Keep Firing
September 29th, 2021
Lighting up scoreboards.
Some people think the Bucs need to run more. Looking at the numbers, Joe howls against this suggestion.
If anything the Bucs need to throw more.
Look, the object of the game is to score more points than your opponent, correct? Well, even though the Bucs “only” scored 24 points this past week (in part because the defense could not get off the field on third downs), the first time in 10 games the Bucs have not scored at least 30 points, the Bucs are still leading the NFL in scoring.
They average 34.3 points a game, tied with Arizona for most in the NFL.
Noted stathead and handicapper Warren Sharp, in his gambling podcast last week, was convinced the Bucs’ offense has exploded this season because the Bucs are not running as much on first down as they did last year.
And in Sharp’s mind, the less Bucs offensive coordinator Bryon Leftwich has Playoff Lenny and Ronald Jones plunge up the middle on first down, the better.
Per a graphic you can see below, Sharp may be onto something. Apparently, only the Bills have passed more on early downs (first or second down) than the Bucs.
Joe is a huge believer in not fixing something that isn’t broken. And right now, scoring, the core element of the game, is not a broken tool for the Bucs.
So Joe says, throw, throw and throw some more!
The way the defense is getting schooled of late, it’s back to the old Mike Smith days when Mr. Entertainment, America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, knew leaving the locker room before kickoff if he didn’t hang 35 on an opponent, the Bucs were in for a dogfight.
Hat tip: @NichCarlson.
The Bills are still slingin’ it pic.twitter.com/0chQH5Uu4v
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) September 28, 2021
September 29th, 2021 at 9:05 am
Maybe if healthy, Gio shoulld run the ball more since Rojo nor Lenny isn’t getting it done.
September 29th, 2021 at 9:07 am
I have a good friend that wants to run more. I consistently say there are many ways to win in the NFL and it seems that KC, Buffalo, and Tampa seem to do quite well being passing teams first.
If we get ahead by larger amounts because the defense starts tightening up, I am sure we will get more running of the ball.
September 29th, 2021 at 9:14 am
I agree with throwing it more until you get a lead, then run it – keep the D off the field after you get the lead. Of course, that’s just a strategy- game situations
will have more say.
September 29th, 2021 at 9:19 am
The defense will come around just like it did last year. We have had several injuries and faced three very very good quarterbacks. All the players who are hurt will be back and too much talent to not tighten up. Pass rush gonna get home this week in New England.
September 29th, 2021 at 9:22 am
For the 1st 10 games last year, I thought my head would explode. I said it last year and i’ll say it this year. We are basically playing with 3 downs. Put this on a line chart. Once you fart on 1st down, guess what. the defense can start thinking pass pass pass. 3rd and 8-10? The defense can start blitzing GETTING AFTER Tompa, God forbid. Of course if we can rumbling bumbling stumbling for 5-7 yds, go for it. NOBODY is better than the goat at reading defenses
September 29th, 2021 at 9:52 am
Two issues with this, Brady will eventually get injured and two he is 44 throwing 55 times a game may wear him down later in the season. I know we all think he is Superman but even he had his kryptonite.
September 29th, 2021 at 10:12 am
Brady was shredding the rams nobody is playing better football than him!
September 29th, 2021 at 10:44 am
Nothing hurts a defense more than a stiff punch in the gut. T.D. passes are like a pretty lady, but give me a solid corn fed mid western girl once in awhile, know what I mean Joe? Angry runs, imposing your will on the other team. Nobody was sorry when it was Allstott up the gut! I don’t care if we run 10, or 100 times, just make it a beating when you do run.
September 29th, 2021 at 11:31 am
Was telling a bartender that the other day Joe.
If I ran the offense for the Bucs… I’d prolly run the ball like 6 times tops.
September 29th, 2021 at 12:01 pm
@Buc1987 – and if I’m playing against the Bucs, I run it even less.
September 29th, 2021 at 12:27 pm
Given how often BL runs the ball on 1st down for a yard and a half, this stat means we must pass it like 95% of the time on second down? Play calling is more predictable than the moon phases!
September 29th, 2021 at 1:22 pm
Gonna have to go ahead and disagree here. We don’t have to be 50/50 run/pass balanced, but we do have to be more balanced than we have been.
Of course that is only if you want to win a Super Bowl this year…
Don’t believe me? Let’s take a look at past champions and their offensive rushing play percentages each season:
2020 Bucs – 38% for the season, 47% in playoffs
2019 chiefs – 38% for the season, 39% in playoffs
2018 Pats – 45% for the season, 47% in playoffs
2017 Eagles – 44% for the season, 45% in playoffs
2016 Pats – 43% for the season, 34% in playoffs
2015 Broncos- 40% for the season, 47% in the playoffs
2014 Pats – 40% for the season, 38% in the playoffs
2013 Seahawks – 52% in regular season, 55% in the playoffs
2012 Ravens – 44% for the season, 51% in playoffs
Should I keep going?
A roughly 40/60 run/pass split is ideal if you want to win a super bowl. So, where do our Bucs stack up this year?
Last week- 12% rushing plays. (18% if you include Brady’s runs)
For the 2021 season so far: 24% (last in the league)
That’s not gonna work if you want to win another Super Bowl. Simple as that.
September 29th, 2021 at 1:55 pm
Joe’s OK with that so long as the offense doesn’t go full-blown Lovie Smith turtle. Running the ball just to say you ran and beat your chest that you have a “balanced offense” accomplishes nothing but losing.
(Joe is not anti-running, so long as you have the horses to run successfully.)
September 29th, 2021 at 2:03 pm
^ It’s not about “beating your chest about being balanced”, it’s about keep the defense out of balance and on their heels.
Again, go look at the run/pass percentages from all the previous SB winners that I posted above.
I mean, you guys DO want to win another SB, right???
September 29th, 2021 at 8:56 pm
Seems like Unbelievable that your stats support that Brady won Superbowls in 2016 and 2014 with running under 40% in the playoffs.
That is ok with me.
I also remember when Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, and Chris Carson in the 2019 playoffs had the huge running games at the start of the playoffs. Every fan on this site was saying that we have to copy those styles (i.e. you can not win without a superior run game – we did last year). Guess who won that 2019 year. Kansas City because they were the best passing the ball that year and also had under 40% running plays in the post season.
To me we do not have to match anyone else’s style to win in the NFL. We just have to be the best version of our offense and our defense during the playoffs.
September 30th, 2021 at 7:17 am
How about some pre-snap, misdirection movement b4 a run play? Creativity, Other than off-guard?