Digging Deep On Liam Coen As NFL Offensive Coordinator
June 25th, 2024
Using receivers in motion.
Yesterday, Joe brought up concerning facts about Liam Coen and his lone season as an NFL offensive coordinator in Los Angeles.
The results were not good.
But Joe pointed out the silver lining, that the 2022 Rams offense improved when Baker Mayfield took over. And of course, new Bucs offensive coordinator Coen has Mayfield as his starting quarterback.
Warren Sharp had this information in his Warren Sharp 2023 Football Preview (yes, Joe keeps old copies). So Sharp went on a mission to try to find out why the Rams offense tanked under Coen.
(Sharp is quick to point out that quarterback Matt Stafford and receivers Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson each got hurt about the same time later in the 2022 season.)
Coen did not like guys in motion pre-snap, per Sharp’s research. In 2021, when the Rams won the Super Bowl with offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell, now the Vikings coach, the Rams ran a lot more motion pre-snap.
With pre-snap motion: +0.45 EPA/target, 62% success, 10.7 YPA, 65% comp
No pre-snap motion: -0.45 EPA/target, 44% success, 3.7 YPA, 50% comp
Motion made a night and day difference.
But here was the problem: In 2022, the Rams used pre-snap motion on just 33.8% of plays prior to passing the ball vs man coverage.
Sharp then dug deeper and broke down what Stafford did in 2022 with or without motion.
Stafford vs zone WITH pre-snap motion: #8 in EPA/att, #6 in success rate, #4 in YPA
Stafford vs zone WITHOUT motion: #26 in EPA/att, #27 in success rate, #31 in YPAStafford vs man WITH pre-snap motion: #25 in EPA/att, #6 in success rate, #5 in YPA
Stafford vs man WITHOUT motion: #46 in EPA/att, #33 in success rate, #45 in YPAStafford WITH pre-snap motion on all att: #10 in EPA/att, #3 in success rate, #5 in YPA
Stafford WITHOUT motion on all att: #42 in EPA/att, #33 in success rate, #45 in YPA
Now the question remains, how much of this was Rams head coach and playcaller Sean McVay and how much of this was Coen?
Joe is going to look out for this when the toe hits the leather for the 2024 season, as Bucs radio voice Gene Deckerhoff would say on the Buccaneers Radio Network.
And it’s not like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin didn’t have success without motion. Failed former Bucs offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich didn’t like motion and openly mocked data that demonstrated motion helps receivers get open as “fantasy football.”
Right now, Leftwich’s fantasy is finding work in football.
Joe has seen graphics by advanced statheads that show Evans and Godwin to be two of the better receivers in the league in creating separation. Was that because former Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales liked to use motion more?
So will Coen use more motion with Mayfield and the Bucs? Or will he revert to how the Rams shied away from motion in his only year as an NFL coordinator?
June 25th, 2024 at 7:15 am
Why not ask him?
June 25th, 2024 at 7:31 am
“how much of this was Rams head coach and playcaller Sean McVay and how much of this was Coen?”
Not sure of the exact game – but at some point past the 1/2 way mark of the 2022 season – after Stafford and Kupp were hurt – McVay relinquished play calling and allowed Coen to take over that responsibility for the remainder of the season.
Baker showed up a couple games after Coen took over play calling – I think…
June 25th, 2024 at 7:43 am
Thought i read somewhere that Evans and Godwin have said that one of the things they like about new the offense is all the motion ??
June 25th, 2024 at 7:48 am
^^^ Yup. I think R White said there was also a lot motion.
June 25th, 2024 at 8:34 am
Wouldn’t it be a better idea to look at Kentucky’s Offense since he had more control over that Offense than he did over the Rams Offense?
June 25th, 2024 at 8:41 am
I don’t understand why he would not like pre snap motion , it really helps to show what the coverages are , what’s not to like?
June 25th, 2024 at 9:02 am
We are slowly being prepared for when Baker fails and Joe will have an out by blaming it on Coen.
June 25th, 2024 at 9:11 am
Hold up! What were his numbers at Kentucky? Coen only called ONE game in 2022 against the CHIEFS with Bryce Perkins starting at QB! He had no shot and McVay was pouting so much on the sideline that it caused tension throughout the whole team!
June 25th, 2024 at 9:14 am
During Cohen’s season as OC, the Rams had multiple injury problems, including Stafford, Kupp and most of their starting line. That seriously limits what an OC can do. Until Baker arrived with 5 weeks left to play, the Rams were using two training camp QBs to run the offense.
June 25th, 2024 at 9:41 am
I’lll take an OC that can find the mismatches, get guys open, exploit weaknesses… if that means enough motion for an Arena League offense or running the Wing-T, could care less.
June 25th, 2024 at 9:42 am
Interesting article.
Simplifying your offense when you’re using a bunch of backups and that means fewer presnap motions.
It wasn’t just the Qb, Rbs and Wrs
Rams 2022 OL injuries as of Nov 12th.
Offensive line. No OC could’ve done any better.
Logan Bruss: Entire 2022 season (knee)
Brian Allen: 5 games (knee)
Tremayne Anchrum Jr.: Out for season (fibula)
David Edwards: 5 games (concussion)
Coleman Shelton: 4 games (ankle)
Joe Noteboom: Out for season (Achilles)
Alaric Jackson: Out for season (blood clots)
Chandler Brewer: 4-6 weeks (knee)
June 25th, 2024 at 9:52 am
Pro spread, it’ll be interesting to see the rate Coen asks Mayfield to drop from under center versus how often he comes out in the gun.
Hearing players talk about how complex the playbook lines up with that, the point of all the pre-snap motion is to get the defense to tip their hands pre-snap and gives the QBat least 2 keys.
Baker better be studying and choosing this year is the year to be the best at his craft he can be, don’t wanna hear how bad Coen is if we coming out looking like we did last season becuase then we’ll know who the common denominator is.
June 25th, 2024 at 10:11 am
I’d really like to see a pass play as the first play of the 2024 season. Even a screen pass might give me goose’s
June 25th, 2024 at 10:15 am
When Coen was introduced in his initial press conference, he mentioned the offense will in fact use motions and shifts. So was he lying?
June 25th, 2024 at 10:28 am
Another set of confusing and contradictory stats regarding Coen and the Rams.
I felt pretty optimistic originally, but the more I learn, the more concerned I am that he’s going to me a downgrade from Canales. Maybe the NFL media is right?
June 25th, 2024 at 10:35 am
In the final 5 Rams games 29% (5/17) Mayfield was responsible for 21% of the totals Passing Yards (758/3506) and 3 of the 4 worse passing Performances of the season. Perhaps the ‘Rams Played Better was giving him enormous credit for the two wins against teams that had lost twice as many games as they had won in 2022. Raiders and the Broncos.
That is about as impressive as two playoff wins against a team that Self Destructed (Pitts) and a team that imploded and went 1-5 to end the season (PHI).
June 25th, 2024 at 10:47 am
@Unbelivable
Canales got his first NFL job in 2010.
Coen got his first NFL job in 2018.
This notion that Coen is automatically better than Canales is fan theory.
June 25th, 2024 at 10:47 am
@Dude watch the condensed Kentucky games. Lots of short passes, HB draws and outside runs from the shot gun formation. They had plenty of motion, they ran a lot on first down (60% would be my guess), many intermediate throws down field, slants, outside screens/ receiver sweeps and when they got inside the opponent 40 they went to play action a lot.
June 25th, 2024 at 10:58 am
@A Bucs fan
Spot on, I feel like the horizontal part of the UK passing attack was to stretch the defense out and use it as an extension of the run game, which some could credit to McVay, but Ryan Day of Ohio St is a coach Coen coached under who focuses those same principles. I’m for the intermediate pass game being used in place of sending RBs off tackle or on outside runs, but with the addition of Bucky and hopefully a bolstered IOL I think we can do both tbh.
June 25th, 2024 at 11:19 am
@dude and @bucs fan – those are all good points.
It all comes down to whether we can scheme more misdirection and be less predictable. That’s how modern offenses succeed.
Rarely can you just line up and somewhat telegraph what you’re going to do, and then still execute. The 2020 and 2021 Bucs offenses were able to do that simply because we had an insane level of talent on the field. Nearly every starter was either an all-pro or pro bowler, many of whom will be in the HOF one day. (Think about it- Brady, Gronk, Evans, Godwin, AB, Marpet, Wirfs, even D Smith having one his best seasons, et ). We saw what happened in 2022 when they tried to run the same offense without the same horses…
Misdirection and unpredictability are key!
June 25th, 2024 at 11:21 am
Sure, when he’s next available sometime maybe by the final week of July.
June 25th, 2024 at 11:23 am
No. Three things:
1. good luck finding or obtaining that information. Colleges don’t offer that stuff up regularly like the NFL does. College is still infested with the coaches mentality that a screen play needs more security clearance than the Manhattan Project.
2. NFL and college are far different. So Joe doesn’t think it’s a far or accurate apples-to-apples comparison.
3. Coen had much different personnel at Kentucky. His best player there was a running back. That’s not the case with the Bucs (or the Rams).
June 25th, 2024 at 11:24 am
“It all comes down to whether we can scheme more misdirection and be less predictable. That’s how modern offenses succeed.”
Agreed, but the simpliest part is having the talent rep it until it becomes second nature.
Situation < Playcall < Execution = Outcome in that order.
Play calls don't fail because they were called. They fail because the players aren't in lockstep on a given rep, play design, or situation.
Like our redzone efficiency and how that's fallen off a cliff since 2021, sure you can have the most exotic play design imaginable, but if your guard & center don't know how to slide protection with a blitzer in the a gap then you're just going to fail gorgeously.
June 25th, 2024 at 11:30 am
Can’t speak to the line but Stafford, Kupp and Allen Robinson played at least nine games together. In other words, a half-season.
So Joe thinks that’s a decent sample size. It’s not like all these guys got hurt in September.
June 25th, 2024 at 11:32 am
We can all hypothesize, we won’t know until the 1st week of the regular season.
June 25th, 2024 at 11:32 am
“1. good luck finding or obtaining that information. Colleges don’t offer that stuff up regularly like the NFL does. College is still infested with the coaches mentality that a screen play needs more security clearance than the Manhattan Project.”
There’s a youtube economy dedicated to college football schematics and Coens’ got several videos breaking down tape of his own offense. Coen even broke down film of Will
“2. NFL and college are far different. So Joe doesn’t think it’s near an apples-to-apples comparison. for his pre-draft process a little over a year ago.”
There’s more overlap in this era of college and pro football now than there ever was before. RPOs literally got popular the last decade. Andy Reid won SBs in KC after hiring a college coaching legend when he initially got hired by the Chiefs to help Reid evolve his offensive style, that coach was the same coach who is credited for innovating the pistol offense in the early 2010s.
June 25th, 2024 at 11:49 am
I think comparing what Coen did under McVay to what he’s going to do with the Bucs is like comparing apples, to oranges too Joe. This is Coen’s from start to finish, these are the Bucs, not the Rams, we’ll see how it looks soon enough.
June 25th, 2024 at 11:51 am
@Joe Stafford you’re forgetting/missing that Stafford missed the entire offseason and was limited in training camp with an elbow injury that would have shelved most quarterbacks.
His former left tackle Whitworth is on record saying that was why his play was down in 22. He further stated thet he wished Matt was on that show “Quaterback” so people could see how hard it was for him dealing with his elbow injury during the 2022 season.
June 25th, 2024 at 12:16 pm
Is that even remotely objective?
This is true, but don’t believe college offenses have fully taken over NFL offenses.
The spread is more common in the NFL than it has ever been, you are correct. Not yet dominant like in college.
Joe compares the difference(s) to when colleges mostly ran veeres and wishbones back in the 1970s. Only very rarely did you see NFL offenses do that (Bud Wilkinson tried that with St. Louis. Keyword: Tried. LOL)
So college is still much different than the NFL, and vice-versa.
That’s one reason why it’s hard for teams project how o-linemen might play in the NFL. Not rare for some o-linemen to be drafted who have never put their hand in the dirt.
June 25th, 2024 at 12:23 pm
^^^
It’s instructional to the right ears, eyes and mind who know what they’re watching. It’s not Coen lauding himself, it’s film digestion.
June 25th, 2024 at 12:30 pm
As others said, Stafford was hurt.
Anyone who played fantasy football that year just did not want to touch him because of his bad elbow. There was always talk about him not making it through the season from August on.
Not saying you have to follow fantasy football to have knowledge, but if you did, you would know that Stafford was predicted to be a big bust that season.
So, the prognosticators and folks turned out to be right. That had nothing to do with Coen.
I am not sure why Allen Robinson is even mentioned. He was not a good receiver that year, or the year before, or the year after. Anyone thinking that he was still a viable number 2 receiver, probably thinks that Michael Clayton was a viable number 2 receiver after his rookie season.
June 25th, 2024 at 12:45 pm
Joe didn’t.
June 25th, 2024 at 1:03 pm
Joes, you’re really starting to give me ulcers about this Coen dude. Almost like we’re getting Bymron Junior. Yikes.
#AsToddEvolves
June 25th, 2024 at 1:13 pm
i doubt there is a direct geometric advantage at this level that is going to dazzle us all like we think should happen.
i think that limiting what the opponent can do in response will get the most yield. to the extent we can force opponents to make changes and then respond to that will be where we find gold, within the limitations of tendency of course.
that is not going to be a measurable
June 25th, 2024 at 1:20 pm
@Dude – 100% agree about players being on the same page leading to execution.
But if the defense knows what you’re about to run, you’re making it way harder on yourselves regardless (unless you have 8-10 pro bowl / all pro / HOF starters out there). Gotta keep the defense off balance.
June 25th, 2024 at 1:50 pm
The NFL loves Fantasy Football because it puts eyeballs on games you would otherwise skip. Learning about players you would normally not care about is a side benefit.
I don’t need ESPN to tell me how good a player is when they either did well in Fantasy or they sucked.
Doesn’t do the same thing for defensive players but still there are eyes on more games.
June 25th, 2024 at 2:01 pm
@unbelievable – I agree with Dudes point. The emphasis on repetition and execution reminds me of Coach Leach. Today offenses also have to use formations to attack the defense’s structure and then adjust from there. The best way to keep a defense off balance is running the exact same or very similar plays out of multiple formations to keep them off balance. It’s the illusion of complexity.
June 25th, 2024 at 2:17 pm
^ Whether it’s an illusion or not, you have to keep them off balance.
BTW, “running the exact same or very similar plays out of multiple formations” is exactly what Canales said he wanted to do last offseason. That’s totally fine with me so long as the defense is kept guessing. Different ways to slice a cat…
June 25th, 2024 at 2:34 pm
Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) on DraftKings forces you to know about EVERY Offensive Player in the league. You know EVERY players weekly injury report and injury history. You have to know EVERY teams WR5’s, WR6’s (and etc.), in constant lookout for ‘value’ plays on who’s projected to play, & their projected targets/touches/usage/etc. It’s really cool for that! Like, I know EVERY “two-way”/G-Leaguer currently in the NBA right now (since COVID), & I haven’t even watched an entire complete full-game in YEARS LoL. It’s insane tho (and just soooo damn HARD), because you can keep an eye on the injury report leading up ‘til five-minutes before tipoff and ‘think’ you’re good, then pull it back up and Embiid or whomever, just decided not to play that night at the very last second, for whatever reason… And, of course, you have him in like 8 of your 25-lineups!? Orrrr, you notice 9-minutes before tipoff, that the “Greek Freak” didn’t come back outta the locker room after warmups & you’ve got HIM in 11 of your 20-lineups… So, then you’re scrambling around trying to re-scramble 11-LINEUPS before 9:30 (at 9:24), & you have NONE of the 7-8:00 early game players available to use… So, you’re totally SCREWED. You have to do SO MUCH research and have other players and lineups available (in your mind) that you can immediately pivot to! You have to know all the usage projections, Etc. It’s soooo frustrating & HARD. It’s why I finally, just quit on NBA midway thru last season. Just too much work. And, I knew way more about the NBA than what I ever wanted to know LoL. The NFL is soooo much fun!!!! So is the PGA… Especially, all the big tournaments. I’ve done VERY well on it for the past two seasons. DFS is really, kind of like a video game. I LOVE IT.
June 25th, 2024 at 2:41 pm
@unbelivable & @A Bucs Fan
Agree with both that illusion is a part of playcalling, but the caveat is being able to run a look with consistency and being able to add wrinkles/adjustments that’ll give a defense less to key off in comparison to what they watched gameplanning leading up to a game.
The adage of “you still have to stop it” still holds up in the game of football and as much times as defenses dedicate to reading keys to give them clues to what an offense is doing. The offense has to work just as hard if not hard to make the same thing look different while still beign successful. Though, in our case last season new OC & QB combo, there’s not that same report as a QB+OC that have been together 3-4 seasons.
June 25th, 2024 at 2:50 pm
Canales was learning the ropes. Andy Reid, Shannahan, McVay, and Ben Johnson are seasoned coaches who have been successful employing that philosophy among many other seasoned college coache, and some high school too.
Take Coach Leach in the air raider days. He was considered a genius for years and his offenses ran maybe 5-8 plays a game. Same goes for the first four coaches I referenced earlier. It’s all about consistency in execution of the same play out of different formations. It’s the best way to confuse the defense then and now.
June 25th, 2024 at 3:07 pm
“Take Coach Leach in the air raider days. He was considered a genius for years and his offenses ran maybe 5-8 plays a game.”
Man I thought Graham Harrell was going to be the guy watching him at Texas Tech back in the day, he’s a coach at Purdue now last I heard and running his take on the air raid like Josh Huepel is at Tennesse.
June 25th, 2024 at 3:55 pm
You don’t need motion to run it up the middle on every play.
June 25th, 2024 at 4:11 pm
Touche!
June 25th, 2024 at 4:33 pm
lol Rod
June 25th, 2024 at 7:03 pm
Please don’t be a Coenhead, Liam.
#AsToddEvolves
#AsRichardPontificates