Betting The Bucs (Week 3 Edition)
September 22nd, 2024
It’s time.
Joe’s weekly feature isn’t just a here’s-a-pick, get-your-best-bet thing.
Joe will highlight Bucs-related lines each week in this space and how Joe is — and is not — throwing money around.
So Joe split last Sunday after a Week 1 focused on futures.
(Sports betting is legal in Florida but there’s only one government-regulated Florida sportsbook run by the Seminole tribe, not to be confused with the PFF Tribe.)
**It’s an emotion-control week for Joe against Denver. Joe is confident the Bucs should thump the struggling Broncos by a couple of scores. However, games are controlled in the trenches and the Bucs are down Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey at defensive tackle, in addition to Luke Goedeke at right tackle. Those are the kinds of personnel losses that can keep a game close. Denver might actually be able to run the ball, which could lead to them posting 20 points like Washington did. Bucs are -6 (-115). Be careful. “This Joe” absolutlely is thinking blowout, but will not cough up the cash. …Tampa Bay is -275 to straight up win. That means a $20 bet would return a profit of only $7.27.
**Bucky Irving over 31.5 rushing yards (-115)
As discussed on the Ira Kaufman Podcast, the Bucs will be over-committed to the run today. Why? Because they’re salivating to get that run game going. It was an offseason focus that still exists at One Buc Palace. That should mean at least a few more carries than usual. Also, keep in mind Todd Bowles wants his defense off the field as much as possible after running up 83 snaps in Detroit last week. Rachaad White has a mild groin issue that the Bucs will keep in mind. He’ll start at running back, but Joe doesn’t expect the Bucs to use White to close out the game (if that scenario arises). Irving and the over is a ♦♦♦ pick. Joe would very surprised if Irving doesn’t get at least 9 carries.
**Cade Otton Over 2.5 catches (+125)
Cade Otton caught 3 or more balls in 7 games last season (41 percent). However, Joe is the kind of bettor who likes to roll with information. It was no joke when offensive coordinator Liam Coen apologized to Cade Otton after last Sunday’s game. Otton has just 1 yard receiving this year, and the message from Coen to Otton was that the No. 1 tight end is very important to the team and many more touches are coming his way. Joe feels great about Otton getting 3 catches today, but it’s only a ♦♦ pick for Joe because, well, throwing a lot of cash at Otton has inherent risk.
So, now you know where Joe is throwing a little cash. So many other pregame wagers on the board are tempting. But Joe prefers logic over temptation when it comes to the gameday wallet.
September 22nd, 2024 at 11:11 am
Thanks Joes!
September 22nd, 2024 at 11:15 am
The one I heard was a prop bet of McMillan getting over 70 yards a 10 to 1 odds bet.
Seemed like a good risk to me. Surtain on Evans. Slide secondary coverage on Godwin and McMillian getting over 70 years appears more like a 1 in 5 chance than 1 in 10 to me. But what do I know?
September 22nd, 2024 at 11:21 am
How about YaYa with over .5 sacks? He has been top 10 in pressures this year and facing an undrafted backup
September 22nd, 2024 at 11:25 am
Love the new segment Joe!
September 22nd, 2024 at 11:29 am
I think Baker at over 10.5 rushing yards is an interesting pick.
September 22nd, 2024 at 11:32 am
Joe … ‘ It was no joke when offensive coordinator Liam Coen apologized to Cade Otton after last Sunday’s game. Otton has just 1 yard receiving this year, and the message from Coen to Otton was that the No. 1 tight end is very important to the team and many more touches are coming his way.’
Otton through 2 games has been targeted 4 times … and has 1 catch. And if I remember right, that was more of a short shovel pass than anything else (went for 5 yards). Color me unimpressed. If I was Coen, rahter than apologize to Otton, I would’ve told him that more targets would be coming his way once he learns how to block better.
September 22nd, 2024 at 11:34 am
Joe … “This Joe” absolutely is thinking blowout, but will not cough up the cash’.
Hmmm, so you’re 100% confident in a blowout, but the other 10% of you says ‘Don’t bet the farm on it’? Got it Joe.
September 22nd, 2024 at 12:00 pm
Be careful about Baker over 10.5 , because when Baker is sacked it is negative rushing yards.
September 22nd, 2024 at 12:04 pm
What’s the over/under on Cade Otton “patty cakes” blocks? Patty cakes blocks are the opposite of pancake blocks, when it looks like someone is playing touch football.
September 22nd, 2024 at 12:06 pm
Never bet the farm on anything , because you live on the farm. Parlaying multiple underdogs that are “LIVE” together is a wonderful way to win nicely with minimal risk. Friday night I parlayed Stanford with Illinois and San Jose St. playing Stanford and Illinois on the Money Line to straight up win and took the 13 on San Jose. I wagered 20 and returned almost 600.00.
September 22nd, 2024 at 12:11 pm
I like the Baker over 10.5 rushing yards. (sacks don’t count against rushing yards in the NFL)
September 22nd, 2024 at 12:12 pm
I don’t have too much faith in Cade Otton in this offense. The TE has to block in this offense. The Bucs carries 4 TEs, and the 4 combine is less productive than Gronk
In other words,
The Bucs need an all- around TE
September 22nd, 2024 at 12:27 pm
Bucky for the Bucks and Bucs….sounds good to me.
September 22nd, 2024 at 12:40 pm
Love the editions!
Not a gambler, yet I do enjoy your summaries and the comments.
September 22nd, 2024 at 12:41 pm
Go Eagles!
September 22nd, 2024 at 12:46 pm
Today is the equinox if that means anything.
September 22nd, 2024 at 1:03 pm
I think Otton will get at least 5 targets and probably a TD. Evans will be covered well by Surtain and Godwin will be doubled a lot. Otton and JMac will need to ball out.
September 22nd, 2024 at 2:51 pm
Well those player prop bets were good! Thanks!