Will The Coaching Change Cost The Bucs Wins?
April 8th, 2022
New Bucs head coach Todd Bowles.
If Tom Brady departed Tampa, Bucs fans inevitably would say some form of, “Damn, that’ll cost us three regular season wins with X as our new quarterback.” Some would have gone there to a degree if Todd Bowles left for a head coaching gig in January.
But what about Bucco Bruce Arians?
This was a subject on the recent Ira Kaufman Podcast (two more episodes recorded last night and coming this week.)
Sage JoeBucsFan.com columnist Ira Kaufman agreed with the premise that the transition from Arians to Bowles equates to two additional losses for the Bucs. So in Ira’s mind, the Bucs just went from a 13- or 14-win team with Arians to an 11- or 12-win team with Bowles. (One Joe agreed with Ira and the other said the coaching change would cost the Bucs one win rather than two.)
Joe has find an unhealthy percentage of fans believing that the loss of Arians is no big deal and/or that Bowles is a better head coach.
It’s a thought-provoking subject.
Part of being a head coach is hiring and building a staff, and Bowles doesn’t have to do that for 2022. He has an experienced Super Bowl-winning staff trained or mentored by Arians. Also, the head coach has a hand in free agency, and most of that duty was completed by the time Bowles got the job, though it seems Bowles’ influence was felt quickly in the exciting Keanu Neal signing.
For Joe, it’s just too easy to wave a magic wand and say losing the head coach who retired while on a 22-5 run won’t cause a hiccup.
Joe wants to know what Bucs fans think.
April 8th, 2022 at 6:22 am
Arians was only worth two more wins than Koetter. I don’t think we’ll lose much without him
April 8th, 2022 at 6:23 am
The loss of Arians will definitely hurt but it’s hard to compare last year’s schedule and this years. We will have a drop off for sure in the win column. But overall I’m not sure I can say this years team won’t be better than last years. Bowels certainly has the respect of his players. It all hinges on the trenches and Brady’s health.
April 8th, 2022 at 6:28 am
we’re looking at more of an 11-5 type season…
others in the division will be lucky to grab 9 wangs at most…
double digit wins should secure the nfc south title
April 8th, 2022 at 6:34 am
Bowles decision making (aka Rams) will cost us two or three wins and send Brady back to retirement
April 8th, 2022 at 6:45 am
gonna get real interesting when the rams come into ray jay this year
April 8th, 2022 at 7:11 am
Arians will still be around this year and perhaps longer to help – let’s see if that can make a difference
April 8th, 2022 at 7:21 am
This will be a disaster by year 2 … Brady’s new toy will fade quickly with a few losses and lack of leadership in those situations under the Bowles Leadership !!
April 8th, 2022 at 7:24 am
I wonder what Proud Buc thinks?……List?
I don’t think the coaching change will make a difference…..I believe we will have two more lasses than last year because of our schedule…..& go 11-6
April 8th, 2022 at 7:40 am
Tampabaybucfan is right about the schedule being more difficult. And if Bowles will be stretch being the head coach and play caller. Bruce Arrogance only had to be part time head coach and sober up each day.
April 8th, 2022 at 7:46 am
Just win the division, secure a bye. Get to the playoffs healthy and this tough schedule will have only made us more equipped to get that championship!
Oh, and don’t all out blitz leaving superstar WR open down the middle.
April 8th, 2022 at 7:49 am
It will be the players that ultimately determine how many wins there are, not Bowles. There was much wrong with the Rams game long before “the blitz.”
April 8th, 2022 at 8:09 am
I think Bowles’ has a great opportunity with all the weapons at his disposal to have a great season. In my opinion It doesn’t matter who you are at coach. I think it all depends on your coaching abilities, decision making, ,how you treat your players and what you do with the players you have for a winning season and a Superbowl run. Go BUCS.
April 8th, 2022 at 8:13 am
Trick question IMO
If we stay healthy all year long as we did in 2020, can we say that our numbers of victories will be only a reflection of Todd Bowles coaching?
April 8th, 2022 at 8:37 am
Proud!!!!!!
Do you miss your exclamation points!!!!!!! Lol
April 8th, 2022 at 8:38 am
With all due respect, I don’t think Arians did a lot of the day to day coaching anyway. So, I don’t think we see any difference.
April 8th, 2022 at 8:41 am
Well here’s a couple things to remember. For starters we have tougher seasons every year now. So everything harder right. Always will be. Another thing is this we have the GOAT TB12 on the team running the show so not losing much because this offense is his. This team is his and wouldn’t be shocked if he bought the Buccaneers one day. So my point here is that expect naturally with Arians or without him we have a harder time because harder schedule. I don’t doubt though we could have the best team in the league if healthy. Just depends on the draft and if SUH and Gronk come back. Also do we get a younger pass catching RB. Timeouts, challenges , discipline and speaking up to the refs is something he needs to be better out be a bigger voice seems kinda quiet during interviews not scared to talk or say the truth. For the most part he don’t have to do much. Just be careful speaking during interviews. I’d let the team speak for him. The rest comes easy.
April 8th, 2022 at 8:54 am
Yeah I think Joe said the loss of Bruce is more significant than anything that happened this year- and said that would translate to 2 additional losses.
We’d have a lot more losses without Brady, so losing Brady is clearly worse.
Hopefully this is a good launch for Bowles. Year 2/3 looked to be challenging no matter what (salary cap/losing brady/arians), but going into those years with an ascending coach with some confidence could be a benefit.
April 8th, 2022 at 9:03 am
If the win-loss record is not the same, I am not sure it will be directly related to Bowles or Arians. The Bucs schedule is much more difficult this year and injuries could also play a big role in the final record.
April 8th, 2022 at 9:21 am
What came to my mind when Bowles was hired was the play call in the NFC Championship game in ’20 at the end of the first half. The TD pass to Scotty Miller from Brady. That is a BA kind of call. Not a lot of coaches call that play. That call hugely contributed to our win and going to the SB.
Does Bowles make the ballsy call?
April 8th, 2022 at 9:23 am
The Bucs have a much more difficult this season than last so i predict 1 or 2 less wins because of that. Even if Arians were there, I still feel they would win like 11 or 12 games instead of 13. So the big difference to me is strength of schedule, not coaching change.
April 8th, 2022 at 9:33 am
Schedule is pretty brutal this year, but that’s based off last years records of course and could become easier than it looks rn
I think Bowles will be a nice change, it’s going to make us less predictable and likely more disciplined. Arians is absolutely a giant paradox and that has advantages and disadvantages.
I’d expect to see some new wrinkles in the offense, more outside runs and jet sweeps and motions off of that
April 8th, 2022 at 9:50 am
Bowels should have been fired, not promoted. I don’t understand this at all.
April 8th, 2022 at 9:51 am
No. The Buccaneers most likely will become a super team. I believe that they will become a more disciplined and beastly team, a bruiser of a team. Arians is a retired man who had one last fling in football. Todd is a man of discipline. Go Bucs
April 8th, 2022 at 9:54 am
It won’t cost anything this season. Brady will just ignore him and do what he does. If Brady does, really resign after this season it might cost a game or two for Trask, who won’t have Brady’s clout.
That might all be offset by some of the advances in the defensive backfield. Not two more games won, but to less games lost; big difference.
April 8th, 2022 at 9:54 am
As several have already noted, our schedule is considerably tougher this year than last. For that reason alone, it’s unfair to compare HCs (maybe BA would’ve ended with a 11 win season this year just based on strength of schedule?).
Beyond that though, MAYBE our offense will be even more prolific if Coach Bowles keeps hands-off (which I think he’ll pretty much do). And IF that becomes the case, MAYBE we’ll do a better job of starting faster. controlling the clock better, and MAYBE even score more points in the process. All 3 of those MIGHT make it easier on our defense (ie, playing from ahead instead of behind, less time on the field, etc).
April 8th, 2022 at 9:59 am
Bruce is still in the building… he will have input
April 8th, 2022 at 10:00 am
All the same coaches are on the team, except BA, BA acknowledged he didn’t interfere at all in offence and defensive planning, he was mostly face for the team in media and just a key situation caller during the game. He also was directly involved in personnel work.
Why didn’t Tom, the owners, or star players fight to retain BA? If a series of older stars and a QB whom his entire theme for 2022 is “unfinished business” want a SB now, why weaken the team with a coach whom was viewed as a bridge HC at best?
The schedule is harder and the team doesn’t have a good pass rush, Godwin hurt, no AB Gronk or a true TE1, so at this point the team is worse than 2021 Tampa.
It is 2 weapons short and a pass rusher.
April 8th, 2022 at 10:20 am
The main thing that will cost the Bucs wins next season is that brutally tough schedule.
Plus having to play a home game in Germany
April 8th, 2022 at 10:22 am
I had a front row seat last time Todd was a HC. He seemed over his head when it came to making quick decisions, and had particular trouble end of half managing clock and time outs. Maybe he learned from it. Hopefully we surround him with someone who can help manage this aspect of the game. Pay attention to this.
April 8th, 2022 at 10:24 am
Bowles will be fine.
Tough schedule, tougher coach.
April 8th, 2022 at 10:27 am
17 games is a lot of situations and opportunity to screw something up…
I say coaching change will bring Bucs 3 more loses…
tough schedule mean likely more close games where time management and challenges count more and Arians experience of Bowles will show in those areas…
April 8th, 2022 at 10:32 am
Arians was able to delegate coaching responsibilities to his coordinators because he hired such a great staff. It seems Arians took a step back last year and allowed his coordinators to do their respective jobs. The area Arians focused on was motivating and dealing with the strong personalities in the locker room.
Also stop acting like Arians just walked away. He works In the front office. I’m sure if a player or coach wants to solicit advice Arians office door is open.
April 8th, 2022 at 10:42 am
I think Bowles will prepare the team better than Arians did. But with a tougher schedule I’m not sure he will win more.
There is only one win that matters anyway!
April 8th, 2022 at 10:44 am
I’m not sure Bowles is the answer but it could’ve been worse. Having Leftwitch as HC. BA can talk him up as much as he wants, but I don’t think he’s even a good OC. TB should call his own plays. He’s forgotten more than Lefty will ever know.
April 8th, 2022 at 10:47 am
It’s obviously going to make a huge difference … I just hope leftwitch doesn’t capitulate to Brady … He’s the coordinator and I don’t mind him and Brady making the plan obviously but Brady can’t see the field like the coaches do on the sidelines … So leftwitch has to make sure and keep Brady in check and not let him lead the team … There’s a reason coaches coach and players play
April 8th, 2022 at 10:51 am
westernbuc Says
“Arians was only worth two more wins than Koetter. I don’t think we’ll lose much without him”
Now that is funky math.
April 8th, 2022 at 10:53 am
My answer? I don’t know. No one does and no one will until the season plays out. Anyone saying otherwise is lying.
April 8th, 2022 at 10:59 am
How could BA have made the call for the Scotty Miller TD bomb at GB when THE MASTERMIND BL is supposedly making all the calls?
I don’t see a drop off with Bowles at all as long as Brady stays healthy and continues to be a field general we’ll be fine.
April 8th, 2022 at 11:08 am
Nahhh, the coaching change will not cost us wins. But if we don’t fix our sorry a.. Defense? Thats gonna cost us quite a few. Brady can and will come thru on a lot of games. But you gotta be able to stop somebody in this league to win a SB. The Rams ran up and down the field on us like we did not even have a Defense. Keep neglecting the D. Its gonna cost us bigtime.
April 8th, 2022 at 11:09 am
I think the better question is if Todd Bowles should still be calling plays for the defense as head coach. Can he bury his nose in the defenses play book to pick the next play. And still pay enough attention to manage the game as a head coach. Can he pay enough attention to make half time adjustments if he’s worrying about what play he’ll call next. Can he manage the clock. Handle a difficult conflict with a player. And so on. It’s probably way harder for a head coach who’s also calling the offense than a head coach calling the defense. But I remember Gruden sometimes seemed hurried. The offense would be in the huddle waiting for him to call the play. Brad Johnson would be looking at the sideline like hey we need a play here.
April 8th, 2022 at 11:51 am
I don’t understand the negativity over BA. You people HAVE to be kidding!
Just pause for a moment and look at the progression. If BA isn’t hired…
Secondly, the foundation was laid for the future by BA hiring competent coaches throughout. You can complain all you want about the piddly-wink details but look at the record.
Lastly, I expect Bowles to pick up where BA left off. This is still a formidable team with good coaches and great players. I don’t expect ANY drop off and I don’t believe in “strength of schedule” arguments either. Every team changes in the off-season.
April 8th, 2022 at 12:04 pm
According to JOEBUCSFAN
Tom Brady= 3 WINS
BA= 2 WINS
So, losing Tom Brady INSTEAD of BA would only cost the Bucs 1 WIN.
This is the dumbest article I’ve ever seen on JOEBUCSFAN.
April 8th, 2022 at 12:11 pm
Let me set the record straight.
Losing Tom Brady will cost this team 8-9 wins per season.
Losing the laziest coach in Bucs history who hasn’t had an impact since establishing the coaching staff will cost the team 0 wins.
Tom Brady > BA by a lot. Why is this hard?
Patriot fans did this to Brady. How’s it going in New England? Unbelievable…
April 8th, 2022 at 12:59 pm
Arians was already practically a consultant last season doubt much changes at all the record would only change because the schedule is tougher so the record was going to change even if he wouldn’t have retired.
April 8th, 2022 at 1:31 pm
Arians is retired.
After him running his trap…who cares?
DUde is gonzo and is pissed that Brady got him booted.
April 8th, 2022 at 1:33 pm
More like will this defense be good defending the pass?
April 8th, 2022 at 1:47 pm
From the point in which Tom took more control over the offense after the Cheifs loss in 2020, the team when 8 for 8 in 2020, and 14-5 in 2021. Brady when controlling the offense Tampa is 22-5 with 2 losses to Rams, 2 Saints and one to Wash.
April 8th, 2022 at 1:47 pm
Bonzai,
Koetter’s last year with Jameis 5-11
Arian’s first year with Jameis 7-9
Greatest QB in history shows up and the rest is history. Without Brady, Arians is a below .500 coach with the Bucs. I don’t think that’s fuzzy at all. Brady is the X-factor
April 8th, 2022 at 2:08 pm
I missed the poll, but I’d say this year we lose two more games, due primarily to the more difficult schedule. Not the loss of the head coach.
April 8th, 2022 at 3:39 pm
BA will be upstairs and/or riding around in his golf cart razzing players and answering questions if asked.
How is it really that much different?
Much ado about nothing.
April 8th, 2022 at 4:01 pm
either head coach, we’re pretty much looking at an 11 win season…
12-5 or better would be a pretty wild achievement with the appointed schedule
April 8th, 2022 at 4:15 pm
TB12 deserves all the credit in the world. His record speaks for itself. HOWEVER, Tampa Bay was the #3 offense in 2019 BEFORE Brady arrived, #3 in 2020, and #2 last year.
There is a common denominator in all three years. Sorry, but this is fact.
You HAVE to give credit where due. It was NOT ALL Brady.
April 8th, 2022 at 5:26 pm
Take Brady away from this team and you have a top ten maybe top five draft pick. There is a reason Bowles and Lefty did not get a head coaching gig.
April 8th, 2022 at 5:26 pm
Well said WesternBuc.
April 8th, 2022 at 8:18 pm
Bucsfanman if you want to talk about how great our 7-9 offense was then the credit goes to our offensive coordinator. This is an article about wins. Arians has shown that he alone is not worth more wins, at least of any significance.
April 8th, 2022 at 8:22 pm
It’s all Brady.
Geez…these coordinators are so good they can’t get a HC gig.
GMAFB
April 8th, 2022 at 9:06 pm
It couldn’t get much worse. BA did nothing.
April 8th, 2022 at 9:42 pm
Let’s get a few things straight. First, BAs offense was tossed aside. Brady essentially installed the offense he’s played in his whole pro career. If anyone disagrees with this, you’re living in BAs liquor cabinet. Some here like to point to the Superbowl win as validation that BA was a great coach. This is inane. The bucs had a complete wagon on both sides of the ball, while overachieving in the secondary. Add the covid stuff on top, and the fact that the bucs won three straight road playoff games without fans. Luck is always involved whenever teams win, but this was a perfect storm. Barry Switzer also won a Superbowl, and nobody confuses him with a good coach.
Bowles is supposed to be no nonsense, and all about football. This is exactly what Brady wants. He wouldn’t have signed on otherwise.
April 8th, 2022 at 10:10 pm
GOB throwing down truth
April 8th, 2022 at 10:22 pm
A Lil GOB is good for you, at least that’s what my ex wife says
April 8th, 2022 at 10:28 pm
If we can stay healthier this year we might win an extra game or two over last year’s total. Arians says he will still be deeply involved so I don’t see our win total being affected by him not being on the sidelines.
April 9th, 2022 at 7:24 am
I recently watched an interview that Bruce gave to some radio guy. Apparently, the guy is on some media tour hell bent on providing that clown Florio clicks and engagement. Could BA maybe just shut up and golf. His act is getting real tired. Bruce goes on to say in the interview that he gave his provided his input on a couple of things regarding the offensive game plan for the week, but added that he never took a “red pen” to any of the game plan. Matter of fact, he said Brady would take things out that he didn’t like or feel comfortable with. Bruce said that’s how it always worked with him and his QBs. Bruce also quipped that he doesn’t even own a red pen. So this got me thinking back to that report by Rich ohrnberger where he said that Brady and Leftwich would work on the game plan all week and that BA would take a red pen to it and they felt Bruce wouldn’t put the work in, but came in and undermined their game plan.
I initially took this report with a grain of salt. Rich is the guy who reported on the same day that Mahomes instructed his then fiancé and brother not to attend anymore games. It was total misinformation and he has to retract the report. He lost credibility with me, and what would a radio host in San Diego know about the going ons of a Tampa and KC football team. Sure, he was a “former teammate” of Brady many years ago. I highly doubt Brady could even identify him in a lineup let alone talk to him about game plans. Brady also keeps a notorious small circle. I did a little digging and it comes to find out that Rich and AQ Shipley are best friends from college. Shipley served as an offensive assistant to the team last year.
I did a little further digging and unearthed an interview that AQ gave on the Doug Gottleib Show after the SB win. He was asked about what made Brady so special, and he went on this long rant about Brady’s notorious great work ethic and fierce competitiveness. He added that as soon as Brady got the game plan on Tuesday he would work all week on it add some of his own intricacies to the plan and that he would sometimes work up until the day of the game trying to perfect it. He would also hold meetings with the skill guys and OL all week up until Saturday nights just to make sure everyone was on the same page. Having listened to this interview, it sure seems plausible that AQ told his buddy Rich that Brady and Leftwich were putting in all the hard work during the week, and that BA would saunter in after a week on the golf cart and nix some of their plans. It’s his right as HC, but it’s not a good look. I think Rich added the whole red pen thing to add flair and drama to his report, but you kinda get the gist.
Even with all of this alleged drama, I, in no way, believe Brady retired because of BA or that he forced BA into retirement. It’s entirely ok to believe that Brady the most detailed and well planned guy in football would tire of BA’s loose style and abrasiveness, BUT also believe that’s not the reason he retired or pressured the owners to kick Bruce to the front office. The AQ interview is from 2/12/21 on the Doug Gottleib show. I highly recommend you listen to it. It’s available on Apple podcast
April 9th, 2022 at 7:52 am
@Bucsfan23. Yes, the offense was great. It’s a high volume offense. The no risk no biscuit is also an archaic, inefficient concept that no other team is running. It’s totally dependent on the WR beating his man. Little scheming at all. That’s why we were exposed when we lost our great receivers. Having a great offense didn’t exactly push the team over the top during those years. Brady brought his experience, high football IQ, and unmatched intangibles. That cannot be overstated. One of the big reasons scouts fail on QB evaluations is that never can correctly judge the QBs intangibles. Brady elevated the level of his teammates. Just ask them! This isn’t me just speculating. This was also true in NE. LeSean McCoy once said if Brady told the team that they could walk on water they would believe him. Also, the owners don’t want just an offensive coordinator as their HC. They want a high character guy with great leadership skills. BA going out of his way to push up Leftwich while punching down at Brady does Byron no favors. First of all, it’s totally unnecessary. Bill O’Brien and Josh McDaniels both got coaching gigs as Brady’s OC. I’ll also add in Charlie Weiss. Brady’s perceived outsized credit that BA seems to think he gets sure didn’t hinder their ability to get jobs. Owners don’t give a damn about credit. BA should be speaking more about what professional skills Leftwich brings to the table. When Brady is asked about Leftwich, he is effusive in his praise of Letfwich’s professionalism and character while also noting the positives Leftwich brings to the offense. I don’t know why, but BA is obviously very insecure when it comes to Brady. It’s bizarre.
April 9th, 2022 at 2:53 pm
I believe the Bucs left 2 games on the field last season because of BA’s lax a daisy coaching. Tom was frustrated by it and is the reason he wanted BA out. I can see where Tom gets a peace of the Bucs and stays for a couple more seasons if he gets his needs met.
April 12th, 2022 at 12:43 am
Fir those that think BA was a good coach. Remember he is not completely gone. He will still be with the Bucs in 2022, “helping them win” from the front office.