Will Deep-Shot Fears Doom Tampa Bay?
December 14th, 2024
Two-sided approach.
A standout defensive coordinator in NFL history once issued advice to a Buccaneers’ playcaller and head coach, and it stuck.
The advice was simple: “Throw deep.”
The order was given to Dirk Koetter decades ago by Marvin Lewis, the architect of the Ravens’ iconic defense from 1996-2001 and the former Bengals head coach.
Lewis kept it simple. Throwing deep terrorizes defense and offenses don’t do it enough.
Enter Todd Bowles. Those who scrutinize the Bucs pass defense know it’s a unit obsessed with not getting beat deep. Bowles’ defensive backs generally do great job with that — while decent quarterbacks carve them up short to a too-often painful degree.
Now enter Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen. He’s largely pulled the plug on the Bucs taking deep shots this season. Hey, it’s working well, but for how long?
It’s somewhat ironic that Bowles is so dialed into his defense not being beaten by long throws as his playcaller feels no urge to throw deep.
Tomorrow against the Chargers (8-5), the Bucs (7-6) will face a team severely lacking deep-threat weapons. QB Justin Herbert has just five completions of 40 or more yards this season after only four last year.
Does that mean Bowles will tighten his soft zone and not worry about the long ball? Will Coen test the Chargers’ elite pass defense that surely won’t be looking for Mike Evans or Trey Palmer to run a go route?
Joe has a sneaky feeling that a deep ball will be the key play in tomorrow’s game.
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December 14th, 2024 at 3:21 pm
I don’t understand this fanstation with wanting to throw deep when Baker sucks at it. I’m all about having an ultra aggressive downfield offense – it’s why I loved Winston, he was a great fit for that, didn’t care if he threw an INT 45 yards down the field on 3rd and 12 – but Baker isn’t that guy. Baker is very good at moving in the pocket, keeping plays alive and making short accurate throws. But Bakers accuracy goes to hell once you get past 10 yards or so down the field. He’s got plenty of arm, so I don’t know what the issue is, but we have a very large sample size at this point. Doesn’t of course mean Baker can’t make any of those throws, he’s accurate at times, but it’s just not something you should bank on. With that said, of course you should still take a few shots just to keep the defense honest. Obviously Mike should be the main target, but even a scrub like Palmer should get a look or two a game on a fly route.
But the offense, when they’ve at least had Evans on the field, has not been an issue at all and puts up plenty of points. What I like so much about Coen, is that he’s been very willing to adjust the offense to his players skills, or lack of talent (Sucke comes to mind), and I think he’s done a fantastic job of seeing how much better Baker is when he gets rid of the ball quickly, and has mostly stuck to that while it works.
December 14th, 2024 at 3:48 pm
you’re killing me joe hahaha. imagine how successful this team could be if it adjusted to each opponent! sorry though, bowles won’t do it. you are our only hope as far as getting this message to him — can you send a crow or something?
December 14th, 2024 at 4:10 pm
It’s not up to Coen per se. He can call a deep shot but if Baker doesn’t pull the trigger then it doesn’t matter. I honestly think Baker knows his downfield accuracy isn’t good so he either holds the ball for an intermediate throw, throws short, eats a sack or runs. No in between really.
On YouTube check out the highs and lows of Baker vs the Raiders. It’s a detailed breakdown of how Baker can hold the ball at times miss downfield options. But later in the game, throw strikes, it’s maddening at times.
I don’t expect many deep balls from the Bucs this game, not with that Chargers defense. We’ll see…
December 14th, 2024 at 4:17 pm
Deep shot on play action, run the damn ball guys
December 14th, 2024 at 4:24 pm
Ryan Neal has been elevated…. not good. Not good at all.
December 14th, 2024 at 4:34 pm
Baker has the arm to make any NFL throw. It’s his MO that and his leadership skills. We all have weaknesses. If these dumba… interceptions continue we will be shortly exposed. But many QBs let a turnover affect the rest of the game. Baker doesn’t dwell on that in fact his game gets stronger. The best QBs finish strong and win playoff games. We should win tomorrow by 10 points or more and make it convincing. Because we have a better team and in my opinion an elite NFL QB.
December 14th, 2024 at 4:48 pm
I am a big, big fan of going deep. Brady may be the best whoever has done it. We did it quite a bit with several guys. But not with Mayfield.
Agree with Rod about Mayfield but not about the interception king. I think we don’t go deep because Coen knows that’s a very, very low probability throw with Baker. Simple as that. Yes he has the arm strength. But simply misses guys as bad as I would.
December 14th, 2024 at 4:49 pm
BTW Go Navy
December 14th, 2024 at 4:50 pm
Bee, you may be on to something and it’s something I’ve sort of thought as well. Baker won’t throw it because HE knows it’s unlikely.
December 14th, 2024 at 5:01 pm
Mike looked fine hurdling that defender last week. Gonna have to chuck a couple deep this week I think. See what kinda pass pro we get but should be good. Baker usually throws high on deeper balls, shouldn’t be an issue for Mike.
If Evans stays healthy he is gonna go off one or two of these upcoming weeks. Dallas has lost Diggs for the season, no more Lattimore with the Saints… get Mike 100 this week and I bet he continues his streak!
December 14th, 2024 at 5:05 pm
Betting with Buddha: YTD: 25-22-0
Chicago Bears +7
Saints +7.5
Colts +4
Giants +16.5
December 14th, 2024 at 5:06 pm
Only thing that dooms Tampa is a HC prone to losing!….
December 14th, 2024 at 5:06 pm
Jack Burton Mercer “simply misses guys as bad as I would” Hahaha!! “BTW GO NAVY” Hahaha!!
December 14th, 2024 at 5:51 pm
Guys have to be open, on time, and with good protection for deep shots. Any one of those things breaks down just a little and deep shots are very hard to come by. Some of yall seem to think its as simple as a game of catch.
Mike has been our only deep shot receiver and that’s because he’s so good at 50/50 balls. Palmer is the only speed guy we have that can take the top off but he’s never shown himself to be a starting caliber pass catcher.
I think Liam will scheme up some long shots, to Mike, maybe J-Mac or Palmer, when/if the defense presents an advantageous look for it.
Most teams in the league these days seem to play 2 safety shells that guard against throws over the top and keep everything in front of them.
December 14th, 2024 at 6:05 pm
I predict the Chargers will take more deep shots than we do tomorrow.
Hope I’m wrong though.
December 14th, 2024 at 7:15 pm
The usual crew now bashing Baker on the long ball, don’t know what they are talking about. Since Munch and the crew have been so wrong on Baker, they have to find some way of damning a guy who is solidly in the Top 5 in NFL 2024 passing stats. In fact, coming from Munch it is really ironic since he was the prime basher of OT Skule not providing adequate pass protection. Tampa hasn’t been able to throw deep because 1) haven’t had a deep threat most of season with hamstring problems for ME13 and 2) the O line has not provided enough time for Baker to even look deep. The O line is progressing nicely and with ME healing hopefully Baker will get a chance to show off the long ball between now and the end of season. The last time Mayfield played on a team committed to the long ball was 2020 and he ranked 6 in long passing. For comparison sake Aaron Rodgers was ranked 4 in 2020. It is really interesting to read, again, the smug assurances with which these amateur NFL analysts pass off as insight. Can’t wait for Baker to once again prove the negative chorus wrong. It is easy to get the feeling that the same crew headed by the Munchman hope for the next Baker interception so they can claim some sort of weird vindication.
December 14th, 2024 at 7:27 pm
“A Bucs Fan Says:
December 14th, 2024 at 4:24 pm
Ryan Neal has been elevated…. not good. Not good at all.”
You’re telling me they couldn’t find anyone better than this guy? Doesn’t matter that he ‘knows’ Bowles’ defense – he sucks playing it.
December 14th, 2024 at 7:39 pm
As long as the offense is effective which it has been who cares if they throw deep or not? Just keep doing what works, Go Bucs!
December 14th, 2024 at 7:41 pm
If he’s afraid of deep shots from Carolina when the man coverage was actually working then uh yea he’s definitely going to play soft zone the entire game against a veteran quarterback and a better head coach
December 14th, 2024 at 8:32 pm
we dont have the personel to keep throwing deep. baker doesnt trust his options. no one can take the top off and get separation. mike can still but they always keep a safety eyeballing him so he wont and it really keeps the defense in which really makes us a one dimensional gadget team. without bucky its gonna get harder. we really need to be successful with the three back system,otton and evans. we better keep showing up w new tricks up our sleeve and the oline needs to be dominant.
December 14th, 2024 at 10:48 pm
With the success of the running game, I think a deep pass should be tried after a 8 or 9 yard 1st down. Why not send McMillen and Palmer flying past the safeties and heave one? This offense is fantastic at picking up 3rd and short.
December 14th, 2024 at 10:53 pm
Aww poor lil EZ Bake oven getting fried by the Munch and a Baker boyo comes to his rescue. Was waiting for that, it’s guaranteed to happen. Surprised all of the usual suspects haven’t made it up here