Will Johnson Brings “Value”
April 19th, 2025
Michigan CB Will Johnson.
If you believe the Bucs may be too spooked by the shoulder surgery top inside linebacker prospect Jihaad Campbell had, then this pick doesn’t make sense.
Jordan Reid of BSPN selected the best value pick for each team in the first round (yeah, ways to spin the draft are just about tapped out). Thankfully, the draft arrives Thursday night.
Reid believes the best value pick for the Bucs is Michigan corner Will Johnson.
A long and instinctive zone corner, Johnson has remained on the board for too long. My No. 9 overall player is capable of generating turnovers in bunches and has the awareness and ball skills to fit right into the Bucs’ secondary.
Campbell may be the best roster fit because the Bucs have a crater at inside linebacker. Throw in the fact Campbell can also rush the passer, Joe believes this Campbell could become the player the Bucs hoped Devin White should have been.
But if one doesn’t believe the Bucs will draft Campbell due to the Alabama linebacker’s shoulder surgery, why would the Bucs draft a corner who makes Jamel Dean look healthy and who even in private workouts this month refuses to run a 40-yard dash?
What’s this guy hiding?
That doesn’t add up for Joe.
Johnson led college ball last year with two pick-sixes while only playing in six games due to a variety of ailments, including a toe injury and a bum hamstring.
In fact, enough teams are bothered by Johnson’s less-than-upfront dealings that Reid himself noted Johnson has slipped on many teams’ boards and is unlikely to be the first full-time, dedicated corner selected.
Still, Reid thinks Johnson checks all the boxes for the Bucs, which have had one of the worst pass defenses the past two seasons.
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April 19th, 2025 at 4:56 am
Still on the fence about Campbell. However, see if he is there later on, 4th round.
Reid is completely wrong. It’s a no on Johnson. You are right, Joe. A recent hamstring along with previous toe turf and shoulder injury. He seems like a good kid, but a no way for the Bucs. Seems injury prone.
April 19th, 2025 at 6:20 am
Intriguing but taking a later round flier for this guy would not bother me.
I expect to see some strange uniform numbers for DBs this year in camp.
Meaning we are gonna see lots of em. UDFAs, tryout guys, some coaches brother in-law you name it.
Go Bucs!
April 19th, 2025 at 7:12 am
He could be another Dean in the making. Pass.
April 19th, 2025 at 7:35 am
Most mocks have Will Johnson going in the top 10 – so there must be something special jumping off the tape.
He would seem to be good value at 19 based on that – but of course all that matters is how Licht has him evaluated….
We definitely need a good CB out of this draft! Round 2 seems to be the sweet spot for value on good CBs this year.
April 19th, 2025 at 7:56 am
I think our needs on defense are in quite a few places, so I really see them ending up taking the safest player possible. Could be Campbell if they are 100% convinced he is healthy. Otherwise don’t be surprised if it ends up being a safety.
The outlier is if there’s a qb there people want. Then a trade down is a definite possibility to try and leapfrog the Steelers.
April 19th, 2025 at 8:10 am
1st rounders are paid handsomely and need to contribute immediately. Injured first rounders who may miss half their first season are not a good bargain. They are basically paid a king’s ransom to work out for months and get to burn through their first season of their rookie contract. Not a good investment for a first round pick. Players today have learned to game the system and coast through their 1st couple of seasons to preserve their bodies and then turn it on when its time to grab their big bag. I can’t blame them but it does water down the overall product.
April 19th, 2025 at 8:16 am
I think Campbell would be a great add to this team and very productive for the future big old? About this year though. As far as Johnson what even worry about him until the fourth round if he has those injury problems. A good skill corner does no good on the bench we all know that on this team
April 19th, 2025 at 8:42 am
If Campbell is somehow still there at #53 I hope we snag him. Seems to me you can find good corners in rounds 1-5, but good edges are nearly ALWAYS first rounders
April 19th, 2025 at 8:51 am
Yeah my sleeper corners never post no matter what…
April 19th, 2025 at 8:51 am
I wonder if Docs and Trainers will have a significant impact on this years auction?
It’s always a major question. The fear that someone like Campbell is actually healed and can replace DW45 and maybe even rise to LVD level. Or Johnson is the next great Cover corner.
I agree with Joe that the draft can’t get here soon enough. I get the NFL’s reasoning to keep interest in an otherwise dead period but enough is enough for me.
And in honesty I’ve always viewed the draft at a major crapshoot anyway. How did all those teams who passed on Sapp feel?
I’m from the great HOF GM Bobby Beathard school of thought. He was part of seven SB teams.
“I don’t know,” he said of whether a team could succeed today with those methods. “I think people think first round draft choices are so valuable and I always looked at it as they were valuable, it depended on what the rest of the draft was like. If it was a great draft filled with players in later rounds after the first round, I was certainly willing to trade down. It wasn’t because of the money that was given to a first round player.”
He also looked at the charts with odds of success for each.
Perspective – 1st round 50/50 2nd round 33% 3rd round 16% 4th – 8%
5th on down less than a 1 in 20 chance.
Some math whiz here can do the numbers and tell me where the sweet spot is.
April 19th, 2025 at 9:01 am
It takes about 3-4 1st-round picks to guarantee a 90% success rate, while 5 2nd-round picks or 16 3rd-round picks are needed to achieve the same. This makes multiple second-round picks far more valuable than one first-round pick, as it provides more opportunities to land quality players. By trading back, teams maximize their chances of success without losing significant value.
April 19th, 2025 at 9:08 am
Beathard didn’t have the luxury of the rookie cap that’s enjoyed now, those 1st rd. picks were usually the last and most costly to sign but I believe he’s right about it being 50/50 on a 1st turning out to be the player picked at that position. But the NFL has changed a lot since then, seems like the colleges are turning into the NFL’s paid farm system. Either the colleges are becoming like the pro’s in their play and coaching of these young players or vice versa. I believe there is room for some of that “old school” approach in the draft, certainly this years.
And just when we heard that running backs weren’t valued as much we have last year, which proved that statement wrong. The RB’s musta heard that and got pissed.
April 19th, 2025 at 9:34 am
If we go secondary in the first round. It better be for the Safery out of South Carolina.
April 19th, 2025 at 9:49 am
I tried to understand this and could not:
“It takes about 3-4 1st-round picks to guarantee a 90% success rate, while 5 2nd-round picks or 16 3rd-round picks are needed to achieve the same.”
And even if I someone gives a better explanation, is this just the author hypothesis, or is it based upon some NFL study?
For instance in 2021 draft, 10 guys in the 1st round made the pro bowl, 3 guys in the 2nd round, and 2 guys in the 3rd round.
Now if your criteria is just startable players than without stats, I would clearly agree with the post — you are pretty likely to get 2 startable players if you trade your 1st round pick for a 2nd and 3rd round pick.
But you have a greater likelihood of missing that Jared Verse from last year.
In 2022, 7 guys in the 1st round, 4 guys in the 2nd round and no guys in the 3 round.
In 2023, 8 guys in the 1st round, 3 guys in the 2nd round (1 as returner), and no guys in the 3rd round.
Last year, 6 guys in the 1st round made the pro bowl their rookie season, no guys in the 2nd or 3rd round.
So while I believe that the Bucs may be considering to trade down this year, I am not sure that there is a clear correlation that trading down is statistically the smart move.
April 19th, 2025 at 9:59 am
If we want a ball hawk this guy is the man. Watch his film if he can stay healthy he will be a superstar.
April 19th, 2025 at 10:09 am
I got you…
Imagine you’re on a game show. You’re trying to get **a golden ticket** hidden inside eggs. Golden ticket = a great football player.
Here’s how it works:
– **1st-round eggs** = Big, shiny golden eggs. Fancy.
– **2nd-round eggs** = Still good eggs, not as shiny.
– **3rd-round eggs** = Regular ol’ farm eggs. Nothing special.
Now, to get a **90% chance** of finding a golden ticket inside:
– You need **3-4 shiny eggs (1st-round picks)**
– OR **5 decent eggs (2nd-round picks)**
– OR **16 plain eggs (3rd-round picks)**
So even though shiny eggs look cool, you can get **more eggs overall** by trading them for smaller ones.
More eggs = more chances to crack open a golden ticket.
**Smart teams say:**
“Why gamble on 1 fancy egg, when I can grab 5 or 16 and almost guarantee I get something awesome?”
That’s the idea. Quantity + decent quality = better odds.
April 19th, 2025 at 10:14 am
This is all based on historical analysis of past draft picks and their success rates—it’s not just random nonsense I made up. Look at StPeteBucsFan’s original breakdown of success odds by round. The numbers clearly show how the chances of landing a quality player increase with multiple picks, especially in the second round. It’s a strategy backed by data, not opinion.
April 19th, 2025 at 10:19 am
Emmanwori is the obvious pick. He can play OLB if needed. A lot of versatility to go with size and speed. Second round OK to pick up an EDGE/LB like Jack Sawyer. This class is very deep with CB’s. Bucs will start the year with 4 new defensive players from Washington game. The team has already added via subtraction of guys like Tryon-Shinka and Whitehead.
April 19th, 2025 at 10:33 am
Really Joe I’m not feeling either of them. Ones the next Dean and the other could reinjure that shoulder as soon as he gets a chance to play later this season. It would be nice to start a season with our whole team on the field. Let’s skip the inj, I don’t want to spell it out. Terrible subject. Let’s Do It Again Jason Licht!! Go Bucs!!!
April 19th, 2025 at 10:36 am
Sitting on a park bench………….
Cheers.
April 19th, 2025 at 10:40 am
obviously hammy is still hurt or he would run 40-PASS
April 19th, 2025 at 10:43 am
I like Cobee Bryant, Zah Frazier, Upton Stout late. Honestly, Nohl Williams has impressed me lately more tape I watch—he reminds me of Dean, who is a good player when he’s available.
April 19th, 2025 at 12:24 pm
Stay at #19. With all they stats above, I’ll take he 50-50 pick to ball out. Could miss on both 2nd rounders, also. Then we have nothing.
April 19th, 2025 at 12:29 pm
Yeah my gut is thinking Emmanwori is well…
RAS score has him top rated safety EVERRRRR!
Licht likes to chase high RAS score athletes and Bowles is a safety guru since he played the position….
This kid is like 6’3” and can get to wherever to he need to be on the field…
It’s all about football intelligence for this kid. Does he have it or not?
He could play a “star” position and line up all over the place eventually….
Also he would be a for sure starter as we have a hole in the 2nd safety position right now. Tykee Smith needs to stay as the slot corner. I thought he did some good things there last year..
I think he’s gonna be the one to watch here…
April 19th, 2025 at 12:32 pm
Also we should make the trade for Jalen Ramsey….
Give Miami Jamel Dean for him….
We have some cap space that we can Ramsey into…
Even now, he is a better corner than Dean and much more aggressive and better ball skills…
Dean & Emmanwori then we cooking with gas in the secondary!!
April 19th, 2025 at 12:33 pm
Oops, I mean RAMSEY and Emmanwori, lol
April 19th, 2025 at 12:35 pm
Thanks Josh for the further explanation.
St Pete Buc was using an old Bobby Beathard probability.
You instead used a frequency that did not align with the Beathard probability.
Let’s look further:
1st round:
Beathard – probability 50 percent — means every 2 picks per quality player.
Josh — Frequency 3.5 — That frequency from 2 to your 3.5 is clearly different.
2nd round:
Beathard — probability 33 percent — means every 3 picks per quality player.
Josh — Frequency 5 picks. The frequency from Beathard 3 to your 5.
3rd round:
Beathard — probability 16 percent — means every 6 picks per quality player.
Josh — Frequency 16 picks. That frequency difference from 6 to 16.
My math degree is over 40 years ago, maybe I am wrong — that’s the way I see the math.
Overall — I have been wanting the Bucs to trade down this year — but that’s only because I have been doing mock drafts and do not know the individual grades they have on players and how the Bucs think they fit their system.
I will probably be happy if they trade down.
Sorry for another long email. It is who I tend to be.
April 19th, 2025 at 1:01 pm
I understand and while it’s often said that first-round NFL draft picks are a 50/50 proposition, I feel that statistic becomes skewed when positional value is taken into account. Certain positions, like offensive and defensive linemen—especially offensive tackles—tend to have significantly lower bust rates than others, such as quarterbacks or wide receivers. This is partly because offensive tackles, even if they fail to secure a left tackle spot, often retain value by shifting to right tackle or guard, making them more likely to contribute at the pro level. As a result, the traditional “50/50” success rate oversimplifies the draft’s true dynamics. My data analysis attempted to account for these positional anomalies by adjusting for the inherent value and versatility of certain positions, giving a more accurate picture of actual hit rates across different roles.
April 19th, 2025 at 1:50 pm
I’m leaning no on Campbell and Johnson at 19 due to the injuries. I’d like an immediate impact player at 19 but would strongly prefer a trade back for more picks. No injured players in the first and trade back for fair value are always draft rules of mine but they are rules to adhere to in the draft more than most due to the dearth of real talent past the first few picks and the depth of talent running all the way into day three.
Rather than just look at the bald percentages I’m focusing on the analytical and prognostication skills of Licht and Co. in recent drafts as far as what is going to determine the rate of success of the players picked next week and I’m feeling we can trust them to beat the averages and means of statistics. It sure is a treat to have a front office we can trust.
April 19th, 2025 at 3:10 pm
Bucsfan1988,
Hope the Bucs do what is obvious and nail down a guy who could be Troy Polomeu in the center of Bucs defense. I am guessing Licht gets it and if Emmanwori still there at 19, he is our man. An EDGE/LB like Jack Sawyer might still be available in round 2. Plenty of CB’s in rounds 3-4. Would be happy with an OT in round 5. There are plenty of big ones in college ball these days. Even nicer if the OT could swing to G or Center.
April 19th, 2025 at 3:39 pm
Geno and Josh
THANKS for some very interesting discussion. And no Geno I’ve never read a post of yours that was too long. You eschew hyperbole and personal insult and pull the old Jack Webb…”Just the facts mam”.
April 19th, 2025 at 7:23 pm
I’m leaning on an empty bottle of scotch . Sad.
April 19th, 2025 at 9:31 pm
If your defense has problems because the corners play soft why do you draft a guy with speed questions?
April 19th, 2025 at 11:02 pm
There are a lot of potential starters and great rotational players in rounds 1-5 this year.
Why would you (1) Take a player with off-field issues, (2) Take a player with injuries or (3) take a player with only a 1 year track record, when the team has multiple needs and can pivot to an equally good player without those issues and with a solid multi-year track record?
Now taking a flyer in the 6th (no 6th pick this year without a trade down) or 7th round or signing as an UDFA that is the time to swing for the fences while realizing the chance of success is very low.
Hard pass on 1st round candidates Johnson, Campbell, Green, Pierce, McMillan, Emmanwori and possibly Nolen
April 20th, 2025 at 1:05 am
You got me Joe. I will change my previous comment. Jihaad prob gonna be the pick if he’s there, otherwise DL.
April 20th, 2025 at 1:39 am
Gipper, wouldn’t compare Emmanwori to Palamaulu….
This dude is Cam Chancellor 2.0 but with 4.38 speed!!!
Heat sinking missile that will lay the smack down…
Bowles would have a hay-day drawing up plays for this dude.
Could definitely see him in an “ultra-back” or “star” position eventually…
If he has the mental makeup, likes to watch film, and is a sponge, you can NOT pass this guy up!!