For The Luke Goedeke-Is-A-Turnstile Crowd
October 12th, 2022
Unfairly ridiculed.
Bucs rookie left guard Luke Goedeke is getting the Donovan Smith treatment. And if Joe is accurate, it will hound Goedeke for damn near a decade.
When Smith was drafted in 2015, seemingly before his name was announced as the Bucs’ second-round pick, fans were hollering and stomping their feet and slamming their pints of Big Storm Brewing beers in outrage that Smith was the team’s starting left tackle.
This hate, the best Joe can tell, originated from a two-bit website that has conned the greater public it is the final word on football play, and it has innocent Americans fornicating over its GD grades. It’s an outfit that had an ax to grind with Smith.
(As former NFL suit Michael Lombardi says about this outfit with its worker bees originating from Irish dorm rooms, “Who grades the graders?”)
A division title and a Super Bowl ring later, Smith still has some devout haters to this day. Never mind he has anchored a Bucs offensive line that was the best in the NFL the past couple of years.
But Smith has earned the trust of most Bucs fans. Now, when he misses a rare game, most fans are bummed.
Joe senses Goedeke is getting the early Smith treatment. The rookie from Central Michigan hasn’t quite been a perfect replacement for Pro Bowler Ali Marpet, but dang, he’s a rookie.
In his first series Sunday against the Dixie Chicks, Goekeke was getting rag-dolled. Owned. It was like Grady Jarrett was facing a high school guard. But Goedeke found his way quickly and played much better.
Daily, Joe is asked here on or social media when Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht is going to find a left guard. Goedeke is going to get Tom Brady maimed, these folks say. Yet there is no evidence having inexperienced Goedeke and first-time center Robert Hainsey has caused Brady’s life insurance premiums to skyrocket.
Joe’s research doesn’t show it.
First, there is this nugget from long-time NFL beat writer and columnist Clark Judge, a Hall of Fame selector. Per Judge’s surprise, Brady has barely been touched of late.
Tampa Bay is living dangerously. The past two weeks 90.9 percent of its offensive yardage was produced by its 45-year-old quarterback. During that time, Brady threw 104 times, while the Bucs has only 29 carries. Amazingly, Brady was sacked only once.
So how is it that Brady dropped back over 100 times and has only been dropped once? Any reasonable person would take that two-week ratio for his quarterback any day of the week.
FantasyPros.com has quarterback pressure stats. And their numbers don’t suggest Brady is in danger of being in a wheelchair before Halloween.
Here is what Joe found:
Brady has dropped back the third-most time in the league. He has been hurried six times (ranked tied for No. 14 in the NFL;), been knocked down 13 times (18 quarterbacks have been knocked down more), and been sacked 6 times (27 quarterbacks have more sacks).
So Brady is in the bottom half of all starting quarterbacks when it comes to getting hurried, knocked down or sacked.
And this is bad?
When you factor in Smith missed two starts and was replaced once by a third-string tackle, this notion that Brady is getting beaten to a pulp because of poor blocking is grossly inaccurate if not a wild overreaction.
There simply is no evidence that Brady has turned into a cue ball on a pool table.
October 12th, 2022 at 3:39 am
Sacks are just as much a qb stat as it is a o-line stat.
Simply look at win/loss rates at each position to get a better view of what’s going on.
As an aside i was happy with the Goedeke pick, i think he’ll be fine with more reps/practice but at the moment hes not doing too hot.
October 12th, 2022 at 4:29 am
Those stats tell the truth, the GOAT has a very serviceable O line to work from
We need our core of starting receivers healthy, if possible, with Julio Jones, if he can contribute, perhaps he will be ready later for a playoff run or an Odel Beckham if the GOAT can lure him into the house.
And we need a Devin Hester type return man
October 12th, 2022 at 4:29 am
He has potential but cmon he gets beat like every play.
October 12th, 2022 at 4:49 am
The “roughing the passer” play was Goedeke getting beaten so badly that Brady didn’t have time to fall down on his own, like he normally does if a sack is inevitable. Not good.
October 12th, 2022 at 4:51 am
I can’t tell from anything I’ve read whether Goedeke is a stud or a dud. What I can see from the game stats is that Lenny has run more over the LG than any other for some reason (BL? cough). And those runs haven’t been very pretty (or effective). As far as pass-blocking goes Joe, typing things like this don’t help Goedeke’s case much …
‘In his first series Sunday against the Dixie Chicks, Goekeke was getting rag-dolled. Owned. It was like Grady Jarrett was facing a high school guard.’
He played ‘much better’ after that? As in he then looked like a Div II college guard instead of a high school guard? And when your QB is pretty much immobile and the OLDEST ever to play the position, middle of the pack protection doesn’t cut it.
October 12th, 2022 at 4:54 am
For the record, the talking heads who have said the “roughing the passer” call cost the Falcons a win…Atlanta would’ve found a way to lose that game, IMHO.
October 12th, 2022 at 5:50 am
Grady Jarrett against Goedeke is a mismatch any way you look at it. Not a good idea to have plays that require an empty backfield ,IMO. If you do then Brady might be forced to throw the ball in the dirt to protect himself.
October 12th, 2022 at 6:39 am
Goedeke does get cleanly beaten a few times a game which is scary with Brady back there but if he can clean up those few plays then he would grade out a lot better and be a decent guard for his first year in the league.
October 12th, 2022 at 6:51 am
Joe In Michigan you’re exactly correct. Go look at the Jarrett sack of Brady again. Cement shoes Gedeke just stands there as #97 beelines it to TB12.
It was outrageous. Go look at the damn tape man. That coulda ended our season right there.
Joe in Michigan is correct. Joe in Tampa is incorrect. All those stats you lay out are a direct result of Bradys 2 25 second release time. You know this Joe in Tampa.
October 12th, 2022 at 7:11 am
This reflects that our OL has been solid in spite of the injuries we’ve sustained so far, but none of this looks like an evaluation of Luke Goedeke and the 1 sack allowed in those 100 passes was allowed by Goedeke. Not saying Luke shouldn’t be playing or he’s failing, just stating the obvious that you can see with your eyes he’s out there looking like a rookie trying to keep up with the speed of the game on some plays. Obviously we had big shoes to fill with Marpet retiring, but there’s going to be a discrepancies replacing a pro bowl LG with a rookie.
October 12th, 2022 at 7:15 am
@Joe in Michigan and BucU I completely disagree. On that play it was a four man game and the right D-end sacrificed himself and crashed down on Smith and Goedeke which created the space for Grady to go around them both. Goedeke would have had to have some ELITE awareness and athleticism to make that block.
October 12th, 2022 at 7:21 am
Baptism of fire for Goedeke……give the kid some time….he’ll develop into a good LG…..
October 12th, 2022 at 7:24 am
Not since Paul Gruber stood tall at left tackle have we had someone as stout as Donovan Smith. If Goedeke grows into his position, which any rookie gets a chance to , we will have a first rate left guard. No one plays pro bowl caliber line play their rookie year.
October 12th, 2022 at 7:32 am
@ Joe in Michigan and BucU
There is nothing Goedeke was going to be able to do about Jarrett on that play the way it unfolded. He looped from being lined up over the right guard all the way around left tackle. In a perfect world the way that d-line game is supposed to be picked up is Donovan Smith passes his man over to Goedeke and Smith picks up Jarrett on the loop around. In reality what happened is Smith didn’t get a punch on his man rushing across his face, knocked his man into Goedeke’s side and Smith didn’t see the looper. It was honestly a pretty lazy pass set by Smith. Bad communication on both of their parts mid play. Brady drifting left in the pocket didn’t help anything.
October 12th, 2022 at 7:35 am
Look at who this kids had to go against in his first few games. Chris Jones, Grady Jarrett, Kenny Clark. He’s battling his ask off. You guys complaining about him can’t be this stupid.
October 12th, 2022 at 7:47 am
Frank – what about Tristan Wirfs?
October 12th, 2022 at 7:53 am
Haters are going to hate. Smith hasn’t bin perfect but he’s durable and gets the job done well. Luke will develop into a fine lineman. Our GM has a reputation for building the oline. He’s done a great job. Glad JL is our GM
October 12th, 2022 at 7:55 am
@gotbbucs
Donovan Smith stonewalled the DE/OLB after a spin move fail, Goedeke’s problem on that play he got caught with dead feet looking for someone to block and Jarett had him beat by time Jarrett rounded out the loop. Whenever you see a OLmen running into his own backfield, that’s an indicator he knows he got beat.
@KentuckyBuc
If I were Mike Tomlin, I’d adjust the defensive front to have Cam Heyward playing the A-gap between Goedeke and Hainsey or even right on top of Goedeke, all game.
October 12th, 2022 at 7:56 am
Wirfs is an outlier and you all know it. An absolute athletic freak who can dunk behind his head at 300 plus pounds.
October 12th, 2022 at 7:59 am
Well, the kid is getting healthy doses of humble pie. Every game. He hasn’t been mouthing off recently so that’s always nice. He’ll be fine, in time
October 12th, 2022 at 8:00 am
We are talking about protecting the GOAT, although not as stationary as the statue Craig Morton was back in the 70’s, but Brady is close to that at 45. Like it or not, the is the NFL, and other teams do not give you a pass, no they want to tear Bradys head off. And right now, Luke is seen as the weak link on the line by other teams and they are going to focus there. Just the nature of the beast. Luke has not been outright terrible overall, but no one wants to see Brady get mangled while Luke learns the LG position. Learn fast Luke, learn fast.
GO BUCS!!!!
October 12th, 2022 at 8:14 am
Was thinking the same thing Dooley. I’m sure it’s already in the works. Nothing better for this kid. Trial by fire.
October 12th, 2022 at 8:25 am
@Dooley. If the Steelers out Cam over him that will be the 4th Pro Bowler he’s had to go against already as a rookie.
October 12th, 2022 at 8:28 am
Go Goedeke you are a beast!!!
October 12th, 2022 at 8:32 am
The O line is playing pretty well IMO. It could be better and it should get better as time goes on. I think the run mauling for this line is coming. But they have to stay healthy to continue advancement.
October 12th, 2022 at 8:33 am
Brady is the master of throwing balls away when under pressure. Live to fight another day.
October 12th, 2022 at 8:36 am
@bucu You are 100% correct. The stats do NOT tell the story. It is Brady that is stopping himself from getting sacked and Hurt. All you have to do is go look at the downfield completions over 20yrds. Brady does not have time to make these throws.
October 12th, 2022 at 8:42 am
Kid will be fine come playoff time
October 12th, 2022 at 8:51 am
Maybe they are the same people that called Cappa hot garage? Saw the “hot garage” comment a lot in Cappa’s rookie year
October 12th, 2022 at 9:12 am
Meanwhile we’re averaging about 25 yards per game rushing. Yep. He’s doing great. 🙄🤡
October 12th, 2022 at 9:25 am
@KentuckyBuc
More like trial by pyroclastics. Cam Heyward, Derrick Brown a week after, and Aaron Donald first game of next month
October 12th, 2022 at 9:37 am
Licht needs to bring in an experienced offensive lineman it’s not to late.
So far the results have been General Manager Malpractice
October 12th, 2022 at 9:44 am
“if he would stop focusing on eating glass and just hone in on the fellah in front of him, everything would be alright”
said ziggy marley 😉
October 12th, 2022 at 10:00 am
Luke needs to get more used to the speed of the game, and get his pad level lower, he’ll be fine. Yeah he loses more then you like, but I did see him finish Grady to the ground on one run play, and Jarrett wasn’t happy about it. He’s got the nasty part down, the rest will come. He certainly isn’t the sole reason our offense hasn’t been lighting it up. Perhaps that will come too.
October 12th, 2022 at 10:02 am
A lot of variables that can skew that stat, Brady’s obvious knowledge to get rid of the ball, fast release to name a few. The man has faced the meat on the opponents Dline and will continue to do so. No excuse for for the run blocking.
October 12th, 2022 at 10:22 am
Our run blocking wasn’t good last year and Luke wasn’t there! We had a Pro Bowler there. He’s a rookie from Central Michigan. Grady Jarrett is one the best DTs in the league. Yeah he was going to loose sometimes on that one. He needs time. Period. Which broken down has been do you want us to get in his place? Just a reminder, Licht is really good at drafting OLs, but getting FAs? Not so good. He’s playing next to 2nd year/virtual rookie at Center. Anybody see what wonders Cappa is doing for Cincy? Give the man time.
October 12th, 2022 at 10:30 am
glass eater or ass eater needs to get stronger
October 12th, 2022 at 10:51 am
So, if anyone was paying attention Grady Jarrett was lined up opposite Goedeke the Majority of the game. The first run of the game on 2’nd down Fournette ran right between Donovan Smith and Luke Goedeke for a big gain and a first down. On that play Smith absolutely mauled his man and Goedeke sealed his defender to the inside. There also was another big run later in the game on the left side that Goedeke threw a great block to spring the runner. Goedeke was expected to be a decent run blocker and everyone knew he might struggle a little bit in pass pro. He has gotten beaten a few times but he always keeps getting better. It helps having Brady back there with such a quick release. Everyone needs to take it easy and by mid season he’s going to be much better, but he is doing a good job now. So cut the kid some slack.
October 12th, 2022 at 11:03 am
Well at least Goedeke has proven that he sucks at run blocking also. There’s that.
October 12th, 2022 at 11:17 am
The sack rate is good, but what about QB hits?
We were ranked #2 and #3 in least QB hits allowed for 2020 and 2021. But we have slipped to #8 already this year. While that’s still fairly good, we do have a 45 year old quarterback. Those hits add up. For proof: see Toms finger, shoulder, etc.
October 12th, 2022 at 11:44 am
I agree Joe, the kid is getting way too much crap and he’s going to keep getting better.
October 12th, 2022 at 11:46 am
If we say enough times, we’ll start to believe it…… the o-line ain’t too bad – the o-line ain’t too bad – the o-line ain’t too bad.
Like putting lip-stick on a pig, “she looks much better now” lol
October 12th, 2022 at 11:51 am
Smith has vastly improved since Brady’s arrival, to this I will acquiesce. However, the early criticisms of his play were more than warranted. In fact, he’s still a liability against speed rushers.
As to Goedeke, he’s a rookie and we should expect growing pains. I don’t feel like the OL in general has played poorly with all the injuries and such. Can they play better? Sure.
October 12th, 2022 at 12:10 pm
Beer Whisperer — got an address for the lipstick pig?!
🙂
October 12th, 2022 at 2:34 pm
Well he’s got a PFF grade of 44 so plenty of room for improvement. We were all spoiled with Ali.
October 12th, 2022 at 2:34 pm
BucU is right A Bucs Fan. Check out the individual grades, realize that Brady is throwing it so bleeping fast so now take some points away for that… and then realiz that if Brady gets hit clean a few more times you can all go drunk Bromosas with Godoeke the rest of the season to soothe the emptiness that is a lost season
October 12th, 2022 at 2:42 pm
and meanwhile this kid gets better every game. he is our 2nd or 3rd string guard–he was likely going after Stinnie and Hainsey but thanx to Jensens knee and Stinnie’s knee-here we are. He learns every day every game. He is cheap which allowed us to get a luxury pick ghost julio.
October 12th, 2022 at 3:03 pm
Teacherman wanted Ed Ingram but honestly that Minnesota line with him has been a train wreck.
I am counting on this season as always that this offensive line coaching staff is way above average.
Joe’s stats seem to support that with three new guys on the O line and we are still above average in all the pass blocking stats.
October 12th, 2022 at 3:13 pm
Anyone know why the Bucs still continue to be vague with Jensons inuury. At this point why? What is the issue with being transparent with a longterm injury. I don’t get it.
October 12th, 2022 at 7:03 pm
To the people saying that Jarrett wasn’t Goedeke’s guy to block, you could be correct and I could be wrong. I don’t know. I do know that Smith blocked somebody, Goedeke did not on the “roughing the passer” play.
October 14th, 2022 at 3:44 am
Joe’s
Please stop with the “Goedeke and Hainsey are fine” BS. And all the stat geek stuff.
Brady is not stat geek sacked, hurried, or knocked down because he is Tom freaking Brady and he knows he doesn’t have as much time in the pocket as he would like. Lefty knows this as well and has had to alter play calling to compensate. Give Brady all the credit not these two!