Explosive Plays Good Or Bad? Depends Who Is Calculating The Numbers
October 9th, 2024
Playing with numbers.
See what a difference five yards makes?
If one is to accept explosive plays are measured as 10 yards for a run and 20 yards for a pass, the Bucs are in the middle of the pack for explosive plays (likely because the Bucs don’t often throw past 20 yards).
But combine all offensive plays that gain 15 yards or more, and suddenly, the Bucs are much more explosive.
Sam Hoppen, a data scientist at Fantasy Pros, decided to lump all plays of 15 yards into the bin of explosives. There, the Bucs offense looks powerful.
The stats outfit Football Insights measures explosive plays as 10 yards for a run and/or 20 yards for a pass. All of a sudden, they make the Bucs offense look average.
See how easily it is for someone to twist numbers to sell a point in whatever he or she is trying to sell?
Explosive play rates through Week 5 pic.twitter.com/aWdXmpDrPY
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) October 8, 2024
October 9th, 2024 at 4:43 am
Have no idea what conclusions we’re supposed to draw from that chart. Colts have the highest percentage of explosive plays (13.6%) and are ranked #1 … YET their record is 2-3, they’ve only scored 119 points in 5 games & are ranked #13 offensively.
Commanders OTOH have a more middle-of-the-pack percentage of explosive plays (11.2%) and ran #10 … YET their record is 4-1, they’ve scored a league-leading 155 points & are ranked #1 offensively.
So what’s the relationship between Fantasy Pros’ explosive plays and winning & losing? Isn’t THAT what the bettors really want to know?
October 9th, 2024 at 9:03 am
Goes to show the stats aren’t the whole story. Explosive plays make it highlights but won’t necessarily win you games. Notice the chiefs at the bottom of the pack in both categories. Never take stats at full value.
October 9th, 2024 at 9:55 am
😄 I wonder if using AI would bring clarity. … Not! 😱 😀
October 9th, 2024 at 10:30 am
We know how easy it is. Joe does it all the time.
October 9th, 2024 at 10:58 am
All stats are manipulations by definition. Except for one: wins and losses.
October 9th, 2024 at 11:00 am
DR, I’m thinking (without seeing stats on this) that some sort of offensive efficiency stat could help tell the story on the Skins. They are completing an high percentage apparently and that is very valuable even without explosion. Maybe, maybe not.
October 9th, 2024 at 11:29 am
Defense Rules, I have looked at a plethora of data in terms of rankings and there are no results that really make sense yet. Atlanta has 5 sacks, yet they haven’t allowed a 300 yd passer yet for instance. I know they have 2 GREAT safeties and get run on, but usually sacks equate to pass coverage.
Good teams are in the middle of the pack often in these rankings and bad teams are at the top in some. QB play is the closest Ive seen to showing good teams up top, yet Patrick Mahomes is in the middle and they are 5-0. Their defense is really the reason they are winning.
My point is, it is really too early for stats to show anything outstanding that just HAS to be fixed. Unless of course you look at 500 yd passing games and it spells it out clearly.
Im really worried about this season now, because IMO, it has become OBVIOUS how you play and beat the Bucs more than any other team in the NFL.
October 9th, 2024 at 11:36 am
Year to date does look powerful for the Bucs, Colts, Ravens, others.
See what you mean, Joe. Looking at only the last four games does make it twisty. We won our first game which does bump it up in comparison of our last four games; 2 wins and 2 losses. It changes the entire narrative for all teams. Some look better in their last four games.