Statheads Not On Board With Baker Mayfield
April 25th, 2023
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield.
Joe’s a big fan of handicapper turned stathead Warren Sharp and his gang at Sharp Football Analysis. But let’s be real, even the smartest guys lose at least 30 percent of the time in football wagering.
For example, Joe remembers how Sharp used to wail on Twitter in 2020 about how the Bucs almost always run on first downs. Sharp wasn’t wrong but guess what? The Bucs won the Super Bowl.
So Sharp and his gang did a breakdown recently on Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield. Sharp assumes Mayfield will start because, well, Mayfield has won a playoff game and Trask’s NFL resume is a grand total of nine passes and three completions.
Sharp and his crew aren’t feeling what the Bucs are selling on Mayfield.
In 2022 with the Panthers and Rams, Mayfield was 31st among 33 qualifying passers in expected points added per dropback (-0.16), 30th in success rate (35.6%), and 29th in yards per pass attempt (6.5 Y/A).
If looking for a silver lining, at least Mayfield will be throwing to multiple viable wide receivers. All he had in 2022 was D.J. Moore for his stint with the Panthers before taking over a Los Angeles offense down Cooper Kupp.
Mayfield wasn’t awful with the Ramx. He showed flashes of why he was a No. 1 overall pick by the Browns.
As Joe points out about Mayfield, and for some odd reason it triggers readers, the Rams wanted to keep him. Baltimore wanted to sign him. Did John Harbaugh and Sean McVay suddenly turn stupid overnight?
Hey, if Mayfield works out, the Bucs have their quarterback for maybe the next five years. If Mayfield shats the bed, perhaps the Bucs go out and get Michael Penix or Quinn Ewers next year.
Great fun ahead at the brand new Big Storm taproom in the heart of Ybor City!
Upstairs (2nd level) in Centro Ybor with public parking all around. It’s big, bold and beautiful.
…Courtesy of Florida’s Elite Restoration, you can win $500 in our “Pick The Pick” contest, which was a huge hit at the 2021 NFL Draft party, plus another $500 in an additional contest. Hang with great Bucs fans, Ira Kaufman and Florida’s best craft beer, cocktails and excellent food.
April 25th, 2023 at 11:08 am
Maytrask matters not. This year is The Big Ugly. Time to build the O and D lines with Big Beef for next year. I hope we draft all linemen.
April 25th, 2023 at 11:08 am
Quinn Ewers has to beat Arch Manning out for starting QB at Texas this summer lol the odds aren’t with him
April 25th, 2023 at 11:18 am
Beef, beef and more beef this year
Build the lines
Reenforce the trenches as Vince Lombardi used to do
April 25th, 2023 at 11:28 am
Through Spring practices, it appears Ewers has already beaten out Lord Manning for starting Texas QB.
April 25th, 2023 at 11:33 am
Mayfield = 60% losing record.
60%.
I mean…if that’s improvement…
April 25th, 2023 at 11:34 am
Trenches all the way…I don’t care if we win or lose, so long as we strike gold on the trenches.
Although…I hope Trask will turn out well. If anyone would have a chip, it should be him.
April 25th, 2023 at 11:35 am
Agreed but it’s still early Scotty there’s also Maalik Murphy who looked as good as Ewers and better than Manning, but that’s going to be at least a 2 QB race for the Longhorns over the summer which may come down to the wire. Don’t envy Sarkisian having to be the decision maker in that process.
April 25th, 2023 at 11:37 am
Hurts just got over $250m deal. Sheesh. QBs should not count against caps.
April 25th, 2023 at 11:38 am
All of the speculation is about to end. Come on, Jason. We need a solid draft starting with an OT with long arms, not T-Rex-like.
April 25th, 2023 at 11:40 am
Build it and they will come. GM Licht, you’ve got work to do.
April 25th, 2023 at 11:45 am
Stats in no way tell the story of what ALL22 shows of Mayfield and the Panther’s offensive dysfunction under MacAdoo and Rhule.
I’d take nothing from the ’22 season as indicative of what Mayfield will do, good or bad, in TB.
April 25th, 2023 at 11:47 am
“Jason Licht passes on Hooker for Penix.”
April 25th, 2023 at 11:49 am
Bonz is right. Either don’t count QB against the cap or use a damper, or something.
April 25th, 2023 at 11:54 am
I think we will draft a later round QB. We have looked at a few
April 25th, 2023 at 11:56 am
One of our QBs will get us a winning season. Or not. Next year is a better chance to draft a good QB.
April 25th, 2023 at 11:56 am
Mayfield was awful and is awful, hell Mayfield might be a worse version of Jaboo. I don’t get why Joe keeps on making excuses for this bust acting as if you never seen a 1st round QB heisman winner that won an NFL playoff game be a bust before, cough “Tebow”.
April 25th, 2023 at 12:00 pm
We shall see.
April 25th, 2023 at 12:09 pm
you mean someone else see the obvious!
April 25th, 2023 at 12:12 pm
Joe, you are way off on “top” sports bettors. Nobody hits 70 per cent. 56 per cent is considers very good. Don’t believe the hype.
April 25th, 2023 at 12:15 pm
I’m with you Bojim..we need all our draft picks and getting a QB this year to seat on the bench is not a good idea. Specially when there’s only about 2 “good” QB on this draft whom not gonna be there at #19. IMHO…we should ride with Traskfield and wait for next year. If we suck this season, you know Bowles is not gone be here next year. The new HC will want to get his QB and there will be better QBs in next year draft.
April 25th, 2023 at 12:20 pm
Baker isnt the savior, but he comes really cheap, and ME13 has carried bigger stiffs. There are many questions and holes on this team, and although QB is the biggest one, I dont feel many of the fans will looking to pin the season’s failures or successes on Baker or Trask. Honestly, if this is the season that we have to pay the piper and pay our dues, I would be hard pressed to name another that we still had a chance to compete for the division.
April 25th, 2023 at 12:20 pm
I was in Cleveland for a wedding last summer. The football fans I spoke to liked Baler, thought the organization was a cluster hump and that they would have ruined Mahomes there, BUT – and this is key – they thought that his prancing around on all those commercials was poor form, particularly after his and the team’s play went south. Maybe he has matured. I’m cheering for the guy.
April 25th, 2023 at 12:27 pm
Maybefield is a bust just like Jaboo. Idk why Joe want the fans to believe otherwise by making excuses such as his heisman trophy, 1st round pedigree and lone playoff win as if we never seen a bust with similar achievements before, cough “Tebow” cough!
Maybefield played bad last year and that’s why he was only offered backup gigs before the Bucs came up knocking. He is a bust and nothing more!
April 25th, 2023 at 12:34 pm
Carolina lost before he got there, and they lost after he left, as did Cleveland. It’s fair to say the offensive system they had there did not suit him
April 25th, 2023 at 12:45 pm
So Brady had the lowest yards per attempt since 2002 last year and he had only 25 TD passes which was the 5th lowest of his career.
The running game was the worst in the NFL.
2 starting OLinemen have been sent packing since the end of last season- and an all pro tackle is learning to switch sides this off season.
Yet, these geniuses think the biggest need is QB….smh
April 25th, 2023 at 1:14 pm
Same ole Bucs fans. We’re like that one friend who is willing to date the fat girl. Its don’t take much to get us excited.
Baker Mayfield is a bum. Makes just enough splash plays to keep you interested, but at the end of the day only nets you 190 yard passing. That does not consistently win football games in the NFL.
April 25th, 2023 at 1:23 pm
Mayfield is not going to start so what difference does it make?
April 25th, 2023 at 1:24 pm
No quarterbacks this year fill our needs with the eight or so picks. Hopefully next after the 🐸 is gone we will get an offensive minded coach as we did with Bruce and draft a quarterback.
April 25th, 2023 at 1:25 pm
Never bin a baker fan. Wasn’t a Brady fan either but that changed real quick lol. Not really a trask fan only like what he did his last year with the gators. Personally I don’t think this is a QB competition at all. Bowles wants baker to start. He thinks he has the best shot at saving his job with him n why wouldn’t he. Baker has actual NFL experience and has 1 playoff win. That’s a lot more than trask. We took trask in the 2nd rd that’s the only reason why I want him to get a legit shot playing with the starters just to see what we have in him. Maybe we will get to see maybe we won’t. Hoping the Bucs beef up both lines big time this year n fill other holes let’s go Bucs
April 25th, 2023 at 1:30 pm
Goatfarmer, or… pay them less money. When they get that kind of money some of the surrounding quality players slowly mow on to other teams.
April 25th, 2023 at 1:31 pm
Move on lol
April 25th, 2023 at 1:34 pm
If JL scores in the draft, the run game and passing game should improve with BM. How could it not?
April 25th, 2023 at 1:34 pm
I think Mayfly will start the season, but Trask will finish it.
Trask will also double the wins of Mayfly, if Mayfly is pulled before he gets to 20 interceptions.
Trask will make some mistakes, but will do enough to be the 2024 starter. That is when we will see how our new OC and Trask will fly.
Might need a new QB in 2025, but I hope not. Trask looked like he was one of the few NFL ready QBs while in college, but that could be moot if he isn’t smart.
April 25th, 2023 at 1:36 pm
Panthers:
1-4 with Baker 276 ypg
6-6 without Baker 320 ypg
5-3 in their last 8 games – 325 ypg
They got better without Baker – a lot better.
April 25th, 2023 at 1:49 pm
Exactly Mike s. Lol all these baker fanboys are gonna see he’s a scrub
April 25th, 2023 at 1:54 pm
Shore up the trenches.
Then the Bucs can evaluate what they do with the skill positions moving forward.
April 25th, 2023 at 3:51 pm
Mike S – do you have contact info for the fat girls? Asking for a friend….
April 25th, 2023 at 5:16 pm
Mike S Says:
April 25th, 2023 at 1:36 pm
Panthers:
1-4 with Baker 276 ypg
6-6 without Baker 320 ypg
5-3 in their last 8 games – 325 ypg
They got better without Baker – a lot better.
Well…. besides those games……
April 25th, 2023 at 6:45 pm
Humored by the stat analysis here — presented by experts who don’t really grasp the history of this baller. Baker broke out in ’20, then almost beat KC again game one in ’21, but then the shoulder injury in game two and further hobbled with other injury as the season progressed. Play-calling regressed to run twice, then face the rush on 3rd… fatal. Cleveland’s ’22 season started with the Watson debacle and ended predictably.
Carolina was a basket case. LA was severely wounded, but still finished with some success on the field. Did McVey wish that Baker would hang? Oh, yeah.
If the Bucs put their early draft focus on OL the Bucs faithful will be positively surprised by the resulting outcome in December.
Oh — and the Progressive commercials. Understand that the entire series was produced before hand and all at the same time during off-season. This didn’t interfere with Baker’s focus on winning during the season. And, the series were all humorous, self-deprecating Baker roles (Baker cleans house?). Big concern? Really??
April 25th, 2023 at 8:03 pm
Joe,
Stop advertising Baker to the fans. The future starts with Trask and future drafts. Move on. The teams you mentioned they all were interested in Baker as the back up not a starter and he didn’t want it.
April 25th, 2023 at 8:37 pm
@Ex-Browns
Agree with your post completely! Also agree with the incredible targets the Bucs have and a decent stable of RB’s if IF the Bucs get the OL right Mayfield can succeed.
April 25th, 2023 at 8:37 pm
Go dangle a 6th round pick at the Jets in exchange for Zack Wilson, see if they’ll take it.
And for those who think Wilson sucks – well, he has, but he’s been better than Mayfield over the last two years.
Mayfield, QBR the last two years, 35.1, 24.5
Wilson, QBR the last two years, 28.2, 36.5
Wilson has actually improved over the last two years, while Mayfield has gotten worse, and has literally been the worst QB in the NFL over the last 2 seasons. I have no idea why anyone would think Mayfield will do well. We can HOPE he does well, but I certainly wouldn’t expect it.
April 25th, 2023 at 9:41 pm
Not sure if you understand what advertising is. It means someone is giving you cash in turn for ad space in/on a publication. Joe hasn’t taken a nickel from anyone wanting such a thing.
April 25th, 2023 at 10:17 pm
Dorian Thompson-Robinson in the 6th round.
April 25th, 2023 at 11:32 pm
Joes, as you know, some of your readers aren’t operating their elevators to all floors.
April 26th, 2023 at 10:08 am
Mike S: your stats are correct, but unless you WATCHED the Panthers last season, those stats are meaningless. Mayfield is not, and is never gonna be Tom Brady, or any other classic drop back, hang in the pocket passer. That’s not his strength nor is it wise to try to make him do that.
Cleveland tried that in 2019, and again in 2021 – he was awful, and injured most of 2021. But in 2020, they played to his strengths (play action, lots of pre-snap motion, running game first) and he led them to the playoffs and a playoff win. And that was with prima-donna OBJ as a WR – who was NEVER in the right place at the right time. (Don’t get me started on him)
In Carolina, no play action (despite having a great back to do so), no pre-snap motion, and unbalanced pass/run selection. And Mayfield stank, just as I would have expected. With the Rams, they played to his strengths, and he pulled a miracle the first week, and was actually pretty good overall, despite them not having ANY of their first team WR/TE by the time he got there.
IF Canales tailors the offense to him, he can be a winner… again, not Tom Brady, but definitely can take a decent team far. IF not, well, tank city.
Someone will eventually figure out that if you run the right offense, he can be pretty good.
Cleveland would have screwed up Mahomes too – he is also not a classic drop back pocket passer – in fact, he’s better when he’s out of the pocket and creating, just like Mayfield.
April 27th, 2023 at 9:18 am
Goatfarmer Tampa arguably has the most approachable friendly (dare I say desperate) women in the country. If you have a 720 credit score, no felony convictions, your own apartment, a car, a job and have not yet been rendered impotent by alcoholism or a cocaine addiction – that automatically puts you in the top 10% of dateable men in the area.
God forbid you hit the gym regularly and make 6 figures – they stalk you! Its out of control!
If you need a slump buster to get some lovin in Tampa God have mercy on your soul.
Oh and furthermore… Kyle Trask is going to win this job.
April 27th, 2023 at 9:49 am
LANshark – Mike Alstott retired in 2008 (2007 really) and we don’t have two of the top five RBs in football on Tampa’s roster. So running the heck out of the ball and throwing pop passes to backs and TEs is not going to be a winning formula.
That’s what you do if you are super thin at QB – meaning you don’t have one. Its pretty easy to look good when your team averages 150 yards rushing per game. Then again they had similar rushing attacks in 2019 and 2021 and Baker didn’t look that great. he did have a decent season in 2020 – but that being his best year he still only averaged 222 ypg. That would have put him at 17th in the league last year.
Take another look at Baker’s stats as a Ram. Out of the 5 games – only threw over 200 yards twice. 111 yards against the Pack. 132 against the Chargers. 147 against the Seahawks. The guy stinks. He’s a bum. Inconsistent. Throws too many INTS. Can’t push the ball downfield. Best possible scenario with the guy is you play lights out defense, run 140+ yards a game and he plays the role as game manager and doesn’t turn the ball over. Bucs don’t have the personnel for that kind of team. They have big talented possession type WRs and a halfway decent pass catching TE. People are hyped about White, but I don’t see the flash and explosion there – so I don’t have great expectations for the running game.
Don’t be shocked if Kyle Trask wins the job pretty convincingly.
If Kyle doesn’t well then take the under on 6.5 because its going to be a looooong season.