The Math Of Trading Down, Acquiring Picks And Dealing 2023 Selections
April 28th, 2022
“Byron, heck, you won’t be here in 2023. How bout I dump next year’s fourth for that running back you want now?”
Joe’s got loads of Big Storm beer ready for tonight’s NFL Draft and can’t wait for the trays of tasty Hooters deliciousness to arrive late-night.
Joe also is prepared for the Bucs to trade down.
Bucs fans can argue about a lot of things, but math is not one of them.
There are only 67 players on the Tampa Bay roster. They’ll need 90 for training camp and the Bucs have just six picks (two of them seventh-rounders) in this year’s draft. More than one month ago, many NFL teams already were at 70-plus rostered players.
The Bucs also are extremely tight on the salary cap if they add Rob Gronkowski. So it’s inevitable that the Bucs will go to training camp with a veteran team and a ton of very raw dudes.
So all that has Joe wondering if general manager Jason Licht will be more inclined than ever to trade down over the next few days to add picks — there’s supposed to be a ton of value in Rounds 3, 4 and 5 — and whether Licht is willing and eager to cough up a future pick or two to land more bodies in the 2022 draft.
All-in for 2022, in Joe’s mind, includes dealing a future draft pick to sweeten the 2022 pot.
Joe would wager a few bucks on Licht making sure he comes out of this draft with at least eight picks.
Beer run!
Always a great weekend when the Bromosa is flowing from @BigStormBrewing pic.twitter.com/XEURMtDFEf— JoeBucsFan (@JoeBucsFan) April 22, 2022
April 28th, 2022 at 10:24 am
Seems likely he’ll trade down a few spots if he thinks that a targeted player will remain available at that acquired spot. It’s a gamble. Will be fun to watch.
April 28th, 2022 at 10:43 am
The two 7th round picks are useless, trade both(w/a swap) to move up higher on day 3 in hopes to get back into the 5th round or better. Our comp pick is the second to last pick, we can get who’d we want at that position on the UDFA market. Hard to project what teams will want to move up, but I’ll be watching how the Jets, Seahawks, & Lions attack the board day 1 with those 3 teams having a combined 8 picks across rounds 1 & 2. We only need 1 fish to bite
April 28th, 2022 at 10:49 am
Normal rule for trading future picks I’ve seen in past years is plus one. If you want a 3rd round pick this year, you need to trade your 2nd round pick for next year. As we expect our next year’s picks to be very low (>this year’s 27), we should be talking with team’s picking in the top 10 of rd 2, 3, 4 to make it worthwhile.
April 28th, 2022 at 11:05 am
I was for trading down at first, while Brady was retired. But once he came back and Lenny came back, it changed the whole picture.
Impact now draftee: Olave or Dotson…..and if theyre not available, DT Wyatt!
April 28th, 2022 at 11:07 am
If someone like Wirfs falls into their laps, do not trade down. One of those things you can’t pick in advance.
April 28th, 2022 at 11:16 am
If zion johnson or dax hill fell to pick 27 I believe I would take them if not trade down, I believe Jordan Davis will be the only DT taken in the 1st round you should be able to get a DT at pick 60.
April 28th, 2022 at 11:28 am
It all depends on who’s available at 27. If one of their top targets looks like he will be available at 27, they’ll grab him, unless the next few teams have no need for that player, in which case he might drop back a few spots. But my guess, he’s either going to stand pat and grab either the best guard or DL available.
April 28th, 2022 at 11:35 am
Trade back, this draft class isnt that good
April 28th, 2022 at 11:43 am
Problem with trading back, someone wants to move up, and this particular draft, players ranked 20-60 are relatively close value wise, there’s about 30 different guys getting mocked at the from 20-40, so trading up doesn’t make sense unless a guy falls
April 28th, 2022 at 11:54 am
I think trading down this year has more to do with the talent in the draft. What Joe said is true, but all the experts say Friday is the honey hole. If licht can get some extra picks, I say go for it. Anyone expecting a game changer outta this draft, will be disappointed. This draft should be about adding quality depth to the roster. The bucs are extremely top heavy.
April 28th, 2022 at 12:18 pm
It’s the NFL draft, gentlemen. Trading up is no guarantee of getting a player who can make a year one impact. There’s a fair share of fairly early first-round guys who won’t make an impact year two, three, four or five.
I view the draft as being like the message in that Tom Hanks movie, Castaway. You just learn to accept whatever the tide brings you. To illustrate, this draft is real thin at “true” round one talent, but really well-stocked in rounds two, three, and four. Those guys might take a little more time, but then the guys at pick #27 might not project to be immediate impact players either. If that’s the case, it makes sense to trade out of the first round and into the second, and pick up a third-round pick. It is placing your roulette chip on more than one number at the table, the math just might work out better that way.
April 28th, 2022 at 12:22 pm
I’m definitely in the trade down group…(Unless the guy the Bucs covet fall to them at #27)… I may not always agree with how Licht uses the picks he gets in deals, but I do trust Licht’s ability to get good pick value/draft capital in return.
Hell, I’d like to see the Bucs trade down twice in the 1st rd & go into Day 2 w/ 4+ picks…But you have to have trade partners & players on the board at that other GM’s/Owners covet more than the Bucs Brass.
April 28th, 2022 at 12:58 pm
If you’re going to trade future picks, it should be for players.
For example, Toney in NY. That’s someone they should target with a mid-round pick, maybe throw in one of the Bucs depth WR’s as well to make it happen.
If you don’t get a guard in the 1st or 2nd, I’d have no issues trading a future pick for a guard on another team that Licht has had his eye on.
Things like that all make sense.
April 28th, 2022 at 1:00 pm
I believe we’re trading up if we’re in win now mode. That is unless Bucs have that much faith that they can get what we need from whomever falls to us.
We can still bring in undrafted prospects or projects. When the time comes to cut the roster down just put this idea in reverse.
April 28th, 2022 at 1:09 pm
Trade Godwin for a quick 20 million.
April 28th, 2022 at 1:35 pm
If team wants to win this season and wants a player whom can produce year 1 they need to take a o linemen or a weapon. As top o linemen and weapons in recent draft can start right away and produce. But it must be a very experienced high production guy. Most defensive players and QBs take years to develop unless you find that top pass rusher whom would produce year 1.
April 28th, 2022 at 1:49 pm
This draft isn’t one to stand pat. Unless the bucs are trading up for Jamison Williams, trade down.
April 28th, 2022 at 3:43 pm
Someone has to want to trade up for us to be able to trade down…. everyone is viewing this draft class as really solid rounds 2-5 and risky in round 1 given draft capital and financial compensation.
It would be amazing if we pick up an additional 3rd or 4th round pick this year from a trade down, but I just don’t see it happening to be honest.
April 28th, 2022 at 5:08 pm
Would be great “if” we could trade next years 1st round pick (plus additional future compensation) to Detroit for their 32nd picks this year.
Then we can potentially make a few power moves at DT,DE or IOL.
April 28th, 2022 at 5:19 pm
So #27 picks around 12:30am, right?
April 28th, 2022 at 6:37 pm
I agree with your base premise, @Joe. Now I will read what other people have to say before, maybe, responding further. (It is 6:36 pm on Thursday evening after all.)
April 28th, 2022 at 6:43 pm
I think they could get CIN several selections later if they trade back. And they could still take the DT out of Yukon later in rd 2.
Definitely never a bad thing to get more picks.
There is some serious value at receiver and RB in rounds 3–5
April 28th, 2022 at 7:10 pm
I hope Licht trades away the entire 2023 draft class, for picks this year.
With Brady- we can win a superBowl.
Once he retires- we will suck again.
Get. The. Ring. Now