Hey Jason Licht, Start Hoarding!
April 27th, 2021
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BY IRA KAUFMAN
Rare times call for rare measures.
As the 2021 draft approaches, Buc fans are understandably giddy about the franchise’s prospects for becoming the NFL’s first repeat champions since the 2004 Patriots. With all 22 starters back on board, Tampa Bay is the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
When you study this roster, it’s difficult to find an area of immediate concern.
While you never have enough edge rushers or cornerbacks, the odds any rookie will make a major contribution this fall appears slim.
A year ago, the Bucs went into the draft knowing they had significant holes to fill at right tackle and safety. Tristan Wirfs and Antoine Winfield Jr. became key contributors in Tampa Bay’s historic season, but times have changed.
The major holes at One Buc Place have been patched up.
Bucs GM Jason Licht
As a result, Jason Licht finds himself unencumbered by need. All options are on the table, but here’s the option that makes the most sense. Trade down, then trade down again.
Keep stockpiling picks for another day, when you’re not in such an enviable position.
If another team wants to move from the 40th spot to your No. 32, offering a fifth-round pick, hold out instead for a third-round choice in 2022.
Load up for next year, building flexibility into your future draft plans.
That’s the smart way to go.
“I’m watching Miami right now, teams that collect currency,” says former NFL executive Scott Pioli. “As part of the strategy, if you start trading away too many picks, you’re setting yourself up for disappointment. We all miss on a lot of draft picks, so the more picks you have, the more opportunity you have to get it right and get good young players.”
NFL history tells us first-round picks turn into solid NFL players only 50 percent of the time. And guess what? The Bucs currently own the very last selection in Thursday night’s opening round.
And guess what? This ain’t a great draft, either. Defensive tackles, linebackers and premium edge rushers are in short supply.
Trade down.
Clubs willing to accept picks in next year’s draft are likely to maximize their return. The odds of returning all 22 starters in 2022 are remote, so this is an opportunity for this organization to capitalize on a rare dynamic.
“I remember Bill Parcells telling me this,” Pioli says. “Bill said be careful of the guys who love to trade away draft picks — most of them are afraid to draft and afraid of the grade they’re going to get because the fewer picks you have, those are the GMs who get the highest draft grades. That always resonated with me.”
The Bucs are in prime position to pounce on the weakness of others.
It’s not hard to imagine teams like Buffalo, Cleveland or Seattle trying to load up, thinking the right rookie still on the board at No. 32 can help put them over the top.
Make a deal, Jason Licht. Ira Kaufman is demanding draft-day trades with an eye on 2022.
If Licht isn’t happy with Tampa Bay’s potential return, keep the pick and go with the best player available. But there’s a good chance somebody will be interested in moving up to that No. 32 spot and the Bucs can sweeten their haul by accepting a trade involving picks in 2022.
You don’t need to study calculus to realize the more picks you have, the better your odds for a successful draft. And then there’s the Brady Factor.
The man turns 44 in August and the end of an unparalleled career is fast approaching. Currently, there is no apparent backup plan. It’s not unrealistic to think the Bucs could be scrambling for Tom Brady’s replacement after the 2021 season.
Wouldn’t it be nice to have the draft capital to move up for a quarterback a year from now? Don’t believe any claptrap suggesting the 2022 crop of quarterback prospects looks dismal.
Things change.
“You want the currency to move up and down the board to have a wide cast of opportunities,” Pioli says. “Use as many resources as you can. Some of the biggest mistakes I’ve been a part of came when I leaned too heavily on need.”
Let the suckers lean this time around. The champs have it within their power to feed off the desperation of their peers. In that respect, the Bucs do indeed have a pressing need going into the 2021 draft.
They need to be hoarders.
Ira!
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April 27th, 2021 at 8:41 am
Make 1st two picks then try & trade all other picks for next year. Because i believe Bucs can get 2 good players this draft. After that, it’s a complete crap shoot
April 27th, 2021 at 8:46 am
im all for trading down from #32….the difference between #32 and a kid in the mid 2nd round isnt that big…
bucs may not have holes but we need depth at certain positions….DE/OLB and LB imo….adding 2 DBs would great….
GO BUCS!!!!
April 27th, 2021 at 8:55 am
Ira is spot on. Spend it next year.
April 27th, 2021 at 8:57 am
Boring…. Bucs should burn their later picks and move up to grab a luxury good. If the right guy starts to fall and we can snatch him we may spend 2022 picks to get him. I want the Bucs to be scary dangerous in 2021. This is football not the insurance business. This may be the last dance of the greatest quarterback of all time.
April 27th, 2021 at 9:13 am
I’d rather move up. Winning it all again this year should be the goal. You win in this league with star players. It gets a lot harder finding stars after the first two rounds. I think we should stay put in round one, and trade our 3rd, and 4th to move back into the second round. With one 1st, and two 2nds we’d have a better chance of repeating. That would give us three good players, and that’s all this team needs to repeat.
April 27th, 2021 at 9:18 am
I completely agree with collecting future draft capital to be able to move up in the next draft or two so they have the ammunition to trade up and get the QB they want when the time is right.
It will require a lot of patience to play the long game like that and it will take thick skin because I don’t think this fan base has been conditioned to be able to see any further in the future than ten feet in front of their face.
This is a draft for developmental players that can be starters one or two years from now.
April 27th, 2021 at 9:18 am
I disagree
This team is setup to teach and develop young players NOW
Its the perfect incubator for rookies
Get the best available in the draft with an eye towards our 2022 FAs
April 27th, 2021 at 9:22 am
You trade up or down if you have a player targeted for selection, not to stockpile future picks. In the NFL – you only rebuild when you suck.
There will probably be a quality DB, Olineman or WR available at 32 or near that pick, – if a DLineman or LB is there, great, but not likely. A QB at 32? Might as well buy a lottery ticket. If you pick a RB- who are you going to trade? or leave on the bench all year?
April 27th, 2021 at 9:23 am
Another strategy is to move down and then move up……..Trade 32 for 40, for example and then use the extra pick(s) to trade up from 64 to 45….thus getting two players you want in the second round.
I agree with Licht that you don’t need a bunch of later round picks that probably won’t make the team.
We will have a good crop of UDFAs this year because of our Championship status.
April 27th, 2021 at 9:33 am
I like the idea of it, depending on who you trade with and their potential draft spot for 2022. I do not have a problem dropping back a short distance from 32 into the 2nd. The mid rounds should have some stuff we could use , RBs (since everyone’s contract is up then), a few Edge rushers with potential, and OLs for back ups. The downside is that we not very deep at all in some areas like Edge and DT. We can and, I think, will pick up a WR in rounds 4-7.
April 27th, 2021 at 10:03 am
Interesting concept Ira, but I disagree.
At the very least we need an OL, DL and RB.
Use all remaining picks to move up accordingly.
I get that we’re all in on repeating but let’s try to be a little proactive about our future.
April 27th, 2021 at 10:08 am
LOL I misread the title, I thought Ira was telling Jason to start whoring.
April 27th, 2021 at 10:11 am
Agree 100%.
Nobody in this draft above #15 really jumps out at me.
Stockpile picks for 2022, and fill ST voids in cheaper FA signings.
April 27th, 2021 at 10:28 am
This season the Bucs NEED depth at edge, corner, C and guard. Jpp getting older. 2 knee surgeries.
April 27th, 2021 at 10:28 am
It’s not a deep draft. So the number of teams looking to trade up may be slim. That reduces the price.
Remember it takes two to tango to do a trade. If no one offers anything good for that #32 pick, then you got to make the pick.
April 27th, 2021 at 10:30 am
Joe, I have you looked at the 2022 QB Draft class??? I have & maybe 1 would be rated in the top 5 of this yrs class. (& Unless Mac Jones really slides…None of those top 5 2021 QB’s will be on the board by the time the Bucs pick @ #32.
I’d just as soon see the FO draft a Mond/Trask/Mills in the 2nd/3rd to develop behind TB12 for a yr – while he’s still in the building, as to wait on a QB in 2022 of equal talent/grade & maybe not have TB12 in the QB room/practice field to learn from. (which IMO, would be ANOTHER HUGE WASTED OPPORTUNITY!)
April 27th, 2021 at 11:09 am
We know Jason isn’t adverse to dealing picks. And we have seemed to be pretty adept as of late in evaluating talent. So why not deal, if someone we really crave doesn’t fall to us?
April 27th, 2021 at 11:16 am
cat…I don’t see anything wrong with the strategy of building a team complete, but for drafting a young QB, and becoming the desired destination for future seasoned vet QB’s to come to for a year or two to get a ring… if the talent we need isn’t available to us in the draft. That isn’t preferable. But workable.
April 27th, 2021 at 11:21 am
If they “sell” off all seven picks, eight counting the comp, for picks in 2022 and 2023 they could have as many as twenty three draft picks in the next two years. Any roster deficiencies can be filled this year with undrafted FA’s and such.
That’s eleven or twelve picks each year, before Licht starts dealing in the next draft. A golden opportunity.
April 27th, 2021 at 12:04 pm
If Brady retires after the season I don’t think starting a rookie (even a good one) at QB is a good thing. Would like to see us grab a QB to sit under Brady for a while. Don’t think we should be wasting this opportunity.
April 27th, 2021 at 12:21 pm
Generations may pass before the Buc’s have this opportunity again (if ever.) Lot of talk about a repeat, but it rarely happens because all of a sudden every team you play gives you their best game, injuries can be devastating, and you are putting all your eggs in a 44 year old basket who assuredly is the best QB to ever play the game but he is still 44. Nobody wants that 2nd win more than me so I say to hell with building teams for the future. Let’s win now. Trade-up, Down, next years picks, or the P[rate Ship if necessary but “Just WIN Baby.”
April 27th, 2021 at 12:53 pm
with this team so deep, it’s likely that some good players will not make the team or we’ll be ravaged on the practice squad. Not many bodies needed. Ira has the top plan! In win now mode, but building the future too. Any 2021 needs going into the season will be solved with veteran signings wanting a ring.
April 27th, 2021 at 1:44 pm
I’m good with the trade back approach, unless a guy the Bucs really have graded highly gets within range. Then, a trade up would be the way to go.
April 27th, 2021 at 1:59 pm
In 2019, no one had Joe Burrow pegged as the #1 overall in the 2020 draft. Who had Zach Wilson on their top-3 radar before 2020 too? You can’t evaluate the 2022 QB class in April of ’21. Set a baseline? Maybe.
Even if Licht stockpiles picks for next year, this team better be slotted to draft 32 again (or heaven forbid the late 20’s). You can’t just trade into the top 5 with your 32nd pick and an extra 3rd and 5th rounder.
Point being, you’re not going to magically get some elite QB prospect in 2022 regardless of the strength of the class. That’s just not how the NFL draft works anymore. Draft someone in 2nd-3rd round this year and let them grow for a year or 2 behind the Goat as others have said.