrelious had as many drops as catches this season. Who knew? I just can’t wait until we spring the good ole end around on the unsuspecting Jags defense this weekend!
December 7th, 2011 at 4:31 pm
We as fan’s will always be here to support our team and especially the players who lay it on the line every single week. The problem most of us are facing is that there is no light at the end of the tunnel. What exactly do we have to look forward to? A below average team this Sunday could very well line up and kick the crap out of us. So if we get hammered by a team like the Jag’s then what?
December 7th, 2011 at 4:41 pm
Joe, how crippled are these guys by the CBA, regarding practice time?
For example, if Benn himself wanted to practice with a juggs machine for 2 hours every day, would that be in violation of a cap on practice time?
December 7th, 2011 at 4:55 pm
A loss to the jags would be the signature loss for the season.
December 7th, 2011 at 4:55 pm
Tomas 2.2, You’re a smart guy and I’m going to presume that you understand the word “enigma”. I’m also going to presume that you don’t delve into the black arts or believe in the alignment of stars, etc. So enamor me and explain what happened when the Bucs beat the Saints and the Falcons this year. I hope you don’t mind if I ask you in advance to avoid cliches like “blind pig finds an acorn” or “on any given Sunday”. And of course you know that luck is defined as “when effort meets opportunity”. I would be interested in your learned opinion!
December 7th, 2011 at 4:57 pm
I apologize for misspelling your name, just a typo, not a dig!
December 7th, 2011 at 5:44 pm
A juggs machine?
Like at Hooters?
December 7th, 2011 at 6:53 pm
Macabee:
Saints: a couple of things happened in that game; a) payton got hurt couldnt watch the game from his perspective which threw off his ability to diagnose and communicate the way he and Brees often do; then the Saints receivers had an off day, a lot if drops including the big one right off of a receivers hands into T Jax’s. With that, the Saints win on the last day but for an uncharacteristic poor throw and pick from Brees on the last drive (which would have won it for NO).
In sum, strange circumstances and an off day by the Saints on the road. Remember, GMC didnt play during that bucs win.
As for Atlanta, too conservative a game plan allowed the Bucs to hang around, and thr second half of that gamd the bucx played their best half (one of two or three this year) and the Birds couldnt pull it out in the second half as expected. You will see big adjustments from Mike Smith in the second game that should coast the Birds to a comfortable victory.
Listen macabee, I dont think that the Saints and Falcons are flawless teams. They both are flawed, I think thd Falcon offense is prone to droughts and the Saints defense is marginal, especially without Vilma.
The difference: these two teams have 2 or 3 bad games a year because they are well-coached, prepared and professional. Rah’s teams will be lucky to have 2 or 3 solid games per year because the coaching, preparation and discipline are embarrassingly poor – historically poor.
A good disciplined coach could take this team and have them equivalent to or maybe even better than the Falcons over a season. Free is better than Ryan and our O line is better but their receivers and TE are superior. Defensively, nobody is worse than us but our talent in the secondary is superior.
December 7th, 2011 at 6:56 pm
Sorry for the typos
December 7th, 2011 at 7:02 pm
@Thomas…I hate to admit it, but I agree with you…
December 7th, 2011 at 7:28 pm
Thomas, I appreciate your response and I agree generally with your analysis. But it hardly sounds like your scathing view of the worst team in the league in your original post. If I understood your rationale, you don’t believe the team (with some exceptions) is that bad, you believe the coach(ing) leaves a lot to be desired. I agree! Where we are most likely to disagree is that it is singularly one person (Morris) and not coaching across the board made worse by some FO decisions that has lengthened the growth curve for the entire team. I realize that as HC he is ultimately responsible and must be held accountable, as likely he will, for the team’s inconsistent performance this year. I owe no particular allegiance to Morris, but I honestly think it is going to take more than his firing alone to right this ship!
December 7th, 2011 at 8:22 pm
It’s all about catchable balls and winnable games. The Bucs have pulled these in few and far between.
December 7th, 2011 at 8:23 pm
Macabee: pretty reasonable comment. I agree replacing Rah is just the start of the road to redemption bc it will take any new coach some time to shake off the effects of this undisciplined current regime’s impact on these players.
Yes you are correct that the FO has erred, some caused by the Glazers plan or more accurately budget. You are also correct that this team is not horrible in talent, yes it is incomplete but even the talented players like Free and Williams arent playing at their level (either is the entire defense). That is a coaching failure.
December 7th, 2011 at 11:52 pm
Hey joe this is of topic but it seems like with day going by you put up less and less articles? Is it the season are you losing hope on the organization?
December 7th, 2011 at 11:59 pm
If we get a new defensive coordinator, it better be someone who has a proven record of success and one that actually gets the fans excited.
Did I seriously read “Jimmy Lake” somewhere on one of the last articles? LMAO, you mean the guy who coaches the worst group of linebackers in the NFL?!?! Quincy Jane Black and Gena Hayes?
Enough with this cheap, “hiring within the organization” crap. All of our coaches suck. Don’t fire Raheem from the DC position if you’re just going to hire some other loser who hasn’t BEEN A COORDINATOR! We’ve tried that, and so far it hasn’t worked out.
December 8th, 2011 at 1:02 am
Seems like Raheems Ego is standing in the way. He has hired and fired 4 coaches in his last 2 years with Tampa. Jim Bates, Jagodzinsky, and both our O and D Line coaches from last years 10 and 6 team.
His defense still sucks canal water, and he is literally the head person in charge.
December 8th, 2011 at 1:41 am
Patrick:
Gotta extend Raheem’s contract then.
December 8th, 2011 at 1:42 am
canadianbuc:
Not sure what you mean.
December 8th, 2011 at 1:43 am
Patrick:
Jimmy Lake coaches the secondary.
December 8th, 2011 at 1:47 am
Leighroy:
Not at all. The CBA only applies to mandatory practices. If a guy wants to catch using the Juggs machine for two hours on his own time, he’s free to knock himself out.
December 8th, 2011 at 2:03 am
“Jimmy Lake coaches the secondary”
My mistake, but the secondary sucks too!
December 8th, 2011 at 2:08 am
“Gotta extend Raheem’s contract then”
I’ll tell you what, the Glazers are almost playing with fire if they bring back Raheem next season. They better damn well be 100% confident they won’t have another crappy season. If they do, this team is going to lose A LOT of fans, people will be jumping off the Skyway, and the attendance will probably plummet to 20,000 a game.
December 8th, 2011 at 2:34 am
Patrick:
Here’s some late-night reading for you:
https://www.joebucsfan.com/?p=58520
December 8th, 2011 at 9:40 am
Joe,
Just because the tv money has become huge doesnt mean that it makes financial sense to ignore the Gate.
1) the gate revenue is still substantial;
2) the popularity of the product in general suffers when a community discounts the value of the in game product;
3) empty stands adversely affects the TV experience.
The stands will be essentially empty if Rah stays. If he goes and nearly anyone else other than Jimmy Lake is named head coach – interest will increase.
December 8th, 2011 at 10:28 am
@Thomas2.2
Wiish it were that simple.
The real equation is :
new coach salary + additional FA payroll + additional attendance + t.v. money < rahs salary and lower payroll + low attendance + t.v money
December 8th, 2011 at 11:54 am
Eric your equation is accurate in the short-term(except the more/less symbol should be reversed unless you mean savings and not cost).
I believe in the long-term the cost of keeping Rah and low-cost talent is much greater due to the wasting away of the interest in the product that occurs over time and will ultimately affect TV contracts and asset/team valuation.
December 8th, 2011 at 12:34 pm
Eric, you’re pretty close, but the one thing you can count on is that the Glazers boys have run the numbers with some sensitivity analysis thrown in. For instance, If you make the changes that Thomas recommends, will the attendance return immediately, after 8 games, after 1 season, ever? Did anyone hear NFL Networks report on high profile coaches – that Jeff Fisher is planning to return and is assembling his would be staff now? That means the cost of a new coach + the cost of new staff + the cost of any unpaid contracts like Morris or other staff released prematurely. A good Beta Model with most likely scenarios will surely influence their decision. I think the most difficult thing for them to do is abandon the current strategy and publicly admit it’s failure. As you said, not that simple!