Getting After The Quarterback
May 23rd, 2022
Replacing Jason Pierre-Paul.
It’s never too early to look at the Week 1 matchup between the Bucs and the Cowboys in Jerry’s World.
Already, the line is Cowboys +3. And this line was a discussion for former NFL suit and coffee fetcher Bill Walsh, Al Davis and Bill Belicheat. That would be Michael Lombardi in a recent “GM Shuffle” podcast.
The key will be the Bucs’ front line on defense, per Lombardi, if both Ndamukong Suh and Jason Pierre-Paul do not re-sign. Those are significant holes to replace.
“Are the Bucs good enough upfront?” Lombardi asked. “They don’t have Suh back. They don’t have Jason Pierre-Paul back. Vita Vea we know is a load. But are they good enough up front to really put some pressure upfront to create a problem for [Dak] Prescott?”
Yeah, Joe understands JPP was a shell of himself last year. So statistically, as far as rushing the passer, JPP is a total non-factor. But that’s because the guy was playing with one arm. He had a torn rotator cuff. How he was able to play with that injury is a mystery and speaks to JPP’s pain tolerance.
So in Joe’s eyes, waving off JPP’s statistical irrelevance is lazy thinking. A healthy JPP adds value. If you want to argue his age is a bad bet, well that’s a different story and a valid argument.
Right now the Bucs will be replacing Suh’s snaps (717) and JPP’s pressures (when healthy) with two guys who have a combined six NFL starts, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and rookie Logan Hall.
Seems to be a whole lotta hope there and you know what Joe thinks of hope.
May 23rd, 2022 at 12:10 pm
Prior to last season, JPP was among the best OLBs in the NFL within a 3-4 defensive front. JPP had the smarts to drop into coverage or seal off the edge against the run. I don’t expect JTS to be at that near that level of processing the game next season. That’s too much to expect.
I hope JPP will consider a one-season “prove it” contract with the Bucs. I’m sure many GMs look at his age and wonder whether that rotator cuff injury was just one of those freak things, or if this is a signal that his body has begun to break down.
May 23rd, 2022 at 12:13 pm
Am I the only one that thinks Anthony Nelson will continue to improve? I feel like he gets overlooked. I’m not saying he’s a Bosa but I think with more playing time he’ll show up even more.
May 23rd, 2022 at 12:22 pm
Wisco yeah I really liked what I saw from Nelson down the stretch last year and hoping he keeps improving. Still does feel we are relying on unproven guys. I do feel relying on aging guys who have injuries aggravated with age is t a great bet either, but prob have to try and stack your deck as much as you can. Not likely to find you t studs out there in free agency we can afford at this point… I’d just worry jpp would perform poorly and keep others off the field. I’d like to see Suh back or Richardson as some suggested
May 23rd, 2022 at 12:26 pm
Bucs ranked 9th in sacks per game in 2021. They were better on the road (2nd) than at home (18th). Not bad stats; although it sure felt like they kept coming up short when it mattered the most. The Rams loss still has a nasty aftertaste in my mouth. Young fresh legs might be just what the doctor ordered. I’m not too worried about replacing Suh & JPP. They both looked like shells of their former selves last year.
May 23rd, 2022 at 12:45 pm
I think Nelson has improved and is a bit underrated.
May 23rd, 2022 at 12:45 pm
Yeah I’m more concerned about replacing Suh. We have starters, but zero depth. Well we have nacho, but him and Vea basically= 1 starter together. Aside from the starters on the dline the rest I don’t even think many of us could name off the top of our heads
May 23rd, 2022 at 12:49 pm
They absolutely have to get one or two good D-line veterans prior to the season!
Really hope they resign Suh!
May 23rd, 2022 at 12:50 pm
That’s the problem Joe JPP will never be healthy. He’s over the hill. Truth be told, he’s been a shell of himself the last 2 seasons. You mention his bad shoulder Joe, but his legs are dead, have been for some time. Our defense will be better without JPP, and Suh. Oh by the way, watch that last pass from Stafford in the playoff game. Suh makes it through the line but can’t close before the pass is made. If he would’ve gotten his hands up. Instead he comes in low to push Stafford down after the pass. Have to wonder if that was Hall with his hands up on that 6′ 6″ frame. Time for youth to be served.
May 23rd, 2022 at 12:59 pm
Smashsquatch … ‘I’m not too worried about replacing Suh & JPP. They both looked like shells of their former selves last year’.
Fascinating position, but founded on what? HOPE that someone else will step up & play like the 2 beasts that Suh & JPP have been for the Bucs for these past 3 years?
We’ve lost Suh, JPP & McLendon this off-season, and replaced all 3 with … rookie Logan Hall. Color me ‘not impressed’, regardless of what Hall manages to do as a rookie. That’s 1571 def snaps lost, and those weren’t ‘cakewalk’ def snaps either; Suh & JPP got the hard ones. The reason opponents didn’t run on us as much as in years past is largely because of those 2 playing the run as well as they do.
Whatever else happens, Bucs NEED another true DT. Vea has shown that he can’t stay on the field for more than 60% def snaps at the most. Suh fills his spot as a DLine anchor pretty effectively; Hall doesn’t have ‘the beef’ to do that, and neither does JTS. Re-sign Suh, then draft the DT in 2023 that we should’ve drafted in 2022.
May 23rd, 2022 at 1:01 pm
The “GRAVEDIGGERS” will be the ones digging our own graves and losing us games.
May 23rd, 2022 at 1:19 pm
For Christ sake, as much as bowles blitzes 9th in the league in sacks isn’t that impressive. I think we can all admit the secondary exceeded expectations during the superbowl run. Licht seems to think injuries were the only problem with the secondary last year. It wasn’t. Hopefully Logan Ryan can provide some stability and leadership to the group, because bowles isn’t going to suddenly stop blitzing half the time.
May 23rd, 2022 at 1:40 pm
JPP and Suh are both 1 of 1. Front office is puffed up and foolish. Team will lose.
May 23rd, 2022 at 1:46 pm
@DR: Nacho is in the mix, too, and I always thought he was an underrated DL. Maybe not Suh in his prime, but still effective.
A Gholston/Vea/Nacho/Hall/Nelson rotation is not perfect, but there is a salary cap to be concerned about.
May 23rd, 2022 at 1:48 pm
Our secondary is fine.
My position on JPP was that his fracture to his neck was a very recoverable injury and that injury should heal with no long-term sequelae. Fractures heal.
On the other hand, a tear to his rotator cuff is much more serious for his continuing career. You are extending your arms/shoulder outward on almost every play. The chance for a DE or OLB to reinjure that tear (wherever it might be on JPP) seems huge.
I would sign JPP only after he fully passed a physical because he is a valuable player for a defense. But it only would be a small amount because the chance for reinjury prior to the end of the season has to be pretty high.
On the other hand, Suh seems like a no brainer signee to me. The health will be there as we all know.
May 23rd, 2022 at 1:50 pm
JPP had 9.5 sacks in 2020, not to shabby
May 23rd, 2022 at 1:55 pm
We are some time before the start of TC……I suspect that we will sign at least 1 vet Dlineman before then.
May 23rd, 2022 at 2:44 pm
@WiscoJoe
I agree. I do not believe Nelson’s growth has been properly recognized. I think Nelson is like Will Gholston. These guys are not stars but they are as I think Dirk used to call them…”glue guys”. They are dependable “good” players.
We have some great players…some very good players…and enough good players to fill in any gaps without losing too much.
May 23rd, 2022 at 2:50 pm
Shaq
Veta
And that’s about it
May 23rd, 2022 at 3:51 pm
Cobraboy … I think Nacho’s a ‘good enough’ fill-in, but I don’t see any improvement on his part personally. Been in the league 7 years now (3 Chiefs; 4 Bucs) and has a GRAND TOTAL of 1.5 sacks (all when he was with the Chiefs), 9 QB Hits (only 5 in his 4 years with us), 9 TFLs (only 4 of those with us), 1 FF & 1 FR, and 99 total combined tackles (half of them solo). Sorry Cobra, but that doesn’t scream ‘Put me in coach; I deserve alot more snaps’. He’s a ‘good enough fill-in’ and that’s about it.
Interestingly Cobraboy, it appears that over the last 2 years Nacho has been the one primarily ‘relieving’ Vea at NT. He got 482 def snaps in 2020, and another 415 def snaps in 2021. When you add those to the number that Vea got (223 in 2020 & 607 in 2021), that that doesn’t even add up to … a season’s worth of snaps for 1 NT, much less for 2. Bucs NEED Suh, or at least someone equally as talented.
May 23rd, 2022 at 4:05 pm
Suh’s age showed last year. He was the lowest rated DL player besides JPP who played through a serious injury. I still think he is valuable from a coaching and mentorship perspective but even if the bucs do sign him I’d like them to sign Sheldon Richardson too.
I also wish JPP could stay healthy because he is such a warrior on the field. No one knows how the shoulder will respond, but I don’t think he is done just because the man has overcome so much adversity in his career. I’m rooting for him to come back and be dominate off the edge again (hopefully for the bucs).
As it stands there isn’t enough money for what Im suggesting so we’ll see how it plays out.
May 23rd, 2022 at 4:07 pm
Nelson and Tryon are the keys. If they have not moved up a notch defensively then..We are in big trouble. Say what you like. But replacing Suh and JPP are not as easy as it sounds.
May 23rd, 2022 at 4:29 pm
SHAQ
I’d like to see Shaq have a big year. 20 sacks.
May 23rd, 2022 at 4:47 pm
New article on NFL has the Bucs ranked #1 for most complete teams in the NFL.
I understand the DESIRE to be better on the D Line, but it sounds like/looks like the Bucs are content.
Obviously every team has holes and according to the writer of this article (Marc Ross) we have fewer than any other team.
I’ll take it and no more freakin excuses.
May 23rd, 2022 at 4:59 pm
Noone else seems to be interested in Suh or JPP at this point, and the season has not started, so why are we going to overpay for their services? They are likely viable options for during the season if we need the juice.
May 23rd, 2022 at 5:02 pm
SlyPirate … I’d LOVE to see Shaq have 20 sacks too, but I’m not holding my breath on that one. He feeds off of opportunities created by other DLinemen, and my gut tells me that those opportunities will be harder & harder to come by this year UNLESS we improve the rest of our DLine.
Bucs defense had 29 TOs & 47 sacks in 2021, 25 TOs & 48 sacks in 2020, and 28 TOs & 47 sacks in 2019. Fairly consistent in all 3 years (when we had Vea, Suh, Shaq & JPP upfront BTW, with Suh being the key addition in 2019 when Bowles took over as our DC). That’s an ‘average’ of about 27 TOs & 47 sacks in that 3-year span.
But look at prior to those 3 years. Bucs defense had 17 TOs & 38 sacks in 2018, 26 TOs & 22 sacks in 2017, 29 TOs & 38 sacks in 2016 (our previous winning season), and 23 TOs & 38 sacks in 2015. That’s an ‘average’ of about 24 TOs & 34 sacks in that 4-year span, a considerably lower ‘average’.
IF we stick with the DLine that we’ve got right now, my guess (and that’s all it is) is that we’ll generate around 5 fewer TOs & at least 10 fewer sacks in 2022. If that guess is correct, that’ll negatively impact our Points Scored & TOP as a minimum, and probably our Wins Total as a by-product. Sign Suh (and adding Richardson would be a nice bonus too BTW).
May 23rd, 2022 at 5:28 pm
We are missing a rotational DT and OLB edge still, the roster isn’t done yet
May 23rd, 2022 at 5:30 pm
Resign JPP and Suh.
This is our last year with Brady, we go all out.
All out.
We have no QB on the horizon, and will suck once Brady leaves.
Take No chances this year
May 23rd, 2022 at 6:11 pm
Im worried about the pass rush. In the last game we played our passrush was irrevelant.
May 23rd, 2022 at 8:36 pm
Are we blaming injuries again? Or taking responsibility for a horrible gameplan. Stafford could see the dumb blitzes coming a mile away. If the bucs aren’t more game plan specific, the defense will suffer the same fate. We do what we do, stop it, doesn’t work against good teams.
May 23rd, 2022 at 8:58 pm
I agree with DefenseRules. We have a problem. If this weren’t Brady’s final SB push season, sure, go youth with Logan Hall and JTS and close your eyes if they fail, reload in the offseason. But it is the final season, with the worst schedule ever, so why hasn’t Licht loaded up the roster as needed?
Both Suh and JPP should have been replaced by veterans but hasn’t happened. If the idea is to go for familiarity despite age and poor health, which appears to be happening, Bucs are waiting for them, and they will suffer down the road when they struggle to get pressure again.
It’s getting to be too late. Best of the remaining edges are going going gone. Jerry Hughes signed with Buffalo. Jadeveon Clowney to Browns. That leaves Justin Houston, Akiem Hicks, Carlos Dunlap, Everson Griffen, Ryan Kerrigan.
At DT, it’s worse. Brandon Williams or Sheldon Richardson would be a solid pickups. Eddie Goldman, L.Ogunjobi are special cases who might do with a change of scenery. Linval Joseph is old but a classic run stuffer. Is Suh better or worse an option than these?
May 23rd, 2022 at 9:05 pm
That’s some nice research DR.
I’m not sold on D Line rushing ability and turnover success ratio.
If IF our defense catches more balls the TOs go way higher these last few years.
Sure it might be from a pass where there was pressure but good CBs and safties are who get turnovers primarily when you aren’t talking about fumbles which we might actually get better at.
I don’t think the transition from more pass rush guys to sub par DBs to less pass rush guys and better DBs is worked into the equation.
At least on my part, I’ll be interested in seeing this year’s numbers against those past 3 years averages.
I think sacks go down and turnovers go up.
And you also have to figure in TDs scored off turnovers to see if less TOP truly equals a Loss in that case?
Fun Stuff
May 23rd, 2022 at 9:12 pm
JPP WAS ONLY PRO BOWL PLAYER ON THE 2020 SB TEAM. HE WAS #59 of the NFL BEST PLAYER ON THE NFL NETWORK HE HAD 9.5 SACKS , HE PLAYED LAST YEAR WITH A TORN ROTATOR CUFF. HE IS A WARRIOR- AND LEADER OD THE DEFENSE. HE NEEDS TO COME BACK WITH TAMPA . TODD B AS COACH NEEDS PLAYERS LIKE JPP.
May 23rd, 2022 at 9:46 pm
BillyBucco … I just used those 2 stats (turnovers & sacks) because they tend to be the most ‘dramatic’ (one stops the drive & the other results in a negative play & also often stops the drive). Could’ve used any number of other categories (QB Hits or whatever) but I was just trying to keep it simple. Besides, those 2 stats intrigue me.
For some reason (no idea why) the years when we had the highest ‘combos’ (of TOs & sacks) seem to have been our best years. Look at the totals: 2021 – 76 (13-4); 2020 – 73 (11-5); 2019 – 75 (7-9 but we would’ve done better if not for Jameis’ record TOs); 2018 – 55 (5-11); 2017 – 48 (5-11); 2016 – 67 (9-7); 2015 – 61 (6-10). I know, it sounds flaky & there shouldn’t be a relationship, but MAYBE there is. Each one of those 2 parameters represents defensive ‘aggressiveness’ to a certain extent, so MAYBE there is some type of a relationship that just isn’t all that obvious.
By the way, go back to our 2002 SB team and our defense that year had 38 takeaways & 43 sacks, for a total of 81. Team record was 12-4. That’s even slightly higher than our 2020 & 2021 teams. Surely it must’ve been a coincidence though.
May 24th, 2022 at 9:57 am
geno711 Says:
May 23rd, 2022 at 1:48 pm
Our secondary is fine.
My position on JPP was that his fracture to his neck was a very recoverable injury and that injury should heal with no long-term sequelae. Fractures heal.
On the other hand, a tear to his rotator cuff is much more serious for his continuing career. You are extending your arms/shoulder outward on almost every play. The chance for a DE or OLB to reinjure that tear (wherever it might be on JPP) seems huge.———-
———————-
Rotator cuff tears are six month recovery injuries with most people going back to being 100% of themselves pre-injury.
May 24th, 2022 at 9:57 am
geno711 Says:
May 23rd, 2022 at 1:48 pm
Our secondary is fine.
My position on JPP was that his fracture to his neck was a very recoverable injury and that injury should heal with no long-term sequelae. Fractures heal.
On the other hand, a tear to his rotator cuff is much more serious for his continuing career. You are extending your arms/shoulder outward on almost every play. The chance for a DE or OLB to reinjure that tear (wherever it might be on JPP) seems huge
———————-
Rotator cuff tears are six month recovery injuries with most people going back to being 100% of themselves pre-injury.
May 24th, 2022 at 10:00 am
Defense Rules
—————-
Did your calculations factor in that the team was playing with a lead far more often 2019-2021 and faced a lot more passing attempts? I didn’t think so.
May 24th, 2022 at 12:21 pm
Brandon … You thought correct. Didn’t include a bazillion other factors other … just turnovers & sacks. Was just looking at things on defense that can influence the outcome of games, and settled on those two as being the most ‘dramatic’ as I said earlier. I’m sure that many others would’ve picked other stats.
To me they’re not really useful ‘predictors’ because football is such a team sport, and team makeup changes considerably year after year. Maybe that’s why it’s so hard to repeat as SB Champion in the NFL.