Bucs’ Odds To Win Super Bowl Drop In Wake Of Ryan Jensen Injury
July 29th, 2022
Injury spooks gamblers.
Little gets past our friends in the desert.
With the news that Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen will miss significant time due to a blown knee late in underwear football practice on Thursday, folks in Vegas have noticed and believe they are acting accordingly.
Per Matt Severence of Sportsline.com, the odds of the Bucs winning the Super Bowl took a hit with Jensen’s injury.
Severence notes the SportsLine Projection Model ran a simulation on the 2022 Bucs both with and without Jensen. You can see the numbers below. As Severance types, this is not good.
Jensen surrendered only two sacks in both the 2021 regular season and playoffs combined and produced a 93.1 percent pass block win rate from the center position — regular season and playoffs combined — the past two years while protecting Brady. Not only did Jensen start all 71 games over the past four seasons — including the playoffs — since signing as an unrestricted free agent in 2018, but he was on the field for 98 percent of the team’s offensive snaps in that span.
Joe is really, really, really not trying to dwell on this, but Joe would like to know when was the last time a team had three brand new interior offensive line starters and won a Super Bowl? In fact, that’s a research project for Joe in the coming days.
Just a brutal boot to the groin for Bucs fans.
July 30th, 2022 at 2:03 am
Pain. Agony. Suffering, if you will. Just terrible news. It just makes me sad for Jensen and the team. I can’t even get excited over seeing the other camp notes and stuff. Just in the back of my head, oh this is great to hear Gage is rocking, but Jensen is probably done for the season. Hopefully when the games play it’ll get better. Just really bummed out, man.
July 30th, 2022 at 2:16 am
Joe, you really, really need to keep focus on this, because the entire season depends on it. Tom Brady cannot be beaten up.
The Stinnie-center space is a gaping target that opposing defensive coordinators are gleefully preparing to attack right now, with everything they’ve got. Aaron Donald brings the entire demon horde through with him.
Can’t have this. They absolutely must sign Tretter, no matter how well Hainsey is learning. Depth of rotation and the quality of that depth is the only solution now, if you don’t have reliable starters to stabilize it. Bring in Tretter to hold it down until Hainsey can be the full starter, or until Jensen fully recovers. Tretter can play tackle, possibly guard also, so he would be great to have around anyway. Stinnie himself might be a problem, he sure hasn’t been consistent. The “cheaper veterans” like Billy Price and Trey Hopkins are iffy propositions that would provide the depth with no certainty.
July 30th, 2022 at 2:18 am
Is he out for the whole season?
July 30th, 2022 at 2:27 am
Hainsey and Leverett are both saying and doing all the right things, and I’m rooting for them. But sweating over the thought that they and Stinnie/Goedeke are the only things between TB12 and hell. Reinforce, or it’s Ragnarok.
,
July 30th, 2022 at 2:50 am
And before we won the super bowl when was the last time a team won a super bowl without a pro bowl corner? I get it, oline over every position but I’m not letting dumb stuff like that ruin the season. Believe in Licht and his ability to find oline talent. LFG.
Nicely done! Joe wrote about that many times, that it was well over a decade since a team won a Super Bowl without a Pro Bowl, or former Pro Bowl, defensive back, before the Bucs did just that in 2020.–Joe
July 30th, 2022 at 3:18 am
We all know Brady (especially) and our entire offense are dependent on a top-tier O-line. And without Marpet and Jensen can we honestly say we have a top-caliber O-line anymore? So yeah, our chances of winning this year have severely gone done, for sure.
That’s not to say that Jensen might not be less hurt than we suspect right now, or the Bucs won’t make some miraculous trade or FA pickup that will drastically bolster our O-line. The Bucs are good at making miracles happen. But Jensen will be extremely hard to replace. So, yup, may be hold off on betting on the Bucs for awhile.
July 30th, 2022 at 3:26 am
I’m right with you Leopold. I was so psyched about Gage, Rachaad, Rudolph, Cade, Julio, etc. I was thinking, damn, Brady is gonna have a field day with his awesome receivers this year. Then BOOM, Jensen goes down, in underwear practice of all things, and the wind got sucked right out of the sails. Now all I can thing about is how vulnerable our O-line is. But that’s Bucs football. It’s a rollercoaster. Constant drama and never a dull moment.
July 30th, 2022 at 4:40 am
The culture has changed …and so should the mindset of some here. HAINSEY & LEVERETT my just need an opportunity to shine, both were her last year so it’s not like they don’t know what’s going on (play book)! After a week in pads I’m sure BRADY will let COACH TB if he is comfortable with his center …put the best 5 on the field and let’s go “Pound The Rock”!
July 30th, 2022 at 5:58 am
Hold ur horses folks. I was impressed last year with a few plays I saw Hainey make that reminded me of Jensen.He may surprise folks as being a diamond in the rough. Let’s see what he can do next week in practice n in a few preseason games. The guy haven’t had the chance to prove himself. Give him the benefit of the doubt. Remember how anticipation mislead folks to think the worst of the likes of former Buc RT Demar Dotson n Marpet n Cappa coming outta Division III schools. Or, how folks doubted Stinnie when he filled in n held his own during playoff n Super Bowl year. Not so fast folks. Let’s revisit this conversation after 2nd preseason game.
July 30th, 2022 at 6:30 am
Not to take a crap on anybody’s Saturday morning, but the Bucs are going to lose more players through the course of the season. It’s the nature of the game. The teams that win are the ones who have depth and can mitigate these losses as much as possible. Stinnie has been rock solid when he has played and Licht NEVER would have traded for Shaq Lawson without TB12 signing off on it.
July 30th, 2022 at 6:33 am
You guys act like jensen is one guy and another guy who has never played meaningful minutes (got in dolphins game cause we were up by 100) will take his spot. And we’ll be fine?
If marpet was here maybe i would feel different
But a new starter at left guard. And sure we got shaq mason to play right guard but he is in a completely new system. Now the guy in between them goes down…the probowler who is one of the leaders of this team. The guy who brings nasty to our oline. This is a huge deal. So three new guys up the gut …trying to stop the straight line to brady. I hope hainsey proves me wrong. Not sure he is ready honestly. And I hope they dont wait to long …cause they are not even in pads. I hope tretter will be patient and not jump to anyone that pays him. Just saying. Saw a pretty good write up on tretter which broke down tape. Sure he battled injuries. But the dude always played on sundays. He is a warrior like jensen. Bucs are all in and i trust licht to make right call …especially when oline involved
July 30th, 2022 at 6:49 am
I’m mildly ok with Hainsey, have NO idea about Leverett
July 30th, 2022 at 7:29 am
Hainsey might match Jensen’s skill but not his mind games. There are things Jensen do on the field that don’t reflect on stats. Opposing coaches hate him.
July 30th, 2022 at 7:35 am
Sure it hurts. But to go from a “Superbowl for sure baby” mentality to a “We are finished… turn out the lights” mentality, is kind of bipolar. Let’s keep plugging away. Every player can and sometimes may be replaced in this league, for as Hainsey said… the injury rate in this league is (eventually) 100%. Now admittedly, losing Jensen hurts, and if anything happened to Brady… almost a total catastrophe. But life goes on,
July 30th, 2022 at 7:39 am
As the motivational speaker said, every setback is an opportunity. Hold your heads-up guys. Sure it stinks. But this team has tons of talent. And Brady still has one of the fastest releases in the game. Onward… Upward.
July 30th, 2022 at 8:33 am
I know this is wishful thinking, but how fast can Marpet get back in football shape? Let him wear the new padded helmets and give him new contract at least left side will get back to normal.
July 30th, 2022 at 8:46 am
I am very worried. Three key blockers Gone! How long will Brady survive? One bad hit to his aging knees and? Lots of dollars spent on skill positions but little invested on the guys who give Brady time to throw. Been saying Bucs were shallow on both D and O lines. Hard to get big time upgrades on short notice. Bucs will be playing with 2nd team blockers for Brady. Gonna have to rely on the short route offense and more running game. The first 4 weeks will reveal what kind of pass protection Brady will have. A spread offense with quick short passes could take the heat off Brady.
July 30th, 2022 at 8:51 am
Bill. I think most all of us are a little worried. I’d bet Todd and Jason in the back of their minds are a little, too. Brady always throws Quick passes. So he, like Aaron Rodgers, can compensate for some line issues from time to time. But for those jumping off the ship… just hang on for your own sake. This team has a ton of talent.
July 30th, 2022 at 10:19 am
Good teams adjust. Losing Jensen is a blow, to be sure… but this is an opportunity. I have faith the Licht knew what he was doing when he drafted Hainsey. And I don’t give a flying sh!t what oddsmakers say.
July 30th, 2022 at 10:34 am
We’re screwed without being kissed. Even with Jensen, the Rams overwhelmed our OL. The Cowboys DL and Dan Quinn are massaging themselves thinking about it.
July 30th, 2022 at 11:11 am
Ali Marpet
4-8 weeks.
We need you buddy.
Gronk too.
July 30th, 2022 at 12:38 pm
That’s good more payout when the Bucs achieve their success for those who pick them.