“You Stupid People”
March 1st, 2011
Justin Houston helped himself at the combine. Did he catch Mark Dominik's eye? The Commish, Justin Pawlowski, NFL Draft guru extraordinaire, explains all this and more.
Before giving a great breakdown of defensive players’ performance and buzz coming out of the just completed NFL Scouting Combine, draft guru The Commish, Justin Pawlowski, explains why only clueless observers would find the combine meaningless.
The Commish is fiesty today.
If you didn’t pay attention to any defensive players at the combine, you’ll get up to speed fast in this podcast.
Click the arrow below or download here.
[audio: 3111combinedefense.mp3]
Don’t forget all Pawlowski’s exclusive draft coverage on JoeBucsFan.com is archived here. He’ll also answer your draft questions here on Wednesday. Fire them off to him at commish@620wdae.com.
March 1st, 2011 at 6:42 pm
Justin PaliWHO???
Isn’t this the SAME guy who had the SAME list of 32 players in his mock 1st round draft as all the other usual gurus?
Yeah the same Justin who had Akeem Ayers being drafted in the teens. Now all of a sudden, my guru, just like all the other guru’s, will go update their little draft boards based on 40 times and bench presses.
Now all of a sudden the Guru who NEVER had these guys ranked very high to begin with, touts them:
” Wilson stands at 6’4” and 250 lbs. Like Moch, Wilson also ran a 4.44 in his 40-yard dash. ”
Is it a coincidence that these two guys were the fastest DE’s and LB’s to run the 40? So because you filtered on the fastest guys, now they are all of a sudden top picks when they weren’t pre-combine?
Even I myself touted these guys yesterday, mainly in jest, mainly because i am just a random fan commenting on a blog, mainly because I get excited about this stuff.
But for Justin the alleged draft guru who posts lists no different than the rest of the internet gurus and then all of a sudden claims that the two fastest guys are top prospects, well come on. They ran fast 40’s and are therefore top prospects that you overlooked in preparation to the mock draft? I just think it is all too convenient to proclaim ‘guru’ status yet have the same information as the next guy, then turn around and update it all based on 40 times, like your initial analysis was moot.
But, I like Justin and appreciate his time he puts into this stuff. I do. I just don’t gravitate to self proclaimed gurus when they are actually not. Like, I don’t want a guy who claims to be a painter to paint my house, or a guy who claims to be a surgeon to operate on me.
March 1st, 2011 at 6:45 pm
Again, I appreciate Justin’s material and read it. I harbor no ill will or hate.
But I am a critic of his guru status. 🙂 That’s all.
March 1st, 2011 at 7:14 pm
weneeddefense- nice tirade. Did you have a point in all that? Is your point that Justin doesn’t know what he’s talking about because, like everyone else, he wasn’t aware the Martez Wilson had such elite speed or that Akeem Ayers would be atrocious in bench, 40 ,and 3 cone? Of course, that will cause everyone to reevaluate those guys. Thats the whole point of the combine. So that guys that look good on tape in college but that have athletic defencies that wont translate well to the NFL can be exposed. And vice versa guys like Wilson can answer question marks about their game that maybe cant quite be gleaned just from game tape. Like, just how fast is this big 6’4″ 250 lb. linebacker? Oh, he’s absolutely blazing fast? Of, course that changes things.
March 1st, 2011 at 7:20 pm
Looks like somebody forgot to take their meds today…
March 1st, 2011 at 7:29 pm
Hey WENEEDDEFENSE ..
Justin had the Bucs taking Moch in the 2nd round of his Bucs draft like 2 weeks ago. Just an FYI
March 1st, 2011 at 7:39 pm
Justin- Thanks for putting the smackdown on jackasses that think the combine is meaningless. Of course it should just be common sense that they wouldn’t even hold it if it didn’t matter but whatever. I can’t believe how some people think that a 40 yard dash time is meaningless to say, the WR position. As if speed recievers aren’t asked to run 40+ yards downfield in a relatively straight line on a regular basis on the football field. Of course some measurements are less applicable than other when it comes to actually playing football and that varies by position which are most relevant but idiots that dismiss the combine wholesale are just that. Of course these measurements aren’t the full picture of a player but they certainly form part of the picture. Don’t think a 40 yard dash matters to a reciever or cornerback? Guess you are unaware of the existence of the go route. Don’t think vertical leap matters to those same guys? I guess you don’t think QB’s ever throw jump balls.
For instance Titus Young was getting second and even possible first round consideration as possibly being “the next DeSean Jackson” if he could run a 40 in the 4.3 range(was even claiming he could run in 4.2 range) Well he ran a freaking 4.53 and speed was the big reason his stock was so high so now no one has to waste a first round pick on wannabe DeSean. So I guess the combine mattered there.
Once again- The combine isn’t more important than any of the other evaluation tools scouts use but people that claim its meaningless are just ignorant people with one track minds. Oh Darrius Heyward Bey ran a fast 40 yard dash but sucks in the NFL so now 40 yard dash time is irrelevant. Thats how some people’s minds work. They think because someone reaches and gets burned on a workout warrior now and then that the combine results are now totally meaningless. Ignorant.
March 1st, 2011 at 7:53 pm
From what I have gathered in the past few weeks, it sounds this is a good year to go DE/LB in the first 2 rounds. There is a lot of value when the Bucs will pick in either round.
March 1st, 2011 at 9:31 pm
Justin has no evaluation tools. Does he have a scouting department that gathers his film to watch? Does he even watch film on every one of these guys?
Justin has yet to explain his methodology in how he comes to his conclusions other than what his gut feeling is. So because of that, he is no different than anyone making comments on a blog.
Where is the ‘information’ to back up his analysis? Seriously. Don’t claim to be a guru if you don’t reinforce your ‘predictions’ with legitimate data that at least pretends to allude to a ranking.
His list was barely different than any other guy on the internet.
I want to call him a guru. But give more legitimate reasoning backed up by real data.
You want real analysis, read the type of analysis Steve White used to write about the defense. He reinforced his reasoning with fundamentals of the position based on what the players actually did on the field. Then he said, go see the game replays for yourself to see what he was talking about. Then he even humbly admitted that TV replays were no where near as substantial as actual scout film. And Steve didn’t even call himself a guru.
There are 32 teams in the NFL and these teams spend millions upon millions invested in fully staffed scouting departments. And they very often get it wrong, with professional scouting reports and data et al.
If Justin wants to consider himself to be on a level where he thinks he is qualified to grade players and then team’s drafting performance post draft, then he better start coming clean with why he thinks these guys are ranked at the spots they are, reinforced by legitimate data.
Not mad, all smiles guys. 🙂
March 1st, 2011 at 10:04 pm
Joe,
WeNeedDefense stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night, though….
March 2nd, 2011 at 2:33 am
weneeddefense- No one is stopping you from going to get your draft coverage elsewhere.
March 2nd, 2011 at 3:51 am
LOVE the idea of Houston – in my opinion, he matches up with what we want from the position.
His KEI is pretty explosive – and he’s capable of a a 40 time in the 4.60’s!
and at 6′ 3″ 270 lbs – and an ability to speed rush AND bull rush = and play the run is unquestioned.
We have GOT to get Houston!!
March 2nd, 2011 at 9:15 am
Are kidding girl?
I already read up in other places. This isn’t where I get my draft info. I even went as far as checking his website out over on WDAE and read through his stuff hoping to find the plethora of information that would label him an expert. It was just a running blog of hos opinion. I read his first and second round blurbs, and they too lacked any information that proved why he rated any of the guys where they were. I could really quote all of the lack of substance with ease. But its not that big of a deal to me. I am still waiting for what Joe made available for people to pay for last year. Seriously, people paid for Justin’s coverage last year? I see nothing that points to he knows specifically anything other than what is on the internet about these players. All of his ‘agent’ rumors were wrong.
All I’m saying is, if you gonna call yourself a guru, then you better communicate more clearly just what makes you know why these guys rate the way they do.
Not, well Jacksonville needs a LB, so they will draft Akeem Ayers in round one because he is big. The Jags need a run stuffer.
Wow, great analysis.
March 2nd, 2011 at 10:41 am
WeNeedDefense
Based on what Joe told you about Justin and the fact that EVERY SINGLE so-called draft expert is also “just their opinion”, what exactly is the issue?
Seriously, I don’t care how much combine you watch or how many interviews you do or how much tape you watch, it is all opinion and all a crap shoot.
March 2nd, 2011 at 11:15 am
“…it is all opinion and all a crap shoot”
Agreed.
Good thing you aren’t proclaiming guru status either.
🙂