Overlooked Baker Mayfield Trait A Reason For Rebirth?
August 31st, 2024
Quicker release saved career?
This kind of analysis is why Joe has high regard for the inventor of DVOA and the founder of Football Outsiders (RIP) Aaron Schatz.
Since Football Outsiders went kaput after a sale two years ago, Schatz took his talents to something called FTNFantasy.com. More importantly, Schatz also took over the old Football Outsiders Almanac, which Schatz himself created and rebranded “Aaron Schatz’s FTN Football Almanac.”
In this year’s annual, Football Outsiders refugee Byron Knowles typed up the chapter on the Bucs.
Baker Mayfield had a career year last year with the Bucs and offensive coordinator Dave Canales. It seems, per Knowles, Canales worked on Mayfield’s mechanics leaving Mayfield with the quickest release of the football of his career?
Coincidence? Joe doesn’t believe in football coincidences.
He played like he was comfortable and confident for the first time in years, willing to chuck the ball downfield and into tight windows in key situations rather than settling for checkdowns and getting off the field. He also got the ball out of his hands quickly, not something he had historically been known for. He averaged 2.71 seconds to throw, nearly a tenth of a second faster than any other year in his career. He hadn’t been under 2.8 since his rookie season and drifted over three seconds at the worst of it, but he was far more decisive in Tampa Bay than we had ever seen him before. Most importantly, he played less frantically than he did at times in Cleveland and Carolina, looking more in control before the snap and more comfortable going through his progressions.
So what will Mayfield’s release time (snap-to-throw) be this fall? Will his mechanics stay the same? Did Canales have some sort of secret sauce that he took with him to Carolina?
If Mayfield’s release time begins rising, the Bucs certainly have all the film evidence they need to review and understand what’s happening and how to correct it, if they want to.
In 2021, when Matt Stafford first entered the Rams’ offense (the same offense the Bucs are expected to run this year with new playcaller Liam Coen), his release time increased to 2.8 seconds and the Rams won the Super Bowl. Stafford’s release time has dropped every season since.
August 31st, 2024 at 9:00 am
Oh, they want to!
August 31st, 2024 at 9:22 am
The truth will soon be revealed. Many fans will be upset once players fall back from overachieving last year.
August 31st, 2024 at 9:29 am
Release time won’t save Mayfield from the massive regression he’ll have this season. BOOK IT.
August 31st, 2024 at 9:32 am
I’m thinking the release time decreased due to the sequence being 1. SNAP 2. Mike’s open 3. Throw
Where before it was 1. SNAP 2. Wow, what a bunch of JAGs I have out there running routes.
August 31st, 2024 at 9:34 am
Doesn’t it make sense with more playing time, and experience his release time would speed up? Baker is in the prime of his career age wise. I’m expecting an even better Mayfield then last year. You either get better, or get worse a fired coach once said. I think Baker gets better.
August 31st, 2024 at 9:37 am
Trask To The Future Says:
August 31st, 2024 at 9:29 am
Release time won’t save Mayfield from the massive regression he’ll have this season. BOOK IT.
^^^^^^^^^^
You and MPTF need to start your very own “Little Miss Trask Fans” website. That way, you won’t have to deal with us pesky Bucs fans that actually care about the Bucs winning and stuff.
August 31st, 2024 at 9:39 am
Lets get this party started.
August 31st, 2024 at 9:42 am
That’s impressive data. Canalwater has proven to be a good QB coach, hopefully the changes Baler made are now “in his bones.”
Ironically, Canalwater had all the film in the world showing his run game was a failure, and he did nothing. Nor did Todd force him to do anything. Todd also has all the film from last year and preseason for his pass defense.
We hope the Big Surprise is coming for the WTF and their rookie QB.
August 31st, 2024 at 9:43 am
There’s no logical reason to assume he’d regress
August 31st, 2024 at 9:55 am
MVP baby 75-1 ,, book it , I did
August 31st, 2024 at 9:55 am
Quick and efficient route running is a key and it doesn’t hurt any to have one of the best receiver duos in the league with Mike and Chris. As long as the line can hold for just 3 seconds Baker should be able to find a target.
I’m confident, more than most seasons in the last 48, that this will be a great year.
August 31st, 2024 at 10:03 am
It appears that not only are Baker & Coen clicking but, the whole offense seems to be fired up on Coen’s offense. That’s a good sign. The motions and deception will keep the defenses thinking. Being able to get a creative run game going and doing it with authority is something we haven’t had in a while. That will only make our passing attack even more potent. And going to the line of scrimmage with the option of going to alternate plays depending on what the defense is showing should really pay off. If we can win our share of games early on while the offense works out the kinks of the new system, we can hit our stride on the back half of the season and get momentum headed into the playoffs like we did in 2020. I see us making some noise this season.
August 31st, 2024 at 10:04 am
Trask
“Release time won’t save Mayfield from the massive regression he’ll have this season. BOOK IT.”
So you’ve decided to challenge the Muncher to be President of #TeamNegative.
BOOK IT? LMAO So my dad was a bookie let’s talk. What are the stakes and what are the odds?
Give me a # that indicates MASSIVE regression. 4 wins? 5? Or perhaps 2 or 3 after all MASSIVE -exceptionally large.
Exceptional to me indicates the Bucs win 4 or fewer games and in fact should mean even less.
So give me a SPECIFIC result of Baker’s MASSIVE regression and we’re on.
I’ll take your bet!
August 31st, 2024 at 10:05 am
Even guys on here don’t like Baker. lol Real fans.
August 31st, 2024 at 10:18 am
These Can Do Canales/Pyle O’ Trash fanboys/girls are something else. They want the Bucs to collapse in some Schadenfreude wish. Come on, ladies. Baker has risen to every football occasion in his life. How can you not root for the guy?!
August 31st, 2024 at 10:24 am
Stpetebucfan – Bucs wins/losses won’t matter because his regression will be so bad he’ll lose the starting job.
August 31st, 2024 at 10:24 am
I think Canalles played the first three quarters of each game to try not to lose and win it in the 4th,, was happy with punting and field position ,, Liam will be more threatening which could mean more touchdowns , ints and points ,, more risk reward based
August 31st, 2024 at 10:25 am
Sad how many fans on here want us to loose just so they can be right and show their love of all things Trashk. Go BUCS!
August 31st, 2024 at 10:33 am
Trask To The Future Says:
August 31st, 2024 at 9:29 am
Release time won’t save Mayfield from the massive regression he’ll have this season. BOOK IT.
Dude get over it! You are the biggest crybaby on here. Poor trask can’t win the starting job so you are going to bash Baker every chance you get..trask will always be a career backup
August 31st, 2024 at 10:50 am
After last year Baker proved he could play at a high level. He was rewarded with a new contract. If he continues to improve the Bucs will win the NFC South and who knows how far they will go in the playoffs.
August 31st, 2024 at 10:52 am
Trask To The Future: If you’ll define “massive regression”, I’ll enjoy calling you on that at season’s end.
August 31st, 2024 at 10:55 am
JustVisting – worse than 20th in the league in passing yards and QBR. Also leading Bucs to more losses than wins in games he starts.
August 31st, 2024 at 10:55 am
It’s amazing that the Trask boot lickers think they’re QB gurus…How can you be a QB expert when you idolize a guy who has completed 30% of his passes in the NFL? Can you explain that to me?
August 31st, 2024 at 11:03 am
Joe, what’s Mahomes’ release time? Any idea?
August 31st, 2024 at 11:21 am
Trask to the Stupid is hilarious.
August 31st, 2024 at 11:21 am
Joe In Michigan,
No one idolizes Trask but he definitely has more upside potential than Mayfield. Give Trask a chance to play games with starters and you’d see the difference. But you keep on hating.
August 31st, 2024 at 11:22 am
OK, it’s a bet. Sorry we can’t put some $ behind it, but c’est la vie.
I don’t know the game well enough to make specific predictions, but I see Mayfield’s 2024 as falling somewhere between just shy of 2023 and a moderate amount better.
August 31st, 2024 at 11:23 am
I think she’s Kyle’s mom.
August 31st, 2024 at 11:25 am
Trask
OK that’s a good enough standard. Injuries of course are the wild card in the NFL.
IF both ME and CG went down that would put some pressure on the QB same if the OL got chewed because of injury. We are due. How many teams go an entire season with their entire OL in tact. We’re probably due for some this season.
Bpttom line if the team and Baker remain healthy I’ll take your bet. That is he will NOT be replaced by Trask for poor play.
Stakes should be simple. After 17 games and the end of the regular season if Baker hasn’t been pulled for poor play you simply come here and post…
“BOY WAS I REALLY WRONG!”
If Baker gets pulled for poor play I’ll be the one posting…
“BOY I WAS REALLY WRONG”.
Do we have a wager?
August 31st, 2024 at 11:29 am
Trask bois upset still
August 31st, 2024 at 11:36 am
I would like to see a commitment to the run. Play-action is key.
Screen passes are great for quick release with or without a fake hand off.
August 31st, 2024 at 11:41 am
more upside then Baker:::::
Based on what??? Based on a great college loss to Alabama where he was throwing to Kyle Pitts and Kadarius Toney? Yea it was a great game indeed but Baker too had some great college games ,, heck he broke Cleveland’s 635 day winless streak in his Debute!!
August 31st, 2024 at 12:05 pm
The WR and TE in Cleveland had some of the lowest separation stats every year. All these stats are great but have to look at the full picture to really understand the stats. Anyone watching those games can tell you despite the big names the group of catchers in Cleveland wasn’t good,
August 31st, 2024 at 12:06 pm
Baker and the Bics as a whole will be great.
I’m calling a Superbowl Title for us this season.
August 31st, 2024 at 12:10 pm
The Baker is great line of thinking is just fool hardy.
The reason most of us support Baker is that he is a man’s man and represents the average Joe.
That said, Love him or Hate him, Baker is our Bucs QB. Until he isn’t. Which could literally happen at any point based his track record of injury and under performance.
Trask is our only other option. Most important, he was DRAFTER to be our QB long term. You don’t draft Heisman finalist just to never play them, EVER.
So again, Love him or Hate him, Kyle represents out Bucs QB future. Until he isn’t.
As far as release times go. I bet JL and company would release him faster than 2.8 if Brady was available. LOL.
August 31st, 2024 at 12:24 pm
Surprised i am not. Sort of telling his best release time went downhill since rookie season until last year. Cleveland has a history of destroying QBs. So my question is, did it bump up when leaving Pathetic Panthers for the Rams? Would be amazed if it didn’t. IMO he will do even better than last year with Coen.Liam isn’t a rookie like Canoodle was 😁
August 31st, 2024 at 12:26 pm
Let the games begin…..Results will be apparent. Tired of speculating.
August 31st, 2024 at 12:31 pm
Trask to The Future: I don’t hate you or Trask. Maybe we’ll have to see what Trask has in a real game someday, but common sense tells me that it might not be a good thing.
August 31st, 2024 at 12:45 pm
This is why common sense is no longer a thing in society.
How can it be common sense to conclude something that quite literally is as unique of a situation as it gets.
For crying out loud, wish people would stop thinking they are smart because they repeat what the hear better than others.
Hear is some common sense. Numbers Don’t Lie!!!
August 31st, 2024 at 12:47 pm
Common sense tells me. The spelling and grammar police might be called on me.
August 31st, 2024 at 1:47 pm
This offense is going to out produce last season with: more wins, higher average points per game, and higher average yards per game! IMHO. No, it won’t be because BM6 willed it, but rather the offense is fielding a better TEAM and the offense is being run by a better OC. If the defense sputters, then only the last two predictions will come to pass.
August 31st, 2024 at 1:52 pm
An O line that comfortably protects a QB will always provide a QB greater release time. Only interested in Brady release time in last Super Bowl year. Why not provide that? Moreover, willing to bet big money that Jared Goff playing behind the best O Line in football has well over 3 seconds to get rid of the ball last year. Anyone doubting that should just replay last year Bucs game. More time means greater ability to get through progressions. Be careful citing silly stats. In football there is more than one size that fits all. The ability to sustain pass blocks is huge. Just ask any QB.
August 31st, 2024 at 2:20 pm
If there wasn’t a risk of finding myself buried in the Mohave Desert I would take any and all MVP bets at 75:1. Learned at an early age not to take advantage of people.
August 31st, 2024 at 2:25 pm
This is all you need to know.
With the season on the line, with Todd’s job on the line, Baker was a one-armed, one-legged cripple. Glennon was perfectly healthy. Coaches and management, at that critical juncture, thought so much of Glennon they had him hold the clipboard for that game, and Todd started the cripple, because the cripple gave the Bucs a better chance to win and Todd the better chance to keep his job.
Them’s the facts, but Glennon to the Stupid would rather live in the fantasy world where Glennon beat out everyone – however the evil Bucs continue to conspire against him.
The Glennonites just need to get and stay hammered until the day their boi gets his chance.
August 31st, 2024 at 2:39 pm
Advise all hope Trask does well if called on. Otherwise is plain stupid.
August 31st, 2024 at 3:11 pm
Wisecrack. “ The spelling and grammar police might be called on me.” Do you really think those of us on this sight would be so petty as to point out that you seem to have failed basic elementary grammar school?
August 31st, 2024 at 3:41 pm
I have nothing against Trask and I hope he has a great year and career and a long, happy life. If he beats Baker out for the starting job, more power to him; it’s not like anyone’s going hungry the next day. What I object to are the conspiracy theories around why he’s not starting, playing more, etc. Bowles, just like every other coach, gets paid to win. I don’t care if he handpicked four different quarterbacks and then decided to start Gholston at QB because he had a shroom-induced dream of victory…and neither does anyone else. If the Bucs won out he’d be hailed as a genius, and paid like one. The idea that he wouldn’t start whomever he considers to be his best quarterback is just laughable.
August 31st, 2024 at 3:41 pm
WiseCrack: It’s common sense to not want a QB who has completed 30% of his passes in the NFL to have to play. I know, you have every excuse in the world why that has happened. The Man has held Trask down, right?
August 31st, 2024 at 3:43 pm
Trask to future more like Trask on the bench book it pal
August 31st, 2024 at 3:47 pm
It’s like many of u get on this site just to argue & make really stupid posts I mean really stupid what a pack of morons
August 31st, 2024 at 4:07 pm
I’m with Gipper. The focus should be on making the best decision in the time available on any given play. I remember quite a few plays where Aaron Rogers
stepped out of the pocket and made big plays, often touchdowns. If you got all day,take it.
August 31st, 2024 at 5:19 pm
100% Trask should play!!!!!!!!!
In the second half for the Gators ,, they need some help against the Canes
August 31st, 2024 at 5:42 pm
Joe in Michigan – this “30%” thing doesn’t fly as it was a tiny sample. That’s like saying some RBs/WRs that have thrown TDs on trick plays and have 100% career completion rates are better than Tom Brady. Give it a rest! Trask hasn’t had a fair chance to play a single full game with a starting OL and WR Corp. Until he does, no one knows how he’ll do.
August 31st, 2024 at 5:43 pm
Stpetebucsfan – deal. I’d be happy to post that if Mayfield has a good season. I just think he’ll have a bad a year. We’ll see.
August 31st, 2024 at 6:44 pm
Trask to the future, be careful what you wish for. You just might get it.
August 31st, 2024 at 7:18 pm
Trask To The Future: We can agree to disagree. You think that there was a conspiracy to keep Trask from playing, I think he HASN’T EARNED PLAYING TIME.
August 31st, 2024 at 7:57 pm
Dave Pear summed up the Bucs’ coaching and management assessment of Trask to the tee. Last season in week 18 Bowles and his staff chose to start a badly banged
up Baker Mayfield who was at best 25% over his backup. Now think if the Bucs had for example, one of the following as their backup QB: Gardner Minshew, Joshua Dobbs, Taylor Heinicke or even Jameis….. I would bet Bowles would have went with any if these guys in that game which basically decided if he would get launched or not. Keep in mind Carolina played Tampa tough just a few weeks before. Good take Dave Pear.
September 1st, 2024 at 1:10 am
I have faith in Trask if he gets his opportunity, but this post isn’t about Trask.
Canales knew exactly what he had in Baker and designed the offense around him to exactly what is talked about in this article.
That’s why I knew from day one there wasn’t a QB competition last year.
The Canales offense was a one read and react offense. The evidence is in the receptions numbers and the eyeballs if you watched any of the games. Canales tried to create open runners with route combos, but they weren’t designed with the idea of the QB in mind picking between intermediate routes. If the 1st read isn’t there then checkdown or tuck, run and slide. It’s not a mystery as to why White had 70 targets.
Canales kept preaching get the ball out quick. He didn’t want Mayfield back there doing tap dances going through progressions.
It’s a guarantee defenses are going to adjust because that kind of offense is the best kind of offense for Baker. They didn’t turn the ball over and stayed in games with their defense (most of the time).
Looks to me like not much is going to change under Cohen – perhaps a more effective run game and a shitload of draws and screens. Again – take the pressure off Baker and shape the play call to keep the QB choices to a minimum.
September 1st, 2024 at 1:17 am
Baker wanted to play in that last game. He wasn’t coming off the field.
It is what it is.
Now he’s the unquestioned starter. It’s time to roll.
Its a new season and it starts in 7 days.
September 1st, 2024 at 4:51 am
No matter what Canales may or may not take credit for, I am still on board that Baker will be much better and quicker this season. His 2nd season with us. All the players seem very happy with OC Coen. There is great chemistry and we as fans feel it too. I haven’t heard anyone say that they miss Canales words of wisdom. He was only an OC for one season. Nice guy, but he isn’t our OC and we will be playing against them for the win. Go Bucs!
September 1st, 2024 at 9:09 am
An improved running game will give bakes more time to throw.
September 1st, 2024 at 10:45 am
Right on, FtMyersDave.
And JustVisiting – starting Gholston at QB after the “shroom induced vision of victory!”
I literally guffawed and spewed coffee. Awesome! LOL.
September 1st, 2024 at 4:58 pm
So are you guys going to hold Baker Mayfield accountable if he plays bad or you going to blame everyone else is the real question ? Are you going to call it like you see it or are going to blame Bowles for Baker’s play on the field if he plays bad ? I see Dave Pear is back bashing Todd Bowles now that the season is here. And just remember this if Bowles gets fired this year that means Baker is out of here as well because the new HC will want his own quarterback. So to the Baker fans you better hope Bowles don’t get fired because Baker will be gone as well.
September 1st, 2024 at 11:43 pm
Oates – everyone will hold you accountable, you’re the real QB whisperer in the universe. Has Licht contacted you yet?
September 1st, 2024 at 11:46 pm
Oates = Otard autocorrect t is funny. Oates is probably better. The only thing fond of Oates is horses.
September 2nd, 2024 at 1:50 am
Dave fear. Again I see you will blame everyone else if Baker plays bad 😂 you already started blaming Bowles and the season haven’t started yet you setting it up the excuses! It’s just a freaking football game it ain’t that deep it’s ok to tell it like it is. But I will suggest that you support Bowles because if he gets fired your boy Baker is out of here.