Bucs Not Very Successful
December 16th, 2023
Bucs coach Todd Bowles.
Despite how Joe mocks the stat nerds, Joe is actually pro-stats. Joe just doesn’t swallow the mathematical gymnastics whole.
Any stat that uses the words “expected” or “adjusted” are two such examples. Whose expectations? Why are you adjusting numbers? That’s playing games with stats and reinforces something Joe learned from a high school teacher.
“You can always twist numbers any way you like to prove a point.”
One newer stat Joe likes is “success” plays. It demonstrates how well a team is moving the ball. A succcesful play is one that gains at least 50 percent of yards needed to move the chains on first down, 70 percent of yards needed to move the chains on second down and 100 percent of yards needed to convert on third down.
Looking at the numbers from a stat outfit known as Sumer Sports, run by former Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff, the Bucs are not a successful team with or without the ball.
The Bucs’ offense has had 40 percent of its plays deemed as successful, ranking 27th in the NFL. Part of this is Bucs offensive coordinator’s unshakable belief in running between the tackles. Unless a team is a superior running team, it is unlikely to have a bunch of successful plays early in a series running up the middle.
Yes, the Bucs offense has the feel of a team trying to set up third-and-longs rather than convert on first or second downs. The success numbers seem to back that up.
It’s not just the offense that isn’t successful. Teams move the ball on the Bucs’ defense at a very bad rate, per Sumer Sports. Some 45 percent of opponents’ plays on the Bucs are successful. That puts the Bucs at No. 29 in the NFL.
When your head coach is a defensive guy and the defense stinks, well, that’s not a good look.
As far as the poor offensive success numbers, this is what the Bucs want. The Bucs have the players and have the capability for more explosive plays. They choose instead to ground and pound. Short of a dynamic power back like Mike Alstott, you are rarely going to have an explosive offense with that style.
Look around the league and tell Joe how many teams have a running back like that? Tennessee sure. Atlanta, maybe with Bijan Robinson. And then tell Joe how well those teams are doing.
NFL Week 15 – Advanced Stats Preview
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers pic.twitter.com/ICIxGwUVHp
— SumerSports (@SumerSports) December 15, 2023
December 16th, 2023 at 12:11 pm
Spot on Joe, that stubbornness is going to get this coaching staff fired too. As a loyal fan it is frustrating to watch when I know we can get more out of this team.
December 16th, 2023 at 12:12 pm
Rebuild
December 16th, 2023 at 12:20 pm
Play-action on first down just once….
December 16th, 2023 at 12:27 pm
Not even play action on 1st, play action after 2 or 3 successful runs.
We always see one too many runs.
Just because it is working doesn’t mean you do it until they stop you.
They will!!!
Why wait until they do.
Wr should be seeing way more being AHEAD of the defensive coordinator at this point.
They get paid too, but there has been way too much, “Well, Let’s try this now”.
December 16th, 2023 at 12:36 pm
Sorry not wr, We.
December 16th, 2023 at 12:40 pm
They have to beat Pack and Jax then win out Stanks and Panters and wildcard. Then they are a success.
December 16th, 2023 at 12:41 pm
Belichek or Rivera. Both should be available in 4 weeks.
December 16th, 2023 at 12:43 pm
Yeah , even if the Bucs win out they are going to have to play Philly as the wildcard. Like last year it won’t end well. Bowles and Canales are history.
December 16th, 2023 at 12:45 pm
Oh No!
We Suck Again!
December 16th, 2023 at 12:49 pm
“A successful play is one that gains at least 50 percent of yards needed to move the chains on first down, 70 percent of yards needed to move the chains on second down and 100 percent of yards needed to convert on third down.”
Kinda hard for us to be successful when we keep wasting our first and second downs running between the tackles for one or two yards. Makes converting 3rd and long much tougher because defenses know we have to pass. This coaching staff is insane for running between the tackles and expecting different results.
December 16th, 2023 at 12:54 pm
Time to blow it up and rebuild. Start with a QB and then the trenches please. That’s the weak links in the chain not counting the bad coaching which goes without saying.
December 16th, 2023 at 1:12 pm
The offense stinks with new oc and Baker . In his last two games against Carolina and Atlanta ―both wins ― Mayfield has struggled, going an identical 14-of-29 passing for 202 and 144 yards, respectively. In most teams he will be benched with those stats . He only has had four games this season with pass rating of more than 100.
December 16th, 2023 at 1:12 pm
It took Thomas Edison over a thousand tries before he created a working lightbulb, the difference between Edison and the Bucs? When something didn’t work Edison went on to try something new and did not keep trying to do the same thing over and over again expecting different results and thank goodness for that or we would still be wandering around in the dark! (Now , we just wander around wondering why our offense doesn’t work but at least we have light!) .
December 16th, 2023 at 1:20 pm
It’s become perfectly clear that Bowles is a really bad head coach and his defensive schemes aren’t working anymore. Hope he proves me and others wrong by going 3-1 to close the season…but I doubt it!!
December 16th, 2023 at 1:24 pm
Since76 is spot on. This team needs to start from scratch with a new coaching staff that can develop a QB. An OC that’s not learning on the job and know how to get the most from his talent and a DC that can play aggressive and not 10 yards off receivers. Need to beef up the trenches and get rid of D.White, Davis, Dean, JTS and Neal to start.
December 16th, 2023 at 1:27 pm
O-line and secondary are more important than QB to get this team to the next level.
December 16th, 2023 at 1:53 pm
I expect our run game to continue to suck since we don’t make adjustments.
December 16th, 2023 at 2:19 pm
They need to put Baker in position to succeed. Constantly setting up the team in 3rd and long is quite the opposite, setting him up to fail just based on down and distance and the element of surprise
December 16th, 2023 at 2:24 pm
Joe I’m not big on the expected stats but those are more pure mathematically , less subjective than this stat you like which has a completely subjective definition of what is successful . That being said, I agree with you, the Bucs suck, TB sucks, DC sucks.
We have to lose so the coaching staff gets blown up !
December 16th, 2023 at 2:36 pm
Baker is a bad to average QB, Canales is a bad to average offensive playcaller. If Licht has any self preservation mode, he should be happy to replace Baker in the draft and fire Bowles and entire coaching staff.
December 16th, 2023 at 3:03 pm
If you consider taking a one hour nap in the middle of the game and not missing anything successful, then they are.
It is so hard to watch them try to set some record in 3 and outs each week, I would rather nap.
I do love the mirage of a good opening series. The one where they get close and come unglued enough for only a field goal. That seems to set the tone for boring football.
December 16th, 2023 at 3:10 pm
nothing changes -for the better- until bowles is gone
December 16th, 2023 at 3:58 pm
The Bucs have the players and have the capability for more explosive plays. –
Absolutely correct.
The passing plays are there- but for whatever reason, Mayfield is locked in on different receiver or misreads the coverage or waits too long to throw it or is inaccurate.
Evans was open several times vs Falcons- a couple of times could’ve been td’s.
Has nothing to do with Bucs’ improved running game taking away passing attempts.
Mayfield does deserve credit for avoiding turnovers for the most part but he is obviously still learning Canales’ system.
December 16th, 2023 at 4:03 pm
A superior O line let’s you get by with a lesser QB. Brock Purdy wouldn’t be looking all-pro without being surrounded by that team
December 16th, 2023 at 4:41 pm
Short of winning out and miraculously winning the first round of playoffs I can’t see Bowles keeping his job. These stats have to be similar to last year.
He’s not a good head coach, nothing wrong with that just do what you’re good at and be a coordinator but even that’s he’s not getting the job done
December 16th, 2023 at 6:30 pm
Go look at the same set of stats from after the Falcons game.
The falcons scored higher than us in every one of those statistical categories.
The 2023 Bucs consistently inconsistent and underperforming. Lose to good teams, sometimes beat bad teams.
December 16th, 2023 at 7:41 pm
Yup.
We suck.
Cant run.
Cant play defense.
Cant rush the passer.
Cant block, cant Tackle.
Vince Lombardi explained football in simple yet perfect terms.
If you cant block or Tackle- you suck.
And thats where we’re at.
December 17th, 2023 at 1:45 am
I just invented my own new stat Joe.
It’s simple….It’s called unless you are the Bucs stat.
Just put unless you are the Bucs after any stat and there you have it! Magic!
LOL
Go Bucs!
December 17th, 2023 at 4:34 am
My Dad use to say Liars figure and figures lie. He hated all the cooked up numbers. However, they do tell a story no matter how you lay them out. The story these numbers tell mean the Bucs may be in trouble. The only thing you can’t measure is a teams heart. If the Bucs have truly turned the corner when it comes to believing in themselves then these numbers don’t mean a damn thing. If they don’t really believe then we already know how this game is going to turn out. I know this the Packers are going to play hard and give us their best. If we can withstand the early onslaught and don’t fold up out tents we will have a chance in the end to win this game.
December 17th, 2023 at 8:35 am
Makes you wonder how the Bucs managed six wins to this point. Apparently their turnover advantage and superior kicking game count for something.
December 17th, 2023 at 10:53 am
Bosch Says:
December 17th, 2023 at 8:35 am
Makes you wonder how the Bucs managed six wins to this point. Apparently their turnover advantage and superior kicking game count for something.
Our wins are over the Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Titans, Bears and Vikings. Maybe the Vikings is a quality win. The rest are bad teams that we mostly squeaked out wins.