Betting The Bucs (Week 5 Edition)
October 3rd, 2024
Joe’s pregame feature is not just a here’s-a-pick, get-your-best-bet thing. Highlighted are Bucs-related lines weekly in this space and how Joe is — and is not — throwing cash around.
Joe was 1-1 last week and is 4-2 on the season after a Week 1 focused on futures wagers.
(Sports betting is legal in Florida but there’s only one government-regulated Florida sportsbook monopoly run by the Seminole tribe, not to be confused with the PFF Tribe.)
**So the Bucs became more of an underdog as the week progressed. They’re now + 2 1/2 (-110) in Atlanta tonight. But road teams on Thursday Night Football lose at a higher rate and Joe is leery of Mike Evans’ calf injury. He’s officially off the injury report, but he was struggling on it four nights ago. If Evans needs a significant number of plays off, then the Bucs are down to Chris Godwin, Sterling Shepard and Kameron Johnson at receiver. That’s a potential game-changing reality Joe wants no part of tonight. Joe will stick with with the “Player Props.”
Baker Mayfield Over 22.5 Completions (-110)
First, Mayfield has broken 22.5 completions in 3 of 4 games this season. Second, the Bucs came out throwing often on first down against the Eagles; Tampa Bay passed on 22 of its 33 first-down plays, and Joe suspects that high rate will continue. Third, Mike Evans is below the pace he needs to hit 1,000 yards for the season, so that could mean some junkish throws to Evans late (or early). Lastly, the Falcons tackle well and swarm to the ball against the run. Their defense ranks 8th in yards-per-carry allowed. So Joe thinks it’ll be a pass-heavy Bucs night. It’s a ♦♦♦ play for Joe.
Bijan Robinson (Over 3.5 Receptions) (-140)
So this is about attacking the Bucs and Falcons running back Bijan Robinson making things happen in space. Lost on the stat sheet last week was Robinson catching a dumpoff behind the line of scrimmage and making multiple Saints players miss for a touchdown. It was wiped out by a penalty. Joe also suspects Atlanta sees the Bucs as vulnerable to tackling on the outside. Robinson has broken 3.5 catches in 3 of 4 games this season. It’s a ♦♦ play for Joe. It would have been 3 diamonds, but Robinson was on the injury report earlier this week with a hamstring tweak.
So, that’s where Joe is throwing a little cash.
Good luck!
October 3rd, 2024 at 4:49 pm
Enjoying this feature very much. Not really a gambler but since Hard Rock makes it so convenient I do enjoy adding a little excitement to my Bucs cheering.
Feeling pretty good about the prop bet Bucs O/U for wins this season 7.5
A win tonight means they are more than halfway with waaaay more than half a season left to finish the deal. Plus I was hoping to be 2-2 at this point with perhaps stealing the Eagles game.
October 3rd, 2024 at 5:00 pm
I like Bake over 22.5 completions
October 3rd, 2024 at 5:02 pm
Joe Tryon Shoyinka is +500 to record a half a sack and -800 to record 0 sacks.
Those odds might be the most damming description of his talent level than any of us could write or say.
To bet $100 to win $500 for a single sack is downright embarrassing for a pass rusher. That’s like saying, “We in Vegas think you have absolutely no talent whatsoever.”
October 3rd, 2024 at 5:05 pm
Big Mike will play,,, we will win and then the boys get a few well deserved days off
October 3rd, 2024 at 5:09 pm
Betting makes losing fun.
October 3rd, 2024 at 5:28 pm
I’m taking the over on the numbers I see on Shepard, this seems like an easy way to take someone’s money as the line is:
Which are Shepard 20.5 yards, and receptions, 2.5.
Then again, Shepard could pull a Palmer and go out after the first series with injury. But I’d take my chances.
As for the game, this is, traditionally, a game the Bucs get embarrassed in. With so many injuries, I’m not sure if they can pull another rabbit out of the hat. The Eagles are a very very poorly coached team that failed to adjust to what the Bucs were doing with the quick passing (trying to negate the incredibly poor play of Sucke), but I just can’t see the Falcons sitting back, 10 yards off the LOS and letting that happen over and over again – and if Baker has to hold the ball for any length of time, it’s not going to be good since you’d be better off with a bag of sand at RT over Sucke.
But someone claimed Baker is 4-0 on TNF, and perhaps that offsets the Bucs horrific record vs the Falcons on TNF.
I hope for the best, but just preparing myself for the worst.
October 3rd, 2024 at 5:33 pm
Just for fun, not betting on these…
But I’d take Baker over the 22.5 completions. I think Coppertop, after last week, has learned the lesson that with Sucke at RT you can not hold the ball and you have to get quick passes. Even if it doesn’t work as well as last week (I doubt we get all the broken tackles and cushion) I still think he’ll have a bunch of short attempts which are high complete rates. The only thing that might concern me is if the Falcons just get the ball and just run the ball and the Bucs can’t get it back. This is a close one, which is why I wouldn’t bet it.
Bijan Robinson – over 3.5 Receptions, I agree again, which is kind of boring, but yeah, I think the Falcons will watch the tape and see that running up the middle isn’t the greatest thing to do with Vita in there, but if you match-up Bijan on that garbage LB named Britt, he’s going to be open 100 out of 100 times,and they’ll try to get that match-up and get some passes to him. Also, of course they’ll run wide as well,but they might do some swing passes, screens, etc, anything to get Robinson in a one-on-one situation with Britt.
October 3rd, 2024 at 5:46 pm
Just finished watching this must see episode…
You all gotta check it out. You’ll be rollin
October 3rd, 2024 at 6:04 pm
Jambalaya in the crock, beer on ice. We’re going to have a little party out here in the Oklahoma Ozarks tonight. When I went to Detroit last year’s playoffs I said if they keep that team together they’ll be as good as anyone. Tonight will be the beginning of their coming out party. They already are as good as anyone in the NFL this year. And 6 weeks from now everyone is gonna know it too.
October 3rd, 2024 at 6:04 pm
I picked Sterling over 20.5 yards, Sterling over 2.5 receptions, and Irving over 43.5 yards in a 3 leg parlay.
October 3rd, 2024 at 6:17 pm
LOL JA, it’s spot on re: JTS.
October 3rd, 2024 at 6:23 pm
I would have guestimated the Bucs as 3.5 point favorites. Atlanta might emerge as a quality team, they have some interesting pieces. But they haven’t shown it yet, and if anything Tampa Bay has just as much if not more momentum.
On the prop bet side, I’d pick the over on Baker’s 22.5 completions.
October 3rd, 2024 at 6:40 pm
The matchup:
BOWLES vs. RAHEEM
DUMB & DUMBER get to go up against each other.
October 3rd, 2024 at 6:57 pm
lol. Dumb and Dumber. 😂. Think Coen helps Bowles. We will see if Coen can come up with a good gameplan against the dirty birds.
October 3rd, 2024 at 7:12 pm
Take the Plan 9 bet just for fun. He may fire his super booster rocket tonight.
October 3rd, 2024 at 7:16 pm
i’m a homer tonight…
i’m going bucs 27-20……..or maybe bucs 27-23
October 3rd, 2024 at 7:25 pm
Can I just say? Prime live sucks. Horrible quality.
October 3rd, 2024 at 7:33 pm
atlanta starting linebacker out nfc defensive player of the week bucky could have a nice game
October 3rd, 2024 at 7:35 pm
My new favorite column! Even if I don’t agree with the picks, it gives me something to think about! Don’t know anything about Robinson, so won’t touch. But Baker over 22 is may e worth the risk. Let’s see
October 3rd, 2024 at 7:38 pm
I think the Falcons game plan is to run, run and control the clock. I’m not sure about Baker 22.5 completions.
October 3rd, 2024 at 7:42 pm
Hey Joes: Where’s the live game thread?
October 3rd, 2024 at 7:46 pm
This game is scary. 10 years ago Thursday night in Atlanta… was ugly ugly