Tom Brady (43) = Carson Palmer (33)
December 15th, 2020
“Now Carson — eeerr, I mean Tom… “
Some way cool information from a respected national NFL writer about the Bucs and their Hall of Fame quarterback.
Over at The Athletic, Mike Sando decided to research how the Bucs are doing with park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-ignoring, down-forgetting, handshake-stiffing, jet-ski-losing, biscuit-baking Bucs quarterback Tom Brady playing for Bucco Bruce Arians.
In short, Sando writes that Brady with the Bucs in 2020 is basically Carson Palmer with the Cardinals and Arians in 2013.
Sando listed both quarterbacks’ stats: Brady this year and Palmer in 2013. It is spooky how nearly identical they are. Both teams were 8-5 after 13 games.
Brady and the Buccaneers are about where Palmer and the Cardinals were through their first 13 games together. They have an 8-5 record, same as the Cardinals had in 2013. Both teams ranked higher on defense than offense in EPA per game, with Todd Bowles coordinating the defenses for both teams. Those Cardinals and these Buccaneers also faced especially difficult competitors within their divisions. It’s New Orleans for these Bucs. It was Seattle and San Francisco for those Cardinals, who missed the playoffs in 2013 despite having a 10-6 record.
Here are more of the stats Sando cited that are just crazy close to identical.
The only stat Sando has for Palmer and Brady that is not remotely close is sacks. Through 13 games in 2013 with Arians and the Cardinals, Palmer was sacked 36 times. Brady has been sacked 16 times in 13 games.
(By comparison, Jameis Winston was sacked 41 times through 13 games last year, so can we please stop the knee-jerk, incessant whining about the offensive line?)
So if you think Palmer did OK as Arians’ quarterback, then you should be OK with how Brady is playing this year.
December 15th, 2020 at 5:20 am
Just because Brady doesn’t take a sack doesn’t mean the oline did it’s job. Brady is saving the oline from looking a lot worse. Brady takes way too many hits.
December 15th, 2020 at 5:47 am
There are factors to consider when assessing the amount of hits Brady takes.
Is the defense sending more rushers than we have blockers? Is Brady setting up in a five or seven step drop or empty backfield. A pocket passer with less mobility
than some of the more mobile QB’s in the league is prone to absorb more hits, IMO.
December 15th, 2020 at 5:55 am
At the same time our O line is not doing its job when they let rushers through
nearly untouched, this a recipe for disaster.
December 15th, 2020 at 6:05 am
Ahem, most are not complaining about Brady, the issue is still Leftwich. Had Dan Baily not gift wrapped the game for us its a good chance bucs lose that game
December 15th, 2020 at 6:32 am
Brady has been one of the most hit QBs, so 13 sacks looks good on the stat sheet, but his 43 year old body tells a different story. If Brady was hunkie dorie back there, then he would not look so uncomfortable time amd again and sail a wide open recievers and miss an easy completion that was way over Godwin by 8-10 above him. Any one can see Tom looks hurried when he does not get the ball out quick. So to say kmee jerk reaction by fans or whoever is not a fair assessment of the offensive line. GO BUCS!!!!!
December 15th, 2020 at 6:43 am
The line does OK……Brady doesn’t get sacked like Winston because Brady gets rid of the ball…..throws it away if needed…..
December 15th, 2020 at 7:04 am
Interesting how close to identical Carson’s & Brady’s stats are on 2 different teams after 13 games 7 years apart running close to the same offensive system. One of the key differences that jumped out at me Joe was that Brady has 30 TDs passing through 13 games, while Palmer only had 20 TDs passing at that point. Of course I’d have to believe that Brady has the better receiving corps, and that his fewer INTs makes a huge difference.
Also looks like Bowles’ 2013 Cards’ defense was a little better than our present 2020 Bucs’ defense. That Cards’ defense averaged 20.3 PPG Allowed, a little below the 22.6 PPG that our current defense is allowing. Still, BOTH ranked #1 against the run but were ‘less good’ against the pass (#14 for Cards vs #20 for Bucs). Bowles’ 2013 Cards defense also generated more takeaways per game, although not by a huge amount (they had 30 takeaways in 16 games vs our 21 takeaways in 13 games). LOTS of similarities in those defenses too.
December 15th, 2020 at 7:52 am
as a fan of the NFL for 6 decades, I learned a long time ago that an accountant and a CPA are not the same thing. A CPA can take the EXACT same numbers and change a loss to a profit. Sports writers can do the same thing. Don’t believe me? Turn your TV off and listen to their game on Satelite. In every loss, you hear the same thing “here comes pressure” As a Brady fan for his entire career, let me give y’all a quick education. He’s NEVER been a long baller. His QBR hits the basement when he is pressured. DUH!!!!!! So just because he wasn’t sacked doesn’t mean the OL did their job. Let me refresh your memory. Again the radio analogy; 1yd run, 2yd run, 1 yd run, 0 yd run, 2 yd loss……..3rd and 8, 3rd and 10, 3yd and 0, 2yd loss. So mr writer, you are not a CPA yet
December 15th, 2020 at 7:52 am
And how many superbowls and playoff games did palmer win? Thats what I thought. Also, brady gets the ball out faster than just about any other qb making our oline look better than it is even when they do happen to block someone. Jameis, not so much. So the comparisons numerically may be close, but the circumstances differ. Palmer had Fitzgerald so he wasnt without receivers. The two common denominators are arians and bowles so any failures goes to them. How about a damn adjustment to their ridgid way of coaching mid game?
December 15th, 2020 at 8:18 am
We seem to overlook how banged up Carson was in Arizona running the no risk it no biscuit offense. IF Brady can help he is not going to run that offense because he knows its out dated. Going in to the playoffs for Brady to be deadly is to have a solid running game and the defense playing at a top level. Pretty simple formula for a deep post season run. Team should be plenty of confidence over the next 3 games considering each team doesn’t have a head coach.
December 15th, 2020 at 8:33 am
The games without Marpet were tough. He was a huge loss to the offense. Now that he’s back on his game, they’re doing better. Donovan Smith still has some consistency problems but the Bucs could do a lot worse with a different O line. Wirfs has proven to be a fantastic addition thus far. I have no issues with the Bucs O line now. The secondary appears to be the number 1 issue with consistency.
December 15th, 2020 at 8:36 am
Losing Vita Vea is also really starting to show how much he is needed on the D line. Gholston has really improved though and earned his spot on the line.
December 15th, 2020 at 8:51 am
We can speculate on the play of the O line. But the only one that can really tell you is Brady. And I don’t think he is talking.
December 15th, 2020 at 9:13 am
@alton green: No QB in the NFL maintains or raises his QBR when uner great pressure. Nine.
Brady is not unique in that regard.
Fact is he gets rid of the ball more quickly than the last brainiac the team had at that position.
IMO, the Bucs are more successful this season than in the last 5 because of vastly superior QB play.
That said, Brady’s strengths and Arians system need to come together for a more consistent offense.
December 15th, 2020 at 9:17 am
All we need Brady to do is play like he played Sunday . I don’t care about him getting 30 touchdowns . It’s a team sport not a quarterback sport . Brady did good enough for us to win and that’s all what matters. When the next quarterback come in all we need him to do is be good enough for us to win .
December 15th, 2020 at 9:17 am
I hate these types of comparisons. Other than the coaches, everything other than the QBs being compared is different – injuries, records of teams being played, etc. Same goes for previews of upcoming games – we’re going to be playing the Falcons this week, and there will be countless comparisons of how the two teams have fared against each other over the decades. It doesn’t matter. This year is totally different. Players change, coaches change, injuries change. Let’s just line up and play the game and not worry how Brady compares with other QBs under Arians’ tutelage or what last years scores were.
December 15th, 2020 at 9:39 am
“Brady has been sacked 16 times in 13 games.”
“By comparison, Jameis Winston was sacked 41 times through 13 games last year . . ..”
All those sacks. All those picks. 6-7 through 13 games in 2019. 8-5 this year.
Where are all those fans — you know who you are — saying Brady was too old, no arm strength, too immobile?
December 15th, 2020 at 9:52 am
while mobile qb,s are fun to watch,show me one thats held up as long as brady. 0, none zilch.Cam newton is on the decline, jackson, and watson will follow.too many hits, too little mental thoughts too take care of their bodues
December 15th, 2020 at 9:55 am
Brady is immobile which makes it more impressive what the O line has done. The sacks, interceptions, were the reason for being 6-7 last year. The facts show in our record that picks, and sacks matter when it comes time to wins, and losses.
December 15th, 2020 at 10:05 am
I think coach meant they can do whatever they want n Practice. Practice?!?!? How about some play action on first down Lefty? More wr screens. More draw plays. And another flea flicker soon. The broken record needs to be replaced
December 15th, 2020 at 10:20 am
Fan from Above Says
“Just because Brady doesn’t take a sack doesn’t mean the oline did it’s job. “
Actually, I felt the same way, until I saw that Brady is truly trusting this offensive line. For example, in the last game, I saw one play when he held the ball entirely too long, stepped up in the pocket, and held the ball even longer…never looking at all concerned about being hit from behind.
And that ended in a big play. So the line actually is doing it’s job…it’s just got some bad plays mixed in with the good.
Which is a change, because it used to be just mixing good plays in with the bad.
No OL is going to be perfect, and there are moments when I want to cuss that oline…but if we thought Winston was holding the ball too long, Brady is probably close to double that.
December 15th, 2020 at 11:45 am
Bonzai-
I was thinking about the time he took on the miller throw too. That was trust in the line.
December 15th, 2020 at 12:26 pm
Fran Tarkenton lasted until he was 38 and he didn’t get to benefit from today’s nutritional/training advances or quarterback-friendly protection rules (he played in 1960s and 1970s where it was open season on QBs).
Steve Young lasted until he was 37 (he played three games his final season at 38) and the dude thought he was a fullback.
Joe Theismann lasted until he was 37. We all know how that ended.
So those would be three exceptions. But you are right, “mobile” quarterbacks generally have a short shelf life.
Like Phil Simms said about runaround quarterbacks, “You don’t get quicker as you get older.”
Don’t think it is fair to say, “Well, show me a quarterback who has lasted as long as Brady.” Very, very, very few have, no matter their mobility
December 15th, 2020 at 12:36 pm
Yeah, because adding a future all-pro at right tackle (instead of the walking penalty-sack machine known as Demar Dotson), and having Gronk blocking too certainly doesn’t make any difference from last year to this year, right?
LOL
December 15th, 2020 at 1:24 pm
20 yrs in the league; TB12 has a 90% success rate on QB sneaks on 3rd/4th down. Would it kill Arians et.al. to take advantage of this?