Former Bucs GM Hopes Jason Licht Is Hungry To Trade Down, Perhaps Multiple Times
February 24th, 2023
“Mark, not everyone can be a seventh-round rock star like you were in 2010.”
Joe’s a big fan of former Bucs rock star general manager Mark Dominik because — why else? — he’s a Bucs fan.
He’s also a busy NFL Draft guru for SiriusXM NFL Radio.
Dominik was talking all things roster building today and had plenty to say about the Bucs and the man who succeeded him, Tampa Bay general manager Jason Licht.
Licht is closing in on his 10th NFL Draft in red and pewter and Dominik has advice for predecessor.
The Bucs are in prime position to roll with inexpensive third-year quarterback Kyle Trask as their starter, Dominik believes. He thinks Licht played the Tom Brady years correctly from a roster and financial standpoint, and it’s a sound move to pay their huge salary cap debt now and retool the team effectively at the same time.
Now go trade down and load up on mid-round picks and hope to strike gold at least a few times, Dominik advised Licht.
“Perfect time to [go with Trask] because as we saw last year, you still might be able to win the division at 8-9 or 9-8 next year. You can still do that,” Dominik said. “Again, this is where, when you’re in this situation, the draft, as important as it is, has to be even more emphasized and has to be even more critical. And this is where the undrafted free agents after the draft, finding one or two more of those guys and really understanding like when you’re going through a draft that maybe you need to stockpile picks this year.
“Maybe you need to try to trade back a little bit more because you need, you know, three or four fourth-rounders and four or five fifth-rounders and ‘I don’t need this second-rounder. I don’t need this second-rounder; I’m going to move-it-back, move-it-back, move-it-back.’ And just try to stockpile some bodies because we need a lot of players in here. And hoping that you can, you know, hit some home runs in those mid-rounds.
“This draft is really good in the second round; it’s a loaded second round. And it’s still a good first round, but I mean it’s a year where you almost consider, ‘Hey, I’ll move out of the first round pick up and try to pick up an extra [second-round pick] and an extra [fourth-rounder] just because I like what my value is in the second round. … So I’m sure that Jason, hopefully, looked at all those things and said, ‘Hey look, we’re going to move around the draft. We’re going to collect a bunch of guys in that way. Hopefully they can contribute. And also, by the way, the NFC South right now is struggling at the quarterback spot, so while we’re in this cap purgatory or cap mess, we still can be competitive because everybody else is struggling, too.”
Joe’s not sure about trading down over and over again this season as a good Bucs strategy. But Joe remembers Dominik had 10 rookies start during the 2010 Bucs season and the team went 10-6.
That a great reminder that teams can turn around in a hurry — even in a good division like the NFC South was back then.
February 24th, 2023 at 3:58 pm
HELL YEA
February 24th, 2023 at 4:03 pm
Yea, we should be looking to use every day 3 pick we have to move back into day 2. We’re sitting on 4, could have as many as 6 once comp picks get doled out.
February 24th, 2023 at 4:05 pm
With all due respect, He might be the last person I’d listen to when it comes to building a roster.
February 24th, 2023 at 4:06 pm
This wouldn’t be as big of an issue if Licht kept trading away our 4th rounders to move up in the draft to pick a guy that would have likely been there at our slotted pic anyway. He picks guys higher than they are rated on all public boards. He needs to quit thinking he is the smartest guy in the room.
February 24th, 2023 at 4:09 pm
We’re probably drafting too low to get a true stud in round 1 anyways (not to mention round 1 picks are about 50/50 begin with)… so why not try to grab a bunch of guys in rounds 2 and 3, if you can?
February 24th, 2023 at 4:12 pm
Yes trade back and collect talent not projects!
February 24th, 2023 at 4:13 pm
Maybe trade out of the first if the guy you want isnt there. only because his salary cap hit is higher. Licht over the years has drafted well most of the time. We really need a great draft again from him. last 2 have been a little rough. and please no kickers lol
February 24th, 2023 at 4:15 pm
Your best chance for an impact player is a player you get in the 1st round.
If you trade out of the 1st round from 19, your shot of getting an impact player is probably less than 20 percent. It seems like there are impact players most likely at OT, DL, and Edge this year and if you think that the Bucs could use those types of guys, why trade down.
So, to actually strike gold on a few middle round picks would probably be under 5 percent. That would almost assuredly get Licht fired.
2010 draft picks by Bucs
Gerald McCoy 3rd overall pick
2nd round Brian Price DT and Arrelious Benn WR
3rd round Myron Lewis CB
4th round Mike Williams WR
6th round Brent Bowden P
7th round Cody Grimm S, Dekoda Watson LB, Erik Lorig LS
Don’t want to hate on that draft but it really was not special either.
February 24th, 2023 at 4:19 pm
Glad they jacked up my season tickets then!
February 24th, 2023 at 4:20 pm
And trade away players
Forget the cap constraints, the team is so far off from what we watched in the playoffs this year that rebuilding is what the franchise is facing. A new offense and no returning quarterback.
The above is why I want to trade any player that can bring draft picks of fair value and I have no problem if the draft pick is not this year. I’m OK with trading down as part of the strategy of accumulating draft picks
February 24th, 2023 at 4:21 pm
Dominick is the guy who let a pass rusher go for “no good reason”
But…I do agree that a trade down or two is a wise move.
We need cheap players and draft picks in the mid rounds are cheap.
We don’t have a 4th rounder this year (spent on Zyon)
But…it is true that Licht gets the itchy finger with his additional picks and uses them later to trade up…..so we don’t end up with more players.
This time, since the need is great, he may not do that.
We could use….LB, CB, S, Edge, DT, TE, RB, K (don’t draft a Kicker)
February 24th, 2023 at 4:28 pm
That’s why the Bucs pay Licht the big bucks … and why they don’t pay Dominik the big bucks … or pay anyone in the media the big bucks … or pay anyone writing comments at a website the big bucks.
None of us is the GM … the guy who IS the GM will do the trading and picking, and it seems he’s done better than average more years than not.
“My momma said life is like a box of chocolates – you never know what you’re gonna get.”
February 24th, 2023 at 4:32 pm
I don’t know about trading back. I would be looking for a new right tackle at the 19th pick, assuming we cut Smith and move Wirffs to LT. Mid round picks need to be spent on another guard and defensive front seven, with a CB in there somewhere too.
February 24th, 2023 at 4:32 pm
I don’t ever like trading out of the 1st I think its getting cute. I think we should take best available especially with how well Licht seems to draft. A first round draft pick for Licht is nearly a lock every time.
February 24th, 2023 at 4:35 pm
” I’m going to move-it-back, move-it-back, move-it-back.’ And just try to stockpile some bodies because we need a lot of players in here.”
TRANSLATION: The Bucs salary cap is screwed and they only have 3-4 contracts to restructure. The credit card has been maxed out and the house has been mortgaged twice already… We need cheap, young, healthy and hungry players.
Thank goodness we have a Super Bowl trophy to show for it all.
Go Bucs!
February 24th, 2023 at 4:37 pm
@ TBBF
Thank you.
I was going to come on here and slam “The Rock Star” but you did it for me…
LOL!
February 24th, 2023 at 4:38 pm
Get me any combo of:
-Tuli Tuipulotu
-Julius Brents
-Ivan Pace Jr
-Antonio Johnson
-Nesta Jade Silvera
– J.L. Skinner
-Braden Daniels
And of course Hendon Hooker. This is going to be a defensive draft, as we’re looking to lose several players from the secondary and DL. Starters and role players.
February 24th, 2023 at 4:43 pm
‘Now go trade down and load up on mid-round picks and HOPE to strike gold at least a few times, Dominik advised Licht’.
Oh wow. Did anyone notice the word HOPE in that statement? That’s exactly what a strategy like that is based on … 100% HOPE. Lots of studies of the success rate per round of selection have shown that players taken in Rnds 4-7 have a very low rate of getting a 2nd contract. (Numbers vary slightly but 25-30% would be in the ballpark it appears … and by far the largest part of that percentage were the 4th Rounders).
Stick with the Top 3 Rounds Jason, and nail it. We don’t have a 4th rounder (at present), but odds of hitting below that are slim.
February 24th, 2023 at 4:46 pm
Don’t listen to this guy. You are better getting a 2nd round starter then a bunch of 4th and 5th round roster cuts. I you move down in rd 2 it is to get a round 3 pick. BPA works. Land 3 starters by year 2 and 2 depth players and draft is a win.
February 24th, 2023 at 4:47 pm
More swings at a talented pool is better than less. In a game of attrition, you can never go wrong with linemen on both sides, and corners. A left tackle is likely top of the list.
February 24th, 2023 at 4:49 pm
We really MUST stockpile picks.
Start by trading Devin White.
February 24th, 2023 at 4:51 pm
@ DR
Ever watch the movie “Bad Santa”?
HOPE in one hand and $h!t in the other – see which one fills up first…
LOL!!!!!
I have to admit – I will always be grateful of Mark Dominik’s greatest accomplishment – Fullback extraordinaire Eric Lorig.
February 24th, 2023 at 4:53 pm
Horrible strategy.
I say we trade UP and draft a kicker!
— GM Toddy (at your service)
February 24th, 2023 at 4:58 pm
Trade Devin White for an extra 2nd and 3rd rounder. Try to combine some lower picks for another 3rd or 4th rounder. Bucs should primarily go D with at least one pick in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th and 7th. Need a #1 TE (2nd rd), a RB (3rd or 4th rd) and a WR (5th or 6th rd). I would love to see the Bucs take QB Hooker with one of their 3rd round picks.
The biggest question is at LT. Use Wells or Goedeke, move Wirfs over or draft one. My guess is the Bucs will try to use Wells or Goedeke to save money and draft a LT in 2024 (2nd rd) if it doesn’t work out.
February 24th, 2023 at 5:04 pm
@ Bucs Guy
I hear what your saying but I wouldn’t depend too much on OT J. Wells…
He is turning 33 and has been injured (while playing very limited snaps) two years in a row.
Maybe bring in a guy like Taylor Lewan on a one year deal and throw Goedeke out there at OT and see what happens.
February 24th, 2023 at 5:06 pm
*** YOU’RE not your***
For all you grammar nat-zees…
February 24th, 2023 at 5:11 pm
Jason is Dominik’s predecessor? funny timeline we live in
February 24th, 2023 at 5:11 pm
Wells as a starter? That’s baths!t crazy. He’s a servicable backup. If Wirfs can move to LT, Goedeke can be RT. Or we draft a LT and keep Wirfs at RT.
February 24th, 2023 at 5:14 pm
Trading down makes sense please no trading up we need all our picks and could use a couple of more. I totally agree with sasquatch trade Devin White while you can hes going to want a lot more money than his worth after this season.
February 24th, 2023 at 5:15 pm
Josh Wells is a FA, and why play musical chairs on the OL when all we still need is a functional LG. I don’t think you guys realize we’re losing damn near half our defense this offseason. Dean, SMB, Edwards, Ryan, Hicks, Nassib, Nelson, Nacho, Gholston, Neal, LVD, and even Dee Delaney. We’re double dipping at DB, maybe even triple with 2 CBs & a Safety. Talking as if players can’t improve is moronic
February 24th, 2023 at 5:32 pm
I am pretty sure we will get some complementary draft picks because of the number of free agents on the roster. Use them as draft, trades to generate more picks and build your roster
February 24th, 2023 at 5:32 pm
I like it!
February 24th, 2023 at 6:20 pm
We actually have to, He usually gets one good player every 3rd draft. It just increases his odds.
February 24th, 2023 at 6:45 pm
Marine Buc … I’d love to have an Eric Lorig type on the roster. i thought Ko Kieft was gonna be that guy, but after last year I’m not so sure.
February 24th, 2023 at 6:48 pm
@suresh,
I didn’t know the NFL gave out complementary draft picks. Is it like appetizers at happy hour where you just have to order a few drinks?
Maybe we should get some of them to go along with the compensatory pick(s) we’ll get for losing free agents last year.
February 24th, 2023 at 6:49 pm
Gotta get some extra picks so Licht can pick a kicker
February 24th, 2023 at 7:03 pm
Not fair to count last year, but look at who we’ve still got from our previous drafts from Rnds 4-7 during the Jason Licht era:
o 2021: Britt remains (Darden, Wilcox, Stuard … gone)
o 2020: None remain (Johnson, Russell, Calais, Davis … gone)
o 2019: None remain (Nelson & Miller FAs … Gay & Beckner … gone)
o 2018: None remain (Whitehead, Watson, Cichy … gone)
o 2017: None remain (McNichols, Stevie T … gone)
o 2016: None remain (R Smith, Benenoch, Bond, Vitalle … gone)
o 2015: None remain (Kwon, Bell, Iosefa, Bell … gone)
o 2014: None remain (Edwards, Pamphile, Herron … gone)
Does anyone notice a trend there? Our Rnd 4-7 picks didn’t stick. And only 3 became starters or key rotational players for us from those 2014-2021 years: Kwon, Nelson & Whitehead (if you include Otton & Camarda from 2022 class, that’d be 5). That’s out of 33 picks in Rnds 4-7 by JL during the 2014-2022 period. That’s 15% who have become key players for us over a 9-year period.
Now please tell me again why we want to trade out of the Top-3 Rnds and grab more Rnd 4-7 picks?
February 24th, 2023 at 7:07 pm
@407 and other snarky commenters,
Jason Licht is 2 out of 3 picking kickers and punters. Obviously Aguayo was an inexplicable decision, but Matt Gay is a Pro Bowl kicker and Jake Camarda is already one of the best in the league. I’m not advocating for drafting a kicker outside of round 7, but the snark about Licht is ignorant. Every GM has picks that blew up and made them look stupid. There’s no excuse for the Aguayo pick, but maybe give it a rest.
February 24th, 2023 at 7:11 pm
Bobby Beathard was an HOF GM and one of the greatest of all time.
Some more credentials in case you were interested: Beathard was part of seven Super Bowl teams, starting with Kansas City in 1966. He led the Redskins to three Super Bowls in seven years, two of which they won and although Washington’s Super Bowl championship team in 1991 was manned by GM Charley Casserly, it was composed primarily of Beathard’s players. Then he shipped off to San Diego and won a championship in 1994, taking a perennial loser in the Chargers and whipping them into elite form.
He traded out of the first round seven consecutive times in his career, not necessarily the most popular move depending on the players available.
Given that 1st round QB’s bust at a 40% rate…DL -35%…WR’s 30% with DB’s being the safest picks with a bust rate of 26% Beathard’s logic seems sound IMHO.
If you wish to get knee deep in the weeds and factor in $$$ 1st rounders become more problematic. Rounds one and two tend to offer the least value since the initial rookie contracts guarantee quite a lot of money for people that have never taken a snap in the NFL. This actually suggests that there is a market inefficiency which benefits those players over the teams. Only 30% of the round one picks will get a second contract with the same team.
Beathard’s strategy was simple. Look at those numbers again and realize it’s ALL a big crapshoot with better odds in the higher rounds but still no sure deals.
Beathard simply believed if you turned that 1st rounder into several other picks he increased his odds of success. His record speaks for itself.
He would have NEVER wasted the #1 pick in the entire draft on Fameis Jameis arguably one of the very worst wasted picks the Bucs have made…stats be damned. He would have taken 3-4 other picks for that single shot.
February 24th, 2023 at 7:15 pm
a collection of projects like joe tryon and logan hall and zyon mcCollum and almost all of last year and year before draft
February 24th, 2023 at 7:16 pm
Sasquatch … Jason has done quite well in the Top-3 Rnds over his 9 years IMO, but not very good in Rnds 4-7 (apparently not many GMs have BTW). There are tons of kickers out there looking for work who were previously drafted but didn’t stick for whatever reason. Borregales (from our last 2 years) is one of them, but there are tons of others. I wouldn’t waste a draft pick on a college kicker (even in Rnd 7) unless he was REALLY GOOD.
February 24th, 2023 at 7:25 pm
“Dominik had 10 rookies start during the 2010 Bucs season and the team went 10-6.”
That’s top level managing and coaching. Bring him back!
February 24th, 2023 at 7:27 pm
😂 @ 407
February 24th, 2023 at 7:27 pm
I don’t think a 4th round pick on a punter who gives you a field position advantage in every game is a big deal. Nor is a 5th rounder for a kicker who can hit a high percentage inside 60.
A 2nd rounder was literally insane.
Anyway, I doubt they’ll draft a kicker as Jake Verity (signed on futures contract 01/25) has a good chance to be our kicker. Big leg.
February 24th, 2023 at 7:35 pm
I’m quite sure that Jason Licht realizes how much aptitude Mark Dumbestnik has for the general manager’s gig when he inherited the train wreck that was unrecognizable as a train after the failed general mangler went 28-52 and was finally fired.
It’s unlikely that Jason Licht takes advice from maroons.
Someone pat Dumbestnik on the head, thank him for his enthusiasm, and tell him to bring the coffee. That was his only expertise.
February 24th, 2023 at 7:58 pm
Bucs need an impact player in this draft. They can be had in the first round of you do your homework.
Don’t trade down unless the offer is aggressive.
February 24th, 2023 at 8:18 pm
Bullspit, love the idea of trading down, last time we traded out of the first round it yielded us the great Logan Hall. What could possibly go wrong with that philosophy?
February 24th, 2023 at 8:28 pm
Trading down isn’t a bad idea to get a couple extra picks while the Bucs navigate a lot of financial stress the next couple of years.
Either way, I hope they fortify the trenches and move Logan Hall to 5-tech where he belongs.
February 24th, 2023 at 8:41 pm
Championships are Not built on 1st Rd picks but on a teams 2nd and 3rd picks.
February 24th, 2023 at 8:49 pm
Absolutely agree with this. We need cheap warm bodies and some of them will contribute right away. We still have enough talent to compete for the division. Who knows… maybe we will be even better this year without Lefty and Brady. Brady had some great 4th quarter comebacks but why were we always behind in the 4th quarter. Maybe we will actually have the lead sometimes with Trask at QB.
February 24th, 2023 at 8:59 pm
If some of the key positions they need are deep, then by all means… They have been skimpy on draft picks for several years. Look at the patriots, get a franchise quarterback and a ton of draft picks year after year after year. It enables you options at drafting or trading, etc..
Of course, the key is a franchise quarterback, and that might not happen till next year
February 24th, 2023 at 10:11 pm
Hmm. Just read that if LD leaves in free-agency, it makes a $6.9 million cap hit. If we re-SIGN him, only makes for $2.3 million
February 24th, 2023 at 10:13 pm
The BUCS are going to surprise everyone this year and I don’t mean by blowing have faith true fans or walk the plank….
February 24th, 2023 at 10:30 pm
Dson — whatever hallucinogens you are enjoying, share them with us.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:45 pm
…..”and Dominik has advice for his
predecessor”
Seriously??…Dominick giving advise?
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
February 25th, 2023 at 6:21 am
Bucc941 Says
“With all due respect, He might be the last person I’d listen to when it comes to building a roster. ”
This.
Mark Dominick is no longer a GM for a reason. He’s been unable to get hired by another team for a reason.
Trading out of the first looks good on paper. It would save millions in cap money. But unless we get that first rounder back the following year, it would hurt the team too much.
Trade down in the first? That’s an option. Someone will want to jump up a few spots to get their guy, and we could land a second rounder by trading down a few spots, plus it would reduce the cost of the first.
So that is certainly an option.
However, don’t for get that 19 will likely be right in the middle of a run on linemen, so that has to be considered as well.
February 25th, 2023 at 6:24 am
I would also point out, Jason Licht is not Mark Dominicks predecessor.
February 25th, 2023 at 6:27 am
Goatfarmer Says
“Dson — whatever hallucinogens you are enjoying, share them with us.”
Never try to crush hope. It’s uncool.
And it really isn’t outside the realm of possibility, considering health should be better.
February 25th, 2023 at 6:35 am
“Dominik had 10 rookies start during the 2010 Bucs season and the team went 10-6.”
Dominick didnt play the games.
And as I recall. That was the only good year…and the Bucs were so bad that everyone knew they got lucky with the schedule that year.
We have not had an easy schedule since.
February 25th, 2023 at 7:03 am
Great! We’ll land a bunch of average dudes that will never have what it takes to win a SB. Clueless.
February 25th, 2023 at 8:02 am
That’s probably the best way to reload the team and get younger
February 25th, 2023 at 8:50 am
For those that want to critique Dominick and his time here, I think context is extremely important when you analyze ANY team and/or GM that helped build it. When Dominick took over, the Glazers were done spending and he had to build EVERYTHING through the draft AND those picks had to immediately perform. With that rebuild, there were no team friendly vets showing up at our door to play for a championship. This was life under Raheem and Schiano for 5 seasons. Some of you will say, well money shouldn’t matter when it comes to draft picks, they are what they are. You’re right, but depending on whether you’re drafting for need or best player available, is based on the current roster, the vets you already have, etc. Contextually, inserting a guy like McCollum, in a system mixed with High Quality draft picks like Davis (btw our entire secondary was drafted in the first 3 rounds) mixed in with solid vets like Logan, there was a different learning curve for him. Under earlier administrations Zyon would have been starting because the high draft capital players and/or solid vet free agents just would not have been there.
So when Licht was hired, he came in with Lovie Smith, how’d that go? Mike Evans is the only one still here from that draft, and the owners opened up their wallet and the first batch of priced sh** heads we got were Michael Johnson, Alterraun Verner, Anthony Collins, Josh McCown. And in the process, we let cheap solid contributors like Jeremy Zuttah and Donald Penn walk in free agency. Our Oline was really good prior to that. Remember Garret Gilkey, O’neil Cousins?…These guys with Collins and EDS made up one of the worst offensive lines I’ve ever seen in a Buccaneers uniform. McCown takes a lot of sh** from this writing staff…because he deserves to be called “McClown” because it’s cute, but this sh** show of team never even gave the guy a chance to perform, it was just so bad.
Very much like Byron Leftwich, Licht gets credit performing under optimal conditions. In fairness, he’s not on a island, his coaches have helped contribute to his free agent signings and draft picks… but at this point I don’t think he’s better than average when it comes to his performance as a GM. Right place, right time imo.
February 25th, 2023 at 9:49 am
I find it weird that everybody talks about how easy it is to win this division. But Atlanta and Carolina have cap room and could go out and sign Derek Carr and Lamar Jackson, and then the Bucs are looking at yay we got Kyle Trask!
Wake up people.
February 25th, 2023 at 12:32 pm
Why does anyone still listen to Mark Dominick? Trade up… trade down. Just make the right damn picks. Stop getting cute and no more kickers. If in doubt, take the SEC player.
February 25th, 2023 at 5:23 pm
We are so far over the cap we are going to have a whole lot of positions to fill and not a lot of money. Acquiring more picks is the best way to do that instead of putting it all on black and hoping that first pick pans out and then trying to sign a bunch of guys for vet minimum in fres agency