Baker Mayfield Needs Takeaways (So Did Tom Brady)
July 13th, 2024
Needs help from defense.
Bucs coach Todd Bowles is a defensive guy through and through.
How does Joe come to this conclusion? Outside of the fact Bowles played safety in the NFL and has been a defensive coach all his post-playing life, listen to how Bowles always stresses takeaways.
He’s not as obsessed as lousy Lovie Smith was about forcing turnovers. But in the 21st century, defensive guys think turnovers are more important than points. It’s in their DNA.
And in a weird way, Bowles last year found the perfect quarterback. Because if the Bucs didn’t force turnovers, it was nearly a guaranteed loss.
Famed handicapper turned stathead Warren Sharp looked at each starting quarterback’s record when their team’s defense did not force a turnover the past three seasons. For Baker Mayfield, his record is downright ugly.
In the past three seasons playing for the Browns, the Stinking Panthers, the Rams and the Bucs, Mayfield has guided the teams he started for to a record of 1-11 when his team’s defense doesn’t get a turnover.
Yikes!
But to be fair to Mayfield, the man he replaced didn’t fare very well without the Bucs getting a turnover, either. In his final two seasons with the Bucs, Tom Brady was 3-6 when the Bucs didn’t force a turnover.
Other interesting nuggets on this stat of Sharp’s:
* Aaron Rodgers in 2021 and 2022 also had a losing record (2-7) when the Packers didn’t get a turnover.
* Pat Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Tua and Lamar Jackson all have winning records when their teams couldn’t force a turnover.
* The only NFC quarterback that doesn’t have a losing record when his defense doesn’t get a turnover the past three seasons is Jalen Hurts (6-6).
team record (and QB) when recording zero takeaways in games last 3 years:
0-9: DET (Jared Goff)
0-7: WAS (Sam Howell)
0-3: LV (Aidan O'Connell)
0-8: CAR (Bryce Young)
1-18: JAX (Trevor Lawrence)
1-12: CHI (Justin Fields)
1-11: TB (Baker Mayfield)
1-8: HOU (Davis Mills)
1-7: DAL…— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 9, 2024
July 13th, 2024 at 8:09 am
Caretaker offenses do worst when defenses can’t give them short fields. Baker will do better if it is not always 2nd and 10 this year.
July 13th, 2024 at 8:13 am
Only seeing part of the picture.
What are QB records when they had turnovers?
What are QB records when their team won turn over battles?
What are QB records when they turned the ball over?
July 13th, 2024 at 8:16 am
You almost have to look and see what the other team stats were for takeaways. If your opponent is averaging +2 takeaways in those games the chance of them winning or you losing is 70%. If the other team has zero takeaways and Mayfield has zero giveaways that is a terrible stat. Big difference though.
July 13th, 2024 at 8:27 am
Running game seems to play a part in this
July 13th, 2024 at 8:58 am
IMO, that is a stat that reflects more on the coach’s overall strategical thinking than the skill level of the QB. Mahomes coach, Andy Reid is an aggressive offensive coach, as an example. Aaron Rogers coach in GB took the ball out of his best players hands (Rogers) in the Bucs playoff win and handed it to a kicker. What idiot does that?
Todd wants to run, run, run even when the best players on the team are WRs and a great pass catching running back. Do the Bucs run well? No. But we never stop trying, lol
July 13th, 2024 at 9:05 am
i was just looking at DVOA for the Bucs defense last year.
Remember DVOA is adjusted for quality of your opponent.
A positive DVOA is what is wanted for offenses.
Defenses want a negative DVOA.
Last year the Bucs were very middle of the pack (again the DVOA includes quality of opponents so don’t say they play in a bad division, that stat accounts for that).
When rushing 6, the Bucs were 14th best.
When rushing 5, the Bucs were 24th best.
When rushing 4, the Bucs were 13th best.
When rushing 3 or less, the Bucs were 14th best.
The Bucs rushed 6 players 8.3% of the time.
The Bucs rushed 5 players 24.8% of the time.
The Bucs rushed 4 players 61.8% of the time.
The Bucs rushed 3 or less 5.1% of the time.
There is not a more comprehensive stat than DVOA and it shows the Bucs defense was the epitome of mediocre.
So, last year the Bucs offensive DVOA was 20th, defensive was 14th.
Compared with 2021 when we went 13 and 4, our DVOA on offense was 1st and defense was 13.
Or 2020 when won the Super Bowl, we started slowly as well but our DVOA was 3rd for offensive and 5th for defense.
July 13th, 2024 at 9:14 am
Teams that won the turnover battle had won the game 70% of the time in the NFL in 2023.
Offense giveaway total-20
Defense takeaway total-26
There were 8 games in 2023 where we gave the ball away at least once on offense and made at least one takeaway on defense with a combined 11 giveaway to 14 takeaways. We were 4-4 in these games.
4 of those games the offense and defense each recorded a single giveaway & takeaway each and nothing more. We went 3-1 in those games.
The other 4 games we went 1-3 with 7 giveaways to 9 takeaways. \
Wins-NO, GB, CAR, TN
Losses-ATL, PHI, IND, HOU
——————————————————————-
There were 6 games our defense recorded a takeaway(13 total takeaways) w/o our offense turning the ball over, we went 5-1 in those games. The one loss being to the Bills in Buffalo.
There were only 4 games our offense turned the ball over(9 total turnover) w/o our defense forcing a takeaway. We won none of those game and we played the Lions in 2 of those w/SF & New Orleans being the other opponents.
Bucs 12 games with a turnover on offense we posted a 4-8
Bucs 14 games w/a takeaway 9-5
This accounts for all 19 games.
I’m missing some, but did this with a mug of coffee in my lap and a toddler running laps around me, so sue me
July 13th, 2024 at 9:17 am
Mentioning BM and tb in the same sentence is blasphemy
July 13th, 2024 at 9:42 am
Todd also has seemed to prioritize time of possession over points as well.
But the 2024 version of Todd knows that scoring more points is essential.
#AsToddEvolves. 11-6
July 13th, 2024 at 10:32 am
This stat is a lot more of a gray area for Baker. It’s talking about the quarterbacks records over the last 3 years. Baker played on four different teams over the last 3 years so there was zero consistency. We’re talking about four different defenses that vary quite a bit. Curious to know what the win-loss record was from last season alone, cuz I think the Bucs forced a decent amount of turnovers last year. Way too lazy to look it up, though. LOL
July 13th, 2024 at 10:48 am
Please Joe. I get it you love you some Warren. Wow!
Go Bucs!
July 13th, 2024 at 11:16 am
LOL Joe’s going to steal that!
July 13th, 2024 at 11:18 am
garro:
Brace yourself. Joe knows you don’t like Warren Sharp. But it’s July. Meaning it is an NFL desert. Right now Sharp is the only guy putting out content regularly (and Joe finds it compelling content).
Better buckle up for the next two weeks.
July 13th, 2024 at 11:41 am
Everything football goes into it. But just remember the times Baker put the team on his back, down in games. He does have a little of that in him to. We got some more help when we get in tricky situations now, Irving and McMillan, let’s call them shock and awe. Don’t forget Superman and his ole partner Whitehead back there at safety. Dean did do most of his job knocking balls down, but he got the message about it. Let’s Go Bucs!!!!
July 13th, 2024 at 11:44 am
All teams need takeaways. They are game changers.
July 13th, 2024 at 12:11 pm
Joe … ‘Because if the Bucs didn’t force turnovers, it was nearly a guaranteed loss.’
On the surface, that’s true. But it still doesn’t follow that no takeaways (the cause?) meant a guaranteed loss (the effect). Many many other things were at play in each of those games.
Last season for example, the Bucs’ defense forced turnovers in 14 of our 17 games (got 0 turnovers against the Lions, 49ers & Saints). We lost each of those games. BUT … did we lose them because the defense didn’t force a single turnover? Not hardly. We lost them because the Bucs’ offense committed SEVEN giveaways in those 3 games. TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL is far more important than individual giveaways & takeaways.
BTW, the Bucs were 6-2 last season when we had a positive Turnover Differential. We were 3-2 when we had a zero Turnover Differential. And we were 0-4 when we had a negative Turnover Differential.
Remember when we started last season 3-1? Guess what; Bucs’ defense generated 8 takeaways, and our offense only gave it away ONCE. With an PLUS 7 Turnover Differential in 3 games, you stand an excellent chance of winning (just ask the Vegas odds-makers).
Statements like ‘Because if the Bucs didn’t force turnovers, it was nearly a guaranteed loss’ are quite misleading. The real situation IMO is that our offense wasn’t good enough last year to overcome a negative Turnover Differential. Of course, if the offense hadn’t given the ball away 18 times, the negative TD wouldn’t have been an issue because it wouldn’t have existed.
Todd Bowles might be a defensive-minded coach, but he’s correct in the role that turnovers play in game outcome. But I can just about guarantee that he’s laser-focused on BOTH sides of the ball when it comes to turnovers … GIVEAWAYS by the offense and TAKEAWAYS by his defense. It’s the TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL that’s meaningful.
July 13th, 2024 at 2:04 pm
“All teams need takeaways. They are game changers.“
Eh, they’re nullified if your offense can’t convert the ensuing possession into points. Really don’t understand why a points off turnovers stat isn’t tracked better in football, you’ve gotta almost so the play by play review and do the math yourself.
July 13th, 2024 at 2:28 pm
Joe, once again you have to compare BM to Brady. Let Baker stand on his own merits. While you don’t come out and say it, the subliminal message is quite obvious. I agree Baker is going to lead us to the SB this year. He will also lead the league in passing yardage, TD’s and have the best passer ratings (with or without take aways). Let’s not talk of Brady anymore. In your eyes, Brady was a major distraction that didn’t measure up. Let it go. Keeping it real in Ireland.
July 13th, 2024 at 5:06 pm
@Dude and @Defense Rules –
A+ additional context, which pretty much confirms what we’ve all thought / known: If you win the turnover battle, you usually win.
July 13th, 2024 at 5:10 pm
Apples and Oranges. Sharp is the one grasping here. Why not do stats on Astro turf or inclement weather? Stats really are for losers. Meaningful stats aren’t but those regurgitated from clown’s behinds are the equivalent of A n a l seepage.
July 13th, 2024 at 5:25 pm
I don’t know how Joe your I know you’re bored because there’s nothing else to talk about right now but we all know that turnovers generally mean we win just like any other team
July 13th, 2024 at 5:37 pm
Learned something about Baker today, he plays golf left handed.
July 13th, 2024 at 6:19 pm
Shawn Wronka wrote an interesting piece on Turnover Differential in ‘Covers’ (8-15-2023) titled ‘How Turnover Margin Affects Win Probability and Win Totals in the NFL’. He referenced a study conducted by the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective, in which they found that …
o Teams that won the Turnover Margin by 1 or more won 69.6 percent of the time.
o Teams that won the Turnover Margin by 2 or more won 83.9 percent of the time.
o Teams that won the Turnover Margin by 3 or more won 90.7 percent of the time.
Jimmy Boyd came up with similar numbers in his article title ‘How to Profit Handicapping NFL Turnover Differentia’ in his ‘Boyd’s Bets’ site …
o Teams that won the Turnover Margin by 1 or more won 68.0 percent of the time.
o Teams that won the Turnover Margin by 2 or more won 81.0 percent of the time.
o Teams that won the Turnover Margin by 3 or more won 89.2 percent of the time.
o Teams that won the Turnover Margin by 4 or more won 95.2 percent of the time.
Other studies have gone a lot deeper, looking at team talent impact on Turnover Margin, home field advantage on Turnover Margin, etc. But the bottom line is simple: There’s a strong correlation between Turnover Margin and win probability. Probably safe to assume that any head coach worth his salt pays attention to that correlation. Still, there are 2 sides to the coin: minimize giveaways on the offensive side of the ball and maximize takeaways on the defensive side.
July 13th, 2024 at 9:36 pm
Perfect qb and average 14 points in today’s nfl isn’t that impressive.