Burnout Watch
December 8th, 2020
Historic pace for Dalvin Cook
Our beloved Buccaneers must contain the NFC’s very best running back on Sunday, but it seems overuse of Vikings RB Dalvin Cook has given the Bucs’ defense a head start.
Cook is churning toward 400 touches this season and the wear is showing significantly. A strong Star-Tribune story shed light on the subject and even noted that Cook is testy about the topic.
(For perspective, Adrian Peterson never had 400 touches in a season, and during Doug Martin’s workhorse, Pro Bowl season of 2012, he had 368 touches.)
Offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak said last week on KFAN he thought Cook had gotten “beat up” in recent games, and the running back has averaged fewer than four yards per carry in three of his past four games.
According to Sharp Football Stats, he’s only been successful on 47 percent of his rushing attempts in the past four weeks, after posting successful runs on 59 percent of his attempts in the Vikings’ first eight games. And according to NFL Next Gen Stats, Cook has averaged fewer rushing yards than expected in three of those four games (his season-long rate of 0.87 yards per carry over expectation is the sixth-best in the league).
The Jaguars put an extra defender in the box on 17 of Cook’s 32 carries on Sunday, blitzing linebackers and safeties to set edges against the running back, coach Mike Zimmer said. Cook had only seen an eight-man box 20 percent of the time, though, in his previous three games (his season-long rate, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, is 32.67 percent — the sixth-highest among backs with more than 100 carries).
Cook is ridiculously dangerous, but the Bucs’ run defense is elite, best in the NFL at 3.3 yards per carry allowed. And as Bucs fans know, Tampa Bay has clamped down on a lot of great backs over the past two seasons.
The numbers show the Bucs are catching Cook at just the right time. Still, those are just numbers.
What surely would help neuter Cook? A fast Bucs start and a healthy halftime lead, rare happenings in November.
December 8th, 2020 at 5:35 am
we need this win bad to make the playoffs…….. defense meeds to bring the hammer
December 8th, 2020 at 6:50 am
Please tell me this isn’t one of those stories where the RB (normally OL or QB on these pages) is beat up or can’t play and then said team comes back and blows the wheels off the Bucs anyway.
December 8th, 2020 at 7:25 am
Didn’t Cook sustain a serious knee injury in one of his first two seasons? That and the fact the Vikings stink could also explain why he’s worn out.
December 8th, 2020 at 8:03 am
The Doug Martin reference is on point since he was not effective after his two stellar seasons. Too many carries is a great way to shorten a running backs career, IMO.
December 8th, 2020 at 8:29 am
Cousins gets LOTS of yards, right up until he’s depended upon to carry the team
December 8th, 2020 at 8:40 am
They actually do have some pretty decent talent at WR with Thielen and Jefferson. We just need to do what we normally do and stuff the RB in our normal package. If I don’t see some Safety help over the top though, I’m going to blow my stack! 3 times in the same game is more than I can handle psychologically.
December 8th, 2020 at 9:12 am
Geez another on pace guy he’s hasn’t run for 400 carries yet and no one tries to pound the rock on us when it’s just easier to throw. He won’t be overused this week except on the pass game when we get killed.
December 8th, 2020 at 9:25 am
@Bob: “…Too many carries is a great way to shorten a running backs career…”
As is partaking a little too much in the way of recreational supplements.
December 8th, 2020 at 10:05 am
It does not matter about Cook so much as what way the Vikings try to attack the defense. If they do what so many teams have done with the short passing game it will be an uphill climb for the Bucs defense. From here on out, the Offense has to carry its own weight because the defense at best will be treading water. It is imperative that the offense actually play somewhere near their capability to be competitive. Does anyone remember James Wilder in 1984 had 407 carries for 1544yrds and 85 receptions for 685yrds that season for the Bucs? Much like Earl Campbell, he was used way too much and it definitely shortened his career. Too bad James was an awesome all-purpose back. At the time 407 carries were the all-time record. I will say this about Wilder, for me, in my opinion, James “J Dub” Wilder was the best running back in the history of the Buccaneers. I love Warrick Dunn and Mike Alstott, Ricky Bell, but Wilder is still the best. GO BUCS!!!!
December 8th, 2020 at 1:13 pm
I’m a little more worried about our secondary covering Vikings WR’s, than RB Cook running roughshod over the front 7.
December 8th, 2020 at 2:16 pm
I could totally see us limiting Cook to less than 50 yards from scrimmage while our pass defense let’s Cousins and Jefferson go buck wild. Depends on which secondary shows up I guess. 😜
December 8th, 2020 at 3:35 pm
Cadillac Williams anyone?