Tough Way To Start The Season
May 17th, 2024
Path visible in the “Race to 10.”
If the Bucs take care of business against teams they should beat, then the following should not be an issue.
Joe remembers the Sage of Tampa Bay sports, JoeBucsFan.com columnist Ira Kaufman, noted that NFL history suggests the Bucs won’t pull off a four-peat NFC South division title run this season with eight or nine wins. The Bucs will have to have at least 10 to wrap up the division. Perhaps more.
Joe looks at the schedule and doesn’t think five wins before the bye in Week 11 is an insurmountable feat. And Joe also looks at the schedule and sees five wins after the bye quite possible if not likely.
Still, Kevin Patra of NFL.com thinks the Bucs have a rough go of it in the first 10 games.
Five 2023 playoff opponents in the first 10 weeks. Tampa’s early slate is nothing to sneeze at. In addition to K.C. and San Francisco, the Bucs face three other playoff teams within the first 10 games of the season. They head to Detroit in Week 2, have a rubber match with the Eagles in Week 4 after splitting the series last year, and take on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in Week 7 on Monday night. Toss in three division bouts, and that portion of the schedule isn’t easy for a Bucs squad looking to win its fourth consecutive division title.
If the Bucs can win two games against those five they will be ahead of the game. Again, take care of business against the teams the Bucs should beat and the Tampa Bay will be fine.
And here’s something to think about: The Bucs could be facing rookie quarterbacks four times in the first eight games (Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix and Michael Penix twice).
May 17th, 2024 at 4:57 am
Working against the Bucs is the patsy schedule the league gave the Falcons.
May 17th, 2024 at 5:48 am
Optimistically, we aren’t facing new rookie QB Caleb Williams. No one is really talking about him. He could be a game-changer. The Bears could surprise many of these other teams they are going to play against. Everyone ignored us last season, and there we were winning!
May 17th, 2024 at 6:09 am
Unfortunately, Bowles does not have a good history against rookie and back up QBs.
May 17th, 2024 at 6:40 am
5-5 before the bye
5-2 after the bye
i think we get hot coming out of the bye…
but who know this early…so many factors come into play as a season moves along…
but i’m guessing 10-7 for the divisional win…….over atlanta, who finishes at 9-8 or 8-9…
let’s go knicks !!…………..tonight !!
May 17th, 2024 at 7:04 am
Agree with all of Joe’s observation save one.
Unless he’s speculating that Kirk Cousins body is going to break down and take him out IMHO there is no way Penix gets on the field even if he’s the real deal.
While the Trask whiners moan that he never had a chance because TL and TB had “pre-anointed” Baker as the starter despite their beliefs that Trask really earned it…perhaps? Not that likely since the Bucs got Baker on the real CHEAP. Maxed out at 8 million and a lot less if he didn’t start and hit the bonuses. Not only did the Bucs have little $$$ on the line in that decision, they had no draft capital invested in him, unlike what now looks like a waste of a second round draft pick. IF Baker goes down and Trask comes in and saves the day (which I would hope if Mayfield gets hurt) then JL will be able to reclaim some lost reputation with that second round decision, 64th player overall.
Falcons OTOH have EVERYTHING invested in Cousins. A 4 year deal valued at 180 MILLION!!! The Bucs had 4-8 million!!
Draft capital wise Penix DOES represent a HUGE investment!!! 1st rounder, 8th overall, he HAS to eventually make it or the Falcons really screwed the pooch.
But it’s customary to let a seasoned vet “groom” (can I use that word lol) a new young QB. Green Bay has done twice now.
I suspect in an ideal Falcon’s world…Cousins lead the Falcons to success this year and perhaps next before buying out his contract and handing the keys to Penix.
May 17th, 2024 at 7:10 am
heyjude Says: “Everyone ignored us last season, and there we were winning!”
8-8 after 16 games and needing 3 filed goals from our kicker to win game 17 by a score of 9-0 and squeak into the playoffs is not what I would trumpet as “winning!” Methinks too many on this site forget how bad 50% of last season really was.
May 17th, 2024 at 7:16 am
Hey Jude… The Bears are throwing WillIams under the Bus. Think of all the good QB,s in the last 6 years. Brady, Mahomes, old Jets guy, Jordan Love, Purdy..They all sat for at least a year…
May 17th, 2024 at 7:37 am
Marky Mark – You are onto something. Good point. We will have to see how he does coming right into the NFL field. On the other hand, I think our Baker did well in 2018. Cam Newton, CJ Stroud, and some others. It is a toss-up at times.
May 17th, 2024 at 7:56 am
Don’t put it passed the Commanders to start Jacoby Brissett at the beginning of the season. New ownership might want to take it slow with the QB of their Future. Last time J.B faced the Bucs he played well and hung an L on them on the shores of Lake Erie.
Having to deal with the NFC East and AFC North they are far from contending this season anyway.
May 17th, 2024 at 8:09 am
Bucs need to win at least half their games against last season play off teams and beat the teams they should beat. Hard to judge this since every team lost players and added players and many changed coaches and systems and everything. Hard to tell which teams have dropped and which teams are on the rise until about Oct. Even then teams can get better that started badly getting more comfortable in new systems and such. If the Bucs actually have a winning record against these so called “better” teams, then we may be on to something and surprise everybody. If, like most of last season, we get beat by most of the prior season’s playoff teams, it will be hard to win the division and very difficult to make the playoffs. We’d have to do a repeat of 2020 and run the table after the bye week which I really don’t want to count on having to do. Let the games begin…
May 17th, 2024 at 8:14 am
I wouldn’t be so sure about beating rookie QBs. Our record there is not all that impressive.
May 17th, 2024 at 8:29 am
Joe can’t say that. As another commenter said, Cousins is a wild card. If Penix is ripping apart secondaries in camp and preseason and Cousins isn’t, who knows?
May 17th, 2024 at 8:35 am
Want to wager that Penix starts twice?…..I don’t think so.
May 17th, 2024 at 8:49 am
Doc, the first season after Brady the Bucs did better than expected. Sports media had stopped talking about us. Baker was the right choice to come in after Brady. Yes, it wasn’t all perfect, but we were there at the end.
May 17th, 2024 at 9:01 am
No worries. Iron sharpens iron.
May 17th, 2024 at 9:07 am
I have the Bucs starting 5-1 and then losing 4 in a row to be 5-5. Do the Bucs have the leadership and resilience to get to my prediction of 10-7 and 4-2 in the division? To me, that’s the season, can they bounce back from that very tough schedule book ended by the Ravens and 49ers. Fortunately, we have the bye right after those tough games. Can the Bucs recollect themselves during the bye and get back on a winning run?
May 17th, 2024 at 9:07 am
All these teams are so mediocre. The banter is fun, but a play here and there and any of them can go 13-4 or 4-13. The only lock losses are the 49ers and Chiefs. But the schedule does favor Atlanta… much easier road than a first place schedule.
May 17th, 2024 at 9:12 am
The NFC South will have 3 new OC’s, so the Bucs playing early games with the Falcons, Panters should be Advantage Bucs. Mayfield has experience under Bucs OC, so the transition should be less daunting.
May 17th, 2024 at 9:28 am
There’s always that one team that out of nowhere lays a haymaker on the league and leaves everyone stunned asking where tf did that come from. That’s going to be our Bucs. Maybe a rocky start but once the rookies get roughed up and acclimate, it’s on. We have veterans in all the right places to keep the ship off the rocks. 11 wins if Todd doesn’t blunder the game management.
May 17th, 2024 at 9:39 am
The way Todd masturminds against rookie QBs, there’s probably a cumulative 2000 yards passing given up in those four games.
Bucs better ring up 30ppg at least, and maybe they win a few. Watching CJ Stroud remove Todd’s vital organs like a surgeon was an omen.
May 17th, 2024 at 9:45 am
8-8 after 16 games and needing 3 filed goals from our kicker to win game 17 by a score of 9-0 and squeak into the playoffs is not what I would trumpet as “winning!” Methinks too many on this site forget how bad 50% of last season really was.
You’d bitch if they hung you with a new rope. Doesn’t make a difference if we won 1-0 it’s a win. Get over yourself and your contempt of Mayfield….go Bucs!!!!
May 17th, 2024 at 10:13 am
8-8 after 16 games and needing 3 filed goals from our kicker to win game 17 by a score of 9-0 and squeak into the playoffs is not what I would trumpet as “winning!” Methinks too many on this site forget how bad 50% of last season really was.
Are you complaining about how we won or just complaining because we won ?
May 17th, 2024 at 12:14 pm
Let us hope that the Falcons overreached with Kirk Cousins and that he doesn’t measure up to take the constant beating in the games. Meanwhile we have a tough, stud of a QB. Hopefully he can carry Tampa to another divisional title, Todd Bowles notwithstanding. Go Bucs.
May 17th, 2024 at 3:00 pm
Me: “8-8 after 16 games and needing 3 filed goals from our kicker to win game 17 by a score of 9-0 and squeak into the playoffs is not what I would trumpet as ‘winning!’ Methinks too many on this site forget how bad 50% of last season really was.”
Bucben61: “Are you complaining about how we won or just complaining because we won?”
Learn to read. Last season was not my definition of “winning!” Glad to know .500 ball and an NFC South Champions t-shirt is your definition of “winning!” L O S E R.
May 17th, 2024 at 3:59 pm
Tough way to start the season in what way with Bowles as the coach still?🙄 The best they’ll probably be is probably like 9-8 again. LETS GO PANTHERS! Get the Bruins outta here. That city is so spoiled with sports that it’s ridiculous & I think most would agree that after awhile it just gets old watching the same “CRAP” over & over again for the last 25 YEARS! It’s like:
WHO’S GONNA WIN OR BE IN THE SUPER BOWL:
THE PATRIOTS
WHO’S GONNA WIN OR BE IN THE WORLD SERIES:
THE RED SOX
WHO’S GONNA WIN OR BE IN THE STANLEY CUP FINALS:
THE BRUINS
WHO’S GONNA WIN OR BE IN THE NBA FINALS:
THE CELTICS
They seem to think it’s all an entitlement now & as if they’re gonna win it all the time now because they’re always used to it.
May 17th, 2024 at 4:12 pm
Doc you are looking for the saints suck.com you are at the wrong site…good bye…loser
May 17th, 2024 at 11:06 pm
So 9&8 is not winning? So does that mean the packers & the other 5 teams at 9&8 are also losers learn to read LOSER!
May 18th, 2024 at 7:20 am
What I do not get about the Penix pick is that say you do move on from Cousins after 2yrs. What is the cap hit on $100m guaranteed the next two years?? Bc if it is high you just probably spent the same amount as you would have on a high priced vet QB and therefore eliminated the main reason you’d take and start a rookie QB.. The rookie deal being comparatively cheap! So why do it?? Sure if he’s a game changer, which I think he can be, then sure it makes sense to take him, but not if you signed a high priced vet QB to, say, a 4yr/$180m deal… I’m lost on why they’d do that even if he ends up being great. I think he does have a chance too. He’s a legit deep ball threat on a down by down basis. Given the context though, it makes less and less sense. However, it does such ATL probably has a good to great QB for the next 5yrs regardless, which is the reason you’d do it I suppose.