Bucs’ Playoff Probability Jumps
December 16th, 2024
The Bucs hold the No. 3 NFC playoff seed if the postseason ended today.
But it doesn’t.
While Bucs home playoff tickets are on sale now, Tampa Bay still has hurdles to climb to get a ticket to the dance.
With their clobbering of the Chargers yesterday, the Bucs’ bumped their postseason probability to 87 percent, per the New York Times/The Athletic data nerds.
They’ve even got strong Wild Card chances if the unthinkable happens: Atlanta winning its final four games (including tonight) and the Bucs losing one game to either the Cowboys, Panthers or Saints.
If that scenario happens, both the Bucs and Falcons would finish with a 10-7 record and Atlanta would win the NFC South by virtue of beating the Bucs twice in the regular season.
However, the Washington Commanders (9-5) still must play the Eagles, Falcons and Cowboys. So if the Falcons beat the Commanders and the Bucs and Commanders each finish 10-7, then the Bucs would own a Wild Card tiebreaker on Washington after beating them on opening day.
The magic formula is simple, of course.
Just win.
December 16th, 2024 at 7:59 am
I love this team and I love these guys. But I still have PTSD from the 2010s. I don’t want to see them drop 1 of these upcoming games. Todd Bowles will prove a lot to me if he can keep this team focused and avoid the adrenaline dump and a loss to one of these upcoming “easy” teams.
December 16th, 2024 at 8:03 am
Joes, how would the tie breaker go if it is a 3 way log jam such as Tampa, Washington and one (or maybe even 2 from AZ, Seattle and the Rams) of the NFC West teams all at 10-7, best conference record and then the common opponents?
December 16th, 2024 at 8:05 am
Obviously the win and the manner of the victory are outstanding , but just maybe Bucs did not add to the injury list as well? Getting healthier in december is huge.
December 16th, 2024 at 8:19 am
If the Falcons lose one more game it should be the Bucs division. Can’t see the Bucs losing 2 out of these next 3
December 16th, 2024 at 8:28 am
Just win out and f@ck the tie breakers!
December 16th, 2024 at 8:36 am
Go Raiders
December 16th, 2024 at 8:36 am
for the last couple of months tons of Doubters were wrighting here and on social media against Bowles….Where are they now?
Lesson number 1 in life , dont eat your dinner before breakfast!!!!!
Even today when everything looks beautiful and bright, wait till the season ends to make your passionate and probably not very clever observations about this player or this coach….
Better to think with your brain than your heart….
December 16th, 2024 at 9:46 am
I will revel all week long. This was a milestone game for the season. I will analyze the next game later in this week. We fans deserve to celebrate.
Go Bucs!
December 16th, 2024 at 9:49 am
Crazy how much can change over next 3 weeks. Home against vikings or packers will be a huge challenge
December 16th, 2024 at 11:26 am
As a consistent Bowles skeptic I’m thrilled to be proven wrong with the big win yesterday. Bowles and co did a great job having the team ready to play in a big big game. Will there be a letdown coming the last 3 weeks?
Hoping this is a big stepping stone for a 4th straight division championship.
December 16th, 2024 at 12:07 pm
I’m still here zzBucs. Why is everyone, now, coming out saying Bowles is great and his detractors are quiet? There is a lot of season left. What will you say if the Saints or Panthers come into Tampa and knock us off the division or outta the playoffs?
Have your opinion and stand by it, saying what you are now is just as bad as the others calling for Bowles head after we go on a losing streak.
Once again for the record, I respect Bowles and how the players love him. I do not think he can win tight games against the best in the league and you need to do that to win a SB. If we can’t win a SB with our HC, what are we even doing? I hope I am wrong but the proof is in the pudding so far. You better believe I will call for a new HC again if the Bucs don’t at least put up a good divisional round game again. This team is better than last year with Coen at OC, no excuse (injuries are kinda but not enough as evidenced yesterday) to not take a step forward. As fans we know what this roster is capable of, we can’t accept less than what I am talking about. We are in a potential SB window.
December 16th, 2024 at 12:10 pm
If Bowles wins a SB this year or next for our Bucs, I will happily eat crow and bow at the feet of Bowles supporters. I will be just as happy as the rest of you. I just want the Bucs to win.
December 16th, 2024 at 12:19 pm
If you wanna say, the Bucs will load up the D this offseason and hopefully have better injury luck so Bowles could have a 2020/2021 SB winning type D again and with that, can get the job done… well I would have a tough time arguing cause I see this team headed that way.
But what does that mean for the offense? Is Coen still our OC cause if he’s not, I am way less confident Bowles can do it even with a stacked D.
December 16th, 2024 at 12:35 pm
Whatever it takes to keep Cohen in place you do it. Name him the hire apparent when Bowles retires like Arians did for him! Keep this group together!
December 16th, 2024 at 12:40 pm
I believe this season’s success is due to Coen’s offense. Until these last 4 games our defense has been terrible. I’m glad to see the improvement but losing Coen next year would hurt a lot more than losing Bowles. Bowles is a .500 coach. Always has been and always will be. Numbers don’t lie. .500 is average in case you didn’t know that
December 16th, 2024 at 1:15 pm
Just read that Maxx Crosby is out for the game tonight. That is really bad news. Maybe Pierce can rally the troops with a “win one for the Gipper” speech. I was thinking Maxx would crush any resurgent confidence that Cousins might develop.
It would be so sweet for the Fowlclowns to lose tonight, and for them to skate away on the thin ice of a new day.
December 16th, 2024 at 1:21 pm
A win a Dallas next week all but clinches the division with the stinking Panthers and the Aint’s the last to games at home.
December 16th, 2024 at 1:24 pm
Hey Buccos! 8-6 is not .500….in case you didn’t know that
December 16th, 2024 at 1:58 pm
I’m talking about his career. And I was being kind
December 16th, 2024 at 3:43 pm
let’s just hope they don’t get too high from this win (as we’ve seen in the past) and then lay an egg on Sunday night…