The Bucs Are Old (But How Old?)
April 6th, 2022
NFL’s senior citizens.
The Bucs, if you use a certain formula, are the oldest team in the NFL.
And yeah, it’s easy to pick out why: They’ll have a 45-year old quarterback when the season kicks off.
Joe’s friends over at Football Outsiders have a formula that combines age with snaps played. You can read about that here. In the simplest terms, a guy can be old but if he played limited snaps, he’s not that football old as his body hasn’t dealt with as much of the brutal punishment the NFL dishes out.
For example, Bucs backup quarterback Ryan Griffin is 32, but he has only played a handful of snaps in his career. Therefore in football age, he’s younger than veterans like, say, Lavonte David, who is also 32 but has started since his first game as a rookie.
Bryan Knowles offers the breakdown of the Bucs’ silver years.
It’s not like the rest of the Tampa Bay team were spring chickens last season or anything, but remove all quarterbacks from SWA and the Buccaneers would fall to eighth oldest in the league. Brady by himself increases Tampa’s SWA by 0.6 years; that alone is more than the difference between the first-place Buccaneers and the fifth-place Titans. On offense, Brady increases Tampa Bay’s SWA by 1.5 years; that’s more than the difference between the first-place Buccaneers and the eighth-place Texans. We have never seen anything quite like this. At 44 years old, Brady was the oldest player in NFL history to start double-digit games. He broke the previous record, set by Tom Brady, which itself broke the previous record, tied by Tom Brady. There have been 23 fortysomethings who have started double-digit games; five of them have been named Tom Brady. And now he’s coming back, and we’ll likely have this same conversation next year, and the year after that, and the year after that, until either Brady or the planet Earth crumbles into dust. Sportsbooks have Brady +250 on that competition.
It is wild to Joe that the Bucs nearly fall out of the top-10 oldest teams without Brady.
Joe doesn’t think this is trivial. Bodies break down easier as they age. And the Bucs the past two seasons have played a lot of football for an old team.
Joe wonders if the smart thing for the Bucs would be to put guys like Will Gholston, Rob Gronkowski, Ndamukong Suh and David on pitch counts against cupcake opponents.
April 6th, 2022 at 12:05 am
JOE writes, “Brady by himself increases Tampa’s SWA by 0.6 years”
Stop and think about that for a minute.
That is INSANE. LMAO.
There will never be another like Brady.
April 6th, 2022 at 12:57 am
I’d trade picks from 2023 for picks this year so we can fill out the defense and get younger in a hurry.
April 6th, 2022 at 1:30 am
We would have a young team too if we were forced to play 5 draft picks as starter every year.
I agree with sasquatch in that we should trade away all late round picks this year and next.
When was the last time the Bucs got a steal in round 4 or beyond?
Williams was a 3rd round pick and might not start if we take safety.
When will this is definitely BRADY’S LAST YEAR sink in?
April 6th, 2022 at 1:35 am
The youth we have are quality players. That’s what is important. All this youth is learning a winning mentality from the Olds.
April 6th, 2022 at 3:22 am
My teenage son finally beat me in a race for the first time this year, so I can attest to old age eventually taking a toll, but Brady is a freak of nature and is so far immune to the ravages of time. He was easily the best qb in the league last year and if not for Brady weariness/dislike he would have won mvp over the weirdo from that boring wasteland up north.
April 6th, 2022 at 7:37 am
Cupcake opponents like Washington last year? There are no take games off in the NFL you should know that Joe. That’s the trouble with older players, and that’s why you trade, or release them. They can’t practice, like JPP last year, they take longer to recover when they do get injured, and they make to much money. I hope Bowles runs a tighter ship when it comes to practice, and preparing during the week. If you’re to old to keep up during the week, you shouldn’t be starting on Sundays.
April 6th, 2022 at 8:14 am
‘Joe wonders if the smart thing for the Bucs would be to put guys like Will Gholston, Rob Gronkowski, Ndamukong Suh and David on pitch counts against cupcake opponents.’
Interesting proposition Joe, but I’m curious … WHY didn’t you mention putting the oldest Buc (Brady) on a pitch count also against ‘cupcake’ opponents? Oh that’s right, TB12’s a fierce competitor who would’ve told the coaches to f-off.
Well all 4 of those you mentioned are also fierce competitors, and THAT’S why they’ve all lasted so long and are still playing at their ‘advanced’ ages. I wonder if there’s a difference between ‘being old’ and ‘being good & old’.
The reduced pitch count though, against ALL opponents, is gonna be critical this year IMO. We’ll be playing tough opponents every week, and there’ll probably be right around 1100 defensive snaps in those 17 games. All the players you mentioned get involved a LOT in the blocking game (either giving or receiving) and it’s sure to take its toll.
In the case of Suh & Gholston, Todd Bowles does a great job IMO of keeping a nice rotation of DTs going (Vea wouldn’t be down at 55% out of the goodness of Coach Todd’s heart). But in the case of LVD, when he’s healthy he’s out there. MAYBE we should sign another quality LB to spell him sometimes? (Just a thought). And in the case of Gronk, he a go-to receiver for sure, but most of what he contributes on each play relates to blocking (he giveth much better than he receiveth I’d imagine). MAYBE we could use another blocking TE? (Just another thought).
April 6th, 2022 at 8:30 am
If you look at the different position groups it’s really just a player here or there that need to be replenished in the draft over the next two years.
April 6th, 2022 at 9:42 am
This article is why this draft is so important. Its a definte needs based draft. Licht can’t just find back-up players. He needs to find starters…Or those capable of starting when some of our geriatrics go down. This draft seems deep enough to be successful.
April 6th, 2022 at 10:20 am
Bucs could really use more picks would like them to trade down if they can seems like a lot of value in rounds 2 through 4.
April 6th, 2022 at 12:37 pm
SKBucsFan … ‘Licht can’t just find back-up players. He needs to find starters…Or those capable of starting when some of our geriatrics go down’.
Nailed it, and especially with the players we take in the Top-3 Rnds. Historically those will be the majority of your starters down the line (2nd & 3rd contracts). Just look at the guys who’ll need replacing soon:
o Suh – 1st Rnd pick … 35 yrs old going into 13th year
o JPP – 1st Rnd pick … 33 yrs old going into his 13th year
o LVD – 2nd Rnd pick … 32 yrs old going into his 11th year
o Gronk … 2nd Rnd pick … 33 yrs old going into 12th year
o Minter – 2nd Rnd pick … 31 yrs old going into 10th year
o L. Ryan – 3rd Rnd pick … 31 yrs old going into 10th year
o Gholston – 4th Rnd pick … 30 yrs old going into 10th year
o Cockrell – 4th Rnd pick … 30 yrs old going into 8th year
o Jensen – 6th Rnd pick … 31 yrs old going into 9th year
o Brady – 6th Rnd pick … 44 yrs old going into 23rd year
o McLendon – Undrafted … 36 yrs old going into 13th year
So there’s 11 players, all of whom saw a bunch of snaps last season, who’ll need to be replaced relatively soon (all within next 3-4 years probably). IF we can draft guys in the Top-3 Rnds who’ll be starters and/or key rotational guys to replace them, that’d take us FOUR years of perfect drafting just for those position groups. PLUS we’ll need to replace some guys from other position groups during that timespan (RBs for instance?). JL has his work cut out for him after this year it would seem.
April 6th, 2022 at 1:43 pm
Im 50 and still wake up with it pointing 12 o clock….we’re not that old lol