BSPN: Bucs Have 33 Percent Chance At Playoffs
September 5th, 2024
One loss too many?
Look, the notion that some claim the Bucs are hurt by the loss of Devin White and Shaq Barrett generally makes Joe’s blood boil it is such horribly, lazy analysis.
But Joe has to give credit to follicly-challenged Billy Barnwell of BSPN for somewhat putting this in context.
Billy thinks replacing Barrett, White and Carlton Davis is just too much. Not that all three were balling out, Billy notes, but replacing a starter on every level of the defense is a tall task.
You know what? Billy has a solid point. Still, the Bucs actually played better when White was benched. So no loss there.
Shaq? Joe loves the guy but he was invisible the last two months of the season. Even Joe Tryon-Shoyinka had better production in December and January. Again, no loss there.
The void of Davis might be where the Bucs could get tripped up. Joe has hope that Zyon McCollum can fill the void in place of Davis. But let’s also be real: If the Bucs through McCollum was all that, why did the Bucs drop a boatload of Team Glazer loot in Jamel Dean’s lap last year?
White, who might be a third-string linebacker with the Eagles, and Shaq are no losses. But also losing their No. 1 corner? Billy has a point. That’s a lot of bodies to replace at once.
September 5th, 2024 at 7:05 am
You were right the first time Joe. Lazy analysis from the “experts”.
McCollum will do just fine. 3rd year. Finally knows the system inside and out.
Ridiculous athleticism. High confidence.
No concerns here with him.
September 5th, 2024 at 7:20 am
I can’t remember Zyon getting burnt left and right when he was substituting CD.
No loss there.
3 more days!
LFG!!!
September 5th, 2024 at 7:28 am
Wait, maybe I can be an NFL Forecaster.
Let’s see…
There are 32 NFL teams and 14 of them will make the playoffs.
14/32*100. The Bucs have a 44% chance of making the playoffs.
That was easy.
September 5th, 2024 at 7:28 am
Dean is soft.
September 5th, 2024 at 7:43 am
Last year’s CB ranking had Davis below Dean at #36th in the league. When an average player is considered the best you have he’s still average. I’d hope one of the current CB’s on the roster can play better than that for a fraction of the price.
September 5th, 2024 at 7:45 am
Replacing starters happens every year in the nfl. You know like the chargers who everyone thinks got better because of harbaugh but he’s never turned around anyone year one.
This company is just the biggest and most successful at being wrong
September 5th, 2024 at 7:48 am
Every year it’s the same thing. These analysts don’t watch the Bucs at all. If they did they would see that all three players we lost, really weren’t doing sh!t last year. Davis was always hurt, Shaq seemed to have lost a step, and we won’t even talk about 45. Bucs will be fine this year can’t wait til Sunday
September 5th, 2024 at 8:02 am
Carlton Davis was an above average CB but he was not top 10. Neither was he a speedster like Zyon McCollum. He was going to slow down soon, especially with all his injuries. Zyon ceiling is high and has better hands for turnovers. Letting Davis go is definitely a gamble, but the outcome could be also be a major plus.
September 5th, 2024 at 8:18 am
These lazy writers accumulate what others say instead of digging for REAL info for themselves.
GIGO
September 5th, 2024 at 8:22 am
I was listening to Trevor from PFF and he said Dean always had better coverage grades than Carlton Davis 70-80’s for the past five years….Unless CD3 isn’t playing. Then he would dip just below 70. It’s going to be a big test for Dean this season being the guy. Let’s hope he steps up
September 5th, 2024 at 8:57 am
I liked Davis. He’s a really good corner. Excells at Job One for CBs: defend against passes. Yeah, he should’ve had a few takeaways a year and he didn’t. But I bet Bowles would’ve been more miffed at Davis if he had 4 interceptions a year but allowed guys he covered to beat him over and over.
But somebody’s job had to get sacrificed on the cap altar–somebody with production or it isn’t much of a sacrifice–and it looks like corner is where we had the best depth and the ability to replace through the draft this year. Another team personnel management clinic by Licht this offsesson. I love being a fan of this team!
September 5th, 2024 at 9:03 am
Shaq was below average. White was a liability. CDIII played in less than 12 games.
What did we lose?
We also “lost” Neal. He single-handedly lost us 2 games. Maybe more. We added Whitehead. We upgraded Yaya and CK. We drafted Braz and Smith.
We lost close to nothing and added a ton. This defense is FAST! They’ll be a problem.
September 5th, 2024 at 9:09 am
Davis was an awesome press man corner but too bad Bowles plays a lot of zone because he’s average there. Devin white is a monster except when it comes to taking on o lineman plus he’s a head case other than that he’s one of the best. Shaq I honestly wish he was back on this team as insurance. We don’t have the pass rushers everyone thinks we do
September 5th, 2024 at 9:22 am
I think a lot of fans are going to be highly disappointed in this season, especially if your expectations are high or you expect this team to win the division.
Todd Bowles is averse to changing and adapting to the modern NFL game. His pass defense routinely gets shredded by QB’s who the following week are humbled by a competent defensive coordinator.
In 2023 this team barely escaped teams like the Vikings (3 point road win) and Beat the worst team in the league twice by a total of 12 points. The 9 wins in 2024 were a HUGE mirage. While a fun watch, it just delays the inevitable firing of Todd and his hapless staff.
I’d love to be wrong but this team with this schedule will be a 6 or 7 win team and finishing 3rd in the division.
September 5th, 2024 at 9:28 am
First Name Greatest – “ I’d love to be wrong “ – No you wouldn’t. Nobody loves to be wrong. Unless something is wrong with them. Stop your lying.
September 5th, 2024 at 9:33 am
Do I like to be wrong about my job? No. About my personal choices? No.
Sorry if I am not offended by a strangers opinion
But yes, I love being wrong about this team just like I was last year. I just see a team that struggled to get to 9 wins in a bad division and an easy schedule (playing the bad AFC South and NFC South for 10 games as well as the Bears & Vikings)
They did little to improve the roster in the areas they struggled and have a tougher schedule so anything over 7 wins would be a HUGE surprise
September 5th, 2024 at 9:37 am
BA’s Bucs averaged 30ppg over his three year tenure, and in the regular season had a combined record of 31-18.
Todd’s Bucs have averaged 20ppg over his two year tenure, and in the regular season have a combined record of 17-17.
The 10ppg drop off puts a ton of pressure on the defense and leaves the Bucs vulnerable to being overtaken in the 4th quarter of games.
I agree that Todd runs a soft, yielding pass defense, and the mirage is that the defense didn’t give up points commensurate with yards allowed, but that is not sustainable.
The offense must score >25ppg to have a chance at 10 wins and the division title.
Let’s see if Coen is strong enough to keep Todd away from the offensive game plan, and if he and Baler can conjure some first drive or at least first quarter touchdowns.
September 5th, 2024 at 10:14 am
Agree Joe. Barnwells statement is WAY too general and broad. That theory of 3 new starters in three areas 100% depends on WHO is being replaced and how good are the replacement players. They are not being replaced by rookies. 3 starters in a defense or offense being replaced happens every freakin year with multiple teams. Who cares.
September 5th, 2024 at 10:14 am
Defense and the secondary in particular will be better than last year….
September 5th, 2024 at 10:19 am
Carton justified the Bucs to win the Division and rolled off all the stats (4yr in a row, blah, blah, blah, and everyone seems to think that they’ve forgotten how to play football, & they return everyone, Etc.), while the rest of the panel ‘laughed’ at him… He also hinted that Baker would be a “friend of the show” this season (if he and they are good, I’m assuming)!!!! Just hopefully, they (and Baker) don’t completely fall apart after receiving the attention like they did after last season’s fast start.
September 5th, 2024 at 10:21 am
Not “justified” – just picked. I hate this new spellcheck after a couple of updates ago… Absolutely, HORRIBLE. Makes zero sense.
September 5th, 2024 at 11:18 am
The local weather forecasters can’t predict what will happen 2-3 days out. They say 20% of rain and it rains then it’s 80% and it doesn’t.
September 5th, 2024 at 11:21 am
our depth corners are stronger though. hall might end up starting if anyone falters/gets hurt. i think he’d do fine. it’s more about bowles and his defensive scheme. he gets outcoached and outadjusted too much, then compounds his mistakes by mismanaging clock/situation/timeouts. that being said, an improved running game will shorten games, limit defensive fatigue, and allow our depth to make an impact. lastly, we can’t underestimate the value of rookies and 2nd year players improving with their learning curves. expecting something close to last year, without the streakiness. slightly worse start, slightly better midseason, slightly worse luck with playoff matchups or the division sucking
September 5th, 2024 at 1:25 pm
Pretty good odds. Gladly take them. This is a 7 win team at best. They could start 0-5!
September 5th, 2024 at 2:02 pm
Steiner Math says it all
See the 4 way NFC south, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because Kurt Angle KNOWS he can’t beat me and he’s not even gonna try!
So Samoa Joe, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. See Joe, the numbers don’t lie, and they spell disaster for you at Sacrifice.
September 5th, 2024 at 2:30 pm
Wow! What a difference a year makes. I remember last year, where everyone was
whining about how tough our schedule was and we’d be lucky to win one game game out of the first four and it would be a miracle if we won six games. Almost everyone wanted Bowles’ head on a pike.
Not every team is as blessed as we are to have a great GM like JL and a HC that is way better than we give him credit for. If you listen to the TV coverage during last year’s games almost every single one of them had respect for Todd’s defense. He is also the guy that has coached up all our young talent either directly or by his assistant coaching hires. Many of these have been 3rd round and below or UDFAs. Having been a Bucs fan since the beginning in 76′, feel we have finally been blessed with the stability we always wished for.
If they stay healthy, this team can beat any team in the NFL.
Go Bucs!!!
September 5th, 2024 at 4:37 pm
Truth is they’re STILL trying to replace the Shaq of 2019 – 2021, not the 2023 version of him.
Zyon is the big unknown right now. I think he’ll have some growing pains, but he has all the physical tools and seems to have a good head on his shoulders.