Success Percentage Not Successful For Bucs
January 14th, 2024
Struggling with successful plays.
It’s hard to believe for Joe, but this is what happens when you don’t have a run game and still run the ball as if magically 17 games of sample size will vanish into thin air.
One would think with an offense that has Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, one of the most dangerous receiving backs in the league in Rachaad White, and a top-10 quarterback in Baker Mayfield, the Bucs would rack up points regularly.
As Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast my friend!”
The Bucs rank 20th in the NFL in scoring per game. As for successful plays, the Bucs are the second-worst among the playoff teams. Former Dixie Chicks shot-caller Thomas Dimitroff now runs a stats outfit called Sumer Sports. There, Dimitroff’s gang has the Bucs with a successful play percentage of 40.8 percent, 25th in the NFL.
Joe thought it would have been worse.
What is a “successful play?” Well, it’s a play in which the offense gains at least 40% of yards needed to move the sticks on first down, 60% of yards needed to move the sticks on second down and 100% of yards needed to convert on third and/or fourth down.
The only team in the playoffs who had a worse success percentage than the Bucs is Cleveland. How’d that turn out last night?
If you move the ball and pick up first downs, you generally score points. Hard to do that when a team runs to nowhere.
January 14th, 2024 at 12:04 am
Team will most likely lose convincingly to Philly.
I hope they get rid of Bowles.
As I’ve said all along.
January 14th, 2024 at 12:25 am
Bowels as HC likely gives them roughly 95% chance of losing…. Dude has GOT TO go!….
January 14th, 2024 at 12:33 am
What’s odd is the Bucs coaches know they have Evans, Godwin, and White. They know they have success when they pass. So, they purposely make the decision to be ineffectual. That’s really weird.
January 14th, 2024 at 12:57 am
That comparison to the Brown’s who got spanked out of the playoffs is scary.
Really hope that doesn’t happen Monday night for a second year in a row.
January 14th, 2024 at 1:05 am
SlyPirate (Dirk?): maybe the OC doesn’t want #6 throwing too often, or in certain situations? Idk, but yeah, it’s odd.
January 14th, 2024 at 1:38 am
The bucs interior line is below average. Yet, Canales has to try run the a and b gaps, in order to hold the defenses linebackers. That’s why even a 3 yard gain serves a purpose. It’s gives play action a chance. Respectfully, anyone thinking abandoning the run is the answer doesn’t get it. It’s the defensive expectation of run, not necessarily the success of the run, that is crucial for the qb to have that extra half second to make the right read and throw. That expectation can freeze the linebackers, but if the interior can’t hold ( panthers game) it’s makes bakers job that much difficult . Stiinnie, hainsey, Mauch are the key to bakers success tomorrow.
January 14th, 2024 at 2:36 am
Hate to say it but…
Bucs are going to get embarrassed Monday night.
Bolwes will be overly blitz happy and give up easy 1st downs.
Not to mention Bowles will handcuff the offense.
Dammit, I hope I’m wrong. But let’s be real. Bowles is in way over his head.
January 14th, 2024 at 2:39 am
The problem is that with the rain Monday night the only thing the Bucs might have is a non existent run game.
January 14th, 2024 at 3:57 am
i cant nicely tell where the hate can stick their bs…all good joes
January 14th, 2024 at 4:05 am
24 20 BUCS BTCHAZ
January 14th, 2024 at 4:25 am
If folks just take a little time to ANALYZE why the Eagles lost 6 games you’d see a trend … Eagles beat themselves (duh). It appears to have much more to do with how their opponent’s DEFENSE performed … and how the Eagles’ offense imploded & beat themselves. The Eagles’ defense also struggled when their offense didn’t perform well & set them in a hole (duh again).
o Loss 1 to Jets (20-14): Jets offense stunk (21 runs for 89 yds rushing; 33 passes for 155 yds passing) BUT … Eagles turned the ball over FOUR times at critical times (to NONE for the Jets).
o Loss 2 to 49ers (42-19): 49ers had a nice balanced attack (as usual) with 28 runs (146 yds) & 27 passes (314 yds) and they converted a whopping 9-of-12 3rd/4th down opportunities … Eagles defense sucked that game IOW.
o Loss 3 to Cowboys (33-13): Cowboys had a decent balanced attack with 32 runs (138 yds) & 39 passes (271 yds) and they converted a nice 10-of-17 3rd/4th down opportunities, BUT … they were helped big-time by the Eagles turning the ball over THREE times (to ONE for the Cowboys).
o Loss 4 to Seahawks (20-17): Seahawks put up roughly 300 yds of offense with 24 runs (100 yds) & 33 passes (208 yds), BUT … Eagles’ offense once again turned the ball over (TWICE) at critical times, to NONE for the Seahawks.
o Loss 5 to Cardinals (35-31): Cardinals ran the ball down Philly’s throat with 40 runs (221 yds) vs 31 passes (232 yds) & converted 7-of-12 3rd/4th down opportunities, allowing Cards to win the TOP 40-20 minutes … Eagles defense sucked again in that game IOW.
o Loss 6 to Giants (27-10): Giants used a nice balanced attack in that one too with 30 runs (109 yds) vs 34 passes (311 yds), BUT … Eagles’ offense helped them by committing FOUR turnovers (to ONE for the Giants).
So looking at the Eagles’ 6 losses, they committed 14 turnovers while their opponents only committed 4 turnovers. Their opponents used relatively balanced attacks (175 runs vs 197 passes … 47.0% run-pass). Eagles offense only put up 104 points total in their 6 losses … 17.3 PPG average … as opposed to 29.9 PPG in their 11 wins. I’m thinking that TURNOVERS had something to do with it, in addition to their defense doing poorly on 3rd/4th downs. IOW, they beat themselves.
Bucs’ DEFENSE is the key to the game (yes win the Turnover Battle AND keep the 3rd/4th down conversion rate reasonable). Bucs’ OFFENSE needs to use a relatively balanced attack that focuses on playing COMPLEMENTARY FOOTBALL (taking advantage of Eagles’ offense turnovers especially). Expect a low-scoring game (20-17 or something like that).
January 14th, 2024 at 5:10 am
Dohtodd Bowles.
January 14th, 2024 at 5:10 am
Philly 27 Yucs 10 . Classic get right game for the Eagles
January 14th, 2024 at 5:44 am
No game plan and adjustment for Bowles, no win. DeMeco Ryans and Andy Reid displayed classic examples of game planning n getting their players ready to play on both sides of the ball. CJ Stroud doesn’t get rattled with happy feet in the pocket. He is so poised and accurate, he has a nice touch on the ball. He runs circles around Mayfield. Eagles will force Mayfield to beat them n that will be our demise, cause if he try going heroic on eagles like he did against Panthers, he’s toast n Bucs are roast. His shake n bake won’t work on eagles. Eagles game plan will be to get Baker rattled in the pocket for mistakes. Hope I’m wrong but if Bowles n Canales don’t have a contingency plan, then they didn’t watch n or learn anything from the two playoff games yesterday.
January 14th, 2024 at 5:45 am
Yes Joe I am confused. Top 10 QB , Evans, Godwin and White who is pretty damn good as a receiving RB. Yet the offense is rated near the bottom. My opinion is, and opinions are like rear ends, everybody has one is, Bowles offense is not playing to it’s strengths but playing to what Bowles want
January 14th, 2024 at 6:01 am
I’m still wondering why the NFL thought this matchup would be a good MNF game.
January 14th, 2024 at 6:47 am
Thank you for the data table. Yes, overall the stats aren’t as bad as we might have thought.
Clicking on each of the top field, the data gets even more interesting. Our sack percentage was 6.2%, scramble 4.9%, and interceptions 1.6% – and we are not on the bottom. There are team stats worse then us.
However, also agreeing with others, the coaching needs to be examining and reinforcing the areas that are not strong. Eagles are 5.8% with sacks, 8% with scrambles, and 2.4% with interceptions compared to us. Plus, so much more data.
Hoping for the best tomorrow night! We can win this.
January 14th, 2024 at 7:17 am
The Browns run the ball pretty well.
January 14th, 2024 at 7:19 am
Absolutely hate the run up the middle for nothing play after play. This team is built to throw. DAM!! Come on bowels. Or should I say radio 🤔
January 14th, 2024 at 7:21 am
Our primary problem is first down which sets up failure on the other downs.
We run the ball for zero or little gain….then pass the ball or run the ball again (with the pass behind the sticks)……3rd and 6 or 7….pressure on Baker.
Then, what infuriates me is the low percentage passes down field…
But then we usually have a good punt.
January 14th, 2024 at 7:45 am
Bucs have a severe deficiency with their inability to score much of anything on their 1st possession of every game. 1st possession plays are all scripted out before you even snap the ball , so one would have to assert that the scouting of the pones defense and scripting of the first series on offense is horrific-Dave Canales scripts plays. Needs to be less predictable.
January 14th, 2024 at 7:55 am
Oh I see , the negative Joe is at it again.
January 14th, 2024 at 7:57 am
What’s the point of posting if it takes hours for your comment to show because of moderation?
January 14th, 2024 at 8:22 am
You all act like we have Dan Marino as QB, we don’t. Mayfield has had some great games throwing, like G.B.. He’s also thrown for less then 50 yards in a first half more then once. Injury, or not, he couldn’t throw it last week, I doubt he can throw it much better this week. So you better hope we can run it some. Joe lives a fantacy that Baker should, or could drop back all day, and shred the Eagles. He can’t. Baker will be exposed Monday.
January 14th, 2024 at 9:16 am
CleanHouse Says:
January 14th, 2024 at 12:04 am
Team will most likely lose convincingly to Philly.
I hope they get rid of Bowles.
As I’ve said all along.
______
Undoubtedly, you’re also one of the clowns that thought we wouldn’t win four games and here we are in the playoffs… so instead of admitting you’re wrong, you double down on wrong and show you’re really not a fan.
We have the most clueless clown car fan base in the NFL.
$80 million over the cap, probably a worse performing line as last season… a brand new, and incredibly green offensive coordinator, a QB that was kicked to the curb three times in 13 months… and Bowles is to blame for winning our division the third straight season? Go root for the Cowboys already. There’s tons of Cowboy fans that don’t have a clue. You’d fit in well with them.
January 14th, 2024 at 9:31 am
So if I am reading this correctly, the answer to all our problems on offense is to make the team one dimensional…. sorry… “play to our strengths”.
Got it
January 14th, 2024 at 9:33 am
Need to score first
January 14th, 2024 at 9:38 am
There are offenses that are pass first. Passing first and more frequently may force the opponent into shifting their defense so the box is lighter. The Bucs also seem to have more success running outside.
January 14th, 2024 at 9:49 am
Hmmm? Now what would you do if you have a weak pass defense , a stronger run defense and you are playing an opposing quarterback who has a chest injury who ,even when healthy, was only a mediocre passer , and now, also has an ankle injury which limits his ability to scramble , and an opposing coach , who for God only knows why, absolutely refused to develop or prepare the backup quarterback for just such a situation? Well, IMHO , I believe I would try to force the other team away from my weakness, pass defense, putting eight in the box ,to cover their seemingly mandatory early down run and taking away quick passes , while putting on a strong rush , backed up by the occasional blitz , to insure the injured quarterback who can’t scramble and is inaccurate anyway , has no choice but to throw quickly , try to scramble, or eat the ball and take the hit, but who knows, we do have great kickers and a great defense, maybe we can push them back and slow them down with great booming punts , and with turnovers by our defense hold them to under twenty points , and then get close enough , ( within 60 yards ), that our outstanding field goal kicker , can make seven field goals and win the game, (barring fumbles and interceptions) yup, piece of cake!
January 14th, 2024 at 9:57 am
We looked horrible against the Saints because they utterly OWNED the line of scrimmage, couldn’t run, no time to throw to our vaunted receiving corp. (And, their defense played pass, assuming correctly we couldn’t run) That’s why the GOAT looked so bad against them the first two years, our only win being the playoff win with a hurt Drew Brees. Not sure how to fix that, as the Eagles will try same thing
January 14th, 2024 at 10:08 am
Yes, we need a running game – Canales is right about that. Obviously, we do not have the O-line, TE blocking and RB performance to make it happen this year. Is that on coaching, play calling, lesser quality players or all all of these?
Unfortunately, if Baker is still banged up we will not have a passing game either. If Bowles is stubborn about using a backup QB and Canales insists on running it up the middle – it will come down to the defense and McLaughlin again.
January 14th, 2024 at 10:38 am
Well, I have no doubt the Iggles are coming after a wounded QB. If this team gets stuffed in the running game I expect a lot of 3-and-outs.
I hope this team plays well, but doubt they can beat a more talented team.
January 14th, 2024 at 12:57 pm
Joe has already explained that.
January 14th, 2024 at 2:10 pm
DR, thank you for the excellent breakdown. Are you kidding me? Philly committed 14 TOs in their last 6 games?? Bowles loves TOs. Our D is already fired up, and they’re seeing that one? Don’t forget ST and the refs. Bucs lost the Buffalo game cos of a classic ref interference on a Hail Mary pass. I hope someone like BM and the O team captains are dropping Canales on his mental head. I’m hoping for a Cardiac Bucs win. It is sure looking that way. 🙂
January 14th, 2024 at 4:22 pm
Well the run game has actually worked a lot better as of late – and if you remove the late game runs where they’re just running out the clock – AND White stops taking a knee at the end of the game when he’s had break away runs instead — or at least took it inside the 5 before taking a knee, those numbers would look much better – as of late.
With that said, the Eagles are 31st in pass defense.
The Bucs should put the game on Baker, if they don’t, then it says a lot about the amount of trust they have in him.
January 14th, 2024 at 7:34 pm
Canales has no appreciation for the importance of knowing the players on his own team. Hard to believe, but that must be”it.”
Ya, he knows who are the receivers, etc., but the fact that he has two elite receivers and a bullet-proof check-down RB-receiver in Rachaad to design plays around, seems unimportant, and therefore he’s oblivious to it; in effect, it amounts to the same thing as “not knowing the players on his own team.”
Why else would he not call for a pass-play to chris until, huh! the end of the third quarter! yet run some stupid gimmick-run-play to Thomkins (a third stringer who’s “returning” to get some game-experience)?
Aren’t there enough squandered-downs as it is with all the run-plays-to-nowhere?
Does Canales have a calculator?: If you can’t “run-early” after a period of 10+ games-played sample size, what’s the risk/reward of keeping-it-up; that results in nothing but a lot of 3rd n’ 9s in yet another game of failed-drives with elite receivers running routes-to-nowhere because Canales doesn’t really know what -they’re- there-for?
No gimmicks in the playoff game please.
The coaching can’t handle the fundamentals, nevermind goofy, trick plays (which is just Canales/Bowles screwing around because they’re so far over their head they’ll try anything “to-get-lucky;” and if they do get lucky, they’ll strut around like they’re geniuses; they’re so fricken aggravating.)
(Why isn’t there an award for best team that: “Ended-up with a Winning Record In Spite of Their Clueless Coaching.”)
The Eagles defense isn’t going to fall apart in confusion just because you use Chris in a run-play, or the third string tight end on 3rd down.
It comes down to the same thing every game: gee, I hope Canales wakes up just use “the receiver-advantage.”
What can’t simpletons just do “the simple.”
January 14th, 2024 at 8:45 pm
You mean Bowles is still there??