Oddsmakers Down On Baker Mayfield Production
July 8th, 2024
First, a disclaimer. You won’t find Joe making a season wager on a player in early July.
But yes, many fans make those kinds of bets and Joe has an intriguing line to share on Baker Mayfield.
Mayfield threw for 3,725 yards as a Browns rookie in 2018, posting stunning per-game numbers in 13 starts. A year later, Mayfield wasn’t nearly as efficient but threw for 3,827 yards. Then came 2020, Mayfield had a beastly running game and greatly improved his completion percentage, and he cut his season interception total to 8 from 21. But his passing yards dropped to 3,563.
In 2021, Mayfield was hurt through the season and he was an an NFL castoff in 2022. Last year, he rebounded with the Bucs to throw for 4,044 yards, a career high — with a career best completion percentage of 64.3.
So three times in Mayfield’s career he’s busted 3,700 yards passing, including crushing that total last season.
That’s why Joe has an eye on the season over/under for Mayfield’s total passing yardage. It currently sits at over/under 3,650.5 yards on the DraftKings sportsbook.
Mayfield easily could miss a game and still hit that number.
Will the Bucs have a running game this season to cut into Mayfield’s passing attempts? Joe can’t go there now.
For those wondering, the oddsmakers join the throng of national media gushing over Kirk Cousins. His passing over/under for this season is 4,000.5 yards.
July 8th, 2024 at 9:20 pm
My money is on Baker $$
July 8th, 2024 at 9:34 pm
Baker should be in the neighborhood of 4500 passing yards this year.
Sounds like an easy win if Mayfield plays 17 games….
He’d probably still get the 3650 even if he misses a couple games.
July 8th, 2024 at 10:42 pm
Take Bake and let ‘em eat cake!
July 8th, 2024 at 11:13 pm
Bucs over, Falcons under.
July 9th, 2024 at 12:16 am
This is easy money. Take the over with a small farm.
July 9th, 2024 at 12:43 am
I’m not a Baker fan, but that number is pretty low. 3600 yards is nothing – even a mediocre QB like Baker can get 4000 yards throwing to Evans and Godwin in a 17 game schedule. Also, Bowles proved last year that it doesn’t matter how bad Baker plays, he’s going to keep playing him, so I don’t think you need to worry too much about that. It just comes down to injury in my mind – and Baker does play a risky style, although no longer needing to play for a contract, maybe he backs off that a bit. Still, if I was going to bet, I’d certainly take the over – as I would for almost every starting QB in the NFL.
July 9th, 2024 at 12:56 am
Don’t let Logan the Oaf get near Baker in practice.
Hoe in Muschigan, it’s known how you appreciate these references.
July 9th, 2024 at 12:58 am
It’s not like the nay-sayers have any fallback, they better hope Baker can be as good as last season!?
The back up QB squad only thinly disguises their desire by alleging their “concern” of a regression by Mayfield.
We all know that a portion of the naysayers want Trask, and another are convinced we should have tanked for a CHANCE to participate in this season’s QB lottery. One of this group would rather defend Goldstein, the other wouldn’t care if we mortgaged the future just to have a shot at drafting Jameis, again.
Doesn’t matter the reason, you better hope Baker will up last seasons resurgence
July 9th, 2024 at 3:05 am
Joe … ‘Will the Bucs have a running game this season to cut into Mayfield’s passing attempts? Joe can’t go there now.’
Aahh yes, the intrigue mounts. Will the Bucs finally find a running game? And IF they do, what would that look like? And how would it impact Baker’s passing game statistics? So many questions, so few answers, because Joe can’t go there, yet.
Sure you can Joe; you like all the rest of us speculate all the time. That’s what Joe Bucs Fan is … speculation. In the form of different opinions, sometimes even backed up by records of past performance extrapolated into projections of future performance. And that’s what makes JBF fun.
So go ahead, let it fly. Tackle your own question … ‘Will the Bucs have a running game this season to cut into Mayfield’s passing attempts?’
July 9th, 2024 at 3:05 am
BTW, I vote Yes (but minimal impact), because we’ve made several improvements this off-season to up our running game (wouldn’t be that hard me thinks since we were #32 in the league last 2 seasons). And IF that comes to fruition (improved running game), our run-pass ratio SHOULD increase to closer to 45%.
A total of 3 teams last season (Steelers, Texans & Rams) had records of 10-7 (which is where both you & I and many JBFers see us finishing this year). Average plays on the season for those? 1069 plays (Bucs had 1047 plays last year). IF we total 1069 plays this year, and IF we run on 45% of those 1069 plays, we’d have 481 running plays & 588 passing plays, minus the number of sacks that Baker takes (last year that was 40).
Based on that speculation, Baker would end up with 548 passing attempts (as opposed to the 566 he had this past season). We’d end up in the same ballpark IOW, and Baker’s stats would probably be very similar to what he got in 2023 (his career Yards/Attempt of 7.2 is just about the 7.1 YPA that he got this past year).
July 9th, 2024 at 4:38 am
Not a gambling better, but this will be Baker’s year 🎲🎲🏈🏈 It is his 2nd season with the Bucs along with veteran players, and he has a past with Coen too.
DR, you are always thorough with your stats along with readable explanations. The Data Scientist of football!
July 9th, 2024 at 7:20 am
In my opinion, the running game extends drives through first downs. Keeps the ball in Mayfield’s hands. More time of possession and more chance to increase passing yards. If the running game is just middle of the pack and the defense can get off the field a little more we’ll be a dangerous team to face.
July 9th, 2024 at 7:33 am
Why don’t these brilliant analysts *cough-cough* ever consider the notion that Mayfield might be a genuine #1 pick who finally has the effective support of a quality organization?
Oh, I think I just answered my own question. :-/
July 9th, 2024 at 8:19 am
Bucnjim … ‘the running game extends drives through first downs. Keeps the ball in Mayfield’s hands. More time of possession and more chance to increase passing yards.’
That’s something that’d be fascinating to explore (the relationship between rushing 1st downs & passing productivity). Gut feel is that the better rushing teams would have more 1st downs by rushing, and that SHOULD result in higher TOP, and probably more production in the passing game. Probably vary a bunch among different teams and over different seasons.
Looking at just 2 teams that were 9-8 last year (Bucs & Colts), the Colts were by far the better rushing team (479 rushes for 2059 rushing yards, 113 rushing 1st downs, 19 rushing TDs) and they scored a total of 396 points on the season, ranking #10. Their passing game produced 3666 yards (after subtracting sack losses) on 574 passing attempts (61.8% completions) with 18 TDs against only 10 INTs. They ranked #20 in passing yardage, and their TOP was 28:58 average on the season.
The Bucs on the other hand were far worse at rushing (439 rushes for 1509 rushing yards, 79 rushing 1st downs, 8 rushing TDs) and we scored a total of 348 points on the season, ranking #20. Our passing game produced 3812 yards on 568 passing attempts (64.3% completions) with 28 TDs against only 10 INTs. We ranked #17 in passing yardage, and our TOP was 29:35 average on the season.
So it looks like the Colts were unquestionably the better rushing team, and their offense did in fact generate more 1st downs (335 vs our 300). They ran the ball 40 times more on the season, but much more effectively (4.3 YPA vs our 3.4 YPA). They passed the ball slightly more than we did (574 vs our 568 attempts), yet we produced more in the passing game. They also ended up with the lower TOP (28:58 vs our 29:35 on the season). They did generate 47 more offensive plays on the season (1094 vs our 1047), and yet we both ended up 9-8 … and we made the playoffs. Reason? Although they had the better offense (#10 vs our #20), our defense was far better (#7 vs their #28) and that made a huge difference.
July 10th, 2024 at 4:41 am
Colts was 10-7 I’m last year DR .
July 10th, 2024 at 5:43 am
Mayfields “supporting cast” is gonna be way better.
Better, more experienced OC/playcaller in Coen.
Better, more experienced, better utilized recieving corp. See Coen.
Better more experienced RB and running game. White now understands he has to hit the LOS instead of dancing behind it. White and Baker both will have a much improved O line. Possible exception of LG.
All of this should make Bakers job a whole lot easier than last year. I don’t see all this regression that seems so popular this week.
Go Bucs!