Cynthia Frelund Likes Mike (Evans)
September 5th, 2024
Where Mike Evans excels.
So, be vertical!
Joe and Ira get into it all the time on the “Ira Kaufman Podcast” about how to attack a game offensively. Ira wants to run the ball. Joe wants the Bucs to run whatever works.
Joe never has and never will understand the need or the mentality of slamming the ball into the line for no good reason other than the offensive coordinator wants to get into a unit-measuring contest. There are only so many snaps in a game, why waste them?
However, Joe firmly believes if a run game is working, then by all means, feed your back the ball.
On the flip side, if a defense cannot stop the pass, make it bleed through the air.
In other words, whatever works.
The game should dictate what an offense should do.
In the research of NFL Network stats queen Cynthia Frelund, what worked for the Bucs last year was throwing to Mike Evans vertically. In fact, Evans running vertical routes, per Frelund, was one of the most dangerous plays in the NFL last season.
Attention, fantasy fiends! My models project Mike Evans to rank sixth in TDs this season. Last year, per [NextGen Stats], he ranked top five in targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns when running vertical routes. With Chris Godwin returning to a full-time role in the slot, the outside connection between Baker Mayfield and Evans figures to bear plenty fruit once again.
If this is accurate — and Joe has no reason to doubt the NextGen data which is gathered from sensors embedded in players’ equipment — then for Joe the offensive philosophy is simple: Throw to Evans on vertical routes early and often and then celebrate a Bucs victory!
Be vertical, Bucs!
September 5th, 2024 at 8:42 am
Make sure it’s not more than 15 yards down the field. Mayfield struggles beyond that distance.
September 5th, 2024 at 8:53 am
Evans ranked Top 5 in TD?
Would you say Jerry Rice is Top 5 in Rec Yards or TB12 is Top 5 in Passing Yards?
She’s not wrong but #1 is a recognizable accomplishment.
September 5th, 2024 at 9:17 am
A thank you to Cynthia Frelund.
Go Evans – vertically dangerous!
September 5th, 2024 at 9:21 am
A Bucs Fan – nobody completes all of their passes. Here’s what I can say about your comment. Baker Mayfield is an elite passer. Has been since he came into this league. Too many of you fans cherry pick stats to back up your B.S. Besides leadership skills and competitive nature that is and always will be his calling card. He’s a gunslinger with accuracy that very few QBs in the league have. Don’t believe me? I was gonna give you a list of players and coaches that’ll tell you the same thing. But then I thought – why bother? To make a comment like you did in your post you have already made up your mind. I know, I know A Bucs Fan. You’re sure you saw him make some bad throws last year. What a joke.
September 5th, 2024 at 9:35 am
Come to think of it, Sly.
#1 is recognizable!!!
You get the Wise Crack of the day award!
September 5th, 2024 at 9:48 am
If Coen wants to be a head coach, he needs his offense to perform markedly better than any previous Todd head coached team.
If Todd wants to coach beyond January of 2025, he needs to win at least 10 games, especially with the roster Jason has crafted.
I’m sure Coen already knows where the Bucs strengths are and aren’t, offensively. I’d expect an offense with a pass/run ratio of 60/40%, Baker with at least 4500 yards passing and 30TDs, and at least 1500 yards of rushing.
That’s what it’s gonna take for at least 10 wins.
September 5th, 2024 at 10:29 am
@Kenton Smith – Don’t be so dramatic. There are idealistic and intangible traits for which arguments can be made for Mayfield as a person and leader. Though when it comes to reality I prefer the numbers. Defense Rules and I have already had this discussion. My resource, player profiler, showed on deep throws over 20 yards down the field Mayfield had a 29% completion rate last season. That is the worst completion % with the most attempts in the league. DR posted a great analysis using PFR, in response to my post, for 15 yards down the field and came out with 41%. DR shared that figure was heavily influenced by Mike Evan’s greatness and ability to come down with football because every other receiver not named Mike Evans was close to 30% (The worst being Trey Palmer 0%).
That’s not to say he’s a bad QB. Although, down the field throws are or were most recently an area of weakness in Mayfield’s game whether you like it or not. Let’s hope the improved offensive line and run game helps him out this season to better those numbers.
September 5th, 2024 at 10:31 am
@Kenton Smith
That was an EXCELLENT response to a Bucs fan.
BTW Baker is generally considered to have one of the stronger arms in the NFL.
ESPN had his strength of arm at 7th in the league, I’ve seen other rankings and Baker is generally considered to have a top ten arm.
September 5th, 2024 at 10:32 am
A Bucs fan
Did you replace any lost yardage due to ME13’s untimely DROPS?
September 5th, 2024 at 10:37 am
@Stpete even with Mike’s drops his catch % on those throws was over 10% better than every other WR on the roster.
I get liking your QB and I support Mayfield as the starter. Regardless of his arm strength he had a hard time being accurate down the field last season.
September 5th, 2024 at 10:52 am
“My resource, player profiler, showed on deep throws over 20 yards down the field Mayfield had a 29% completion rate last season.”
Does this account for drops? I can recall at least 4-5 ME drops on passes like that. And I’d guess passes over 20 yards are the lowest % of pass attempts all year.
My main encouragement for Mayfield is how he finished and how he’s played in playoff games throughout his career.
Final 8 games including playoffs he was at 7.5 YPA, 272 yards per game, and 15 TD to 2 Int. That includes the Carolina game where he was hurt and probably shouldn’t have played.
That’s a 17 game regular season pace of 4624 yards, 32 TD’s, 4-5 Int’s.
That said, I think with a more balanced run game we will see more red zone rushing TD’s vs the 6 White gave us last year. And we won’t need to air it out as much as we did during the 2nd half of last year.
September 5th, 2024 at 12:23 pm
Fair analogy? Joe = 99 Rams and Ira = 67 Packers?
September 5th, 2024 at 1:42 pm
Butterface.
September 5th, 2024 at 1:50 pm
Agreed Joe. Do what works. I’m more of a pass it guy. Since Winston was airing it out it’s bin fun to watch. Then Brady came in and aired it out. I really liked Arians offense. I think we are still built for airing it out more than running but if we running well then keep it up. Feed the back the ball like you said but man it’s awesome to watch ME13 work
September 5th, 2024 at 4:39 pm
I’ve been endlessly repeating a simpler version of this statement since 2020:
“Feed Evans early and often.”
September 5th, 2024 at 7:35 pm
Joe Says; Joe never has and never will understand the need or the mentality of slamming the ball into the line for no good reason other than the offensive coordinator wants to get into a unit-measuring contest.
^^^^^
Such double entendre in an article featuring Cynthia Frelund, it must be the bare feet.
September 5th, 2024 at 7:42 pm
I never really knew anything about Cynthia Frelund as I don’t watch any sports shows. This lady is all brain or at least almost all brain.
No wonder Joe has a crush on her.
September 5th, 2024 at 8:06 pm
Baker and Evans are going to be better than last year. I don’t care if we rank last in the NFL in rushing yards , as long as they are in the top 8 in passing yards and TDs ! It’s a passing league and has been for years. We won the Super Bowl without a running game and Brady , Evans leading the way in passing ! Go Bucs. P.S. Washington was dead last in pass defense last year. And bottom 3 in points allowed. PASS THE BALL with the embarrassment of riches our Bucs have in WR talent, Cade Otten , and a beefed up Oline ! Bucs win week 1 , 35-10
September 5th, 2024 at 9:26 pm
Last season I listen to many comparisons between qb & many stats when certain criteria were mentioned baker had many stats ranked better than the 5 top qb in the league so stuff u r stupid # of 29% up u r poop shoot as a matter of fact when it came to 3rd down % with long yardage Mayfield was tops on completions.plz don’t forget the only QB with a perfect passer rating in league history in Green Bay is mayfield.that is a tops in the league that’s all u need to know
September 5th, 2024 at 10:15 pm
Hey, a buck fan, what was Mayfields completion rate in 2022? 2021?
I’m not taking sides. I’ don’t know so I’m curious….As per the claims his completion rate must have come down a bit from 2022 but that’s not what I heard…
So what’s the truth? In the end the past doesn’t matter and I wouldn’t want any true BUCCANEERS FAN to feel like it does because IT DOESN’T.
What matters is NOW. Let’s hope no matter which is the truth of the past, that it won’t compare to the glory of today and the tomorrow’s in Tampa Bay…
September 6th, 2024 at 10:21 am
@Bakerbucs You are idolizing in a way that disallows objectivity. Baker is a human being and not worthy of your worship. The two facts you mentioned are true but they don’t disprove anything I wrote.
@Obvious – Baker’s 2022 deep ball completion percentage was 45% but he had only 31 attempts in 12 games ranked for 28th; whereas in 2023 he had the most deep ball attempts in the NFL with 79 and a 31st ranked 29% completion rate.
His 2021 deep ball completion rate was 37% on 58 attempts.
Again these are throws that travel 20 yards down the field or more.
It appears that ever since his shoulder injury in 2021 the more Baker throws the ball down the field the worse his completion percentage is. 2018-2020 seasons he was steadily rising until his injury. Since then the numbers have been inconsistent at best (2022 is an outlier because he only played 12 games and had the lowest attempts he’s had in his career by far).
All these statistics and more are public and available for anyone to view.
It is relevant and does matter if your best wide receiver excels at vertical routes and your starting QB has a hard time completing those passes. Again I’ll say that hopefully the new scheme, improved oline and run game helps Baker up his game.