No-Risk-It; No-Biscuit Offense Barely Alive
September 20th, 2023
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield.
The way Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales wants to run the ball (so does his boss, Todd Bowles), and given the way Baker Mayfield wasn’t a great deep thrower, Joe surely didn’t expect Mayfield to excel throwing deep.
Joe expected a more dink-and-dunk offense from Canales. That may come true. However, Mayfield already has demonstrated he can throw the long ball. Jeff Kerr of CBS dug up interesting stats on Mayfield targeting Mike Evans.
Baker Mayfield to Mike Evans (throws of 25+ air yards):
2-of-3, 125 yards, 2 TD
So no, the long-ball is not dead and the missed deep shot to Evans was a drop on opening day. But the deep passing game might be on life support.
This is why Mayfield has surprised the NFL. In an area he wasn’t expected to excel, Mayfield, at least when he throws deep to Evans, is having good success.
Baker Mayfield to Mike Evans (throws of 25+ air yards):
2-of-3, 125 yards, 2 TD, 149.3 rating#Buccaneers #GoBucs@JoeBucsFan
— Jeff Kerr (@JeffKerrCBS) September 19, 2023
September 20th, 2023 at 9:16 am
I think most people are just mockingbirds, they hear something then it is repeated over and over until their echo chamber thinks it is a fact. Watched Mayfield thru college and he threw deep with success. 5+ plus OC and coaches in his years as a pro, I challenge anyone to be successfu.
September 20th, 2023 at 9:17 am
How fantastic would it be for Mayfield to become the Comeback Player of the Year in Buc swag?
It could happen, not saying it will, but so far, so good.
He’s no GOAT, but I like the juice he brings to the QB position. It’s clear his teammates do, too.
This *could* be a majical season IF he keeps it up and the O continues to improve…and the team stays healthy.
September 20th, 2023 at 9:18 am
And he hasn’t even started targeting our secret weapon, Napalmer, downfield yet. I think this offense has a lot of potential. How many times last year did we see Evans running wide open down field? Not many. And our running game is improving. But the key on Monday will be stopping Phillys run game
September 20th, 2023 at 9:19 am
Right now the connection between Evans, and Mayfield is better than the connection between Brady, and Evans was all last year. In their third season together Brady, and Evans were rarely on the same page. All last year my wife kept asking, why aren’t they throwing to Evans? Leftwich couldn’t figure it out, seems Canales has. Don’t know why there’s this myth that this offense doesn’t take shots down field, it certainly does. The thing with this offense is it isn’t always a risk throwing deep.
September 20th, 2023 at 9:27 am
I’ve been happy with the playcalling with the exception of throws to the TE’s 2 yards short of the markers on 3rd down. Canales called shots in the Vikings game to Evans and Kieft. I like that we threw to Kieft in front of the Minnesota fans. The seem routes to the TE’s will be coming when appropriate. Palmer is still developing and he will be a deep target. I think Canales is saving a lot of the playbook for future games and that’s going to include some medium-deep plays where the receiver gets set up for big YAC.
September 20th, 2023 at 9:32 am
Hodad
I hadn’t thought about that but you’re right. I can remember all year long last season anticipating Brady and Evans getting on the same page. It finally happened against Carolina almost the last game of the season
September 20th, 2023 at 9:40 am
Well In 2020 he was rated 6 in deep balls …..The NFL and Next Gen Stats released the top 10 deep ball throwers in 2020 and the Browns quarterback’s ranking matches his jersey number at six overall.
September 20th, 2023 at 9:43 am
Said it before I will say it again…2020 baker had one of the highest completion rates in the league on passes of 20+ yards. I think the balanced offense we are running sets up the long ball nicely.
September 20th, 2023 at 9:44 am
Shake n Bake….let’s go. Let’s see how we do against the Eagles and Saints on the road. I’ll be at that Saints game hopefully angering Saints fans as the Bucs handle business.
Go Bucs!
September 20th, 2023 at 9:48 am
Being a larger target with a bigger catch radius makes throwing deep to ME13 safer and easier. You can throw it high, overthrow it a bit, you just can’t under throw it.
September 20th, 2023 at 9:50 am
No risk it really only works with Evans, Godwin, AB, Gronk and a stacked receiver room.
Modern NFL is about the short quick passing game, YAC and play action passes to create space. Good riddance to the no risk it offense destroying our players hamstrings
September 20th, 2023 at 9:59 am
No risk it, no biscuit. An embarrassment of a phrase. You throw to the open man. Whether he is 5, 10 or 20 yards away.
Running is better. Clearly. Don’t need White or Tucker to rush for 1,000 yards. Just make positive gains and make 2nd and 5 or 3rd and 3.
September 20th, 2023 at 10:10 am
We missed out on a lot of points vs the Bears. Overthrew Godwin on a td, Palmer ran the wrong route ona td, blocked field goal etc
September 20th, 2023 at 10:49 am
Sometimes people believe what they want to believe
September 20th, 2023 at 10:55 am
Folks who think Baker can’t throw deep need to get off Odell Beckham’s dad’s friends list.
September 20th, 2023 at 10:57 am
First name@ not true, rarely were the four receivers on the field at the same time. Godwin was injured in 2021 and Gronk missed 5 games. That was the main problem last season, the O was built around BA’s no risk it no biscuit and Bowels tried to force the square peg into a round hole.
September 20th, 2023 at 11:00 am
People are only surprised of Baker’s success because they tend to believe what they want to believe. Evidently he hasn’t been popular with much of the media and some fans and so it seems they’d prefer to see him fail. The objective viewers could see the greater potential in his signing, however, speak otherwise.
September 20th, 2023 at 11:05 am
NE Fan Says:
September 20th, 2023 at 10:57 am
First name@ not true, rarely were the four receivers on the field at the same time. Godwin was injured in 2021 and Gronk missed 5 games. That was the main problem last season, the O was built around BA’s no risk it no biscuit and Bowels tried to force the square peg into a round hole.
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You’re way off… and something tells me that you aren’t interested in the facts. The biggest problem last year was Brady. That was not a No Risk it, No Biscuit offense. That was Brady audibling to smoke screens a ridiculously high percent of the time during the first three quarters… unsuccessfully, I might add. When he wasn’t audibling to smoke screens he was checking down prematurely. Brady became a safety first QB whose main and primary objective was to not get hit. He wanted nothing to do with standing in the pocket. He led the league in lowest sack percent at 2.9%… he was sacked at a 4.8% rate during his time with New England so don’t give us the “offensive line was garbage” line. The line was fixed more than halfway through and Brady still lacked the nut sack necessary to stand in the pocket and make tough throws. He was rated the 18th QB in the league last season throwing the ball… behind Justin Fields. Brady was the problem last year…. blame it on Leftwich, the line, the RBs, all you want…. but the main culprit was #12.
September 20th, 2023 at 11:22 am
Of course the walking shizz stain comes to run his mouth that smells like bradys balls
September 20th, 2023 at 12:28 pm
I don’t know that “no riskit no biskit” was about throwing the ball way down the field on every snap. It was mostly about throwing period, short, medium and long and not sticking with the run. In 2023, we attempted 499 passes and 386 runs – a ratio of 56%. In 2021, it was 731 to 385 – a ratio of 66%. And in 2020 it was 626 to 369 – a ratio of 63%.
Whereas in the two games so far this season, the Bucs have thrown 68 attempts to 67 rushing attempts – 50%. That’s a pretty big change.
“Dink and dunk” is not about throwing it fewer times … some of the most pass happy teams throw the ball a lot … they just don’t attempt and make many longer passes. Sure, there will be sideline passes and screens that don’t go far in the air and that’s OK. But if most of the passes are within 5 yards of the scrimmage line, that’s “Dink and dunk”. I don’t believe that is the Canales offense.
Indeed, play action passing is a standard of the old Seattle offenses, especially with Russell Wilson under center, and therefore also of Dave Canales, and it is also a specialty of Baker Mayfield … play action passing is not about passing it two yards in the air. If done right, play action passing easily results in medium (>10 yards) to long (>20 yards) passes.
September 20th, 2023 at 12:42 pm
Beat Philly then we might…have something.
September 20th, 2023 at 1:03 pm
Its just a buzz word for the simple minded. We have two elite possession receivers that break tackles after the catch. You gotta get them the ball and let them make the plays. You have to throw them contested passes. Evans gets the best amount of separation when the ball is in the air and the receiver and defender make a play on it. It results in a lot of contact that at the very least draws flags in his favor as of late. Godwin has better hands in traffic, but Evans has a larger catch radius. Its not scheme, its just physics.
September 20th, 2023 at 1:05 pm
Its just a buzz word for the simple minded. We have two elite possession receivers that break tackles after the catch. You gotta get them the ball and let them make the plays. You have to throw them contested passes. Evans gets the best amount of separation when the ball is in the air and the receiver and defender make a play on it. It results in a lot of contact that at the very least draws flags in his favor as of late. Godwin has better hands in traffic, but Evans has a larger catch radius. Its not scheme, its just physics.
September 20th, 2023 at 1:08 pm
Just watch Bakers highlights of his short career and tell me he can’t throw a deep ball! Bad take
September 20th, 2023 at 1:26 pm
The Eagles will be a tough W. But Mayfield has shined in night games before. While I don’t expect a win, I won’t be shocked if we pull it out.
September 20th, 2023 at 1:33 pm
Kidfloflo is right. Baker can absolutely through the bomb. I watched ever game that man has played in the NFL. It’s all on YouTube folks. Btw, since Baker got bounced out of Cleveland the Browns have had a losing record at 8-11. And that creep Watson is 4-4 with a 58% completion rate. Worth ever penny of his $230 million guaranteed salary.
September 20th, 2023 at 1:34 pm
“Throw” the bomb.
September 20th, 2023 at 1:43 pm
Brandon (u got that name right CLUELESS). Brady was ranked 10th and had the worst running game in the league and one of the lowest wr separation % in the league not to mention the oline and Swiss cheese D. BA called on a QB in his 40’s that lacked mobility. Brady made his career from check down underneath passes and PA (play action so you don’t hurt yourself trying to figure out what PA meant). Risk it No biscuit is look deep first, not throw deep. 1st option. FYI moron, you CANNOT run PA without a running game, if any of you played the game at a high level know this. Another point to ponder, your D is clicking due to the synergy in your LB’s. Shaq, LVD and White play well together, once one is out White is lost. I am done defending or should I say educating you clowns/haters on Brady, believe what you like. You will be the same blows that will call for Mayfields head after his first poor game. Let’s Go Brandon, beat the Eagles.
September 20th, 2023 at 1:47 pm
JBBUCS_06 Says:
I’ll be at that Saints game hopefully angering Saints fans.
Enjoy the Game but keep Dale Mooney in mind.
In a Crowd of 60,000 there is bound to be at least a few Whack-Jobs.
If you happen to be in a nice cozy Suite with Awesome eats and drinks then I tip my hat and am Green with Envy.
September 20th, 2023 at 3:35 pm
Do even a small amount of research and you’ll find that Mayfield is one of the best deep passers in the NFL. It just wasn’t true in his injured year and with McAdoo’s 1 yard screen pass based offense.
It’s the middle of the field where Mayfield has historically struggled statisitically.
September 20th, 2023 at 3:35 pm
Also, don’t forget Arians was in love with Mayfield…because of his deep ball.
September 20th, 2023 at 3:57 pm
Be careful in New Orleans. They’ll be Lsu contingent on hand. Worst fans in the world.
Don’t wear ur bucs jersy after game down in French qtr
September 20th, 2023 at 5:55 pm
New Orleans is a great city, have fun!
Man that’s wild to think he’d be 3/3 with 3 TDs if Evans didn’t drop that first one…
September 20th, 2023 at 6:03 pm
The point of running all those playaction passes, should be to setup downfield throws every once in a while.
It’s why Leftwich was so stupid last year to be so predictable on first down with those runs up the gut, and to not use playaction to take advantage of how predictable he was (then again, if he did that, I guess he wouldn’t be predictable).
However keep in mind there’s only 1 game on tape of Canales as of the Bears game, and the more games they play, the more predictable he’s going to become since everyone has tendencies that show themselves after a while.
But I’ve been very impressed with the playcalling. Even in the 1st half of the Vikings game when nothing was working, I still liked the calls, and it’s been a very long time since I’ve thought that.
So far, so good with Canales.
September 20th, 2023 at 6:10 pm
Watch More ALL22 Before Commenting Says:
September 20th, 2023 at 3:35 pm
Do even a small amount of research and you’ll find that Mayfield is one of the best deep passers in the NFL.
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Baker has been great so far this year… but this nonsense is laughable.
NFL deep passer rating leaders 2018 to 2022.
Mayfield is #38, right behind Daniel Jones, and ahead of Brock Osweiler.
I swear the Mayfield fanbois were all previous Trask fanbois, and their entire goal is to try to make people hate whoever they like.
September 20th, 2023 at 6:17 pm
Baker not just folding up like a used chair like the goat and just running for his life while looking long, LMAO
Very entertaining, go Buc’s in a stunner!!!!!!
September 20th, 2023 at 6:21 pm
One of these times pretty soon, he’s going to be scrambling and somebody’s gonna break open down field for a 60 yrder. Hide and watch, I’m thinking Monday night. BANG
September 21st, 2023 at 2:36 am
Very Very encouraged by those number Joe.
If Canales’ offense can get a bit better in the run game. I expect it will only improve those numbers.
Go Bucs!
September 22nd, 2023 at 9:17 am
Brandon is 100% right. The main problem last year was Brady. He was off on most games. Likely from distractions from his personal life. Divorce. Going to Robert Kraft parties. Etc and of course his age. I maintain he was C+ quarterback last year. While most of the teams we played had A+ and B + quarterbacks. Only our defense and some lucky plays kept us in the games. This year we have an overall better team including Quarterback. So far Mayfield is a B grade quarterback which is already an improvement