BSPN Predicting A Bucs Explosion Of Offense
May 17th, 2022
Increase in points?
Last year the Bucs averaged 29.9 points a game. That was second only to Dallas at 30.4. Pretty damn good in Joe’s eyes.
On face value, Joe thinks the Bucs offense will taper off for a couple of reasons, hopefully only modestly.
First, there is no mental patient Antonio Brown. The second is Chris Godwin’s return from his knee surgery is a complete mystery.
Then there is the angle of former Bucs Super Bowl-winning coach Bucco Bruce Arians/new coach Todd Bowles. Joe is confident one reason the Bucs had a high-flying offense was Arians’ personality and approach.
A team often take on the personality its coach. Arians was a pedal-to-the-metal kinda guy and the offense reflected that.
Now Bowles has said he has no plans to change the offense and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich said he’s no-risk-it-no-biscuit just like Arians. Sounds good, but as Bucs assistants hinted last week, a defensive coach running the show means the offense will take on some of that coach’s values by osmosis.
The Bucs offense won’t go back to the prehistoric days of Father Dungy, but Joe would not bet one red cent the Bucs will have a top-two scoring offense.
Seth Walder of BSPN disagrees. He ran some numbers and believes the Bucs will score more this fall. He is scheduled to publish a feature detailing all of this later today. But he gave readers a taste of what to expect last night on Twitter.
2022 Football Power Index ratings and rankings!
The rating itself indicates approximately how much better or worse — in points — that team is predicted to be, relative to an average NFL team on a neutral field.
It is a predictive rating. pic.twitter.com/9oDRKm8nKR
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) May 17, 2022
Now Joe reached out to Walder and asked if the “points” he referenced in the Twitter are season totals or points per game, Walder replied it was points per game.
So if Walder’s numbers are anywhere close to what he predicted, this is going to be one helluva freaky-fun season in 2020.
Miss it yesterday? Enjoy it now. Another can’t-miss Ira Kaufman Podcast!
May 17th, 2022 at 5:48 am
‘Seth Walder of BSPN disagrees. He ran some numbers and believes the Bucs will score more this fall. He is scheduled to publish a feature detailing all of this later today.’
Doesn’t take much searching to find people who’ll tell you what you WANT to hear. More beneficial though finding people willing to tell you what you NEED to hear.
Your instincts were right Joe. Walder’s just telling Bucs’ fans what we’d all rather hear. New coach, tougher schedule, 2 new OLinemen, no Godwin for awhile (and maybe no Gronk), 45-year-old QB, plus a defense with several key question-marks still remaining … all those (and more, like injuries?) will play a role in any Points-Per-Game analysis. Anybody’s guess at this point.
May 17th, 2022 at 5:55 am
so it’s osmosis over offense ?
well then bring high flyin’ BA back into the fold…
or at least in the cut 😉
May 17th, 2022 at 6:30 am
I believe we will need to bust out 30 pts a game to give our defense all the help they can get. Long drives that end in TDs. Keep lighting up the scoreboard n keep our defense off the field is the best way for us to win
May 17th, 2022 at 6:43 am
I’ll take 28 points per game with long drives. Run, Baby, Run!!!!
Let the defense have a part-time job!
Go Bucs!!!
May 17th, 2022 at 6:53 am
Maybe the prediction is predicated on opponent strength and the Bucs having to score more to win.
Last night I threw a half-boiled spaghetti on the wall too!
Being “top” anything is great so long as it comes with the wins. I couldn’t care less (No, I mean it!) if we scored 13 points a game and won. It’s not about points, it’s about wins.
Bowles approach MAY be more conservative than BA’s. We’ll have to wait and see.
May 17th, 2022 at 7:08 am
These morons also said last years Bucs would waltz to a second consecutive super bowl and go 20-0. I pay no attention to such “predictions” which are nothing but extrapolations off of history, which we all no is not a predictor of the future.
May 17th, 2022 at 7:26 am
Average can be deceptive……40 & 20 is 30…..so is 30 & 30….
I think the Bucs offense will be more effective with a stronger running game than last year…….I like our RB room & I think our pickup of S. Mason, Goedeke & the blocking TEs will help.
A strong running game will eat clock & spare the defense…..and don’t sleep on having an effective punter as part of our offense…..
May 17th, 2022 at 7:43 am
Hmm. With all those points, our average time of possession was 30:28
May 17th, 2022 at 7:56 am
I do think the Bucs will be more efficient on Offense – run the ball when its working…go for the 1st down on 3rd and 2…instead of throwing a bomb…Plus as others have said, we flat out will need to score more to win this year….So boring beating bad teams by 30points at home last year…Should be a lot of fun!
May 17th, 2022 at 8:09 am
Can’t believe his model at all. Based upon his model the top teams points per game will be:
Dallas 38.4
Buffalo 37.8
Tampa 37.4
KC 35.8
GB 35.8
Rams 34.8
Chargers 34
I think that is like the 2nd, 3rd and 4th highest points per game and the rest in the top 12 per season. What the heck is he seeing?
May 17th, 2022 at 8:17 am
Never had so many weapons!
May 17th, 2022 at 8:27 am
Average is always misleading. If you stand in ice cubes with one foot and in boiling water with the other foot, the average is around comfortable 100 degrees. But I guess you won’t feel comfortable at all. Just saying ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
May 17th, 2022 at 8:53 am
Sometimes it would be nice if they said you could win the game because of what you average. But you don’t.
May 17th, 2022 at 9:09 am
I believe he is saying 7.4 points per game more than an average team, not our average points per game last year.
May 17th, 2022 at 9:38 am
geno has identified one of the flaws in this dumb model. The d-bag is basically predicting the highest scoring season ever and by a wide margin. Measured by ppg so the extra game is not a factor.
A crock of poo.
May 17th, 2022 at 9:46 am
Not buying it. Bucs will run the ball more this season, which I’m in favor of.
May 17th, 2022 at 10:26 am
Geno, I’m not following your math. His model predicts how many points above/below each team’s average NFL team will score. Last year the average pts per team was 23. With the Bucs, 23 + 7.4 = 30.4. Yes, the model does seem to give the top teams higher pts per game than the top teams last year, but not outrageously so.
I want to see a recap every year of these so-called “experts” and see how their models/predictions stand up.
May 17th, 2022 at 10:44 am
Looking Good Winston! Ha…Stainks go down at 19th. Atlanta last.
May 17th, 2022 at 11:57 am
Cowboys and Packers will fall off. They lost too much.
May 17th, 2022 at 2:43 pm
this whole notion arians was no risk it no biscuit is really overestimated. he was never adept at managing the clock well (unrelated to the philosophy) but so many times in his tenure he didnt go for it on fourth down. he did in the NFC championship game and a couple times this year but if you really go back, we arent at the forefront of going for it on fourth down like other teams that dont have offensive minded coaches.
Also riskier coaches are not necessarily the “offensive” minded ones. that is a fallacy too. listen i love arians but he wasnt this trailblazer of going for it all the time like these coaches now and how everyone says the analytics say to go for it. it is actually the younger coaches doing this. prime examples of this are the bears game in 2020 and panthers (week 2) and giants in 2019. we won panthers game but each time we should have gone for a first down or touchdown to win and run out clock and we didnt. and we ended up losing
May 17th, 2022 at 3:14 pm
We don’t have to have the top scoring offense. Running more effectively, which they have talked about throughout the offseason, will change the time of possession game, reducing opportunity for opposing offenses. Also, with better TOP, our defense is better rested and the opposing offenses will be more prone to risk taking to keep up, meaning more turnover opportunities. Let’s be about winning more with better balance, not just scoring the most points…
May 17th, 2022 at 4:43 pm
StickinUp4Centers Says:
May 17th, 2022 at 10:26 am
Geno, I’m not following your math. His model predicts how many points above/below each team’s average NFL team will score. Last year the average pts per team was 23. With the Bucs, 23 + 7.4 = 30.4
TOTALLY misread it. You are correct!
May 18th, 2022 at 11:48 pm
2020?