Fear And Loathing With Receiving Stats
July 4th, 2024
Enlightening or misleading stats?
Even though Joe often rails on stats (specifically with baseball), Joe is not anti-stats. Stats are just information. Who doesn’t want more information?
(Don’t get Joe started on the PFF tribe’s freakin’ grades.)
Where Joe’s brain clicks off on football stats is when the numbers guys start throwing around “expected” and “adjusted.” No, no, no, no, no. That’s playing hopscotch with numbers to try to fit a predetermined outcome.
Joe had a high school teacher once say stats can be twisted any way you like in order to prove a point. Joe hears his voice when Joe reads “expected” or “adjusted” stats.
Take receiver error stats. Joe really enjoys Warren Sharp’s insight into statistics, but it’s a lot of educated guessing with his receiver error stats.
In Sharp’s calculations, a receiver error is when a receiver drops a ball, falls down or pulls a DeSean Jackson Special and quits on a route. Very, very subjective.
It takes a bit of witchcraft to determine if a guy ran a bad route. How does one know? These routes are so intricate they are sometimes broken down into half-yards or even steps. Unless one is in the huddle, one doesn’t know what route a guy was supposed to run.
But when Joe noticed that Sharp had Bucs pass catchers committing an error that led to a third-down incompletion only 13 percent of the time, to Joe that made sense. We’re talking about Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and Rachaad White here. They are excellent in the passing game.
Then it hit Joe: Uh, oh. That’s not good for Baker Mayfield.
% of 3rd down incompletions which were due to receiver error:
28% – Joe Burrow
27% – Kyler Murray
26% – Matthew Stafford
26% – Justin Herbert
23% – C.J. Stroud
22% – Dak Prescott
21% – Will Levis
18% – Trevor Lawrence
18% – Aidan O'Connell
18% – Joshua Dobbs
17% – Kirk Cousins…— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) July 3, 2024
July 4th, 2024 at 2:12 am
No, not good at all. We need a running game.
And the band played on.
July 4th, 2024 at 5:15 am
Stats are a tool that can be used to identify problems. But its not the only one,
you can’t fix anything without observation and defining parameters of your data
to get clear picture.
July 4th, 2024 at 5:38 am
Joe … ‘These routes are so intricate they are sometimes broken down into half-yards or even steps. Unless one is in the huddle, one doesn’t know what route a guy was supposed to run.’
Excellent point Joe, but not sure it supports the conclusion ‘Then it hit Joe: Uh, oh. That’s not good for Baker Mayfield.’
Look at what Baker was facing last year. A new OC who’d never called plays at the NFL level before. Two Pro-level receivers in Evans & Godwin who he’d never worked with before, and who both run can be very deceptive in their routes. Four very young receivers in Palmer, Jarrett, Otton & Durham who he’d also never worked with before, but whose inexperience at the NFL level more than likely came into play quite often. An OLine that had ‘issues’ and quite often didn’t exactly set a clean pocket. Plus a nearly non-existent running game that often left us with 2nd-and-long or 3rd-and-long. And oh ya, Baker did kinda take a beating last season.
Not from stats, but what I really expect this season is for Baker to be much more comfortable … and more precise … in this offense this year. McMillan will be a nice addition I have a feeling, our OLine will provide better pass protection, and our running game has nowhere to go but up. Also feel that Coen will be a significant upgrade over Canales, especially in the running game & short passing game. All of that helps Baker, IF he can stay healthy for the whole season.
July 4th, 2024 at 5:41 am
Way too subjective. Doesn’t take into account the offensive line or the play caller and the play he called.
Too many moving parts to narrow things down like that. You can have the slowest reciever in the NFL run a perfect route and be exactly where he’s supposed to be, but he’s slow as hell and covered like a blanket. No chance of a completion. QB’s fault?
July 4th, 2024 at 6:52 am
I thought your teacher would repeat the old trope,
Lies, Damn lies, and Statistics.
July 4th, 2024 at 7:34 am
If Sharps crew of kids that record these things are any good, this is a more interesting stat.
With Cincinnati (Burrow) being so high on the list, it could be the big reason that Boyd is gone and that Higgins was not given a long-term contract. It may also actually explain which quarterbacks have a harder ball to catch.
I would like to see Sharps numbers when Brady was here.
July 4th, 2024 at 8:08 am
‘These routes are so intricate they are sometimes broken down into half-yards or even steps. Unless one is in the huddle, one doesn’t know what route a guy was supposed to run. That being said Joe, there are so many comments about how a guy is or isn’t a good route runner that’s proof right there that no one can truly rate a receiver unless they know what play was being run directly from the playbook and huddle. The only thing you can truly see is that a receiver is lazy in his brakes or if he quits. That’s only going to determine if a receiver is a bad route runner if he is constantly being lazy or quits. It’s very subjective.
July 4th, 2024 at 10:07 am
That’s why you never see Joe write about routes. Joe has no clue what route a guy is supposed to run. Joe’s not in the huddle. And that’s not fair to readers to guess or pretend like Joe knows.
Joe remembers asking a former Bucs starting receiver how it is that announcers know what routes a guy is supposed to run and how they know if someone ran a good or a bad route. He smiled at Joe and said, “They don’t.”
July 4th, 2024 at 10:53 am
Eh, I don’t think it necessarily means anything negative for Baker just from this stat alone. You’d have to factor in protection and whether the pass rush got to him as well on top of this, to determine how much falls in baker when it comes to 3rd down failures. And as has been pointed out- Sharp doesn’t actually know what routes are being assigned in a given play. All you can do is watch tape and make an educated guess.
Let’s also not forget that a few different analysts said that many of the route concepts from Canales’ offense last year were sloppy / muddy, and resulted in receivers being too close to one another…
July 4th, 2024 at 3:44 pm
In 2023 media was raving about Mayfield passer rating on third down was way above the NFL average. Don’t do that with receivers running the wrong routes.
Many time it was due to receivers getting the ball short of the line of gain and making plays but they were where they were suppose to be.
When receivers were covered and the throws were tougher Mayfield’s delivery was the cause of the incompletions more times than not.
With pass plays based on timing there would have been more interceptions if receivers were off their routes although many passes did bounce of defenders hands and could be attributed to both a Receiver or the QB
July 4th, 2024 at 4:43 pm
I’m laughing here in Skibbereen. What a stupid stat. Baker is going to be one of the best QB’s in the NFL this season. The team is well put together to contend for their third SB. It’s going to happen and Baker is going to be terrific. Keeping it real in Ireland.
July 5th, 2024 at 8:09 pm
I am 1/2 Irish u got that rite, morst of these jokers posting stupid stuff seems to b contagious theme on this site,