Advanced Stats Unkind To Rachaad White
April 14th, 2023
Rare highlight.
It’s not fair for folks, including Joe, to bury Bucs running back Rachaad White.
Joe thinks it’s irresponsible to shovel dirt in his face after only one year.
Still, White’s rookie year didn’t exactly fill Joe with confidence the Bucs have the new version of Warrick Dunn. He was incredible against Seattle and largely forgettable the rest of the season.
Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis did a deep dive statistically on White and the results, per Hribar, are that White was one of the league’s worst backs last season.
As part of their initial wave of releasing veteran players, the team cut Leonard Fournette. This seemingly gives the keys to the backfield over to Rachaad White, who the team selected in the third round (91st overall) a year ago.
Among 44 backs with 100 or more carries in 2022, White ranked:
38th in yards per carry (3.8 YPC)
33rd in EPA per rush (-0.11)
42nd in rate of runs for 10 or more yards (6.6%)
43rd in yards created after contact per carry (2.29)
How bad was it for White and the Bucs last season? Hribar claims only one NFL back had consistently worse numbers than White in 2022. That was Playoff Lenny.
Look, Joe is confident even a dude walking around with a white cane in one hand and a docile golden retriever in the other could see that former Bucs offensive coordinator SpongeBob was over his head last year.
Just having a guy now who seems to know how to work in a running attack should help the Bucs, and White in particular.
Between White’s struggles and the deep running back draft in two weeks, Joe expects Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht to select a running back.
April 14th, 2023 at 3:54 am
“only one back that had consistently worse numbers than White in 2022. That was Playoff Lenny.”
Shocking results… it’s almost like having a moron as your OC, who runs the same plays over and over and over again, in the same order, tips off the other team.
Now, here’s a stat I’d love to see but I can’t find anywhere. How did White and Lenny do when they ran on 2nd and 3rd down, when it was not a ‘short’ situation, ie, when the other team didn’t have 8 men in the box? From watching every play of every game, what stood out was that the running game seemed to work just fine when the Bucs weren’t being completely predictable, but maybe I’m wrong.
April 14th, 2023 at 3:56 am
I think he’s not that good
April 14th, 2023 at 3:57 am
But he’s got a great knack of self promotion. Team is clueless
April 14th, 2023 at 4:09 am
Anyone who regularly watched the Bucs last season could see the issues with the running game (and the offense in general) were due to our former OC not understanding how to scheme to our strengths, adjust to our opponents, and call plays effectively. Anyone outside of Derrick Henry would have finished similarly in the running back rankings with Boron in charge. Let us pray that Canales is the answer. His background, combined with what he has said so far, certainly inspires hope. Let’s see what Rachaad can really do!
April 14th, 2023 at 4:17 am
Put any RB in the league behind that OL, with that OC, and our HC,……and the results would be the same. The offense was confused and predictable, and Brady couldn’t get the team in the end zone. You would expect the great Tom Brady to put the team on his back and score points. He couldn’t and didn’t. White was a rookie, and wasn’t the problem.
April 14th, 2023 at 4:47 am
Rachaad came into a less-than-ideal situation last season (predictable play-calling, mediocre run-blocking, etc), but overall I thought he did reasonably well (3.7 YPC) for a rookie getting very limited carries (only 7.5 carries/game average). I was particularly impressed with his catching the ball (targeted 58 times, caught 50 of those for 86%). He’ll be fine this year.
That said however, Bucs still need to draft at least 1 more RB, preferably a power back who can get us those hard yards in short yardage situations. Still like Roschon Johnson from Texas later in the draft.
April 14th, 2023 at 5:43 am
Nobody really knows how good he will be when he working with a decent OC and OL. I thought he flashed some real talent at times. This is a deep RB class, mid rounds are where the best value seems to be. Not a good year not to have a 4th round pick.
Besides White the Bucs only have 3 other Rbs on the roster. Vaughn. Patrick Laird and Chase Edmonds. Adding a few Rbs via draft and UFA is going to happen. It’s going to be an exciting position battle come training camp.
April 14th, 2023 at 6:13 am
I can’t blame white. The offense was so predictable last year I heard 6 year olds in the stands calling out the plays before they happened. Opposing defenses were laughing at us. White deserves another chance. Doesn’t it say something that Fournette was even worse?
April 14th, 2023 at 7:08 am
So we some how ended up with the two worst backs in the league 🤔hmmmm yeah maybe play calling was a factor.
April 14th, 2023 at 7:24 am
Dunn was a pretty good RB but only averaged 4
ypc during his career in Tampa.
Is 3.8 ypc for a rookie really that bad Joe?
I mean when you factor in that Captain Flat Brim was calling the plays you gotta cut the kid some slack.
I think RW is going to have a dam good year in our new system.
April 14th, 2023 at 7:37 am
In order to be fair you’d have to stack White’s numbers side by side with Lenny’s to determine if it was more of a product of the Oline and OC.
April 14th, 2023 at 7:44 am
He was a rookie with a lousy play caller. He’s got confidence. Need that in a player. I expect him to play much better.
April 14th, 2023 at 7:52 am
You think playcalling and poor run blocking contributed much, Joe? If the only worse back was his teammate?
April 14th, 2023 at 7:54 am
Predictable was the word for the entire offense. When the other team knows exactly what you are doing before the ball is snapped there is a huge problem. Can’t tell you how many times other defenses had 8 or even 9 men in the box and we didn’t adjust the play call out of a run.
April 14th, 2023 at 7:57 am
Sorry – this one you have to look at the stats with a huge grain of salt. Leftwich’s inept playcalling was largely to blame.
No one knows what Canales is. Hopefully better. And, hopefully, last year was mostly Byron and not Bowles’ neutering the offense.
Regardless, White gets a mulligan for last year.
April 14th, 2023 at 8:03 am
The Bucs cut D Smith, traded S Mason, signed M Feiler , Jensen was out the whole year last year until the playoff game, lost A Stinnie to a torn ACL last year and the Bucs most likely will use one of their 1st 3 picks on an Olineman- if that doesn’t illustrate the biggest problem with the run game last year, then you’re not paying attention.
April 14th, 2023 at 8:10 am
It was the old, washed up QB’s fault we were dead last in rushing last year. If he wasn’t so old, he would’ve bailed us out when we were consistently behind the chains.
April 14th, 2023 at 8:43 am
The line was bad for a lot of the season and the play calling was pop Warner level
Give him a fresh start in a zone scheme and I bet he looks a whole lot better
April 14th, 2023 at 8:43 am
Not concerned about White yet, but we’re definitely not going into the season with White, Edmonds, Vaughn, & Laird as our only RB’s. Beyond high chance we add a RB that competes with White for #1. Not a fan of White seeming to think #1’s already been handed to him though since Fournette was released. There’s a decent chance he’s still number 2 by mid-season.
April 14th, 2023 at 8:48 am
See if you can lure Alstott out of retrement, Joe. He retired many years ago but still may be younger than Brady. Actually Mike would make a heck of a coach and instill some gritty attitude into the RB room.
April 14th, 2023 at 8:58 am
Eric Dickerson would look pedestrian in that team’s offensive scheme.
I am so happy Flat Hat is gone.
April 14th, 2023 at 9:45 am
White gets an “incomplete” grade for last year.
April 14th, 2023 at 9:45 am
EXACTLY WHY WE SHOULD LOOK AT BIJAN. White was extremely overrated last year, especially in run game. You trying to rebuild run/ pass game with White and Vaughn (could or could not in contrast Year). We’ve Bijan running ability, but he is also an amazing pass catcher that can get serious YAC and even downfield. I’ll take the OT from OU or Tennessee if that’s the sole position they are focused on in the first, but Bijan looks like a powerhouse NFL RB (still cannot be confirmed).
April 14th, 2023 at 9:45 am
I expect both our backs led the league in getting hit behind the LOS
April 14th, 2023 at 10:06 am
It’s hard to be productive when EVERY DC the Bucs faced predicted accurately what play is about to be run.
Pure Flat Hat fail.
April 14th, 2023 at 10:39 am
I don’t hold those numbers against him. It’s clear he was crippled by a crap offensive coordinator.
April 14th, 2023 at 10:41 am
Leftwich should have asked Arians why he was calling certain plays at certain times and tried to learn from him. He thought that being an OC was just about being able to make the actual play calls. Like, just being able to look at BA’s playbook and call the plays before he got a penalty for delay of game. Poor guy. I heard he got passed over for the OC job at a local Tampa high school the other day
April 14th, 2023 at 11:10 am
New blocking scheme, new OL, & 1 year in the NFL. I’m not quite ready to count White out yet as I think he can mature into a Matt Forte type of weapon out of our backfield. Looking forward to hearing how he takes to the almost new everything on offense.
April 14th, 2023 at 11:10 am
SHORT-TERM MEMORY FRIDAY
Do you think it’s any wonder Licht canned the offensive coordinator and the left-side of the offensive line?
Rewatch the games. The running backs were getting hit a yard behind the line. The plays were predictable, the blocking schemes were predictable, the blockers were horrible. Unless you’re Barry Sanders, you cannot run without blocking.
White is not Rojo. He’s a good back.
April 14th, 2023 at 11:45 am
The amount of cope amongst Bucs fans with this guy is insane. He’s like Gerald McCoy or Donovan Smith in reverse the way people rush in to make excuses for him. The only game he looked decent was Seattle and we dominated them up front. He gets what’s blocked, nothing more.
April 14th, 2023 at 11:51 am
Where do all the 4 yard losses go in those stats. Because if they are factored in you and everyone else should be talking about the Oline couldn’t run block my grandma. These stats don’t mean squat when you consider all of the other factors!
April 14th, 2023 at 11:52 am
The kid showed me enough last year to be hopeful. Meanwhile, fellow rookie Goedonkey showed me he’s hopeless at guard, but maybe can play tackle. Hope.
April 14th, 2023 at 11:58 am
@Defense Rules
Wow Only 7.3 carries? That’s even more of a reason to toss those stats out the window. Another stat man blows it. Problem is some people are just eating this dudes fancy stats up and willing to pay good money to be bamboozled!
April 14th, 2023 at 1:10 pm
The only one of those stats that is soley a reflection on White is:
– 43rd in yards created after contact per carry
Which is not good. But all the rest involve the o-line and playcalling too. Both of which were sub-par last year.
April 14th, 2023 at 1:10 pm
*solely
April 14th, 2023 at 1:56 pm
His style is similar to Leveon Bell with a hesitation to find the hole except there was no hole. In the passing game where there was a little open field he did convert some first downs so if he gets a little room to run through maybe he can be a 4.2 or 4.3 yard per carry guy.
Not sold on him yet but nothing to say that he will be a bad RB. He could get stronger and more muscular in year number two. If not particularly fast, get those legs built up and stronger.
April 14th, 2023 at 2:59 pm
Our run game was bad. Blocking was bad. Coaching was bad. But our RBs were also bad. They routinely turned 15 yard runs into 4 yard runs. And 4 yard runs into 2 yard runs. We need to upgrade this position in the draft. Luckily its a deep RB class. Grab somebody with juice in the 3rd round. I suggest Tyjea Spears if he’s there.
April 14th, 2023 at 3:53 pm
“only one back that had consistently worse numbers than White in 2022. That was Playoff Lenny.”
Rod says. “Shocking results… it’s almost like having a moron as your OC, who runs the same plays over and over and over again, in the same order, tips off the other team”
“Almost like”having a moron OC??????
April 14th, 2023 at 7:45 pm
It’s easy to say “I’m not pressed” when you know there is no accountability; no one can sneak up and spring the stats on you.
Evaluating Rachaad White isn’t a stat kinda thing: he barley played in the first half of the 2022 season; whenever he had some early-in-the-game impressive yards-gained-average going, Byron-the-cringeworthy would kill-it-off with his signature: 1st & up-the-middle.
James White’s and Kevin Faulk’s more refined-skills of the finesse RB/receivers were grossly under-appreciated outside Patriots fandom, too, but many, many games would have been lost without them.
Forget the stats.
Like Jake Gittes famously said: This kind of work takes a little finesse.
April 14th, 2023 at 8:15 pm
Ed Says:
April 14th, 2023 at 1:56 pm
His style is similar to Leveon Bell with a hesitation to find the hole except there was no hole.
———
That was in running style in college, last year he did that less and hit the line faster, which I HATE, and think is a terrible trend, and probably can chalk it up to terrible coaching. His RAS score and combine numbers show he can be a stop and start guy, and when you’re a patient runner, that helps your blockers. But I guarantee last year the stupid coaches where telling him he had no time to hesitate, he had to hit the LOS as fast as possible, which is not always true. Yes, you don’t want someone back there dancing around, but guys like Bell, who can just give their guys an extra tenth of a second or two to open holes, or even to read the defense, those guys can be special.
And I’m totally sold on him. He’s a top notch pass catcher, and hopefully the coaches have actually watched his college tape and told him to go back to his natural running style. Do that, and he’s getting you over 2000 yards from scrimmage.
April 14th, 2023 at 11:55 pm
I’d say it was our Oline more then all three running backs are trash . Lenny was too big for them tiny running lanes. White I can’t judge yet not enough runs per game to ever get in a flow .
April 15th, 2023 at 8:23 am
I always felt like he was one play away from breaking a long one to da house but running backs can’t get in a rhythm when they only get the ball 5 times a game.His best game was in Seattle when he had like 18 Carries