Jason Licht Making The Smart Gamble
June 9th, 2023
Big Bucs gamble.
Again, someone doesn’t know about the salary cap.
Matt Verderame of SI.com thinks the Bucs have enough weapons to be an interesting team — though he added the Bucs cannot and won’t contend.
What keeps the Bucs from being an interesting team now, Verderame types, is that Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht decided his bridge quarterback is Baker Mayfield.
Biggest gamble this offseason: Not making a bigger splash at quarterback
One could argue this was the right decision by Licht and the front office. The Buccaneers need to think long term, and going after a bridge quarterback who starts for the next few years might not be the correct play.
Still, adding Derek Carr would have made Tampa Bay very intriguing in the NFC. Consider if Carr was under center, playing with Chris Godwin and Evans on the outside, along with tight end Cade Otton working the middle. Paired with a respectable defense, that could be the group that wins the NFC South and maybe fights in a playoff game.
Instead, the job falls to Mayfield, who is now on his fourth team in three years. Last year, Mayfield threw for 2,163 yards with 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions, between the Panthers and Rams. Even the most ardent supporters of the Heisman Trophy winner would be hard-pressed to argue he helps Tampa Bay in 2023.
Joe agrees on face value Derek Carr likely does help the Bucs. Unfortunately, when the Bucs have less than $400,000 of cap space, how in the hell were they supposed to afford Carr?
Short of dumping Devin White’s salary and more, no way the Bucs could have afforded Carr. That’s simply not realistic.
Yeah, Joe gets it. Mayfield must have really spit in a lot of national reporters’ faces for them to be so down on him — like Ryan Tannehill makes people forget about Dan Marino.
June 9th, 2023 at 8:03 am
Fourth team in less than a year and a half.
June 9th, 2023 at 8:22 am
You know what they say about opinions! At this point we can all just be hopeful the nay sayers are all full of it! They’ve always trash talked the Bucs.
June 9th, 2023 at 8:30 am
I don’t see Carr as much of an upgrade. Remind me, what exactly has Carr won in his career?
June 9th, 2023 at 8:36 am
The Browns and Panthers are likely last place in their respective divisions this year and the Rams are likely not a playoff team-
Mayfield has alot to prove this year, but these knocks on him regarding last year are not warranted. Any QB needs talent around him to win and a coach that knows how to maximize the talent.
Trask will likely get his chance at some point this year and we’ll see if the pick 6 nightmare re-emerges.
June 9th, 2023 at 8:39 am
The Bucs could have landed Carr but they didn’t want to restructure the contracts of Jenson and Barrett due to age and injuries.
They could have given D. White a new deal and lowered his cap number as well but his play last season did not warrant the type of big money deal he is asking for.
Mike Evans will probably get a new contract here soon – that’s why we haven’t signed our top 3 draft picks yet…
June 9th, 2023 at 8:43 am
When you’re broke because of paying off loans you took out a couple of years ago coming due, you don’t eat steak & lobster.
Why is this so hard to understand?
I am OK with Licht’s balancing act of relevance vs. fixing a bad cap situation.
June 9th, 2023 at 8:48 am
“to be an interesting team”
Sounds like your blind date “has a good personality “
June 9th, 2023 at 8:50 am
@ Cobra
Good analogy… I agree.
Plus – I didn’t want D. Carr in Tampa anyways. Why overpay for a mediocre QB?
I like how Licht has handled this off season. If the Bucs win the NFC South Jason Licht should get GM of the year award.
June 9th, 2023 at 8:56 am
This guys says….though he added the Bucs cannot and won’t contend.
Is his guy a kind of sorcerer? He predicts future?
I would love to have those kinds of powers, I wonder if he is not a billionaire…
June 9th, 2023 at 8:57 am
Cobraboy … Perfectly stated. It’s not so much though about making an intentional decision to dig out of the hole we dug, but rather that we don’t have any choices. Example: we were gonna eat Tom Brady’s $35 mil bill this year unless we re-signed him to yet another year. Once Tom said bye-bye, our hands were tied per salary CAP rules. Same with Gronk; same with Hicks; same with Julio & a number of others. It is what it is.
I see the Bucs working on about a 3-year plan to ‘rebuild’ (although some insist that we’re ‘restocking’?). It’ll take us about that long to actually dig out from ‘the hole’ and train up some of these new guys (like JTS, Hall, McCollum etc?). They’re not entering the league as guys ready-to-go (like LVD, Suh, JPP, Winfield, Wirfs etc were). I just want to see solid progress from year to year.
I personally don’t like Todd Bowles being dual-hatted (very few NFL coaches can really pull that off IMO), but I do like him as a DC & feel confident that he can rebuild a quality defense. He definitely NEEDS a strong OC to survive IMO, and I’m really hoping that Dave Canales is that person. Right now though he’s got an even shorter track record of NFL success as an OC than Kyle Trask does as an NFL QB, so I’m withholding judgment.
June 9th, 2023 at 8:58 am
Carr = Mayfield….not great, but will play ok. However, Mayfield probably has more upside than Carr.
June 9th, 2023 at 8:59 am
I wanted Carr here before we signed Brady but for the money he wanted, i changed my tune.
He’s ok but he’s not worth all that money, especially for a team in cap hell.
June 9th, 2023 at 9:01 am
We would have to have dumped a lot more than Devin White to afford Carr……perhaps not resigning Dean & LVD…..way too much.
I’d rather take a chance with Mayfield….at least we aren’t mortgaging our future on him. If he doesn’t work out…….trade some draft picks for a top QB in the 24 draft……just like all of the other teams are doing.
June 9th, 2023 at 9:10 am
My 2024 season attitude: Expect nothing, and you won’t be disappointed.
Although I wish this team was coming off a Super Bowl and the entire band was kept together, cap be damed…
…
…
well, that’s just not the case.
Book of Rozelle, Chapter 2, verse 12: “The cap giveth, and the cap taketh away.”
Fact is, even while not the optimum situation, this is not a team stocked with McCown at QB, O’Neill at OT, and Ike Hilliard and Alvin Harper at WR, and Swaggy the Tree Humper at DL.
IMO, the single biggest weakness is at HC. Abysmal. Uninspiring. Poor HC track record. Mediocre at best.
June 9th, 2023 at 9:14 am
As the Joe’s have pointed out ad nauseam picking up Mayfield was a smart move by JL. If Mayfield doesn’t suck we should be good at the QB position for the next few years. If he does suck – we will be in a position to draft a high value QB next year.
June 9th, 2023 at 9:20 am
Who just wants to “maybe fight in a playoff game?” Sacrifice to build a contender. We don’t want to be the 1990’s Vikings – perennial playoff team, but usually lost in the wildcard or divisional rounds.
June 9th, 2023 at 9:23 am
I don’t see much difference at all between Mayfield, Tanneill, and Carr
June 9th, 2023 at 9:24 am
@Beej: I do.
The price.
June 9th, 2023 at 9:40 am
I’m a Derek Carr homer and after he shredded the Bucs a few years back I thought he was the next best thing, but that said, didn’t Baker Mayfield beat Derek Carr when he was on his third day with a much inferior Rams team last year? When has Derek Carr actually won anything?
June 9th, 2023 at 9:44 am
Is there really that much of a difference between Carr and Mayfield besides age
June 9th, 2023 at 9:44 am
Joe’s moderation process has many layers and processes. Nothing to do with a colon cleanse or you.–Joe
I’ve read some of the best, most relevant comments on this item that I’ve read in a while.
The salary cap is infuriating, but much like taxes, it’s a necessary evil.
We could not afford Carr without gutting the rest of the team.
Carr is no better than Mayfield, except the price.
Pundits are putas and they can all kiss my @##
June 9th, 2023 at 10:04 am
I have said it 20 times already but to me, they are doing it right. Getting rid of old players, freeing up salary cap moving forward, injecting both lines with youth. Exactly what they had to do. They can draft their franchise QB next year, (even if that means trading away some draft picks over the next couple years to move up and get him).
June 9th, 2023 at 10:08 am
TBBF … ‘I’d rather take a chance with Mayfield….at least we aren’t mortgaging our future on him.’
Personally I’d rather take a chance on Kyle Trask, because he’s got 1 more year on his rookie contract after this (ASSUMING that he & Mayfield play about even this preseason).
If Baker has a good year, how much do you think he’ll be asking for to remain a Buc? I look at Geno Smith as the poster child for QBs who have 1 decent year on a ‘try-before-buy’ then end up with a big salary jump (in Geno’s case, 3-years at $25 mil per year). And for that, Geno led them to a 9-8 record (after starting 6-3, they won 3 games to limp in as a wildcard … barely beating the Rams twice & the Jets once).
June 9th, 2023 at 10:18 am
The Carr is so much better than Mayfield argument is hilarious.
When you actually compare the two QBs, they have nearly identical numbers. So I look at as the Bucs get the same level of QB play from Mayfield that they would have gotten from Carr at a fraction of the cost. Good job Licht.
June 9th, 2023 at 10:23 am
The hell with Mayfield. Nothing to gain by playing him. Start Trask. Everything to gain by playing him. Look at Joe’s reports on the OTAs. Trask looked good.
1) Despite your misdirection, Joe does not compile or post stats of an OTA practice, only select highlights, lowlights and things of note during the flag football action. At times, spring plays aren’t even visible because of where the roster of 90 or so players plus coaches is standing compared to where media is permitted. Also, there are many plays that should be blown dead (as in the pass rush gives up so as not to touch the QB), so that’s another gray area.
2) Lastly, the majority of OTA practices are closed to media. So it’s foolish to craft any firm opinion when you’re seeing a small percentage of the action, though Joe realizes some in the media love to make firm assertions off spring work. Thankfully, training camp practices are open — and in pads, and there’s lots of video to study afterwards.–Joe
June 9th, 2023 at 10:26 am
The Bucs have the best WR duo in the division by a wide margin.
The best offensive lineman in Wirfs… that’s one out of five… but a healthy Jensen, a solid starter in Filer, and two mostly unknowns for the other 2/5 and we aren’t talking a bad line here.
Vea is the best DL in the division… our DL has the potential to be the best with Hall hopefully playing to potential, Kancey showing he’s a force, Gaines being a solid piece. Barrett, if healthy is always a handful. JTS and the others have loads of potential.
Two best LBs in David and White.
Best CB duo in the division.
Best safety in the division in Winfield.
All Mayfield has to do is be average and we win the division… for the record, Brady wasn’t average last season. His QB rating was 18th in the league… his QBR was 18th as well, one spot behind Justin Fields. Don’t give me the stupid stats on his empty yards and completions and attempts. He threw more than any QB in the league last season and was still one of the least productive. His yards per attempt ranked 30th and his yards per completion was 32nd. We had the 3rd ranked offense in the league in 2019 under TOM (Turn Over Machine) Winston. If Mayfield can come in and be the same Mayfield he was with the Browns in 2020… we’ll be good and win 10+ games.
June 9th, 2023 at 10:28 am
David carr is trash. This dude hasn’t won sh**. Mayfield at 8 million vs carr at 100 million I would take mayfield all day everyday.
June 9th, 2023 at 10:31 am
Sports writers don’t let the facts/reality get in the way of their agenda or narrative.
We’ll find out this season if we have a good team and coaching staff.
June 9th, 2023 at 10:37 am
White will have to play here. Mayfield will be a bum. Trask should start to get experience for next year with a new coach. Bowles is just a joke. A bad joke.
June 9th, 2023 at 10:39 am
It was smart not to take Carr,( have We really already forgotten the price We had to pay by mortgaging our future for temporary gain?) , So , are we really going to move backwards by letting a failed Quarterback ( when you are on your fourth team in two years You have failed), or move forward by letting the guy you drafted for the position , finally play at the start of the season , go through the inevitable adjustments for a few games and grow each week , or let the failed Quarterback play in those first few games before finally reaching an epiphany that he isn’t the guy and then start the guy you should have started in the first place but now you are later in the season and have wasted time and resources to get to the same place you should have been at a month earlier.
June 9th, 2023 at 10:49 am
@Joe
blah, blah, blah.
June 9th, 2023 at 10:59 am
He has looked better. Not sure “good” is accurate. Best practice (this spring) Joe saw he didn’t appear to make any mistakes, which is progress. But there were no “wow” throws (very few from Mayfield).
June 9th, 2023 at 11:08 am
I wonder what Joe Biden thinks of Baker Mayfield…
June 9th, 2023 at 11:09 am
Who are the elite QBs in the NFC?
Mr. Irrelevant in San Fran?
Jalen Hurts is going to the Hall of Fame after one season?
Kirk Cousins’ contract?
Goff in Everyone Should Love the Lions Because Vegas Says So?
Dak in This Is the Year Again Dallas?
The Bucs will be the middle of mediocre this season. Decent D. Offensive that will have ups and downs. But that’s almost every team in the NFC, and certainly the entire NFC South.
June 9th, 2023 at 11:11 am
Used Carr is fool’s gold and about as clutch as Bill Capece ( ancient reference ).
I’m glad the Saints signed him as they are my least favorite team in the NFL.
June 9th, 2023 at 11:25 am
Son of Trask go wax your surfboard. Trask is not in pads and neither QB IS DOING ANTHING GREAT. THEY ARE NOT BEING CHALLENGED!!
It is June not fully padded training camp. We will see what your hero does then and in games.
June 9th, 2023 at 11:44 am
Joe Says: “Not sure ‘good’ is accurate.”
1) Despite your deleted misdirection, Joe does not compile or post stats of an OTA practice, only select highlights, lowlights and things of note during the flag football action. At times, spring plays aren’t even visible because of where the roster of 90 or so players plus coaches is standing compared to where media is permitted. Also, there are many plays that should be blown dead (as in the pass rush gives up so as not to touch the QB), so that’s another gray area.
2) Lastly, the majority of OTA practices are closed to media. So it’s foolish to craft any firm opinion when you’re seeing a small percentage of the action, though Joe realizes some in the media love to make firm assertions off spring work. Thankfully, training camp practices are open — and in pads, and there’s lots of video to study afterwards.–Joe
June 9th, 2023 at 12:04 pm
Wow. Looking forward to when Trask has a bad practice this summer and Joe reports on it ad nauseam and lets all the haters draw all the conclusions they want from Joe’s report. SOP.
June 9th, 2023 at 12:27 pm
Carr is an upgrade over Mayfield, but less mobile. Both gotta be better than Trask, who couldn’t beat out Ryan Griffin on the depth chart. That was a horrible 2nd round pick. We needed depth not a 4th string QB. For as many good players Licht drafted, he sure has swung and missed A LOT (Hargreaves, Trask, Aguayo, Gay, fuc*in aye might be the only GM ever to draft 2 kickers and a punter)… Moving Wirfs to LT is a mistake imo, a very big one. We’re gonna miss Donovan Smith. Devin White wants overpaid, seemingly on athletic ability alone. Mike Evans – love the guy and the player – but he’s never been polished enough to be a top 5 WR in the league. Struggles with drops and YAC, and his route tree is limited in comparison to elite WR. Mike is very good, but elite he is not. Still the most productive WR in Bucs history by a long shot. Godwin is like T.O. but with a much better attitude. He’s been our best WR for years now. I still think we’ll compete for the NFC south title. Just need to stay healthy and hope this Caneles OC is the real deal.
June 9th, 2023 at 12:35 pm
NOT CARR, RODGERS
If Licht was going after a big name, high priced QB, it would have been Rodgers. He’s the only big name that could have followed TB12 and had success.
Carr is Jameis Winston 2.0 (high production, no wins, lots of INTs, minus off-field BS).
June 9th, 2023 at 1:03 pm
This just in…none of the talking heads… or you… or me have a damn clue. The projections year after year are so off base its hilarious. Keep guessing boys…you wont be right lol….take your girl out to dinner…and stop this geek sh**.
June 9th, 2023 at 1:12 pm
To b fair, Mayfield never had a good supporting cast. You can have a great movie star in a movie, but if the other actors suck, the movie is going to suck..
June 9th, 2023 at 1:18 pm
Carr getting paid for stats. Like Brady did last year. GO BUCS!
June 9th, 2023 at 1:26 pm
I would have gone after Ryan until the Cap situation gets straightened out, he is still better either Carr or Mayfield. At this point it should be an interesting season to see if Mayfield does better than Carr. Jason is either going to be an evil genius or a total dunce this season.
June 9th, 2023 at 1:40 pm
“Hodad Says:
June 9th, 2023 at 8:30 am
I don’t see Carr as much of an upgrade. Remind me, what exactly has Carr won in his career?”
NFC South. This year.
June 9th, 2023 at 1:41 pm
@Buc4evr
I agree Ryan is better than Mayfield. Better than Carr? Not even close. And I like Ryan.
(Unless you mean Matt Ryan…I suppose he and Carr MIGHT be close)
June 9th, 2023 at 1:49 pm
SlyPirate Says:
“Carr is Jameis Winston 2.0 (high production, no wins, lots of INTs, minus off-field BS).”
Not true, buddy. Carr has never had more than 14 picks in a season, and he’s only done that twice. He’s only gone below 86.3 QBR once in his career…his rookie year. 6 out of 9 years, he was above 90 QBR.
His issue was fumbles…and that was a result of his offensive line not protecting him. Every year he hah 10+ fumbles, the QB hits and sacks were higher as well.
He’d have done well behind a solid OL…and Licht knows how to build one.
But…price is everything this year.
June 9th, 2023 at 2:20 pm
HC Grover Says:
June 9th, 2023 at 10:37 am
White will have to play here. Mayfield will be a bum. Trask should start to get experience for next year with a new coach. Bowles is just a joke. A bad joke.
^^^^^^^
Thank you Little Miss Sunshine for brightening our day. Now go follow a different team, one that you’ll have something good to say about.
June 9th, 2023 at 2:31 pm
Big Red Says:
June 9th, 2023 at 12:27 pm
Carr is an upgrade over Mayfield, but less mobile. Both gotta be better than Trask, who couldn’t beat out Ryan Griffin on the depth chart. That was a horrible 2nd round pick.
Lots of maybe’s here. How much of Carr did you watch last season. In the 10 games to start the season, he was 3 and 10 and those 3 wins were 2 against Denver and 1 against Houston. Carr might have had one of the worst offensive coaches in the league, along with Baker Mayfield in Carolina and Byron Leftwich in Tampa. So, who knows.
Again, with Leftwich teaching or responsible for Trasks growth, who really knows how solid he can be. Really, just glad we let go Leftwich.
June 9th, 2023 at 2:34 pm
I don’t like Mayfield, I don’t think he’s any good — and that’s back up by the FACT he’s been the worst QB in football for the last 2-years.
But, even saying that, I’d rather have Mayfield here over Carr. Yes, Carr is a better QB, but he’s not a good QB, and yet he’s paid like a great QB – and that kills your team. Mayfield at least should be gone by next year and the Bucs won’t have $50m in dead cap space from a bad Carr deal.
June 9th, 2023 at 2:37 pm
@Bonzai
You quoted Carr’s passer rating not his QBR.
QBR is the stat used by ESPN. To me it is not as accurate as passer rating. It over rates running quarterbacks.
Among active quarterbacks, Carr’s passer rating is 17th at 91.8 Pretty solid.
Jameis Winston passer rating is 87.5.
Baker Mayfields passer rating is 86.5.
June 9th, 2023 at 3:26 pm
Baker Mayfeild, is a legend…… “in his own mind”
June 9th, 2023 at 3:35 pm
Wanna know how good Baker Mayfield is?
Just listen to him. He’ll tell you.
June 9th, 2023 at 7:24 pm
I’ll take baker over Carr more upside been on a crap ton of bad offenses. Didn’t play bad under the same system the bucs are installing
June 9th, 2023 at 7:49 pm
I think Baker Mayfield will surprise everyone and turn out to be a heck of a QB!
June 9th, 2023 at 9:42 pm
geno711 Says:
June 9th, 2023 at 2:37 pm
@Bonzai
You quoted Carr’s passer rating not his QBR.
QBR is the stat used by ESPN. To me it is not as accurate as passer rating.
————-
QBR takes into account frauds like Carr, who will always look to boost his completition percentage over making a good play. If it’s 3rd and 13, you’ll see Carr checking it down to his RB for 3 yards all the time – and the old QB rating system rewards that. QBR does not. Also if Winston throws an INT on a hail mary before half time, the old QB rating dings him the same as if he threw a INT in a tied game in the 4th quarter, QBR does not.
The old QB rating system has been broken since the west coast offense started inflating the QB numbers long ago – and that’s the entire reason QBR was created, and why stat heads, such as myself, actually find it to be a useful number. I have not noticed any issues with it inflating running QBs numbers, but if that’s a big deal, then simple solution, don’t directly compare running QBs vs non-running QBs.
June 10th, 2023 at 2:22 am
Totally agree Joe
Jason’s hands have been tied behind his back this off-season.
He has done a hell of a job considering the constraints he has had.
Maybefield still has the possibility to prove the NFL gurus wrong and make Licht look like GM of the year.
Gamble? It was the only call he could make.
June 10th, 2023 at 8:26 am
Unfortunately or pour season will have more to do with Bowles and not Mayfield or Trask just playing the waiting game to see whos the new head coach and starting Qb next year
June 10th, 2023 at 6:05 pm
Gamble is a flawed word to describe Licht’s actions.
You have to have chips to gamble, and the Bucs have no chips.
June 10th, 2023 at 8:04 pm
Garner Minshew > Baker Mayfield
June 10th, 2023 at 10:27 pm
It’s all good