NFL Data Study And 1 Million Game Simulations Put Bucs At 8 Wins
September 2nd, 2024
Joe loves how NFL.com has issued a new season-win-totals report that includes a sportsbook sponsor in the content.
It’s hilarious how the NFL treated gambling as the devil and now miraculously has shifted gears and continues to embrace wagering like Todd Bowles does a forced turnover.
Today’s slop comes from NFL analytics queen Cynthia Frelund.
NFL.com made every attempt to let fans knoew Frelund is a true scientist.
Analytics expert Cynthia Frelund took data from the past 12 NFL campaigns to create historical references for personnel, schemes and matchups, identifying factors that are proven to lead to wins (or losses). She vetted the correlations with a bunch of real football people (e.g., coaches) and had her math checked out by real math people (e.g., PhDs) to make sure the model reflected reality as much as possible. Then she compared this year’s personnel, schemes and matchups — with the vetted mathematical weightings — and simulated the season to produce a ceiling, floor and projected win total for all 32 teams. The ceiling-to-floor range is something to focus on — a big discrepancy means the team is projected to play in more close games.
Cynthia’s simulations included 1,000,000 runs of every single regular-season game, which equals 272,000,000 total games “played.”
All that work from Frelund led her to report the Bucs are an 8-win team (8.0 to be exact). She reports Tampa Bay’s floor is 5.9 wins and the ceiling is 10.6, while the sportsbook over/under is 7.5 wins.
The Falcons are Frelund’s easy division winner with 10.1 wins projected. But what stuck in Joe’s craw is that she has the Falcons’ “floor” at 8.8 wins. What?
Joe is so grateful for the Bucs’ and Falcons’ seasons to begin on Sunday. A Bucs win against Washington would be glorious, but the Falcons getting slapped at home by the Steelers would be nearly as wonderful.
September 2nd, 2024 at 12:24 pm
If we end up with that record…Bowles and Baker are history. Probably the biggest salary guys too, more than likely.
September 2nd, 2024 at 12:31 pm
Go Bucs! But the falcons schedule is insanely easy..
September 2nd, 2024 at 12:35 pm
Why even play the games if simulations dictate the outcome. Just go to the playoff games
So when they are wrong what will they say??? Most likely nothing, as if they never said anything
September 2nd, 2024 at 12:41 pm
Flip a coin. 50/50 chance you’re right, no need to flip it a million times.
September 2nd, 2024 at 12:42 pm
11
September 2nd, 2024 at 12:43 pm
and thats that
September 2nd, 2024 at 12:44 pm
Sounds about right
September 2nd, 2024 at 12:46 pm
I swear to God has anyone looked at the Falcons schedule?
Why are people shocked Falcons are touted as preseason darlings?
September 2nd, 2024 at 1:00 pm
Mike S Says:
Has anyone looked at the Falcons schedule?
^^^^^
ATLANTA’S FIRST 5 GAMES
Pit, KC, Phi, TB, NO
4x Playoff Teams
3x Division Winners
2x NFCS
1x Super Bowl Champ
New QB. New HC. Rookie OC/DC. ATL may start 0-5.
September 2nd, 2024 at 1:22 pm
When you run a million simulated seasons and still wind up with a 5.9-10.6 win range, that tells you just how hard it is to model NFL football.
September 2nd, 2024 at 1:24 pm
Sly – Atl is favored over Pit at home. Play NO and TB at home.
September 2nd, 2024 at 1:30 pm
Her math rarely matches up with reality. You just cannot use a mathematical terms and equations to replace human emotion it just doesn’t work, not for players or coaching decisions. All the math and analytics just don’t really translate to the NFL. It may work for baseball, but football nope. Look at the Chargers they tried that and they haven’t been worth spit the last five years or so. I do not ever remember media being this smitten over such an average team, I just don’t get it. I guess they think it is going to be the Falcons and Bears in the NFC championship game. I don’t see either teams in the playoffs, you are the Falcons and Bears until you prove otherwise. I can’t wait for the toe to hit the leather, let’s go.
September 2nd, 2024 at 1:37 pm
Garbage in, Garbage out.
September 2nd, 2024 at 1:41 pm
It’s a good thing game simulations mean what they do , nothing! That is why actual games are played!
September 2nd, 2024 at 1:54 pm
8 wins is the floor. 13 wins is the ceiling.
2024 Bucs are a 10 or 11 win team.
September 2nd, 2024 at 2:10 pm
I would love to know what her prediction was last year because I’m sure it was worse than this year
September 2nd, 2024 at 2:14 pm
Yet another GIGO Story
She can only factor in the past, guessing at the present, to determine the future.
There’s a whole town of psychics and wiccans in Florida (can’t remember the name) that have better than a 50/50 chance of making a better prediction using nothing but a crystal ball.
September 2nd, 2024 at 2:16 pm
Tea leaves, divining rods, cards, pick your poison.
On second thought, better not mention poison options to the wiccans. LoL
September 2nd, 2024 at 2:46 pm
Simply tell me what her history is with those types of predictions.
September 2nd, 2024 at 2:48 pm
There will be 2 teams with losing records making playoffs in NFC
September 2nd, 2024 at 3:02 pm
The Falcons are Frelund’s easy division winner with 10.1 wins projected. But what stuck in Joe’s craw is that she has the Falcons’ “floor” at 8.8 wins. What?
——
The Falcons won 7 games last year – and massively improved their team by getting rid of Ridder, who was terrible. If Kirk puts up even something as middling as a Baker Mayfield type season, they’re going to be dramatically improved.
Now, on the other side, they do have new coaches, bunch of new players, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see them come out of the gate slow. But I’d hesitated on anointing the Bucs the NFC South champs after week 1, assuming the Bucs win.
Also there’s the whole Saints problem – a team that finished with the same record as the Bucs last year, and handily beat down Tampa in that 2nd to last game of the season when the Bucs needed to win to wrap-up their home playoff game, only to see Baker have his worst game of the season.
In any case, I have the Bucs 8-9, which I think is pretty positive – means if they can just find an extra win somewhere they’re likely a playoff team. But for others, I just don’t get what joy comes from self proclaiming that you’re the champs – there’s literally only one direction to go from there, and even if you do win, where’s the fun in it? Nah, I’ll take the underdog role, of a team that is supposed to stink, and then you get the fun of the wins, plus the fun of listening to other teams sports talk radio when they’re throwing hissy fits because some scrub team beat them – that is fun.
September 2nd, 2024 at 3:05 pm
Last year’s PFF predictions:
Saints in NFC Championship Game
Bijan Robinson leads the league in rushing
Bryce Young among league leaders in passing
Bucs finish last place with a top 5 draft pick
Sunday can’t come soon enough
September 2nd, 2024 at 4:09 pm
Both Falcons and Bucs upgraded their rosters, and Falcons are supposed to improve by 3 wins and Bucs are supposed to regress by a win? Somebody is feeding their computer garbage data. Bucs will win 10, perhaps 11, games. And that assumes they struggle early and go 5-5 before the Bye.
September 2nd, 2024 at 4:41 pm
PowerOfPewter Says:
September 2nd, 2024 at 4:09 pm
Both Falcons and Bucs upgraded their rosters
———-
The Bucs got rid of their best corner, their 2nd best ILB, their only experienced edge rusher, and have no depth at edge or MLB. To say they upgraded their roster because of a new safety and center is a big stretch.
Meanwhile the Falcons went from having the worst / 2nd worst QB in football to getting a proven veteran who instantly becomes the best QB in the NFC South if he’s healthy, and if he’s not healthy you have a top pick ready to go.
Upgrading the most important position in all of sports is a much bigger upgrade than getting better run blocking center. They’re not comparable situations at all.
But here’s the thing, it literally doesn’t matter what anyone says, it just matters what they do on the field. Which is why I don’t get why people are so worried about the ‘doubters’ – who cares what they think. If you’re so confident in the Bucs, go take out a 2nd mortgage and take all the money to Vegas and put it on Tampa. I hope it works out for you – I really do.
September 2nd, 2024 at 5:26 pm
JustVisiting – I appreciate that you understand modeling / mathematics. Her usual stuff is historical excel spreadsheet work with a few modifiers to account for personnel changes and changes in projected player performance. This version sounds a little more sophisticated given the inclusion of more years of data, but it’s not clear what anything from 10 years ago would tell us now.
Great point about the projected floor/ceiling gap and the implication of the foolishness of her errand.
Cheers.
September 2nd, 2024 at 5:28 pm
Don’t fret guys she had us at like 5-6 wins last year
September 2nd, 2024 at 7:00 pm
You can’t simulate MOXIE!!
September 2nd, 2024 at 7:55 pm
Yeah and if I truly cared what the sports betters think about our wins and losses I would be a Gambler. I take the days one at a time. As we just read here yesterday (Joe) thinks if Baker is injured we will not win another game. Yeah… Nothing like being a fan of what feeds you…
So now a sports bookies cover attraction. Is giving her take on what the team at One Buc Place will do this season. Why again is this woman working when she has the power to tell the future???? And just let me guess, she has Atlanta winning the NFC SOUTH as well… Yeah…
September 2nd, 2024 at 8:50 pm
In other news, Atl was 0 and 3 this preseason. Which is a better indication Sims or actual games?
September 2nd, 2024 at 9:29 pm
11 seems like a reasonable smcdiling but I’d put the floor at 8, IF we stay healthy.
Obviously all bets are off if we get any serious injuries to key players.
My prediction is still 10-7 at this point.
September 2nd, 2024 at 9:30 pm
*ceiling
September 2nd, 2024 at 10:43 pm
MeaninglessMeans Says:
September 2nd, 2024 at 8:50 pm
In other news, Atl was 0 and 3 this preseason. Which is a better indication Sims or actual games?
———
The Bucs played their starters on offense for 3 mins and 5 seconds – does that mean anything? Nope.
The Falcons played their starters for even less time.
You literally can’t take anything away from preseason – not that you ever could take wins and losses from preseason and make them mean much. I remember in the 2002 SB year the Bucs in the preseason got completely destroyed by the Redskins, 40-10. What did it mean? Nothing.
September 3rd, 2024 at 3:50 am
My PC says 11 wins and it has the top of the line Non-Roger Goodell chip with the latest Madden virus software in it.
This stuff just proves some folks will believe anything.
Geez!
Go Bucs!
September 3rd, 2024 at 8:30 am
No pass rush
Todd Bowles Cover No One Pass Defense
First time offensive coordinator
First place schedule
7 or 8 wins is about right