Tom Brady And Failed Conversions
March 30th, 2022
Better with age.
One thing that drove Joe wild about Mike Glennon when he was a Bucs starter (grim days, indeed) was how he always seemed to throw to a receiver 3-5 yards short of the sticks on third down.
A Glennon special!
At one point Joe wanted to wing a full bottle of beer at his TV. You need a first down, throw for a first down!
Years later, a stat geek made up a cool stat that documented such trash throws. Unfortunately, he called these throws a “failed completion.” Joe is really irked at this name. That’s an oxymoron. A completion is not a failure. The stat should be called “failed conversion” (because the throw failed to convert a first down).
Anyway, Football Outsiders considers a failed conversion (Joe’s term) as a completion that “is any completed pass that fails to gain 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% on second down, or 100% on third or fourth down.”
It should be of no surprise that Tom Brady is elite when it comes to this stat.
He’s not the best in the NFL, but he’s close. But what freaks Joe out is that Brady actually improved on this stat in 2021 despite turning 44. And this improvement also came as Brady witnessed injuries (both physical and head) ravage his receiving targets.
As a 43-year old in 2020 while leading the Bucs to a Super Bowl, Brady was No. 15 in the NFL in lowest percentage of failed conversion throws (23.2 percent). Last year Brady finished fifth (21.3 percent).
This guy Brady is wild. He also threw for 5,300 yards last year. It seems like the older he gets the better he gets.
(Interestingly last year, only Pat Mahomes at 18.2 percent had a lower percentage than unwanted Baker Mayfield at 20.6.)
March 30th, 2022 at 9:02 am
Certainly the older he gets the smarter he gets. No one sees that game in progress as well as he does.
March 30th, 2022 at 9:05 am
Extend him
March 30th, 2022 at 9:07 am
Ohh glennon Joe, Lol! Schianos last saving grace after the failed Freeman experiment. Those were fun days indeed, lol!
March 30th, 2022 at 9:14 am
Brady always knows what is going on in the game.
March 30th, 2022 at 9:14 am
Brady always knows what is going on in the game.
March 30th, 2022 at 9:15 am
Sure glad TB12 is here in Tampa!!!!!! Makes the fall and winter so enjoyable!!!!!
March 30th, 2022 at 9:18 am
Is Glennon available?
March 30th, 2022 at 9:26 am
Like a fine wine Brady is
March 30th, 2022 at 9:29 am
Every time some stat is mentioned that Brady excelled in is even more remarkable considering his age. In fact Brady has to be number 1 in all QB stats by a QB over 40 except maybe interceptions. I have a feeling that we better enjoy this year with Brady because it is beginning to look like it will be his last as a Buc.
March 30th, 2022 at 9:33 am
Think it was Arians who said when Brady retires he will own the record book.
March 30th, 2022 at 10:09 am
They should adjust Comp % and remove all the trash dump offs QBs use to pad their stats. Drew Brees led the league in Comp % because half his throws were 5 yds or less. Also stop comparing “Accuracy” to Completion %. They are totally not even the same thing.
March 30th, 2022 at 10:14 am
Brady is an all-time great throwing receivers open.
March 30th, 2022 at 10:30 am
As long as he can still make the throws keep extending him. After all he is the GOAT.
March 30th, 2022 at 10:33 am
Usually, I say stats are for losers. This one actually shows something.
March 30th, 2022 at 10:41 am
PFF has a stat called BIG TIME THROWS.
TOM led the league. I pray the pass defense is better this season. We have the athletes. Coaching was poor.
March 30th, 2022 at 10:48 am
What about those maddening throws last year on 3 and short? Remember the ones where he threw it way downfield and missed?
It happened mid-late season.
I still wonder if that was TB being over confident or The MASTERMIND BL working his “magic”
March 30th, 2022 at 11:10 am
I heard, several times, last season that Brady sees the play before the ball is snapped.
If the play isn’t there he checks down or throws it away. That is something that most QBs just dream about. Brady has no problem throwing it short or long, he knows he can make it happen the next time.
It is a first for Tampa, to have a QB confident that he can sustain every drive, even when he throws plays away.
March 30th, 2022 at 11:27 am
tommy b had probably his best “back to back” seasons of his whole career the past 2 years in tampa…
that includes being an 40 something year old man…
it includes literally half of the first season where he wasn’t really running the offense as he saw fit and adjusting to a new team and personel…
it includes AB out half of last year and jumping jacks into the abyss…
it includes only half a season of AB in 2021…
it includes godwin missing a solid handful of games and mike missing a few too…
and it includes about a half a season missed by the gronkster in 2021…
and last but not least it includes the invisibility of one scotty miller as time wore on -from last year at mid-season, and the concrete block hands of rojo the first half of 2021 (not sure i should have included these last ones, but i did)
March 30th, 2022 at 12:29 pm
I think it’s the receiver’s fault most of the time if they are short of first down.
March 30th, 2022 at 12:35 pm
Failed completion… means that incomplete passes and worthless completions don’t count. Makes sense to me. Is there anything good about a screen pass that goes for negative yards or a five yard pass on third and 10 on your side of the field?
March 30th, 2022 at 12:49 pm
And the 4th downs remember he is old and seen it ourselves he doesn’t know what down it is lol
March 30th, 2022 at 12:52 pm
HEY, some actual meaningful numbers for once! Love it…
Hey look, there at #16 is all the dummies favorite, Derek Carr, right behind rookie Matt Jones. Carr LOVES throwing those 5 yard dump offs on 3rd and 9, gets him free yards and helps his completion percentage, which is all the dummies are about. It’s a very Mike Glennon type of stat.
Also, as expected, there’s Teddy Bridgewater at #19.
Also, as expected, is the vastly overrated Joe Burrow at #20. The guy just holds and holds and holds the ball, then gets sacked, the people say his line stinks. Burrow is just a slightly better Bridgewater, just with awesome WRs, and is absolutely a one-year wonder who will never again sniff a SB.
Cousins being #30 was a bit unexpected. A guy I know who is a big Vikings fan told me that Cousins doesn’t push the ball downfield, but when he’s played the Bucs he’s looked amazing, so I didn’t believe him that Cousins was that bad. But there’s the numbers, I was wrong on him.
Finally, if Mayfield is released, and available on the cheap, the Bucs should absolutely bring him in. For all the Florida fanbois – if you boy Trask is that good, he’ll just win the job, so stop your crying if that happens.
March 30th, 2022 at 12:56 pm
Fun fact: Winston was #2 in 2019 at 18.2%. Brady was #27 that year at 27.9%.
To be clear, dummies, I’m not knocking Brady, it’s just to note how bad the players around Brady were in 2019.
Brady’s 2020 number is middling, but as we all remember, it took him a while to get Leftwich and Arians to actually bend the offense to his liking, then after that everything took off.
March 30th, 2022 at 12:59 pm
Finally, one more note… From the 2019 Football Outsiders Failed Competitions category, again where Winston is ranked #2, Brady #27…
“One of the most rumored destinations for Brady is Tampa Bay, where Jameis Winston may have worn out his welcome after the first 30-touchdown, 30-interception season in NFL history. Bruce Arians has had success with older quarterbacks in the past — see Carson Palmer in Arizona — so from his point of view you can see the appeal of adding a legend like Brady over an inconsistent player like Winston, even if Winston’s arm strength is, on paper, a better match for Arians’ downfield attack than Brady’s recent noodle-arm tendencies.”
Just fun to remember the Brady has a ‘noodle-arm’ theory as he’s lead the league in downfield passing for the last 2-years, and lead the lead in yards and TDs since he got here.
March 30th, 2022 at 1:13 pm
That number should go up now that Malcom Jenkins retired
March 30th, 2022 at 1:20 pm
We can’t forget Brady lost PLENTY of games in his career and will lose a lot more. Even if he somehow played all by himself he would lose games. He doesn’t throw perfect balls every time, nor can we expect that he will. It does not all depend on him.
Go Bucs!
March 30th, 2022 at 2:47 pm
Wow…kinda looks like we e been duped…43 year olds can be alot better than 30..and 20 year olds…go Brady…I say prove this now til your 50…
March 30th, 2022 at 2:56 pm
GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!
Dummies make Fancy Man angry.
March 30th, 2022 at 3:44 pm
Thanks Rod Munch, love the added data. Sure hope TB can noodle-arm us another SB Championship!
March 30th, 2022 at 4:08 pm
Brady is unreal…..44 year old QB’s should not be doing what he is doing! The man is the best ever that I ever saw. Even when he is having an off game (1st half of the Rams playoff game last year) he comes roaring back in the 2nd half (missing his best receivers) and still almost pulls the win off. AMAZING INDEED!!!
March 30th, 2022 at 5:25 pm
Cricket, describe plenty of losses? The man has won more SB’s than any single franchise. Everyone loses, not everyone wins. He WINS!!!
March 30th, 2022 at 8:09 pm
As a Pat’s fan it is funny how most people that were not Pat fans called him a cheater. Now he is in Tampa and your already to call him the GOAT. Which us Pat’s fans did before he was traded and still after he was traded!!!!
March 30th, 2022 at 10:38 pm
Pats fan . I never believe he’s the goat and I still don’t believe he’s the goat. But I do respect your comment because it wasn’t that long ago when they were calling him the cheating goat and now they act like he’s been with us his whole career. To me Brady will always be a Patriot . I’m a real bucs fan and I want my bucs to develop their own quarterback and they hate me for it.
March 31st, 2022 at 8:23 pm
Pats fan – I’ve been a Brady fan since I watched him win his first Super Bowl ! I’ve been a Bucs fan my entire life. We actually have a Pat’s fan on here regularly and he’s never rude or disgruntled that Brady is a Buc .. And by the way , he WASN’T TRADED TO THE BUCS , HE WAS A FREE AGENT THAT YOUR COACH DIDN’T MAKE AN OFFER TO HIM TO COME BACK !! SO GO BLAME YOUR COACH!! DUMBASS ..
March 31st, 2022 at 8:25 pm
LISTNFRMAFAR- WHY ARE YOU BACK ON HERE ?? GO ROOT FOR YOUR NINERS YOU BANDWAGON PIECE OF💩🚽.. GO BUCS