Simulations Say Jordan Davis Could Slide Back
April 10th, 2022
Big defensive tackle. Big fall?
For Bucs fans craving a defensive tackle, this mountain of a man from Athens, Ga. will have them drooling.
And if you believe a stat queen who determines everything in football by numbers and not matchups, then the Bucs have a chance to draft beastly Jordan Davis from Georgia at No. 27.
While that seems difficult to believe, NFL Network stats queen Cynthia Frelund ran her computer software and determined (without referencing team needs whatsoever) that Davis should be available in the latter half of the first round.
“So when I look at Jordan Davis, and I look between 15 and 30, I hit that nice little threshold of between 60 and 78 percent,” Frelund claimed in a recent airing of “Path to the Draft” co-hosted by draft analysts Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks.
“So for me, what I see goes on here from the trending patterns from past drafts, all these GMs and decision-makers, 64 percent of simulations, [Davis] ends of between 15 and 30.”
There. Got it?
As soon as she said this, Brooks, somewhat incredulously, immediately replied, “Well, if I’m Tom Brady, I’m making the call. This is the guy you want! Can you imagine having Jordan Davis alongside Vita Vea? And trying to run against that defense? Todd Bowles is the new coach. Defense becomes the priority. Jordan Davis would be a terrific fit in that situation.”
Davis doesn’t always seem mortal. He is 341 pounds yet ran a 40 at 4.7 seconds. Joe would bet there will be cornerbacks drafted that didn’t run faster. And this dude is 6-6, 341!
Dane Brugler of The Athletic in his “The Beast” draft guide, has Davis as his No. 2 defensive tackle.
SUMMARY: A four-year starter at Georgia, Davis lined up at nose tackle in former defensive coordinator Dan Lanning’s 3-4 base scheme. After up-and-down play over his first three seasons, he was the anchor of the Bulldogs’ 2021 National Championship team and recognized with the Chuck Bednarik Award, which goes to the best defensive player in college football. Despite high pad level, Davis is a hard-to-move space-eater with the point of attack strength to reestablish the line of scrimmage and overwhelm ball carriers as a tackler. He is a talented athlete for a player his size and his motor expand his tackling range, but he was also helped by fewer defensive snaps in 2021 (25.2 per game) compared to 2020 (32.9). Overall, Davis offers limited pass rush value, but he has the size, functional power and block ecognition to be a dominant run defender. He projects as a starting NFL nose tackle in multiple fronts.
If somehow this creature falls to No. 27, Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht needs to be all over him.
And Brooks is right. Between Davis at 341 and Vita Vea, good luck running up the middle.
Of course, the likely downside to drafting Davis is Ndamukong Suh is done with the Bucs.
April 10th, 2022 at 12:11 am
lol. Wat?
April 10th, 2022 at 12:21 am
Not holding my breath. But it woukd be nice. Not sure he gets past the Chargers and their inability to stop the run.
April 10th, 2022 at 12:23 am
What a Tease! We all wish. Could you even imagine such a sight as VV and Davis running directly at you at the same time? Could you even imagine that? WOOF!
GO BUCS!
April 10th, 2022 at 12:30 am
The new math stat geeks like Frelund use to make their projections only cause me headaches and head itchiness. (thus scratching). Most NFL GM’s still have an old school tendency to rely on the eye test, and by God Davis passes that test. His combine performance alone will put him easily in the top 20. If the Bucs pick was more middle of the pack they’d have a shot. A better chance we nab his teammate Davonte Wyatt, but even that is iffy. Good chance he is gone by 27 too. He would probably boost the interior pass rush more anyway.
April 10th, 2022 at 12:54 am
just as soon get Suh back–he is durable and never misses snaps and is dynamic still.
April 10th, 2022 at 1:21 am
Now that highlight tape is impressive. Now way someone that big and fast, with good tape, lasts that long.
April 10th, 2022 at 1:59 am
“Davis offers limited pass rush value”. That is the knock on him, and his speed doesn’t make up for that.
Bucs need the next Aaron Donald. Go find him.
April 10th, 2022 at 2:09 am
Devonte Wyatt over Davis all day. Davis is a big body sure but he is a one trick pony. Wyatt is a beast from that same line and honestly was a huge part of getting others home to the qb along with great finishes himself. Davis has been said to be a 2 down DT and weak late game due to getting tired quick. If neither are there then try to make a move in 2nd for Hall or Leal which I would still want either way because they can play inside, outside, and blitz the edge.
April 10th, 2022 at 2:25 am
Looking for draft TEs who can block. Tough. Jeremy Ruckert offers a good balance. There’s film of him pancaking guys. Jalen Wydermeyer is another one, physical freak and good blocker, but raw.
I really wish Gronk were signed so wouldn’t have to think about this
April 10th, 2022 at 2:46 am
Reminds me of Dexter Lawrence who went 17. Both physically dominant players who looked like they should have gotten more snaps on great college lines. Would be very happy to see us get either Georgia DT at 27.
April 10th, 2022 at 2:49 am
We need penetration in the middle. That will help the edge rushers. Adding another run stuffer like Vea is a bit mind boggling in a passing league.
As a QB, I would hate to have the middle of my pocket destroyed since it causes me to roll away from the pressure, giving me only half the field to work with.
April 10th, 2022 at 3:37 am
Na, he’s going top 10-15….
We can get one in the 2nd rd…..we need Olave.
April 10th, 2022 at 3:56 am
No way he falls to us
April 10th, 2022 at 4:03 am
I want BOTH Davis AND Wyatt. Heck if we’re dreaming, DREAM BIG.
And BTW, having 2 mountains (Vea & Davis) only means that we’d effectively have one. Neither one will give us much more than 50% defensive snaps. Much rather have someone like a younger Ndamukong Suh who’s solid against the run AND can stay on the field for a high percentage of snaps.
April 10th, 2022 at 4:12 am
only way bucs get him is to move up…a big upward nosedive…
or send the big guy a pound of cronic and a deluxe bong, and hope he sits out side puffing it on campus all week
April 10th, 2022 at 5:23 am
Instead of drafting a DT, we COULD sign a young DT like Larry Ogunjobi, who’ll be 28 in June & going into his 6th year (1st 4 yrs with Browns, then last season with Bengals). Nice size (6’4″ & 305 lbs) & durability (started all but 1 game each of the past 4 yrs). Seems to play the run well, and has decent pass rush skills.
Compares very favorably with Ndamukong Suh IMO, especially last season with the Bengals.
o Ogunjobi: 16 games – 724 snaps – 49 tackles (29 solo) – 16 QB Hits – 12 TFL
o Suh: 17 games – 717 snaps – 27 tackles (15 solo) – 13 QB Hits – 7 TFL
Ogunjobi is a UFA who was on a 1-year contract with the Bengals last season for $6.2 mil. My guess is that he’s wanting more than that, but not a whole bunch more. Looks like he’d be a good complement to Vita Vea.
April 10th, 2022 at 6:00 am
The Bucs are seemingly allergic to UGA bulldogs, it’s just not a school they draft from. The scouts seem to love Auburn and Washington tho! Maybe this is the year that changes?
April 10th, 2022 at 6:14 am
good research D R ….. cab we send that info Jason Licht
April 10th, 2022 at 7:28 am
You guys do realize that people that win draft kings (gambling) in football/ basketball/ baseball/ soccer/ curling etc etc are a lot of times people (computer nerds) that run stats / simulations based on data they plug into their software. Not saying she passes the eye test for talent cause if she did a draft based on this it would probably be a disaster.
But she is running based on info stated in article . Not justifying her system here but i do remember years ago , during march madness , she had a perfect bracket day 1 of the 16 games played and only missed 1 on the second day of 16 games played. Thats nearly impossible.
But i do not think this guy makes it to us. Someone will take a flyer on his size and combine results alone. Then he played at alabama on top of it so Game over.
For him to drop that far , means multiple teams will have to select one of the crappy qbs and a ton of receivers will have to be a priority for many teams . Receiver is one of deepest in draft along with edge rushers which makes more sense being how much getting pressure on qb is so important in nfl today. Def tackles do not tend to go in first rounds of drafts. patriots obviously took one early second round last year #38 (Barrimore- same alabama) so at least there is a small outside chance. So NO def tackles taken in round 1 last year.
Man that would be a sight if this kid dropped to us. Watch the pocket collapse right on the qbs head
April 10th, 2022 at 7:30 am
Go heavy^^^ in first rounds
April 10th, 2022 at 7:47 am
TBBF ran his projections…..from a very sophisticated secret software system……and it shows that there is a 98.4 % chance Davis will be selected within the first 26 picks..
So, yes…we do have a shot.
April 10th, 2022 at 8:02 am
Blah blah blah…
April 10th, 2022 at 8:50 am
The emphasis on stopping the run is grossly overrated…..Suh and Vea stopped the run just fine and we still got picked apart by offenses. The emphasis throughout the league is passing so a run stuffer adds little value, we’ll still get picked apart due to lack of pass rush. If Bowles would put pressure up the middle with this guy and Vea, then yeah….that makes sense. But from what we’ve seen of Bowles defense, he likes the pressure to come from the edge or on blitzes. Vea alone demands a double team, which means Suh, who is very capable of beating a 1 on 1, could have been used to get after the QBs. Maybe if we’re looking at switching to a 4-3…then those two would be pretty dynamic but I dont see Bowles doing that either.
Honestly I dont see Bowles and his defense doing much without Brady providing comfortable leads on a silver platter. Bowles entire philosophy is built around the offense applying constant pressure via their ability to score….much like the Chiefs, they are built to defend with a lead, not shut anyone down. When i think of defensive genius….the Saints and HC Allen come to mind. That’s a team that played everyone tough and stayed in the hunt due to their defensive schemes. Bowles defense rarely shows that ability.
April 10th, 2022 at 9:00 am
With Tampa draft luck he’ll get picked at 26🤦🏾♂️
April 10th, 2022 at 9:17 am
Dream on. Davis is a fantasy pick at 27. Unicorns and rainbows.
April 10th, 2022 at 10:03 am
Cynthia Frelund is great eye candy, no debate there. But her made-up, fraudulent numbers have zero worth and are laughable. Let’s keep it real. The NFL network is not stupid. They know keeping someone like Cynthia on display is good for ratings with it’s mostly male audience. And don’t get me wrong, I’m not complaining. But……..who can’t see right through the charade they put on trying to make her look intelligent by wearing the professor glasses and by trying to make her out to be the next Albert Einstein with these manufactured numbers. So the moral of the story here is when it comes to Cynthia Frelund let’s all enjoy the view but let’s not be quoting her as if she’s dropping some serious knowledge on us. And Cynthia please lose the glasses.
April 10th, 2022 at 10:03 am
I don’t think he will fall to the Bucs, but maybe he will fall just enough for them to trade up? Maybe give up their 1st and 3rd?
April 10th, 2022 at 10:10 am
95 > 99
Watch the tape. Wyatt is the better player. This dude is a run stuffer with combine numbers. That’s it. He doesn’t pats rush at all. We already stop the run. How does he help pass rush? Listen I’m fine if the Bucs draft him, but let’s not act like Vita isn’t already a better player than him in that exact same mold.
April 10th, 2022 at 10:32 am
I am somehow Jones’ n for a TE there are several that are intriguing at different price points
Dulcich and Likely
The UVA monster looks stiff
April 10th, 2022 at 10:58 am
If Davis isn’t selected by the Vikings at 12 or Chargers at 17, the Pat’s take him as their anchor at 21 like Vince Worfolk. I believe I would rather take Wyatt.
April 10th, 2022 at 11:20 am
A running back isn’t what killed us on 60 yards in two plays in the playoffs. Stopping the run has never meant for us what so many try to make it out to be because we can’t stop or even slow down the pass. We need someone who can force teams to run and make them earn every yard they get not the gift wrap our secondary likes to hand out!
April 10th, 2022 at 11:40 am
The nose knows I agree with Frelund Davis slides down because of being a rotational player. Its ok from Suh hes 35 not ok for a rookie thats a first rounder. Defensive Rules Larry O. failed his physical with the Bears thats not a good sign.
April 10th, 2022 at 11:48 am
Allbuccedup … Hadn’t heard that. Any reason given why he failed?
April 10th, 2022 at 12:01 pm
“Well, if I’m Tom Brady, I’m making the call.”
So, Bucky Brooks thinks Brady runs our draft?
April 10th, 2022 at 12:05 pm
Travis Jones
April 10th, 2022 at 12:18 pm
No Defense Rules no specific reason given. It might be worth making him an offer with imcentives if he passes the Bucs physical. According to Antonio Brown he should breeze past the Bucs physical. HaHaHa
April 10th, 2022 at 12:47 pm
@steele
“Bucs need the next Aaron Donald. Go find him.”
I suspect everybody here agrees with you Steele. The only problem I see…and while this word is so overused it fits here..Donald is a “generational” player. They are not available in very many drafts. He’s a freak! Like you I’d love to find a freak as well I just don’t see one in this year’s draft or for that matter anywhere else in the NFL.
He stopped JJ Watt’s 3 year run with a 3 year run of his own for D MVP,
Mean Joe Greene and Mike Singletary only had two.
April 10th, 2022 at 1:41 pm
His floor is probably pick 21.
April 10th, 2022 at 1:48 pm
@Defense Rules
The Bears and Ogandjobi had agreed to a 3 year – $40 million contract, but he failed their physical.
I’m not sure what the medical was, but I’m guessing if he clears a physical at some point he will probably have to take another 1 year prove it contract, just not sure you’ll get him for much less than $9 -10 million.
April 10th, 2022 at 2:33 pm
Forget about Davis-He is a once in a lifetime FREAK at 6*7 341 and runs a 4.8. Davis will be long gone unless Bucs move up.
April 10th, 2022 at 3:59 pm
Allbuccedup & gotbbucs … Appreciate the info on Ogunjobi. Most of the FAs DTs are too old to be worth considering (except as stop-gaps), but he’s probably got 5-6 years left in him. I was impressed with what he did earlier in the season, but he must’ve been hurt or something for the end-of-season & playoffs (only made it into 1 game in last 6 or 7 of Bengals’ games; was on IR for last regular season game). Prior to that period, he’d been very healthy his whole career.
April 10th, 2022 at 7:26 pm
It’s like any model, if you don’t know the assumptions or the model itself, then the results are useless.
I have no confidence in Frelund’s model-buulding skills.
April 10th, 2022 at 7:29 pm
Would not be mad if the bucs moved up to get this guy. Putting him next to Vea would give teams all kinds of issues. I’d prefer moving up for sauce or stingley though. Let’s hope the bucs get aggressive in the draft this year.
April 10th, 2022 at 9:49 pm
A great American humorist once said “There are lies! There are damned lies!! and then there are statistics!!! Frelunds model reminds me of that tome
April 11th, 2022 at 12:51 am
I’ve been saying that since the middle of last college football season. He is poised to be a stud in the NFL, even more than he was in college. For some reason he’s always been slated for mid to late first round, some even had an early second round.
He’s going to be within reach. I would love for the Buccaneers to be able to grab him. Having him with Vea, they would take up a minimum of 3 but possibly 4 O lineman half the plays. Shaq and JTS and the linebackers would flourish
April 11th, 2022 at 8:14 am
I have been saying along we need to get younger on the D-Line. Would be great if he fell to #27 but don’t see it happening. Bucs will need to move up to get him. He is a difference maker on the line for sure with Vea.
April 11th, 2022 at 12:19 pm
26 players will be taken before Tampa picks. 3 will likely be QBs, QBs will always be overdrafted because of the need and value of the position. 1 will be Aiden Hutchinson at no1 or no2 overall depending on a trade. so that leaves 22 other players whom will be drafted before Tampa. There is three edge, three OT going before 27, and likely 2 WR or 3 WR. So that leaves 13 other players taken before Tampa draft pick is inputted. one or two CBs, maybe a 4th WR or one Guard, one safety, and maybe a TE or LB. The modern NFL values weapons and QB the most followed by edge and OT. So edge, WR OT and QB will drafted early and often.
April 14th, 2022 at 2:08 pm
You guys keep talking about stopping the run isn’t the problem like that is all him and vita will be able to do having those two next to each other would be nightmares for qbs and olines because you at minimum have to double them both which allows linebackers and other blitzes the ability to get in easier not to mention with those combine numbers I’m willing to bet our coaches will be able to get him to get to to the qb also he had problems staying on the field when he was 360 he has worked hard to lose twenty pounds to be able to stay out on the field but anyway it’s Jameson Williams from Alabama or this kid all the way I would find a way to get whichever we could