Eagles QB Jalen Hurts.

To read how Derrik Klassen of Football Outsiders breaks down Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts as a passer against the blitz, Hurts is like a modern-day big-league baseball player.

Home run or strike out.

Klassen paints a picture of Hurts struggling throwing against blitzes. And that may be the weak link of the Eagles as they face the blitz-happy Bucs defensive coordinator Todd Bowles.

Only 46 of Hurts’ passes this year were marked as being thrown down the middle. Against a Bucs defense that has been shaky between the numbers thanks to middling coverage from their linebackers and constant injuries at safety, this should be a matchup where the middle of the field can be exploited, but Hurts will need to step up and prove it.

The Eagles may also struggle handling Todd Bowles’ heavy dose of blitzing, depending on which side of the Hurts coin comes up. Hurts has been a gash-or-be-gashed passer against the blitz. He ranks 28th out of 31 qualifying quarterbacks in completion percentage against the blitz, which suggests he has struggled to find the easy way out. However, he ranks ninth in yards per attempt against the blitz, which suggests he has been able to find big plays from time to time. With the Bucs leading the league in blitzing, though, it’s easy to imagine the sheer volume of blitzes could get to Hurts unless he’s on his A-game.

So this is why Bucs Super Bowl-winning coach Bucco Bruce Arians and Bowles were so adamant this week they had to turn the Eagles’ offense into a one-dimensional offense. If Hurts has to throw, it seems the Bucs may have the Eagles in the bag.

Will Hurts pass much? Klassen notes that the Bucs run defense has really taken a nosedive the past few weeks, ranked in the bottom half of NFL run defenses!

… The Bucs’ defense slipped to 17th in run defense from Week 10 onwards. Some of that is injury-related, as is the case with most of the Bucs’ struggles this year …

So what does this smell like to Joe? Turnovers. Take care of the ball, force a couple of turnovers and the Bucs should be OK.

No, it’s not supposed to rain much today. A passing shower after kickoff, maybe. That doesn’t mean the field won’t be messy.  That, of course, could lead to turnovers. (Hopefully, the Bucs covered the field like they often do.)

We will see in a few hours what kind of answers Bowles has for his struggling run defense.