Stat Nerds Not Buying Bucs As A Playoff Team
September 20th, 2023
Bucs coach Todd Bowles.
Do you believe in history or do you believe in stat geeks? That’s what this boils down to.
As world-renowned JoeBucsFan.com columnist Ira Kaufman pointed out, since 1990, 64 percent of the teams that begin an NFL regular season 2-0 have advanced to the playoffs.
A stat-geeky site, something called SumerSports.com decided to use analytical data, algorithms and witchdoctor voodoo to come up with a playoff probability chart.
There, this site believes history is nonsense.
Sumer Sports, led by former Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff who worked alongside Jason Licht in New England, believes the Bucs’ 2-0 start and playing in a garbage division only gives Tampa Bay a 40 percent chance of playing a meaningful game in January.
The win over the bungling Bears only raised the Bucs’ playoff probabilities by a mere 5 percent. You can see the chart below.
Joe will just say this: Joe’s a proud history geek and has a degree in history. Joe will side with history rather than some kind of hocus-pocus fortune-telling computer program.
Ever hear of GIGO?
(Yes, Joe knows it’s premature to be talking playoffs in late September. Hey, a Bucs fan can dream, no?)
Updated Playoff Probabilities after Week 2 pic.twitter.com/zRP8Utj9d6
— SumerSports (@SumerSports) September 19, 2023
September 20th, 2023 at 1:11 pm
TBBF believes in stats based on history……that’s where the 64% comes from…..but TBBF also knows that there is 36$ short of certainty.
Let’s see where we are after the next two games…..if we can go 1-1….that would be very good.
September 20th, 2023 at 1:24 pm
Offensive lines tend to play better as a unit with more time together. Let’s see how they do against the Iggles, should be a good data point for the rest of the season
September 20th, 2023 at 1:29 pm
But they say there is a chance 🙂
September 20th, 2023 at 1:37 pm
I believe in playing the games and getting to at least the halfway point of the season. Where are we then plus our injury status.
September 20th, 2023 at 1:37 pm
One reason might be both the Falcons and the Saints won last week too – so the odds of winning the division wouldn’t have changed.
September 20th, 2023 at 1:37 pm
NFL is not just a spreadsheet!!!
Talking about playoffs stats on week 3, is like talking about saturn rings, nobody has a clue…. Just plain stupidity
September 20th, 2023 at 1:38 pm
Who cares? The start was great and much better than anticipated.
September 20th, 2023 at 1:43 pm
We’ll have a lot better idea by 11pm Monday night
September 20th, 2023 at 1:55 pm
Just win baby! Doesn’t matter what anyone else thinks. Can’t do anything but focus on the next game and Philly will be a huge test.
September 20th, 2023 at 2:00 pm
I believe in focusing and playing one game at a time. Talking playoffs after two games is ridiculous beyond measure.
September 20th, 2023 at 2:09 pm
To be fair they have the Bucs in the middle of the pack. Its more like a probability/Power Ranking.
September 20th, 2023 at 2:10 pm
ESPN has Eagles at 69.3 % and Bucs at 30.4% chance of winning the game.
Doubt that will change a fan’s mind on whether to stay home or not.
September 20th, 2023 at 2:10 pm
According to that chart Bucs are 15th best team and just leapfrogged 2 team’s ahead of them which puts them at 13. That gets you into the playoffs as a 6th or 7th seed.
September 20th, 2023 at 2:37 pm
We wont get ANY respect unless we win on Monday. Period!
September 20th, 2023 at 2:44 pm
(Sigh.)
Of course Joe cares. Otherwise, he wouldn’t have wasted the time and effort to type this.
And Joe also has a hunch Bucs fans care about the team in the playoffs.
September 20th, 2023 at 3:07 pm
7 teams in the playoffs now, I don’t buy the Bucs as a division winner but I could see them as a 7th or 6th seed with 9 wins
NFC is not great. NFC South teams will have higher wins than last year due to playing the AFC South and NFC North.
September 20th, 2023 at 3:21 pm
Eagles 34 Bucs 13, FLY Eagles FLY
September 20th, 2023 at 3:39 pm
Joe, do we need to have the Jim Mora talk?
September 20th, 2023 at 3:48 pm
Way too early in the season to predict anything. Just look at the first half of the Vikings game vs. the other halves we’ve played, if you don’t account for this in your predictions, then you’re way off. The Bucs have a good trend, but we don’t know how injuries will play out on the field. None of this stuff is in the stats that these guys run.
The value of these predictions is understanding what goes into the prediction and seeing if there is anything useful to be learned. When you have a black-box prediction, you don’t understand it and can’t learn from it. Total BS.
September 20th, 2023 at 3:49 pm
I get it … Stat geeks don’t trust Baker yet. And our running game is not good. We have a new OC and system. Our o-line has a new guy at every spot but center and technically Hainsey, while good, is our backup center. So we just have to prove it and the team has to earn it. Nothing wrong with earning it first.
September 20th, 2023 at 3:52 pm
Dan Says:
September 20th, 2023 at 3:21 pm
Eagles 34 Bucs 13, FLY Eagles FLY
I wonder what Eagles fans would say if their opponent posted something like this but on an Eagles fan site. I don’t have to wonder, they would lose their minds. I’ve never seen some many fights in a Bucs stadium as I did when Eagles fans showed up. Ridiculous!!
September 20th, 2023 at 3:59 pm
@Dan …. Proved my point; immediately turned it into a fight. I personally wouldn’t care but you know it’s true.
September 20th, 2023 at 4:44 pm
I LOVE LOVE LOVE THIS!!!
NOLA and ATL have a 25% better chance of making the playoffs? How? This is opinion made to look like science. Totally hot garbage.
JOE: You need an article of the week that tracks experts where they started the Bucs on the year and how/when they flipped during the season. We can use this year over year for historical reference and to determine whose opinion is worthwhile vs worthless.
September 20th, 2023 at 4:47 pm
Dan is an idiot and he proves it every time he post here. I mean, he’s not even a fan but he feels the need to come here and talk smack at us. Need for attention much?..btw, this is the only time I’m going to address his bullshit. I will not pay attention to his nonsense no more. (He better be glad I did just this one time…lol)
September 20th, 2023 at 4:55 pm
I get the interest. My father was a bookie. Odds and %’s count.
But for me I’m like D.R….we’re too old I guess LOL but it’s literally ONE game at a time.
Speculation is fun but let’s never forget Chucky’s final season in Tampa.
He started off 9-3..how great is that eh? Not great enough because the Bucs collapsed and lost FOUR IN A ROW! Of course that cost Chucky his job…or was certainly a big part of it. I don’t recall seeing many coaches fired after 9-7.
I gotta go all Yogi here…It’s not over till it’s over! But I support Joe’s enthusiam totally. Do we have to wait for an actual SB or can we have FUN one game at a time?
September 20th, 2023 at 5:23 pm
Orlando Buc, ignore Dan.
September 20th, 2023 at 5:40 pm
Win on Monday night and you’ll make believers out of people.
Not me, of course, since I’ve already picked the Bucs to win that game all summer, and then collapse, but I’d love to be right about the pick, and wrong about the collapse.
September 20th, 2023 at 5:52 pm
We have a lot to prove.
Need to go 1-1 the next 2 weeks.
LET’S GO!!!!
September 20th, 2023 at 6:03 pm
Got to love how inspired Tampa has played. Football outsiders have them rated as #8 based on DVOA stats that are very impressive. However, at this point they rate the Buccaneers as #22 given their strength of schedule (that is based on last year’s records. Most folks thinks they can’t beat another team that won a division last year (such as Minnesota). That gives them losses to Philly, Buffalo, Jacksonville or San Francisco. Winning on the road is difficult so they can’t see the Buccaneers winning at New Orleans or Atlanta. That gives you 6 losses. That is 11-6. Detroit is a favorite to win the Central. That would be 7. 10-7. That presumes you win the games you should win. Personally I think Jacksonville is beatable. Philly has the advantage of two extra days of practice, but their offense looks weaker this year with a new offensive coordinator. Anything between 8 and 11 is possible. By winning the division we get San Fran, Buffalo, and Philly. Win one of those three and we have a good chance at the division. Lose them all and those chances diminish.
September 20th, 2023 at 6:03 pm
The Packers are way up the line from us, and the only game they have won was against the Bears?
September 20th, 2023 at 6:54 pm
It’s early in the season, don’t be so sensitive about ratings. This isn’t college football, where people rate you doesn’t mean a thing. Also if the Bucs win, people will believe in them.
But in 2018 the Bucs were in this exact same spot.
2-0, going into a MNF game vs a team from PA.
Dirk lost that game when he, like a gutless coward, punted from the Steelers 35 yard line, showing that he had no faith in the offense, and of course the Steelers drove down and got a TD in like 3 plays. That’s the same move Bowles would make in that situation – at least in past years. Maybe it’s a new day in Tampa Bay and Bowles has changed from that disgraceful Browns game last year.
In any case I’ve picked the Bucs to win this game all summer long, this is just a game the Bucs win.
Meanwhile, that game for the Lions, really doesn’t matter what else happens, that’s a game the Bucs always lose. So even if they’re 4-0, they’re not getting that W, and it has nothing to do with X’s and O’s, it’s the Gods of football determining a L there, so don’t get too down on that L.
September 20th, 2023 at 9:04 pm
That would take up so much time. LOL
September 21st, 2023 at 1:55 am
Wow ….Deep Space Nine wasn’t that far out there.
Stats for this early in an NFL season don’t mean squat.
Geez!
September 22nd, 2023 at 4:10 am
Okay Dan you Douschebag…you’re Team the Parrots will come out Tampa Monday night with 1 in the L column …34- 17 ? They almost blew A 18 point lead to the Patriots? Mac Jones 316 yards 3, THREE? TOUCHDOWNS DANG I DIDNT KNOW HE WAS GOOD…oh wait, he’s not! Your teams below average secondary sure made him look tho….Curt Cousins 384 yds 4 , FOUR? TOUCHDOWNS? REALLY? YOU CANT BE SERIOUS RITE NOW.. THE EAGLES SECONDARY getting carved up like turkeys. I see Mayfield carving them up too.. We might let you score 14 or 17.. our players are drooling r now knowing your teams coming to town….after we get out 3 or 4 turnovers we been getting out running game will get going this week too.. NFL not for long EAGLES YOU WILL BE Disappointed this week Eagles fans …Tampa Bay Has a Way Better Defense…and Philly couldn’t stop a J.V QB r now …27-17 Tampa B Mayfield 350 yds 3 TD 0 int .,Jalen ButtHurts 183 0TzD 2 INT 1 Fumble ..let’s get realistic .we own the Eagles…nothing chsnges this week except for snyones mind who keep doubting B Mayfield and the determined squad LFG!!!!