Hit Rate Of First Round Draft Picks Getting Second Contracts With Original Team
May 3rd, 2023
Bucs GM Jason Licht.
Yesterday was the deadline when teams had to choose whether to pull the trigger on a fifth-year option for players entering their fourth season in the league, or to allow the player to test free agency next March if a contract extension isn’t signed.
It was a no-brainer of no-brainers that Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht chose to pick up Tristan Wirf’s fifth-year option. Duh.
Over at BSPN, a producer by the name of Paul Hembo (@PaulHembo) did the research on hit rates of first-round picks making it to a second contract with the teams that drafted them.
The research covers a 10-season stretch from 2009-2018.
What surprises Joe here are linebackers had just about the worst hit rate of getting a second contract, just 6 out of 23 players.
Running back is also interesting. Folks like to say never draft a running back in the first round because it is terrible value. The chart below backs that up. Just five first-round running backs from 2009-2018 got second contracts.
Centers drafted in the first round seem to be a slam dunk for a second contract is surprising. Only once missed a second contract in the timeframe.
So what does this mean in the big picture? At least for a 10-season span, 60 percent of dudes drafted in the first round busted out with their original team. Sixty percent!
What did the Bucs do with their first-round picks from 2009-2018? Right at the league average, 4 hits (Gerald McCoy, Doug Martin, Mike Evans and Vita Vea) in 10, 40 percent.
Or in other words, 60 percent bust rate, just like the league average.
This graphic was published before Lamar Jackson signed his second contract with the Crows. So the QB hit rate should be 12 of 29 for 40 percent. (Graphic courtesy of @PaulHembo, ESPN.)
May 3rd, 2023 at 4:39 am
Interesting. This is why I think drafting RBs in the first round IS good value. Who cares about getting a first round pick to a second contract? Unless you’re talking QB, or LT using a first round pick for four, to five years on the cheap makes more sense then giving the player big money when his skills are declining. You never draft a RB thinking you’re going to resign them. That’s why Licht is in no hurry to give White big money. Look at the bust rate for LBs.
May 3rd, 2023 at 4:45 am
“… linebackers had just about the worst hit rate of getting a second contract, just 6 out of 23 players…” Hello Diva White.
May 3rd, 2023 at 5:56 am
So I hate drafting RBs in round 1… generally, but if the guy is elite and is available the last half of round 1, you get him for that 5th year option. It’s usually around year five that RBs start to show their age.
May 3rd, 2023 at 6:25 am
I WOULD HAVE LOVED FOR THE BUC’S TO BE ABLE TO DRAFT BIJAN ROBINSON IN 1ST ROUND, EVEN IF WE ONLY HAD HIM FOR 4 YEARS (PLUS THE 5TH YR OPTION..HE’S GOING TO BE A FRANCHISE PLAYER( IF HE STAYS HEALTHY) HE’S THAT GOOD !..BUT, WE DID THE SMART THING & DRAFTED MORE FOR NEED( WHICH, WITH OUR SALARY CAP SITUATION WAS THE BEST WAY TO GO )WE JUST HAD TOO MANY HOLES TO FILL AT KEY POSITIONS TO BET THE HOUSEON AN EXCEPTIONAL RUNNING BACK OR QUARTERBACK AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME..WE MADE THE RIGHT CHOICES TO STAY COMPETITIVE THIS YEAR & HAVE A VERY GOOD SHOT AT REPEATING AS NFC SOUTH CHAMPIONS & GOING BACK TO THE PLAYOFFS BASED ON OUR CURRENT ROSTER NOW THAT THE DRAFT HAS BEEN COMPLEATED…GO BUC’S ! ! !
May 3rd, 2023 at 6:42 am
Speaking of second contracts, when the new head coach is hired next year. That will be the 5th head coach during Licht’s 10 year tenure.
May 3rd, 2023 at 7:15 am
Same 40 percent bust rate for first round QBs. Jaymiss anyone?
May 3rd, 2023 at 7:40 am
I’m pretty sure Doug Martin was not a first rounder. And it seems like Jameis did get his fifth year picked up when Arians came in, but didn’t get more than that. I could be wrong though.
May 3rd, 2023 at 7:44 am
Just looked it up. I stand corrected. Next time I’ll confirm before opening my mouth. 😅
May 3rd, 2023 at 7:47 am
Idahobucfan,
Doug Martin was just barely in the first rd, as we traded back in to pick 32 I believe, which was the last selection in that rd. We drafted Barron with our first pick, and we all know how that went, smh. Dougie gave us a couple good years though.
May 3rd, 2023 at 8:37 am
I think if u have a good line it makes sense to draft a back
High.
I think our line was the worst run offense in the history of the nfl last year if u go on stats.
This was a really good draft class for o lineman which explains why we got one…..
May 3rd, 2023 at 8:53 am
That’s a great article Joe
May 3rd, 2023 at 8:54 am
I noticed that Kansas City does not pickup 5th year options very easily.
May 3rd, 2023 at 8:59 am
Jason Licht is a below .500 draft picker and thus builds a franchise that is below 500 and that is what it will always be, with Licht at the helm. He didnt draft Wirfs as much as Wirfs fell in the bucs lap; He drafted Evans and Vea with 2 of his picks and they are all time bucs along with wirfs. Lichts first round picks are abysmal, from Hargreaves to Hall, the previous 2 first rounders are busts from JTS and Hall, you cannot build a winning franchise with this many whiffs, so 1pm games in the hot Florida sun is what the future is looking like for the bucs. Lichts saving grace is that Dominick and Jon Gruden were so flipping bad to destroy the bucs that Licht looks passable as a NFL GM
May 3rd, 2023 at 9:10 am
Great article and stat. It shows how important the the key positions are for the oline. Maybe we should have traded up for a top tackle…..
May 3rd, 2023 at 9:22 am
“He didnt draft Wirfs as much as Wirfs fell in the bucs lap”
lol he traded up for Wirfs. At least get the facts right if you’re going to bash. He fell into his trade?
His biggest busts are VHIII, Winston, & Howard. But none were reaches according to any draft gurus back then. And Howard being a bust is way more due to injury than anything else IMO. He was a top 5-10 player on most draft boards and was a weapon for us at least before the injury.
We also know Koetter was really eyeing Howard. Man I’d love to be able to see all the convos in every draft room and who really pushed what decisions.
May 3rd, 2023 at 9:28 am
Hello DW
I hope his agent reads and explains this to him
May 3rd, 2023 at 9:55 am
In 2011 the NFL tired of getting blackmailed by college kids with great resumes but no actual NFL experience were getting HUGE contract based totally on risky perceived value. It was a bad deal for the owners and so some degree to vets who had already proven their value.
But one of the unintended? consequences was that sometimes rookies are actually worth those $$$ and in fact begin quickly playing better than veterans making MUCH more than the rookies.
Now by the end of the 5 years guys may have proven themselves but they must compete against a super talented rookie that earns a fraction of what they want to resign after the rookie contract.
Put QB aside..a special weird position…but otherwise what are the chances of finding a pretty good player in the draft at a fraction of the money due to a guy in his 6th season? Sometimes it’s a tough call!
May 3rd, 2023 at 10:07 am
Joe, nice article on outline what a crap shoot it is for players taken in the 1st round. The NFL can only draft players based upon what systems that colleges are running. All these quarterbacks that are never over center or have never tried 5 or 7 step drops. Some have had consistently over 3 seconds to throw which will never happen in the NFL.
Then you get corner backs who never ever in college had to understand any zone coverage concepts. Name a team in the NFL that does not utilize a zone coverage scheme on a large percentage of plays.
That is even harder for a college linebacker, many of whom rarely dropped into coverage. Devin White. A stud from college and in certain aspects of his pro game. He did not transition to the pass coverage game that well, while LaVonte David on the other hand, has stayed in the league so long because of his understanding of his coverage assignments.
May 3rd, 2023 at 10:14 am
@Dusthty Rhothdes
My perspective is the NFL is one of the most competitive fields there is in the world, and the Bucs recently won it all. Can’t win just because of a quarterback, or a coach.
Need a large set of good players, a large set of good coaches, and a darn strong front office to win a Super Bowl.
Personally sad to see the trolls already back on this site after such great recent success.
They all tend to rewrite history to suggest somehow it was:
1. Just Gronk and AB that won us the Super Bowl (Oneilbuc)
or
2. Only Brady in that he somehow instituted an offense all by himself (ridiculous)
or
3. That we only won because other teams were at their worst form (equally ridiculous)
You may not like Licht. Maybe he is the problem. I tend to think he is more on the solution side of things.
For me, glad we got rid of BL because once Arians left, he was exposed on his own.
Not sure that Bowles knows how to be anything other than a DC.
But certainly, I am willing to give him some chance because between Brady, Leftwich, and that OL last year, that offense was more the pathetic than the defense. But clearly at this point, think Bowles may be more a problem than Licht.
Agree to disagree on Licht being the problem.
May 3rd, 2023 at 10:14 am
wirfs fell to the bucs even though we had to trade up to get him.
he was the fourth tackle of the top 4 and the only one left, if we wanted him we got lucky that the other three were chosen ahead of him, if we just needed a tackle (so he wasn’t our choice-but the only top tackle left) we got even luckier.
May 3rd, 2023 at 10:25 am
That’s why I don’t understand why people get so mad when their team picks someone and they think they should have picked someone else… It’s basically a 50-50 shot.
That says 40% but I would imagine some guys just aren’t re-signed with the same team because of the cap.
May 3rd, 2023 at 11:16 am
There are players that are happy to have “fallen “ into the top of the second round so that they can begin their Big NFL money contract .
As the poster up thread said, not that long ago owners were getting screwed signing rookies to media hype and college production contracts and the players never lived up to in NFL production.
Of course there could be a algorithm tracking above average production in players initial NFL contract, but that door could swing both ways.
Nothing is perfect, except my opinions 😇
Players and owners are doing just fine!
Remember rookies
It’s not how much you make
It’s how much you keep
May 3rd, 2023 at 12:08 pm
Jimm… seems like a lot of revisionist history by you IMO.
The truth of the matter was all the fan experts wanted us to pick an offensive tackle in 2019. Remember, we took none. Those fans suggested that we should have taken Jonah Williams (bust) or Jawaan Taylor (bust).
There were others on this site saying in 2020 to trade down and get another pick that year.
Others saying take Austin Jackson or Isiah Wilson as tackles a little later. Look at the archives here.
In 2020 would Licht have been even luckier if we had picked Justin Jefferson because I don’t remember anyone on this site suggesting that we should have taken Jefferson.
In the 2nd round, there were about 10,000 fans on this site griping about us picking Antoine Winfield. They wanted Akers or Dobbins at running back that year.
There are plenty of people saying this year that Jalen Carter was the best defensive player in the draft. Did Philadelphia just get lucky getting him at 9?
If it works out, Philly should get credit, IMO.
May 3rd, 2023 at 1:16 pm
Its not a true 60% bust rate for 1st rounders.
There are times when a player is talented and “belongs” in the NFL – but winds up not re-signing with the team that drafted him for varying reasons….
Devin White might just be one of those examples. He’s obviously not a “bust” in the general sense. He’s a talented player and will likely have a long NFL career – everyone knows that.
But he hasn’t lived up to the expectations in Tampa Bay of being a #5 overall pick either. And now he’s creating issues for the team by squaking publicly that he wants to be paid huge $ NOW – when he hasn’t earned that right.
Seems unlikely that White and the Bucs are ever going to see eye to eye on him being worth $20M per year – unless he shuts his mouth – plays all 17 games this year and turns into Ray Lewis…
May 3rd, 2023 at 5:02 pm
So, by the numbers…The FO had a 5% better chance of finding a QB worth a 2nd contract than the DT they took at #19….Got it!
May 3rd, 2023 at 5:42 pm
Catcard202.
There were no quarterbacks taken at 20 thru 31 in the NFL draft this year. So, your analogy really does not apply at all in this circumstance. But if you have a position that Levis, or Hooker will be a stud, just say so.
May 4th, 2023 at 3:59 pm
A little late to this forum, but would like to weigh in on J. Winston pick. There are plenty of Jameis haters who would claim he was a bad/wasted pick.
When you don’t have a QB (and you usually don’t if you’re picking first) you have to take one. Winston did turn out to be the best QB of that class. It was just a bad class for QB’s. And not taking a QB at the top would have immediately gotten Licht fired.