Faster Starts
December 8th, 2020
Awful November starts.
The Bucs had a bad month of November. And it’s a bad sign when a team that should be rounding into form for a playoff run instead begins to buckle.
But here we are.
The Bucs enter the month of December trying to find their footing after losing three of five games in the month of November, one of them won on the last play of the game after a controversial call.
People can point to how the Bucs rallied to only lose to the Rams and Chiefs by a field goal. Well, if the Bucs could start a game halfway decently, maybe they would have won?
In three of the five November games, the Bucs were shut out in the opening quarter. The Bucs lost all three.
In only one game (a win over the Stinking Panthers) the Bucs scored a touchdown in the first quarter. That was the highest-scoring opening quarter in the month of November. The only other game in November the Bucs scored in the first quarter (a field goal) was the win over the Giants.
Being that bad to open games points to one thing and one thing only for Joe: bad preparation.
Joe sure hopes Bucs coach Bucco Bruce Arians and his biggest and brightest staff worked this out during the bye week. If the Bucs make the playoffs, their opponents aren’t likely to let the Bucs up off the mat after rotten starts like that.
December 8th, 2020 at 12:32 am
I just read a great article by Brooks of the NFL Network.
Tom Brady Is on Pace to Join Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston & Carson Palmer as QBs Who Had Career-High Interceptions in Bruce Arians’ Offense.
December 8th, 2020 at 12:33 am
Yup. And often those quarterbacks cut their picks in half the next year with Arians.
December 8th, 2020 at 1:01 am
^^^ The “cuts INT’s in half in yr2” is exactly why I’ve never been convinced yr2 JW3 in BA’s system wouldn’t have been better option than 43yr old TB12 converting away from the Patriot Way…Transitioning from 20yrs of NE drink & dunk to a BA risk it no biscuit QB in a matter of months…And TB12 growing pains have hurt this 2020 team, nearly as much as JW3’s 2019 struggles. (JW3 had TB a competent K away from 9-7 even with 30picks)
December 8th, 2020 at 1:58 am
^^^ Except BA didn’t think so. And JW had lost the team, his grip on reality, and the respect of the league.
December 8th, 2020 at 3:41 am
Joe and catcard,
QB’S typically cut their ints in half Yr 2 under Arians offense. Catcard you think keeping winston was a better option based on this fact.
News flash!!!!!
It’s NOT TRUE!
It’s just something someone said and it sounded good so you guys bought it and ran with it.
BA has been a OC /HC with the Browns, Steelers, Colts, Cards and Bucs.
(He’s been a QB coach with the colts but that’s not his offense so you can’t count it.)
Here’s the facts, ………….
The Browns, Couch went 17/21 tds/ints yr1.
14/14 Yr 2 with 14 games played.
The Steelers, Big Ben was 34/14 Yr 1 and
19/15 yr2.
The Colts, Luck was 23/18 Yr 1 and
Arians was off the cards Yr 2
Halftime score… 3 teams. 2 qualified. 0 instances of claimed Yr 2
The Cards Palmer 24/22 Yr 1 and
11/3 Yr2 with 6 games played
The Bucs Winston 33/30 yr1 and
yr2 winston is gone.
Game over…..final score….
5 teams. 2 qualified, 1 incomplete data , 2 not qualfied. =.0 support for the Ari-effect
Arians Yr 1 vs Yr2 stuff is a myth……
.(the closest thing to reality is Palmer and who knows what an additional 10 games would have yielded. We do know that Palmers 3rd Yr was great and the 4th once again high ints. )
Unfortunately, as a respected media figure and influencer, you have acted as a “super spreader”, infecting millions and millions of jbf loyalists with a viral pandemic of false information which, has spread uncontrollably across the landscape faster than covid 19 on a 1000 dollar a day crack habit.
Catcard, He’s positive and needs to be placed in virtual lock down and a contact tracer assigned.
December 8th, 2020 at 4:13 am
D1 … That was absolutely A-W-E-S-O-M-E !!! Using facts to debunk a myth. Wow, whodathunkit?
December 8th, 2020 at 4:47 am
Joe you make a good case that the Bucs need to start faster; winning the 1st qtr is a respectable indicator of what the final game outcome will be.
There was an interesting study done in 2018 with the purpose of developing ‘a model to assess and predict the correlation between teams winning in the first quarter and winning games over the course of the season using NFL data’. It can be found at https://towardsdatascience.com/nfl-which-quarters-correlate-most-with-winning-87f23024c44a if you need a reference. Unfortunately it didn’t say what years were covered BTW, but since it’s recent I’d surmise that the data is also.
What it determined is that the extent to which winning the 1st qtr reflects game outcome depends on the team (Figure 7 results). For instance, when the Bucs won the 1st qtr they won the game 57.9% of the time. However, when the Patriots won the 1st qtr, they won the game 88.9% of the time. The NFL ‘average’ was that in 69.7% of the games, the team winning the 1st qtr would also win the game.
In the Summary it states ‘there is a strong correlation between winning the first quarter and winning games over the course of the season’. Wow, seemed like too much reading to get to that generalized conclusion. What I see in their data is that if you give a strong team the lead in the 1st (or any) quarter, there’s a very good chance that they’ll hold that lead and win the game. Duh.
So yes, the Bucs NEED to start games faster if we expect to have a better chance of winning games from here on out. We’re apparently not good enough (yet) to consistently overcome falling behind early.
December 8th, 2020 at 6:40 am
Hey, the streak continues under Arians. Jameis has cut his picks by more than half in the year after Arians. And doubled the splinters in his a$$. Eat the Ws, Jameis. Eat the Ws.
December 8th, 2020 at 7:10 am
Most of Brady’s picks come when we are behind…….he usually doesn’t throw them early in games……although he looks shaky early….uncomfortable…..we need to establish long scoring drives early with running an simple passes…..lay off the deep stuff….
December 8th, 2020 at 7:20 am
It still comes down to the simple fact that BAzz and TB, the 2 Methuselahs, better be on the same page Sunday. They owe the entire team. BTW, Ira, this team is more talented than the 2005 one. They deserve 11-5! Go Mighty Bucs!!
December 8th, 2020 at 7:45 am
I have 2 points:
Point 1. We loss to Chiefs (super bowl champs) by 3 points, Rams (west leaders) Saints (10-2) all very good teams. We should of beat the Beers. Can’t win them all, ask the Steelers.
Point 2. Agree with needing to score early. When the Bucs are behind they abandon the running game. When the Bucs have the lead Bowls seems to play more aggressive blitzing more often.
December 8th, 2020 at 8:02 am
Just run the 2minute offense for the first series. Problem solved.
December 8th, 2020 at 8:13 am
I’d rather struggle in November than peak in November…
December 8th, 2020 at 8:25 am
Some of Jameis’s picks simply defied belief. Perfectly intact pocket, mebbe 2nd and 6… throws it STRAIGHT to a linebacker. Absolutely bizarre stuff. Let us not forget the 7 pick 6’s and all the lost fumbles
December 8th, 2020 at 10:40 am
D1… You left out Peyton Manning’s data working with BA.
It’s also worth noting that several of BA’s QB’s threw their career highs in picks in yr1 of working in BA’s vertical offense…Even the GOAT is on track to toss his career high in INT’s in yr1 of BA’s offense.
Beeej… How exactly did TB12 start off his Bucs career?? Or end his Pats career??
December 8th, 2020 at 4:41 pm
Catcard,
I addressed Manning , not by name, BA was his QB coach not offensive coordinator. Different offense so it’s not applicable.
As far as Yr 1 interceptions, Palmer and Winston set personal bests or worst depending upon your perspective. Brady hadnt set a record yet. But that’s not the argument or actually mythos surrounding the Arian way. It’s about the second year in his scheme and the drastic reduction in ints. As the numbers make crystal clear, there is no data to support such claims. Sorry but there’s no middle ground to cede, the 2nd Yr idea is 100% false.