The Offense After Two Games
September 20th, 2023
Bucs OC Dave Canales.
You’ve heard it. Joe’s heard it. We’ve all heard it.
A narrative seeping out of One Buc Palace is that the Bucs have a new offense (true) and it will take time for everyone to get on the same page for the offense to run smoothly (likely true).
If you believe those two premises — Joe believes those hold water — then this offense could be fun as heck to watch.
First the sort of OK: The Bucs are tied for fourth-best in the NFL with five touchdowns after two games. (Or, if you are a glass-half-empty kinda guy, the Bucs are the fourth-worst in touchdowns scored.)
Now here is a stat the Bucs shouldn’t strive to achieve: The Bucs have the fourth-most three-and-out drives.
Maybe Joe is wrong but aren’t two goals for a team that wants to run the ball as much as Bucs say they do is controlling the ball and thus controlling time of possession? If those are the goals of Bucs coach Todd Bowles and offensive coordinator Dave Canales, Joe doesn’t think the way to go about it is to stack up three-and-out drives.
Once again, it’s great to want to run the ball. But if you don’t have the horses to do it, you’re just p!ssing in the wind.
The fact the offense has room to grow and is currently middle-of-the-pack in touchdowns is reassuring.
It’s all about points, people.
3-and-outs this season:
14 – PIT
13 – IND, CIN
12 – JAX, PHI
11 – MIN
10 – TB, TEN, CAR
9 – CHI, ATL, NYG
8 – NE, GB, CLE, DAL
7 – KC, WAS, SF, HOU, NYJ, DET
6 – ARI, LAC, MIA
5 – BUF, SEA
4 – NO, LAR, DEN
3 – BAL, LV— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) September 20, 2023
September 20th, 2023 at 11:05 am
Monday is going to be a real test of this O.
September 20th, 2023 at 11:06 am
Hats off to Canales. Best move of the offseason.
might be a little dink and dunk but at least they are doing the roll outs, screens and using the edges effectively.
Would like it if the games were not so close, but hopefully that will come with time. I also like the clock management.
the run game may not be great, but this iffense dominated TOP in the bears game and 2nd 1/2 of the vikes I thinks. I don’t mind that when we are up as it only weakens their D and gives our O/running game time to get yards on a winded D.
Igles and Saintrs will be huge test. If we beat both of them I will be fully on board the lovie/bowls train.
September 20th, 2023 at 11:10 am
The Bucs better get their running game going against the Eagles. It was improved against Chicago but still not good enough to beat a team as good as Philly…
September 20th, 2023 at 11:16 am
Not sure how Mr Sharp does math, but I count 5 3-and-outs against the Vikings and only 3 3-and-outs against the Bears. Puts us more in the middle of the pack and with significant improvement game 1 to game 2.
September 20th, 2023 at 11:17 am
I’ve noticed halftime adjustments which is good. DC is just getting his feet wet and will improve over time, the one thing we haven’t seen is a multiple TD deficit which is hard for ant team to come back from but I wonder what is going to happen if Mayfield has to drop back 40+ times.
September 20th, 2023 at 11:22 am
Bucs are tied for 7th with most three and out drives this season, not fourth. BTW, the Eagles are tied for fourth. Seems they’ve done worse than us. I’d like to see how many three and outs we’ve had since right before the half in week one. Seems like our offense has been much better since the opening two quarters of the season.
September 20th, 2023 at 11:22 am
Upside is I see the Eagles are even Worse.
September 20th, 2023 at 11:33 am
Simply can’t run the ball….inside, outside……our Bend’a’rounds have been effective because Thompkins has speed…..we need more production out of our TEs.
September 20th, 2023 at 11:44 am
Canales has said the only way to build a strong running game is to keep pounding away at it. He’s sticking with it, remaining patient, and they’re 2-0. It will be interesting to see how he handles the playcalling if the other team goes up by a couple of scores.
September 20th, 2023 at 11:56 am
Buc’s running game was better in week 2 than week 1, but it has to improve if the offense is going to sustain drives and be effective in the red zone. We’re stuck this season with the OLine that Licht has signed, so it’s up to the coaches to coach them up and Canales to design and call plays that work to their strengths.
September 20th, 2023 at 12:00 pm
The Bucs have a solid D-line and both inside and outside backers to keep Hurts in line. That means he will have to beat them with his arm, and he needs to do dual work to win big.
If Canales can keep tweaking the offense we have a good chance of keeping in the game. The run game is working well enough for play action to work, and that will be important as the line grows in.
September 20th, 2023 at 12:02 pm
Well… if you go on the argument that our 4Q offensive play calling was conservative, than it shouldn’t surprise anyone that we ate a couple of 3 and Outs during that stretch. I think contextual the stat is misleading. If the 3 and Outs happen in the latter part of the game with a lead, then it’s about taking time off the clock. I know everyone wants a killer, where we finish on offense with sustained drive after sustained drive, but clock management is so huge as well.
YET… I’m not of the camp that says we took the foot off the pedal in the 4Q against the Bears. Our play calling didn’t suggest that, or we would’ve eaten run play after run play, but we actually attempted passes.
September 20th, 2023 at 12:32 pm
I wouldn’t put much stock in rankings right now. We have played only two games so outliers have huge impact on averages or rankings. I would imagine the first half of the Vikings game weighed heavily into our ranking for three and outs. Let’s circle back on this topic in a weeks.
September 20th, 2023 at 12:33 pm
Canales is as good as gone next year unfortunately with the way things are going.
September 20th, 2023 at 12:56 pm
Remember that an offensive possession can only end with a score, a turnover, a turnover on downs or the end of a half or a game. At least with 3 and outs a team has a chance to punt their way out of trouble. Don’t see that as as much of a negative when you have a punter as good as ours. The biggest key for the Bucs is continue to protect the ball. Hard to do against the Eagles, who have created 6 turnovers so far this season. Yes, 1 more than us.
September 20th, 2023 at 12:58 pm
Bucs stink more thenn half of you fat Joe Buc Fan nut huggers jajajajaja
September 20th, 2023 at 2:08 pm
most importantly, the eagles have more than the bucs. there is no reason why the bucs cannot increase the eagles 3 and outs this monday, unless they get outcoached.
September 20th, 2023 at 2:32 pm
Small datasets are of little use in evaluating overall performance, and are completely incapable of revealing trends. Two games is a very small dataset. And if one were to break down the data by halves or quarters, it tells a little different story. The first half of the Week 1 game the Bucs offense was horrible. Starting at the two minute warning of the first half, through the third quarter of the Week 2 game, the Bucs offense looked pretty good, before getting killed by drive killing offensive penalties in the fourth quarter of that game.
And, it is important to note that it was not the fault of any of the running backs that holding calls and early movement flags killed the last three drives of the Bucs offense in Week 2 – that was on the offensive line, and on Mike Evans, who despite having a helluva game still committed a holding penalty that killed one of the drives.
Running backs, unless they are the ones who are committing the fouls, have zero to do with drive killing offensive penalties.
Bottom line – you cannot judge a team or a unit or a player on the basis of just two games that, as they often do, vary widely from quarter to quarter.
Give it another two months worth of games, and then we’ll be able to make some judgements and draw some conclusions.
That’s why the games in November and December are called the “money games” – that’s where a team proves it’s real, or revives itself, or crashes and burns. The September and October games are just the warmups for the money games.
September 20th, 2023 at 2:41 pm
Man…I keep reading comments about this being a dink and dunk offense. Not sure what color the sky is in their world. I see it as a pretty aggressive offense. Listening to DCs presser last week he was talking about using his stud WRs deep but if the defense is giving him the short passes/checkdowns to his RBs and TEs he will take it all day long. This is not a conservative offense. Each week the the O line is building continuity and the skill players are adding wrinkles to the system. Philly will be a test but I think we can hold or own. Not impressed by Carr and the saints. 3-1 maybe 4-0 after 4 weeks is very possible.
September 20th, 2023 at 2:42 pm
Canales needs to get better as a coordinator fast. We still run up the gut too much on first down. And it seems every time they do run on first down it’s for minimal to no gain. Stop wasting downs. Be creative.
September 20th, 2023 at 2:52 pm
Just to REALLY show how TERRIBLE of a locker room cancer Kareem Hunt is………Browns sign him. GREAT guy. Tough player. Too bad the NFL has destroyed the value of any runner 27 years or older. HUNT has good speed, good size, and, GREAT hands. He’s the best looking H-Back Tight-end in the grooming !!!! Danny Baker Buc Esq.
September 20th, 2023 at 3:19 pm
@ Danny
“Too bad the NFL has destroyed the value of any runner 27 years or older.”
The NFL didn’t destroy the value of running backs – it is basic supply and demand.
Running backs are coming out in the draft by the bushel. Our current RB2 is an UDFA… Last year the Chiefs won the Super Bowl with a 7th round draft pick (#251) as their prime RB. In general the average running back only plays 4-5 seasons due to injuries and the pounding these guys take.
Plus – teams (in general) are more WR heavy on their rosters and only carry 3-4 RBs on the 53 MR…
September 20th, 2023 at 3:28 pm
@Brandon…I think you might have that a little mixed up.
September 20th, 2023 at 3:37 pm
The only stat that matters at this point is that we are 2-0. We haven’t had time to compile numbers, so all this speculation about scant stats is a non starter for me.
September 20th, 2023 at 3:52 pm
I don’t get it Joe. When I look at the ‘Drives Summaries’ on Pro-Football-Reference, it looks to me like we had FOUR 3-and-outs in the Vikings game plus TWO 3-and-outs in the Bears game. That’d total SIX 3-and-outs from what I can see, yet the chart in the article says that we had TEN 3-and-outs over our 2 games.
Must be missing something I guess, because the other 2 teams shown with Ten 3-and-outs (Titans & Panthers) didn’t have 10 either.
Also, the FOUR 3-and-outs that our Bucs’ offense had in the Vikings game all came in the 1st half (we definitely started slow). And in our 2nd game against the Bears, we only had TWO 3-and-outs … 1 in the 2nd qtr & 1 in the 3rd qtr. Last season we also had SIX 3-and-outs in our first 2 games (both wins also).
September 20th, 2023 at 3:53 pm
If we throw out the first half of the Vikings game, and the Q4 of the Chicago game, what’s our 3 and out %? That’s a more meaningful view. Does 3 and out percentage correlate to winning? Maybe, maybe not.
September 20th, 2023 at 4:48 pm
Goedeke is going to get majorly tested on Monday. He needs TE help and a RB on the right side to protect from blitzers. I’d advocate moving the pocket and more screens on passing downs.
September 20th, 2023 at 5:33 pm
I’m very surprised so far with the O. In a good way. It seems like they are in schedule. Practice makes better.
September 20th, 2023 at 5:37 pm
A good amount of those teams with the least 3 and outs are very good. Denver, Vegas, etc…so whatever just win the game you’re playing and then win the next one. That’s all.
September 20th, 2023 at 5:57 pm
What DR said!
September 20th, 2023 at 6:19 pm
@ Danny- the girl that got kicked around by Kareem Hunt at the casino in OH would like to have a word about what a GREAT guy he is. There is a reason he was sitting on the couch until week 3.
September 21st, 2023 at 12:14 am
This stat would be much more meaningful if it was shown as a percentage of their total drives, because some teams have had more drives than others…
September 21st, 2023 at 1:57 am
First week at the Vikes scewed that stat Joe.
Go Bucs!
September 21st, 2023 at 4:10 am
I AM VERY PROUD OF WHAT THE BUC’S HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DO AS A “TEAM” SO FAR..LIMITING THE MISTAKES & FORCING THE OPPOSITION INTO MISTAKES ( THAN CAPITALIZING ON THEM )THIS TEAM PLAYS WITH ALOT OF HEART & DETERMINATION THE ENTIRE TY OF THE GAME ( IN ALL 3 PHASES )..LOOKING FORWARD TO THE ULTIMATE UPSET OF THE WEEK MONDAY NIGHT ON A NATIONAL STAGE ( I BELIEVE THIS TEAM IS UP TO THE TASK & CAN PLAY WELL AGAINST “ANY” TEAM IN THE LEAGUE ) LED BY A GRITTY, MORE MATURED BAKER MAYFIELD, I BELIEVE THIS TEAM IS CAPABLE OF WINNING IT ALL THIS YEAR..THEY HAVE ALOT OF SMART PHYSICAL PLAYERS WITH A GREAT MIXTURE OF VETERAN’S & YOUTH & TEAM SPEED HAS DEFINITELY IMPROVED FROM LAST YEAR..I’M EXPECTING A 4-0 RECORD GOING INTO OUR BYE WEEK & SOME NATIONAL RECOGNITION..LET’S GO BUC’S ! ! !
September 21st, 2023 at 4:19 am
WOULDN’T MIND THE BUC’S ACQUIRING “CAM AKERS” TO GIVE OUR RUNNING ATTACK A BOOST..( I’M SURE BAKER HAS SOME FAMILIARITY WITH HIM FROM PLAYING WITH THE RAMS LAST YEAR..