Betting The Bucs (Week 7 Edition)
October 21st, 2024
Joe had a bounce-back Week 6 and is now 6-5 on the season after a Week 1 focused on futures wagers.
Joe highlights Bucs-related lines weekly in this space and how Joe is — and is not — throwing cash around.
(Sports betting is legal in Florida but there’s only one government-regulated Florida sportsbook monopoly run by the Seminole tribe. That’s where Joe gets the betting lines.)
**Rachaad White under 27.5 yards (-110) — Joe had to do a double-take on this one. First, White is dealing with a foot injury and missed last week’s game. Second, it’s unclear if he’s even still the Bucs starting running back with the emergence of Bucky Irving. Third, the Baltimore Ravens’ run defense is the best in the NFL. Joe’s taking this under bet because nobody in the building would be surprised if White finishes with five or six carries. It’s a ♦♦♦ play for Joe.
Baker Mayfield Under 35.5 Pass Attempts (-105)
Baltimore ranks third in the NFL in time of possession and Joe thinks the Bucs want to give their blossoming run game a solid look. That 35.5 is a big number and Joe doesn’t believe the Bucs will be playing catch-up most of the night. It’s a ♦♦ play for Joe.
Bucs +4 Vs. The Ravens (-105)
The line moved to +4 today and that got Joe’s attention. Joe loves when a good home team that can score moves higher than a 3 1/2-point dog. This is a much more potent Bucs offense than the one that lost to the Ravens 27-22 in Tampa two years ago, when the Bucs failed on a late two-point conversion … a handoff to Rachaad White. It’s a ♦♦ play for Joe.
So, that’s where Joe is throwing a little cash.
Good luck!
October 21st, 2024 at 3:35 pm
Thanks for the tips! All I care about though is winning outright! LFG BUCS
October 21st, 2024 at 3:37 pm
I’ll take White over — assuming he’s actually playing, which from what I’ve read seems to be the case. White is by far your best blocking back, and your best receiving back – which means he’ll likely be out there the most. If he’s out there they’ll try to feed him the ball a bit and he’ll likely get that number, in particular in this new scheme we’re the run game is more than just running up the middle. I don’t think it will be much over, but I like the over.
I’ll take Baker over on the passes as well. As you said you can’t really run on the Ravens, and Coen has been good about taking what the defense gives you and not just running an offense to run it. So, assuming he keeps that up, I’d think we’d see the Bucs throwing the ball, a lot, and mostly short passes once again. Last week, again, Baker was 1-for-10 with 2 INTs on passes over 10 yards – so here’s the thing, just don’t throw those (unless Baker is on-fire, which can happen). But anywho, lots of short passes, means lots of attempts.
As for the line… that’s a tough one. This is a SB caliber team for sure, and anyone who isn’t a psychopath knows the Bucs have yet to fully make their case for that – but they’re getting close. So this came could be a statement game that puts the Bucs into that elite category, finally, or it could show the Bucs are right before those teams. I’d probably not play the line at all, but if I did, I’d take the Ravens. I generally like better on Bucs opponents as a hedge, so the money helps being p/o’d from the loss. But I always am happy when the Bucs win the game and I lose the bet, makes me not care about the $20 or whatever I put down.
October 21st, 2024 at 3:38 pm
If one would want to be ballsy, one could possibly take Mayfield 2+ tuddies and Godwin 7+ reception against a weak Ravens pass D
October 21st, 2024 at 3:43 pm
Win, Joe. Win, Bucs.
I would be inclined to bet the over on total points scored. It’s 50.
October 21st, 2024 at 3:45 pm
Rod, I’m with you, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of short passing to control the clock. Also as much as Bowles loves White I expect him to still get some carries if he plays, so I’m not big on that under. I’d go with a parlay on bucs passing stats and a W for 20 bucks and if I lose 20 bucks oh well, but I think it has a decent chance to pay off big- but I probably won’t just because I’ll forget we had this conversation in about 15 minutes
October 21st, 2024 at 3:50 pm
Baker has played Baltimore has thrown more than 35 passes against Baltimore 9 times in his career, he has thrown more than 35 times against them in 5 of those games and even in the games where it wasn’t over 35 times each of them were over 30.
Personally i would not be putting any money on Baker throwing less than 35.5 times especially with how poor our defence is and how good their rushing defence is.
October 21st, 2024 at 4:03 pm
RodMunch,
Nice to have you back on these pages. You have been keeping a low profile and a few of us have been worried that you went to charm school.
October 21st, 2024 at 4:19 pm
Yeah Rod I’d almost forgotten that I was a psychopath
October 21st, 2024 at 4:25 pm
JAMEL DEAN & Kam Johnson went on IR today. TRENTON GIll will punt tonight. Bucs also activated DL Earnest Brown tonight!
October 21st, 2024 at 4:27 pm
Bet Ravens and the points
Gonna be a long night for Todd Blows cover no one scheme
October 21st, 2024 at 4:30 pm
I got a sneaky suspicion the Bucs mail this one in and go all in for Atlanta next week. I have no idea what that means for those side bets, but time will tell if I’m a swami or if I’m a chump wanna be swami.
October 21st, 2024 at 4:34 pm
Dean went on IR today?
Oh my these bucs just may pull this one out….
That changes everything.
No lost planet airmen found in the tunnel😎
October 21st, 2024 at 4:35 pm
Is the White o/u for 27.5 RUSHING yards, or TOTAL yards?
Big difference…
October 21st, 2024 at 4:35 pm
I was looking at that game, and realized that the Bucs kept Jackson in check right up until Shaq went down with his season-ending injury. The Crows only had 3 point up until then. They immediately scored tds on their three possessions following the injury.
If the Bucs can get a Shaq-esque performance out of Diaby/Kancey, with Vita clogging and pushing the pocket from the middle… I like our chances.
October 21st, 2024 at 4:44 pm
^ That’s a big if, lol.
Also, WTF happened to Camarda? Just saw we activated Gill to punt again…
Frickin kickers man, they’re head cases huh?
October 21st, 2024 at 4:45 pm
Take the over with White….10 carries 26 yards & you are rich.
October 21st, 2024 at 5:21 pm
unbelievable Says:
October 21st, 2024 at 4:44 pm
^ That’s a big if, lol.
I just mean if Diaby and Kancey can combine to resemble Shaq’s disruption. I think it is quite possible… Kancey played his first NFL game in 10 months last week, and looked good.
But Jackson’s scrambling might kill us anyway.
October 21st, 2024 at 5:21 pm
I don’t bet.
October 21st, 2024 at 5:22 pm
Since we’re talking about gambling; a lot of the pros will be on the Bucs tonight. The Ravens have won 4 in a row and in the world of placing bets that lowers your odds of continuing that trend. Bucs by a field goal in a lower-scoring game than most people think 23-20
October 21st, 2024 at 5:23 pm
I like Nelson Aghalor +170 on 25+ yards, for a guy making a personal homecoming vs a soft Todd Bowles secondary.
October 21st, 2024 at 5:24 pm
White will be eased back in not thrown in against the tough Ravens. Look for Bucky to bring a little juice to the game and get the fans fired up.
October 21st, 2024 at 5:28 pm
I am not one to gamble. And now I know why. Can’t bet on emotion. Thinking that if White plays he could surprise everyone and have four or five carries. Yes, the +4 deserves the attention given. Night games worry me, but there is an energy vibe going on and the Bucs could definitely win this.
October 21st, 2024 at 5:39 pm
I see Dean got placed on IR. So he will play his usual half season. We need to draft another CB that holds up for an entire season.
October 21st, 2024 at 6:17 pm
Dean has been replaced with a Tommy Bahama lawn chair.
October 21st, 2024 at 6:56 pm
Baker +1.5 TDs, Baker over 12.5 rushing yards, Godwin over 6.5 receptions
October 22nd, 2024 at 12:01 am
3-for-3
October 22nd, 2024 at 12:06 am
Kenton Smith Says:
October 21st, 2024 at 4:19 pm
Yeah Rod I’d almost forgotten that I was a psychopath
———–
Only psychopaths thought the Bucs were on the same level as the Ravens – that proved to be 100% accurate. They are by themselves at the top of the tiers in the NFL right now.
If the Bucs didn’t have the injuries, I wouldn’t actually care too much about this game as the Ravens are just a flat out better team, and even if Baker played a perfect game, the Bucs still likely would have lost.
October 22nd, 2024 at 12:42 am
I think the Bucs wull not cover against any team with a good running QB.