SI.com: Baker Mayfield Will Again Pass For 4,000 Yards
June 25th, 2024
Another career year?
We are in the throes of List Season. With NFL players and personnel scattered on vacation across the globe and One Buc Palace set to close soon for the annual summer siesta week, the hungry beasts that are NFL fans must still be fed.
Hence, lists for everything related to the NFL one can imagine. The notorious Conor Orr of SI.com is no different.
Remember last year when Orr predicted the Bucs would win but two games? Jason Licht kept a receipt and a few weeks after the Bucs lost to the Lions in the division round of the playoffs, Licht hunted down Orr at the combine in Indianapolis and reminded him (good-naturedly) about his dire forecast.
Maybe Orr is is a tad more sympathetic to the Bucs because of Licht? In posting a list of 100 things Orr sees happening in the NFL in 2024, Orr believe Baker Mayfield may just flirt with another career year passing the ball.
40. Baker Mayfield will top 4,000 yards for a second consecutive season
While I have always counted myself as pro-Mayfield in terms of liking him and believing in him as a long-term answer, I recognize that picking the Tampa Bay Buccaneers not to win very many games last season could be interpreted as an anti-Mayfield take. While my final verdict on the Bucs’ 2024 record is still a few weeks away, I would like to plant my Mayfield flag despite the coordinator change in Tampa.
Losing former Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales to the Stinking Panthers may not be fatal for the Bucs. When Mayfield last worked for new Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen in Los Angeles, the Rams offense actually improved.
Joe will have a story later on another element of the 2023 Bucs offense that is just about unimaginable it is so bad.
Look, Joe’s not saying Canales wasn’t good for Tampa Bay. You can’t tell Joe that Mike Evans balling out at 30, Rachaad White exploding in the passing game and Mayfield resurrecting his career in the same season were all coincidences.
But man, some areas of the offfense were worse with Canales than with bumbling Byron Leftwich. And that’s really sad.
June 25th, 2024 at 10:07 am
Leftwhich had Tom Brady for a few years, Canales had Baker Mayfield for his first year being an OCand still managed to get a promotion elsewhere. See how that works? Leftwich didn’t do enough with the one of the best to do it in 2022. Canales overachieved with a QB alot of people around the league consider(-ed) a back caliber QB and still managed to +1 the win total from a year prior.
We need better this season tho, eliminate those games Mayfield threw for less that 200-250 yards.
Or the 5 games we went 1-4 where he threw 1 TD & 1 Int.
Plenty of improving to do.
June 25th, 2024 at 10:21 am
“Joe’s not saying Canales wasn’t good for the Bucs.”
I’m an extremely optimistic Bucs fan for this site. I’m also realistic. If you don’t want to say it, I will. Canales was horrible.
>32nd ranked rush. Literally the worst.
>20th ranked offense. 16th would be average.
>9 points against CAR in a must win game.
And 4000 yards isn’t a significant accomplishment anymore. 12 QBs exceeded 4K. 4 QBs were within 150 yards. That’s 50% of the league. Yawn.
June 25th, 2024 at 10:22 am
I am sure Brady isn’t helping Leftwich case at all either. He is likely telling the powers that be that you want nothing to do with him.
June 25th, 2024 at 10:45 am
235 yards per game. Doable
June 25th, 2024 at 10:58 am
Career yr of M.E. incoming!
June 25th, 2024 at 11:09 am
He had a career year, and now most are predicting a setback. Hard to find many thinking he’ll be able to match last year. I can’t find a single “expert” who thinks he will play better in 2024. While I’m no expert, you can put me down as one who thinks he’ll play better in 2024.
June 25th, 2024 at 11:12 am
I sure like it when people talk crap about Judas Canals.
June 25th, 2024 at 11:15 am
SB Says:
Career yr of M.E. incoming!
^^^^^^
TRUTH! Rice, Moss, TO, Fitz all posted career years at M1k3’s age.
June 25th, 2024 at 11:27 am
4,000 yards is not hard to get in today’s NFL. I don’t care if he throws for 10,000 or 2,000 yards as long as we win.
June 25th, 2024 at 11:27 am
I want to see 5000 yards. Let’s go Baker!
June 25th, 2024 at 11:28 am
So deja vu all over again, eh? Does that mean we’ll need three field goals in game 17 to win 9-0 and go over .500 by one game?
June 25th, 2024 at 11:30 am
Really, the one huge improvement the offense needs to make is their red zone offense. Fix that and the Bucs will have a great season.
June 25th, 2024 at 12:25 pm
I expect the running game to show some improvement, but it probably won’t subtract from the passing game. There’s no reason Mayfield won’t repeat 4000+ yards.
June 25th, 2024 at 12:25 pm
It can only go up.
June 25th, 2024 at 12:33 pm
3812 in 2023 in 17 game regular season with all of his weapons not missing any significant time from injuries. 17th in the league with 225 passing yards per game. Joe’s Door Mat Ridder averaged only 18 yards fewer per game. Had Canales been with the Falcons they probably win the Division.
Chargers, Vikings, and Bengals had better passing with back Ups like Stick, Mullens, and Browning playing have the season for those teams.
June 25th, 2024 at 12:49 pm
Dave was a great QB coach. I think he was good for team moral… but his inexperience as a play caller was pretty obvious. He had his moments but not scoring a TD on an opening drive all season pretty much says it all.
Very interested to see how the panthers do.
June 25th, 2024 at 12:52 pm
If the run game is improved, why not? He has weapons.
The question is what is Coen going to do with those weapons?
June 25th, 2024 at 1:06 pm
Baker will have 4,500 yds & 40TD this season!
Bank on it!
June 25th, 2024 at 1:16 pm
After reading Joe’s data on this Coen, it’s worrisome that he in fact might just be a Coenhead. No presnap motion? Anemic results.
Bucs need to score >25ppg to win 10 games, and Todd has never been head coach of a football team that accomplished 25ppg. His best was 24ppg with the Jets, in one of only two of his winning seasons out of 6.
I’m getting depressed. Thought Coen was a step forward. Now it seems he might make us wish for Leftwurst.
#AsRichardDevolves
June 25th, 2024 at 1:17 pm
No Jensen. No Marpet. No Cappa.
No offense.
Losing Jensen and Marpet changed everything.
They were both top 3 at their positions.
June 25th, 2024 at 1:45 pm
1900 rushing yards as a team. That’s what I need to see. I don’t care if Baker has 3500 yards passing, so long as we have 1900+ yards on the ground.
June 25th, 2024 at 1:51 pm
4000 yards divided by 17 total games is an average of… Click tick clicky… 235 passing yards a game. Hmmm, well, I mean, yeah. Doesn’t seem to far fetched, or shouldnt be. Hell, I’d be happy with 100 yards every half and a tricked out run game.
June 25th, 2024 at 1:54 pm
Since Gronk left our Red Zone has been insufficient!! Just like Scotty Mack said…unstoppable offense if we can convert in the Red Zone, no Doubt. Go Bucs.
June 25th, 2024 at 1:58 pm
Good for Orr with his bold predictions. Some were fun! Baker will far surpass 4000 yards this season. It does seem as though Orr has made an apology of some sort. However, he also predicted, “The Falcons will be leading the NFC South at Thanksgiving.” And of course mentions Cousins. Ugh!
June 25th, 2024 at 2:00 pm
Since BA retired our red zone offense has been insufficient.
June 25th, 2024 at 2:28 pm
🔥 t b
June 25th, 2024 at 2:35 pm
Its all about the OLine frankly….
Here’s the recent chronology:
Bucs had a top 5 Oline in 2020 and won the Super Bowl – 30+ ppg
Same kickass Oline the next year – 14 wins… 30+ ppg
2022 – Lose Marpet, Jensen and Cappa all at once, Smith’s play takes a nosedive and the Goat was left with shambles of an OLine in his last season… 18.4 ppg – 8 wins WITH Tom Brady and many good players still on the roster…
2023 – Wirfs moves to LT – Goedeke moves to RT and suddenly our Tackles are a strength again – but the entire interior is gawdawful with talented but inconsistent rookie Mauch as the only positive interior addition. Baker has a ‘career’ year – but had no running game to work with and was pressured up the middle far too frequently. Mayfield literally Houdinied his way out of at least a dozen sacks on the year – and usually for positive gain… But the net result offensively (WITH ME13, CG14, White and Mayfield all playing well) was only 20.5 ppg…. 9 wins and then an exciting playoff win followed by a tough loss in divisional round.
2024 – Mauch adds weight and the Buccaneers draft the best interior OLine prospect the class offers to take over the Center position. LG is still a ??? – as the only ‘answer’ provided there was to sign 2 cheap FAs to one year deals and let them (and a 6th rd draft pick) fight it out for the right to start. Both ‘vets’ have started games in the NFL – but both are also confirmed back-up level talents – as indicated by their cheap signing prices and non inspiring tape.
I harped all off season that legitly ‘fixing’ the Oline was the only way to vastly improve the running game and score more points. That it needed to be the #1 priority of the offseason….
Did Jason Licht do enough in this regard? We shall see…..
I was pounding the table for drafting a Guard with one of our 3rd round picks this year – but in retrospect and from all appearances – both of our 3rd rd selections (Smith and McMillan) appear to have been steals and will help this team right away at other positions…..
a 4 ppg increase would get the Bucs to 24.5 ppg – and likely result in 11 or 12 wins paired with a top 10 defense. That’s converting an average of 1 extra TD per game instead of settling for a FG. 10 of those 17 ‘extra’ TDs should come from the RBs who only scored 8 TDs on the ground all last season…. because… you know….. Reread the 1st line above if you don’t…..
June 25th, 2024 at 2:52 pm
There hasn’t been enough stability around Baker to divine what a career year might be, imo. Four thousand yards, 35 TDs doesn’t seem out of reach if the line is better. I doubt he’s worked with guys like Evans and Godwin for two straight years. Injuries could derail him, however.
June 25th, 2024 at 3:12 pm
If the O-line can gel esp up the middle, and Coen does his job, Baker will undoubtedly have a career season. Easily over 4000 yards and probably 40+ TD’s.
I don’t know why that’d even be a question.
Baker and the Bucs are a marriage made in heaven…. Makes me so friggin happy that the sports talking heads like to dis on the Bucs. Gives the whole team a chip and a we’ll show you attitude that mirrors the chip Bakers been carrying his whole career.
Bakers the least of my worries.
June 25th, 2024 at 3:53 pm
I would hope he can get it done in 17-games, that’s pretty much entry level QB-ing in 2024.
June 25th, 2024 at 4:08 pm
“Easily over 4000 yards and probably 40+ TD’s.”
-sigh- Easily? How about throwing 30 TDs in a season for the first time in his career? I’m all for high hopes, but you’ve got to ring that 30 burger bell first.
June 25th, 2024 at 4:30 pm
As others have rightfully pointed out it’s going to be about our new oline…if it’s markedly improved so will the offense and more points will follow. Can’t wait for the pads to come on…watch out for the 6th round kid he’s as wide as a house
June 25th, 2024 at 5:07 pm
Conservative game plans and play calling result in fewer points scored. Not only for the Bucs but for our opponents. It slows the entire game down to the point of at least one less possession
June 25th, 2024 at 5:36 pm
Dave Pear … ‘I’m getting depressed. Thought Coen was a step forward. Now it seems he might make us wish for Leftwurst.’
Love your optimism Dave. Take another Xanax and hang in there. Bucs will win 10 games even without your blessings.
#AsDaveConvolves
June 25th, 2024 at 5:52 pm
Pickgrin … ‘a 4 ppg increase would get the Bucs to 24.5 ppg – and likely result in 11 or 12 wins paired with a top 10 defense.’
Great analysis & spot on. I’m expecting 10 wins, but 11 or 12 would be real sweet. Contrary to some JBFers, I’ve got a lot of faith in this coaching staff to draft mid-round & lower-round talent and get them to produce respectable results at the NFL level. Everything has to ‘fit together’ IMO, and I’m very impressed with how our GM & HC & coaching staff have been able to build a decent team despite some crippling salary CAP limitations. I anticipate that they’ll improve even more this year.
One of the joys of recent years was being able to go to the Bear Bryant Museum on the Bama campus & spend a couple hours finding out more about his life, and especially his coaching career. Bear apparently appreciated the ‘top talent’, but he apparently felt that great coaches were the ones who would get the mid-tier & lower-tier guys on the team to not only produce but to excel. From what I could determine, Nick Saban followed pretty much the same philosophy, and the results showed.
Todd Bowles actually reminds me a lot of both of them. Not so much in W-L results obviously, but more-so in how he’s been able to get the mid-tier & lower-ties guys to perform, and some to excel. I’d hate to get back on the coaching-carousel that we were on for years with Morris-Schiano-Smith-Koetter because their results were dreadful.
June 25th, 2024 at 6:37 pm
Getting 4,000 yards today is like 3,000 years in 1979. If Mayfield stays healthy and starts every game, it would be a shock if he didn’t pass for over 4,000 yards.
June 25th, 2024 at 6:57 pm
Pickgrin – excellent take. Nailed it, and 24.5 pig would be a huge improvement, that would tie the best ever scoring performance by a Todd coached team (2015 Jets, not coincidentally, 10 wins). I rounded up to 25, the point is the same.
June 25th, 2024 at 9:07 pm
Baker getting 4000 yds last year was a big deal considering he basically had to do it on 3rd downs all season since 1st&2nd downs went to the bland run game for most of season once that jackass canales let baker do his thing the game changed so DCone is a total jackass
June 25th, 2024 at 9:39 pm
It’s pretty bad when everyone is stomping Canales in the ground. It was his first year even calling plays, the offensive line couldn’t open up a hole that a mouse could crawl through, and the Bucs took a mainly passing team to the game before the NFC championship. It’s always easy to be sitting at the house and bitch about everything but good god they weren’t even supposed to win to many games and when they did it was still not good enough. You want the lost decade back or something? Last year was pretty good with an OC that wasn’t an OC. Looks like a lot of people are already taking a dump on Coen and ain’t even ran a F-ing play. You People Suck… Let’s Go Bucs, your own people are against you every step of the way.
June 25th, 2024 at 10:30 pm
Break out year for Baker is right around the corner!!!
June 25th, 2024 at 10:39 pm
well last year before the 2023 preseason big jim predicted a baker year of 4000 yards, 30 tds and w/ 10 int’s. and while big jim is rarely never wrong, big jim predicts even a bigger season for baker in 2024. big jim says 4500 plus/32 plus/and 10 or less. big jim has spoken, now let it be written. besides, baker is the best faker, he can do anything. go bucs!, sincerely big jim.
June 26th, 2024 at 7:05 pm
big jim – I’m not Baker fan, but I hope you’re right, since it would mean Baker is playing better and just as importantly the fears I have for this offense, that Bowles is going to firmly plant his label on it and make it a run first most boring offense in football, is unfounded.
June 27th, 2024 at 7:58 am
Football is a game that demands the ability to constantly adjust in order to be successful.Looking at Mayfield’s history of inconsistent play, It brings into question his ability to do so. Mayfield seems to do well one year , opposing defenses adjust, Mayfield doesn’t , and regresses the next. You can bet opposing defenses , especially within the Division, have taken a long hard look at the Bucs weapons on offense during the off season and have made adjustments to counter them. Maybe a new OC every year is the answer , maybe not, but every Tampa fan knows the seemingly required two runs up the middle and a pass in the flats won’t cut it , It remains to be seen if the Bucs and Mayfield are up to the adjustment challenge .