Was It Baker Mayfield Or Was It Dave Canales?
July 19th, 2024
Addressing the credit.
Joe knows it is sort of in fashion to dump on former Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales. He’s now the head honcho in Charlotte.
But really, Canales had bright spots. For example, too many players had career years or near-career years for Joe to think it was just a simple coincidence. If we’re going to crap on Canales for his fetish for running up the middle with a bad running back, for never scoring a touchdown on the opening drive and for never rallying the offense from behind in the fourth quarter, then we also have to give him credit for the good.
That brings Joe to Baker Mayfield. The Bucs quarterback had a career-year in his first year with the Bucs. Ended up in the Pro Bowl. If not Mayfield, it’s unlikely the Bucs would have been two plays (maybe) from the NFC title game.
In particular, Mayfield and the Bucs were pretty damn good on third downs. Warren Sharp has the numbers.
On third downs last season, Mayfield ranked:
#6 in EPA/att
#8 in first down conversion rate
#9 in YPA
#10 in success rate
#12 in completion rateMost of these were, by far, career-best marks.
Was this because Canales was dialing up the right plays? Or was Mayfield just that clutch?
Joe knows the following is pretty likely: after the 2024 season, much will be known about Liam Coen, Mayfield and Canales, too.
July 19th, 2024 at 10:08 am
Didn’t seem like Tampa had a lot of 3rd and shorts, after 2 runs up the gut for 2 or 3 yards total it seem like to me Canales put the players in bad situations. I give it to the players performing not Canales’s game management.
July 19th, 2024 at 10:14 am
I think its both of them although I do think canales is getting way too much credit for baker success last year the national media is acting like Dave was this great offensive guru which he wasn’t for a first time play caller he was decent and I think he has a bright future in this league but bucs were dead last in rushing and offensively were bottom of the league in a lot of stats. Coach bowles said it best a few months ago at he combine I believe baker bailed out canales at times and canales bailed out baker at times goes hand in hand.
July 19th, 2024 at 10:17 am
Or … was it because Mayfield had the most talented receiving corps he has had in his career (sort of like Geno Smith had his best year under Canales but also had the best receiving duo he has ever had as a starter).
July 19th, 2024 at 10:22 am
Not scoring on the first possession all season is game planning. This falls directly on Canales not the QB!
July 19th, 2024 at 10:25 am
Mayfield deserves a lot of credit
July 19th, 2024 at 10:25 am
The answer is both.
There were thing Canales had that protected Mayfield from himself and Mayfield was good enough(at times) to make the most of a given look from Dave.
Good, bad, or indifferent the answer is always both.
Canales was a 1st time OC being asked to win with Baker Mayfield.
That’s like going to McDonalds and expecting your quarter pounder to be A5 wagyu, but somehow we still managed to win 8 games, I’d say 9 but offense gets NO credit for the season finale in my eyes, none because it was the opposite of finishing strong.
July 19th, 2024 at 10:29 am
as much as I bust on bake… I will say he fights like a champ on 3rd downs and probably is responsible for those numbers…
it’s 1st and 2nd I want improvement on…..
1st is a given run up the middle 2nd is wait until mike gets open and pray he does not drop it.
maybe I should ease up on “the situation”?
July 19th, 2024 at 10:30 am
Joe, what’s your definition of clutch? How exactly is Mayfield clutch? Honest question. How was he clutch on the final drive of the season?
July 19th, 2024 at 10:31 am
I honestly think Canales and Mayfield were a good pairing last year.
However, in my 50 plus years of watching the NFL, I have seen plenty of years where an OC was good in his first season in the NFL and then became worse and worse as teams figured out the OC tendency.
I call it the Chip Kelly effect.
There are so few Andy Reid’s out there that can do it with vastly different guys and always seem to have a good offense.
In the end, my guess is that Canales is a below average caller of plays who succeeded a little better than anticipated last year due to folks not knowing his tendencies.
July 19th, 2024 at 10:37 am
Team conversions IMO gives an good picture of how well the OC, the QB & the TEAM performed in critical situations. 3rd Down Conversion Percentage (3D%), 4th Down Conversion Percentage (4D%), and Red Zone Touchdown Percentage (RZ%) are typically highest for teams that do the best on the season. Duh. Here’s how our Bucs have performed since 2019, to include how the offense ranked overall in Points Scored …
o 2019: 41.5% 3D% … 52.9% 4D% … 64.8% RD% … Rank #3
o 2020: 43.5% 3D% … 57.1% 4D% … 68.9% RD% … Rank #3
o 2021: 41.5% 3D% … 57.3% 4D% … 66.2% RD% … Rank #2
o 2022: 37.4% 3D% … 55.6% 4D% … 52.0% RD% … Rank #25
o 2023: 41.5% 3D% … 66.7% 4D% … 44.9% RD% … Rank #20
Not hard to see that in 2022 we hit the bottom of the barrel (37.4% 3D conversion is REALLY BAD), but we rebounded last season by converting a more respectable 41.5% of our 3rd Down opportunities. Also easy to see though that we sucked at scoring TDs when we got into the Red Zone (the 44.9% last season was the lowest we’ve seen since 2008 when Chucky got fired for among other things only converting a dismal 39.3% of our Red Zone opportunities into TDs).
Not hard to see why Todd Bowles wants a better running game. Bucs only scored 8 TDs rushing all last season, ranking us well into the bottom third tier of all NFL teams (at #28). It’d also help us convert more 3rd Down opportunities.
July 19th, 2024 at 10:41 am
It was Baker when we won, it was Canales when we lost…
July 19th, 2024 at 10:42 am
I have to go with Mayfield & the players. I believe we will forget the 15 minutes Canales was here after this upcoming season. As I’ve said here a few times before, Canales wasn’t bad but, he wasn’t all that impressive either.
July 19th, 2024 at 10:47 am
The numbers are so good on 3rd down because we often wasted 1st and 2nd down with those ridiculous HB dive plays for 1 yard out of the shotgun. The offense had way too many 3rd and long situations last year which forced Baker to play hero-ball.
Canales wasn’t a bad OC and there’s a chance he could’ve improved in Year 2 by designing some better run schemes. We didn’t even have a run scheme last year, it was just HB dive.
Coen comes from the McVay tree which means there will be a run scheme and they’ll be more aggressive on early downs.
July 19th, 2024 at 10:54 am
The only thing I regret is that Canales didn’t stay and qualify us for comp picks
July 19th, 2024 at 11:00 am
Ya gotta give Canalwater credit, his 23rd ranked offense was ranked higher than Todd’s 29th ranked pass defense. So, he had that going for him. Since Tepper had the 32nd ranked offense and a better pass defense than Todd, he pulled the trigger. When you’re the worst, mediocre looks pretty good.
July 19th, 2024 at 11:01 am
Chicken or the egg? Agreed, only time will tell…
July 19th, 2024 at 11:18 am
I think Baker found his perfect fit with the Bucs and also had the players surrounding him with respect. I like Canales, but he isn’t the person that made Baker. Baker already had it in him and finally found an entire team that saw it too.
July 19th, 2024 at 11:26 am
The superior capability for a lethal passing game has been around since BA arrived and put JaMiss and his 30 picks and 12 fumbles in the dumpster.
If Canalwater would have called more early passes instead of those courageous Matador Dives, who knows.
Coen and GRizzard need to take Todd out of the football stone-age and treat him to a more explosive brand of football. Todd wants that, they need to deliver that.
July 19th, 2024 at 11:30 am
With all the time Canales spent with Pete Carroll I went back and took a look at how the Seahawks did on their 1st drives.
In 2022 Seahawks first drives in the first five games resulted in 3 TD’s, 1 FG, and 1 Punt. Seahawks were also 6th in 1st Quarter Points that year and were not any worse than 16th the last 5 seasons. Carroll was good at getting the team off to good starts and I would think Canales was taking extensive notes.
Lack of production in the Red Zone is more lack of execution than play calling.
After all the calls were good enough to get them there in the first place.
One thing for sure is Game 1 against the Panthers, on their first play, they will face a loaded box, and CAR will run the ball between the tackles.
July 19th, 2024 at 11:37 am
FB is a team game…Yeah, the QB/OC/Combo package gets the credit or blame, but it’s a team sport.
Had the team not made some plays in DEC/JAN…to turn the OCT/NOV 1-6 slide into a heroic 5-1 closing turnaround…Flipping the script from the cliff fall nose dive towards a top 5 pick in the draft the Bucs looked to be heading for…It’s 100% likely neither Canales or Bake are setting pretty in 2024.
For me, it’s the full compliment of Bucs players that made both those guys their money. But of the 2 the article focuses on, I’m giving Baker the nod. He basically had a repeat of his 2020 season efficiencies, when 100% needed it!
IMO…Bake had much more incentive to succeed knowing he was on his 3rd 2nd chance…But he had also proven he could be/has been that good before…While Canales hadn’t called plays since he was coaching Middle School FB – which really showed at multiple points in 2023.
July 19th, 2024 at 11:40 am
We’ll see how good Dave Canales is. As of this moment, he strikes me as Dirk Koeter 2.0.
July 19th, 2024 at 11:44 am
“If not Mayfield, it’s unlikely the Bucs would have been two plays (maybe) from the NFC title game.”
I agree with that statement. If not for Baker turning the ball over, we would have won that game. It was his fault we were in a position to lose.
And THAT is why Mayfield gets not national respect.
July 19th, 2024 at 11:49 am
Fan of the South – Good research information about the Seahawks and Canales.
Unsure how many notes Canales actually took. We didn’t carry a lead through to the end at times. Depended on field goals more than TDs. Continuously ran up the middle. That would be on Canales too. In one of the other articles here we found out that Canales wasn’t aggressive with the players but mostly the guy that was a rah rah positivity guy, and the players were not too sure of him for the longest time. That says so much.
We will find out soon enough what Coen and Grizzard have up their sleeves. And we will see how Canales does as HC for the Panthers.
July 19th, 2024 at 12:19 pm
ENOUGH WITH CANALES …
1. He was here for just one (1) season.
We talk about him more than Monte Kiffen.
2. He had the 21st ranked offense and 32nd ranked run.
Some of us would like to forget him.
3. He’s the enemy’s head coach.
If you are Joe-BUCS-Fan? Then, start acting like it.
If you need newsworthy ideas …
1. NFCS REVIEW. Players play games. Look at the opposing team depth chart and what actually changed? Who got better/worse?
(BTW, Saints are in really bad place. HUGE news yesterday!)
2. RAHEEM MORRIS HC TAKE 3. How many people knew he’s been a HC on 2 occasions? All this hype about ATL. What’s Rah’s actual history as a head coach in year 1? What should be expect? It’s SHOCKING and consistent.
3. Canales as CAROLINA HC. How have rookie head coaches faired since 2008? Yikes! Could Carolina actually be worse?
4. IS BAKER DOUBT REAL? So much talk about Baker being erratic from year to year. Is that just a media opinion or statistically real? Check the stats and doubt believe the hype.
July 19th, 2024 at 12:20 pm
Both but Mayfield gave us an identity.
July 19th, 2024 at 12:24 pm
“Canales … his fetish for running up the middle with a bad running back”
You are assuming it was Canales’ fetish and not Bowles’ fetish. How do you know Bowles’ wasn’t dictating from above? Wasn’t the season before Canales the same crap?
July 19th, 2024 at 12:33 pm
What was our offensive identity?
July 19th, 2024 at 2:12 pm
Trask would have taken us further. Baker threw interceptions on his first and last drives against the Lions and threw a lot of bad passes and made a lot of bad decisions. Many times he failed to call the correct protection at the line and took sacks because of it. He did a decent job last year but Kyle will out play him this year and will be the starter on opening day
July 19th, 2024 at 2:15 pm
Buccaneer Bonzai Says: “We’ll see how good Dave Canales is. As of this moment, he strikes me as Dirk Koeter 2.0.” I have to agree with that.
Whoa SlyPirate! You do have some good points. You are right, Canales is our competitor. I actually don’t think the Falcons and Panthers will be that great this year, no matter how much hype they get. Baker is the real deal. He found his fit with the Bucs. Thinking we will see much more from him this season. Can’t wait!
July 19th, 2024 at 2:16 pm
My gosh, your constant claiming of “2 plays away from the NFC Championship” is so disingenuous and borderline fabrication. 2 plays – as in a missed chipshot field goal by DET and an 80 yard Hail Mary TD by the Bucs? And then a successful 2 point conversion?
Going by those standards, just about every team in every game is “2 plays away from a win.”
July 19th, 2024 at 2:53 pm
When Canales finally realized his scheme wasn’t getting any rushing yards, he let Baker sling it and Baker did his thing.
All Mayfield as we’ll see the Panthers struggle offensively
July 19th, 2024 at 4:33 pm
Boss says that was u r best posting in a year where did that come from u r wife?
July 19th, 2024 at 4:52 pm
ATLFALCON – Trask can’t get off the pine. But, yeah, sure he would have done better. The decision makers earning millions of dollars to either win or get fired figured a one-legged half-armed Baker gave the Bucs a better chance to win than Kyle “Mike Glennon Jr” Trashk. And they won.
Take your hypothetical fantasy back to your closet with the bacon fat and your Kyle poster.
Imbecillin is a strong drug.
July 19th, 2024 at 5:28 pm
Well, we will just have to see about that Mr Pear. Despite your insults, I still think that task will outplay Baker in the preseason
July 19th, 2024 at 6:15 pm
And just because the coaches saw it to start, Baker does not mean that he is better than Kyle. The greatest coach in NFL history, Belichick started Drew Bledsoe over the goat so kill that argument.
July 19th, 2024 at 6:21 pm
I Think it was Mike Evans. He made Josh McCown look good. He made Winston look good. He made Fitz look good. He made a 42-44 year old Brady look good. He made Johnny Frikkin’ Manzel look good. And yes, he made Baker and Canales look good last year.
July 19th, 2024 at 6:47 pm
You see about as well as Helen Keller only without her insight, ATLFalcons fan.
Baker might play 8 snaps this preseason. The dude your love fantasy needs to outplay is Wolford.
July 19th, 2024 at 6:52 pm
Canales had a mixed year. Second half wins happened when he finally figured out that he had to get more creative (after the defense was half gassed).
We’re going to see a more dynamic approach this year — more creative.
Our guys are going to take these misguided FB “analysts” to the woodshed!
Super excited for this season. We’re going to see a team that has really jelled!
Go Bucs!
July 19th, 2024 at 7:08 pm
bucnjim Says:
July 19th, 2024 at 10:22 am
“Not scoring on the first possession all season is game planning. This falls directly on Canales not the QB!”
EXCELLENT point!
July 19th, 2024 at 7:19 pm
We were healthy and several on the team have talked about a reset after the mid-season losing streak and that they seemed to start clicking for the 2nd half of the season.
Some of that success has to be from the QB – but the scheme was important.
July 19th, 2024 at 7:19 pm
I’ve been wondering about the Jekyll and Hyde performance of the offense.
How much of the struggles were on the planning and how much on execution?
Sure would be interesting to know how the game plan in general and play calling differed, if at all, between the games where we looked pretty good eg Green Bay, Philly, etc and the ones where we sucked so badly.
High hopes in 24!
Definitely a tale of 2 offenses.
July 19th, 2024 at 10:21 pm
Dave
If Mayfield’s play meets your standards you probably are a late comer to the game of football. Or, perhaps you’re mistaking moxy with good quarterback play. I challenge you to watch an All 22 of any games this past season. Any game that he doesn’t miss multiple wide open receivers or doesn’t see wide open players, you let me know!!
July 20th, 2024 at 1:37 am
ATLoser –
Take it up with the coaches. They’re the ones who think your boy sucks. Or better yet – watch the All 22 of your boy.
Oh, sorry. You can’t. Because the people that matter think the guy who should be in an ambulance gives them a better chance to win.
Mcfly? Hello?
July 20th, 2024 at 2:38 am
Wolford will be Baker’s backup in 2024. Kyle will exhibit excellent clipboard security in street clothes.
July 20th, 2024 at 4:27 am
Dave Pear, you could be right about Wolford being Baker’s backup. He worked with Coen at the Rams in 2019, 2020, and 2022.
July 20th, 2024 at 7:46 am
“Not scoring on the first possession all season is game planning. This falls directly on Canales not the QB!”
This is like blaming the chef for your waiter dropping your martini/cosmo on the way to the table lol
Coach call plays
players play the play out and give it legs
once the call is in the huddle
it’s on the 11 men to do what the call needs each individual player to do to make the play as successful as possible.
July 20th, 2024 at 8:39 am
This was Canales first go as an OC and he did ok. He was just QB coach in Seattle. Baker already had 2 good years before 2023. It was more Baker healing and regaining his confidence after being screwed over in Cleveland. Naturally as Karma would have it Depervert is a disaster. Good guy good Karma old guy had a nice 5 game run for the Browns but imploded in the playoffs. If anything Dave held Baker back by insisting on the 3 yards and a cloud of dust Woody Hayes method. Then Dave panicked in the 4th and let Baker run the no huddle. If the defense had stopped ATL1 and Texans on the last drives Bucs would have won 11.
July 20th, 2024 at 8:58 am
More chip board fodder
Benjamin: Baker is an easy guy to root for, and a perfect fit for the scrappy Buccaneers. He leaves it all on the line, and he fully earned his new deal to be Tampa Bay’s quarterback of the near future. Yet isn’t it possible we’re putting a little too much stock into a 9-8 season in which he almost didn’t escape the NFC South? We’ve had five years of Mayfield as a starter, and two of them have been playoff-caliber. He may well have the Bucs fighting at the top of the South again, but he still feels more like a spoiler than a contender.
Dubin: Similar to the way Geno Smith took a step backward last season after Canales left for Tampa, I think Mayfield could do the same now that the former Buccaneers OC is in Carolina.
Podell: Mayfield produced career numbers in completion percentage (64.3%), passing yards (4,044) and passing touchdowns (28), ranking as a top 10 quarterback in the entire league in yards (ninth) and passing touchdowns (seventh). Mayfield even threw one more regular season touchdown than Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes (27 regular season touchdowns in 2023). With offensive coordinator Dave Canales now in Carolina as the Panthers new head coach, Mayfield takes a slight step back under new offensive coordinator Liam Coen despite their brief established relationship from their time together with the 2022 Los Angeles Rams.
Mayfield’s 2023 stats: 9-8 regular season record, 1-1 playoff record, 4,044 yards (career high), 28 touchdowns (career high), 10 interceptions, Pro Bowl
July 20th, 2024 at 10:07 am
Everything points to Bowles being mostly “hands off” with his OCs. Where is the evidence that he is forcing them to call too many run plays? Yes,he has said that he wants a good running game to balance with the passing game. What HC doesn’t want that in today’s NFL?
July 20th, 2024 at 12:50 pm
Todd will be more directive and demanding for point production. That’s clear from his interviews and offseason moves. Playing it safe leads to mediocrity. With this roster and offensive weapons, Bucs should be able to eclipse 4500 yards passing and 30 TD passes, with a 4.1ypc rushing average providing buoyancy to the attack.
LFG
July 20th, 2024 at 4:13 pm
@ Dave Pear
Obviously you have a bug up your ass about Kyle Trask. You clearly single out Kyle among all the Bucs players for your vitriol. Why is that Davey boy? You didn’t get into Florida, did you? Bet the house house on it, boys. lol
July 20th, 2024 at 5:37 pm
Wow sort of like “was it Stefanski or Baker”? Well Big Dave and Kevin weren’t there when Baker flew into LA and whooped some Raider butt with 2 days to learn the playbook. Get ready for some fun with Liam. He’s about to show you what an experienced OC can get out of Baker, Chris and Big Mike
July 20th, 2024 at 9:17 pm
Another Trashk worshipper chimes in. Yell at Todd and Jason, they make the decisions. Some of us know why that is , some don’t.
Gator from 76-81. Keep fantasizing about Kyle, thumb rubbers.
July 21st, 2024 at 9:07 am
Mayfield deserves a percentage of Canales’ contract with the Panthers, because Mayfield earned it for him. Canales was in way over his head for most of the season and Mayfield bailed him out.
July 21st, 2024 at 1:49 pm
After watching every game last year, both were the reason for all the good, the bad and the ugly. Neither deserves more credit or blame than the other. 2022 was a wash for Mayfield because it was incomplete, he played on two different teams and simply is not good enough to overcome those hardships. Last year he was due a good statistical year going by his past record even though he only went went 10-9. This is a make or break year for him. He needs to come out firing. Last year he was clutch against Houston even though he had a bad turnover because the defense lost that game.