Todd Bowles 1, Data Nerds 0
September 16th, 2024
So after a Chris Godwin gain of 19 yards on 3rd-and-22 yesterday, Bucs head coach Todd Bowles had a decision to make.
Go for it on 3rd-and-3 at the Lions’ 37 yard line n the first quarter, or line up for a 55-yard field goal.
The data crowd would tell you that converting a first-down on 4th-and-3 is successful at about a 48 percent rate in the NFL. And Joe suspects that rate is a tick higher at that position the field in question.
Bucs kicker Chase McLaughlin? He was 8-of-9 in a Bucs uniform kicking from 50 or more yards. But 55 yards is longer than most tries and the Lions’ maniacal crib isn’t necessarily the easiest place to long-snap a football.
Joe heard the data crowd on social media barking for Bowles to go for the first down. A
fter all, field goals were not going to be good enough to beat the Lions (allegedly).
Joe doesn’t know what advice from the Bucs’ analytics whisperer was in Todd Bowles’ ear, but Bowles trotted out McLaughlin, who made the 55-yarder with ease. That took the air out of the loud crowd after Lions edge rusher Aiden Hutchinson exploded for his second sack of the game on that drive.
Joe confesses to wanting Bowles to go for the first down, too. Joe wrongly figured the Bucs would need three or four touchdowns to beat Detroit.
In the end, it was a “W” for Bowles, McLaughlin and the Bucs.
Ira Kaufman Talks All Things Victory In Detroit, The Great, The Good And The Nitpicking, And More
September 16th, 2024 at 1:35 pm
Bowles lucked out yesterday and confirmed he’s not a high level coach when it comes to game management.
You will never see a fake punt and multiple 4th down attempts by a Bowles led team. He’s too conservative for the modern NFL. Bucs will always be a 7 to 9 win team with his sleepy nature.
September 16th, 2024 at 1:37 pm
“First Name Greatest Says:”
Doesnt it get embarrassing being wrong so often?
September 16th, 2024 at 1:51 pm
First Name Greatest Says
^^^^
I haven’t been a huge Bowles fan but it takes 3 years for a coach to get his players for his system. We’re in year 3. I love this team. They are going to be tough to beat.
Tough to hate Bowles resume: 2x NFCS Champ. NFCS Champs last year while eating $84M in dead cap. Crushed PHI in the playoffs. Just beat Detroit with 1/2 defensive starters.
That takes pretty good coaching. It’s time to come around.
September 16th, 2024 at 1:52 pm
The Bucs are 8-2 during their last 10 games. This includes 3 wins over playoff teams. There’s not many NFL coaches with a better record than Todd Bowles in that span!!
September 16th, 2024 at 1:52 pm
Process over results, etc
September 16th, 2024 at 1:54 pm
Todd Bowles did a great job yesterday. The defense came through when most needed. Keep in mind that Detroit has the best O line in the NFL and yet the defense responded. The 3rd down pass was probably a mistake because it stopped the clock. Would have rather seen Baker fake pass and bootleg the other way. Notwithstanding a hostile crowd and far too many injuries, the team came through beautifully yesterday.
September 16th, 2024 at 1:55 pm
First Name Greatest Says:
September 16th, 2024 at 1:35 pm
Bowles lucked out yesterday and confirmed he’s not a high level coach when it comes to game management.
You will never see a fake punt and multiple 4th down attempts by a Bowles led team. He’s too conservative for the modern NFL. Bucs will always be a 7 to 9 win team with his sleepy nature.
^^^^^^^^^
The Bucs win a game, and the psycho nut jobs who HATE to see the Bucs succeed claim it was all luck. Those defensive backs for the Bucs flying all over the field making plays, that was all luck too, right?
September 16th, 2024 at 1:56 pm
Bowles ran a masterful game. So did Mayfield and Cohen.
Still, we need to score a lot more points if we are going to beat the Saints this year.
Props to the Lions…they played very well also.
September 16th, 2024 at 1:57 pm
@Slypirate
Bowles defensive system has been in place since 2019… and struggles to defend the forward pass in a league where defending the pass is paramount
His regular season record as Head Coach is not impressive so far at 19-17
Win was awesome and it’s great being 2-0 but we’ve seen these type of mirage’s in Bucs seasons before, over 2 years and lots of in game gaffes it’s hard to be confident in him as a Head Coach
September 16th, 2024 at 1:57 pm
The point of a game is to win. Criticizing a coach’s decision when he won is just stupid.
September 16th, 2024 at 2:00 pm
First Name Greatest, are you a Bucs fan?
Asking because in Tampa, we are familiar with ‘bend, don’t break’.
Bowles did very well.
Honestly, if Mayfield and Cohen continue to do well and injuries don’t pile up, we might just see another SB appearance.
September 16th, 2024 at 2:02 pm
Also…Bowles record is not 2 games over .500, it is 3 games over .500.
September 16th, 2024 at 2:03 pm
I’m thrilled with the effort and the W. Bowles has this team playing hard.
September 16th, 2024 at 2:04 pm
Todd Bowles is doing a great job with the defense. Liam gotta do a better job of preparing the offense!!
September 16th, 2024 at 2:12 pm
I got a lot of pre game texts. Not many post game. Sometimes it’s tough be surrounded by Lions fans. Yesterday, not so much, other than I aged 5 years!
September 16th, 2024 at 2:13 pm
Dare to dream!
As most of you know, I have been extremely skeptical of Bowles and Mayfield. To this day I DO NOT believe the QB competition was real…so I feel Bowles misled the fans.
But…the big question is…was he right to put his faith in Mayfield?
Last year was a rollercoaster of a season with Mayfield. Up and down. Never knew what to expect. But he finished the season strong…so I felt he at least earned a contract…but not a massive contract. The contract he ended up with seemed fair.
He did cost us the playoff win last year. That pick is what ended the game for us, not matter how much some people try to blame the exhausted defense.
But…so far this year…he beat the team he was supposed to beat…and many of us went into yesterday unsure as to whether we could beat the Lions. Now, Lions fans will complain about uncalled penalties…but just as many went against us in the game.
Mayfield is playing like a championship QB. Will he maintain it? We’ll see…but my confidence in him is certainly growing.
As to Bowles…I have been feeling more and more that if he had a great OC, he could make us a lasting contender. Cohen seems pretty good so far.
We all knew the offensive line would need time to gel…another few games should be enough to do so.
Got a great feeling about this year. It feels like the team has paid it’s dues and has become mentally tough.
September 16th, 2024 at 2:15 pm
Also, props to Bowles for improving the stamina of the defense. They played a full 60 minutes out there.
September 16th, 2024 at 2:18 pm
Go Bucs!
Go Bowles!
September 16th, 2024 at 2:22 pm
First Name Greatest, hmmm 🤔
You know that makes you FNG, right?
September 16th, 2024 at 2:24 pm
As I watched Detroit close in the Bucs in the second half, I got the feeling the Bucs couldn’t hang with the Lions, BUT the Defense kept coming up with amazing plays and effort to stop the Lions.
The Defense just shut the Lions down and the Offense scored enough to stay ahead.
Incredible team effort that defined the 2024 Buccaneers.
September 16th, 2024 at 2:26 pm
How do you know it was the right decision? That if the Bucs went for it, that they wouldn’t have got it, that it wouldn’t have lead to a TD?
But data is just data, and kickers are making +50 yard FGs at insane rates this year, so I’m not sure up to date data would say not to kick.
In any case, I didn’t see anyone complaining about the call myself. Not that I doubt there was, as there’s people to complain about everything.
September 16th, 2024 at 2:31 pm
The go for it trend is stupid. Fantasy footballing.
September 16th, 2024 at 2:34 pm
Not gonna win many games when your defense gives up stats like these
463 total yards
0 sacks on 55 pass attempts
Run defense allowed 5.1 yards per carry
26 first downs
3 1st down from penalties
Timely turnovers and stingy red zone D were the MVP’s of the day. But don’t be fooled this type of play cannot continue to have a good season
Sorry to ruin anyone’s fantasy but no Bowles is not a good coach and this was more luck than design by him
September 16th, 2024 at 2:58 pm
First Name Greatest – I don’t think you understand Bowles philosophy very well. He doesn’t care about yards. Only points.
September 16th, 2024 at 2:58 pm
Not sure what the the NFL Kickers have been sniffin this year so far but they all (sans the now former Washington Deadskins kicker in week 1) have been nailing it from 50+ yards out.
September 16th, 2024 at 3:07 pm
Just sticking to the original question of this thread (why does every
play that’s subject to a “sidelines-decision” by the coach have to be a referendum on Bowles’ coaching ability in general? – whether to “go-for-it” on 4th has nothing to do with his lack of “time-management” abilities, etc. for example), my vote was for putting points on the board as the most important priority against a Super Bowl contender-team, and he did it; ya, that’s all that counts.
But as long as this is already about Bowles, his track record “says” he doesn’t “do” 4th down plays, anyway. A rare, “even a broken clock is right twice a day” situation.
Awesome to see McCarthy starting off exactly as reliable as he was last year; with the great discipline on penalties and turnovers, the Buccaneers look like a Belichick team, but it’s the team (like last year), not the coach (credit where it’s due, but there needs to be tangible evidence, and not just coincidental).
September 16th, 2024 at 3:26 pm
First Name Greatest is Realisto, rebranded. Hahaha
September 16th, 2024 at 3:43 pm
I don’t think there needs to be much more talk of Bowles not being good. He hasn’t done anything but get better and better.
And we all know he is a phenomenal defensive coordinator, one of the best in the NFL.
People constantly want to go back to the play call against the Rams in the NFC championship game as being such a horrible call. Maybe it was, maybe it wasn’t but no one ever mentions that if Winfield didn’t completely blow his coverage, they might’ve been going back to the SB. So it wasn’t all on the call.
September 16th, 2024 at 3:48 pm
19-17 regular season is not good, no matter how you try to spin it
September 16th, 2024 at 4:17 pm
@First Name Greatest – your bias disallows objectivity. Since Todd Bowles became the Bucs DC how many NFC teams have won more playoff games this decade?
The answer is NONE.
September 16th, 2024 at 4:42 pm
The same 2 or 3 trolls change their usernames each year and come back here with the same dumb nonsense over and over.
Just ignore them folks. They can’t live if you don’t feed them.
September 16th, 2024 at 4:57 pm
I’ve always appreciated Bowles for his player coach ways but have been very vocal about his faults as a game manager and being way too conservative.
Right now I don’t know how anyone could be down on the guy. At this point I will eat my words and admit he’s still the right guy to be steering this ship.
It’s a long season still. The bend don’t break is great when it’s working, when it’s not (Houston 2023) it’s ugly. Hopefully we have the proper personnel this year (Whitehead >>> Neal) and we don’t see any ugly ones. Gonna need the starters back though. The backups can’t do that week in and week out. I hope I’m wrong but consistency will be the toughest thing to find for our young guys and backups who.. are likely backups due to consistency.
My fear of Bowles still stems back to the 2022 playoffs and that zero blitz. Blitzing against Stafford as much as he did and then the zero blitz to lose the game… I was sure we were gonna repeat and in my mind we didn’t because of his defensive calls.
September 16th, 2024 at 5:59 pm
First Name Greatest says: “Bowles defensive system has been in place since 2019… and struggles to defend the forward pass …”
So, I’m guessing you didn’t watch the game at all, but you’re going to tell us all about it. You’ve got stones, I’ll give you that.
September 16th, 2024 at 6:25 pm
There’s winning games by being the better team, and winning them by luck. This win against a healthy, playoff-caliber team was cos the Bucs wanted it more than the Lions did. Luck had nothing to do with it. No insult to the Lions and their fans. Detroit finally has a team very capable of playing in and winning the SB. Tampa Bay outplayed them, simple as that. Will Bucs make the playoffs? Now, we’re talking about luck as in injuries. One game at a time is how I’m looking at this season. Go Bucs! 🍀
September 16th, 2024 at 6:54 pm
When is Ndog gonna post again? I miss him and his Jay Miss doll.
September 16th, 2024 at 9:13 pm
Buccaneer Bonzai,
I’m sure we are all relieved you are now on board with Baker Mayfield. You got there well after ME13, Jason Licht, Todd Bowles, and many ex NFL players. Must have been tough for you jumping on board to finally endorse SI’s pick as the best college QB of this century? It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt.
September 17th, 2024 at 7:46 am
Yeah Yeah Yeah…I still want a TD on the first possession please! Even better the first two!
Go Bucs!
September 18th, 2024 at 8:27 am
I c it as look at Campbell doing the 4th downs all the time & it has worked at times but it also cost him the most important game wins such as the NFL championship game. It doesn’t take balls to mess up a season let bowles call the game & u just drink u r mug of beer. & STFU
September 18th, 2024 at 8:35 am
First name greatest says POS of postings on this site