Dropoff For Brady?
July 27th, 2020
Detractors believe a couple of things will catch up to or already have caught up with park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-ignoring Bucs quarterback Tom Brady.
One is age. Brady will be 43 next month. The history of 43-year old quarterbacks isn’t pretty. And there is nothing one can do about that unless avocado ice cream is the magic potion to combat Father Time, who is undefeated.
The other knock on Brady is he had his worse dropoff last season when it came to numbers. But noted gambler and researcher Warren Sharp thinks dropoff, while noticeable, will level off this season.
A stats guy in the sense he uses stats to gain an edge in his gambling, Sharp detailed what might slow down Brady’s perceived eroding numbers in his Warren Sharp’s 2020 Football Preview.
The Buccaneers led the league in passing yardage (4,845 yards) and yards per completion (13.4) while they were third in passing touchdowns (33). But due to the turnover-prone play of Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay ranked just 13th in EPA via their passing offenses while they ranked 14th in success rate (46%) through the air. Winston was the first passer to throw 30 interceptions in a season since Vinny Testaverde in 1988. Tampa Bay has replaced Winston with the league’s most decorated quarterback in Tom Brady. Brady will be 43 years old this August coming off a season in which he posted his lowest yards per pass attempt (6.6 Y/A) in a season since 2002 while his touchdown rate (3.9%) was an all-time low. Brady was 28th in aDOT (8.0) and 15th in air yards per completion (6.0) in 2019 throwing to a limited arsenal of pass catchers, something that is significantly upgraded in Tampa Bay.
A lot of folks are boasting that Brady has never had receivers like he has now. Take away an aging Randy Moss, and that’s true. Brady has never had this sort of collection of tight ends, though he did march to a Super Bowl with Aaron Hernandez and foot-rubbing Rob Gronkowski having monster seasons, alongside Wes Welker catching 122 balls for 1,569 yards.
Brady never had a guy quite like Mike Evans and Joe would suggest outside of Moss, Brady never had a wide receiver as versatile as Chris Godwin. (Nutcase Antonio Brown was only with Brady for a few weeks).
Troy Brown was very good but as good as Godwin? Joe isn’t so sure about that.
Let’s put it this way, Joe is eager to see what Brady does with all of these weapons. Common sense suggests a defense can’t cover all of them if the Bucs find a way to get, Gronk, Evans, Godwin and O.J. Howard or Cameron Brate as the fourth target on the field at the same time.
July 27th, 2020 at 12:11 am
43 is not the same as it used to be. Especially a maniacal 43yr old.
Just finished the last dance about MJ and the Bulls. He said he retired at his peak in 98 because he was wiser. TB at his peak, probably not, top 10 QB, even if he has a bad year. His ceiling is the GOAT, his floor is top 12.
I’ll take that every Sunday!
It sure beats a 5th yr QB with the dreaded ‘potential’.
In BA I Trust!
July 27th, 2020 at 12:16 am
Cool article.
New England’s top receiving weapon (Edelman) would have been 4th string on our team last year. Old man Brady will be fine.
July 27th, 2020 at 12:27 am
We’ll dominant in the red zone. Brady won 2018 SB and ppl wanna say he fell off in 2019 with one of the worst oline and an only Edelman.
#RedZoneKillas!
GO BUCS!!!
July 27th, 2020 at 1:16 am
I don’t think Tom chose us just for the talent, I think he felt ‘held back’ last year in NE. While he’s excellent at finding the ‘open man’ short, he’s a competitor who wants to open it up. He likes the “no risk it no biscuit” offense that Ariens runs.
That and having a little chip on his shoulder put there by Bellicheat…
We may see one of, if not the, wildest offense the NFL has ever seen.
Hold on to your seats.
The perfect storm.
July 27th, 2020 at 1:31 am
STOP IT!!! Tom Brady will be the best thing that has happened to the Bucs in forever. He is a coach on the field. He WILL NOT turn the ball over 30 times a year which cost the Bucs at least 3 games in 2019. He will raise everyone’s level of play. there is NO DOWN SIDE TO HAVING TOM BRADY AS THE BUCS QB. Period. end of story!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
July 27th, 2020 at 3:53 am
Will Brady be the Buc’s QB in 2022? Maybe (probably) not. But as a Buccaneers fan since I first saw the logo in 1975 as a teen, I’m thrilled he’s there. GO BUCS!!!
July 27th, 2020 at 5:48 am
Stop starting every article with park violating etc. nonsense and maybe I’ll take you seriously.
July 27th, 2020 at 6:53 am
BA and Licht’s decision wasn’t replacing the QB position with a more physical QB who can make those difficult throws, rather they replaced Jameis because of his poor decision making. Jameis lost as many games as he won. These are things that are hard to be taught.
Brady is one of the best at making smart decisions and will often put the Bucs in a good position to win most games. If the our DBs improve upon last year and we stay healthy, who knows how far the Bucs will go.
July 27th, 2020 at 7:42 am
And don’t forget…..Brady has DARE coming out of the backfield!!!
July 27th, 2020 at 7:43 am
If Brady cannot excel because he is 43 and the Bucs are doomed, then so are the Saints and their old QB Breed. Yeah…….laughable right?
July 27th, 2020 at 8:00 am
If Donovan Smith opts out for the year does his salary count against the cap?
July 27th, 2020 at 9:19 am
The “You People” movement is out in full support of has been NE12…still pushing brain over brawn and quick release and throwing the reciever open!!! BA caved, he gave up on Mr.5000 for what he thought would be a quick trip to The Big Game!! I CAN’T BREATHE!!
July 27th, 2020 at 9:42 am
The best receiving group in the NFL will more than make up for his deteriorating ability. The positive the Bucs won’t give away the game because of senseless turnovers.
July 27th, 2020 at 10:11 am
The weirdo movement is out in full force for a never was!!!!!!
July 27th, 2020 at 10:52 am
Big – Fantasy Stats don’t win real football games. All men are created equal. You can play the victim card for JW or yourself. But dude made millions, was given every opportunity and fired himself. Couldn’t overcome his game killing tendencies.
In BA I Trust!
July 27th, 2020 at 10:57 am
Rayjay1122 Says:
July 27th, 2020 at 7:43 am
If Brady cannot excel because he is 43 and the Bucs are doomed, then so are the Saints and their old QB Breed. Yeah…….laughable right?
Not quite as they have a guy who just lead the league in passing and number 3 in the NFL in scoring as their backup (currently) and is actually playing in a QB friendly offense for the first time in his career and we have BLAINE GABBERT!
July 27th, 2020 at 11:27 am
Brady at 80% of his 38yr old play is better than most QBs at 100%, because he is just smarter. Knows how to get rid of the ball and how to read almost every D around. He won’t make a mistake like Winston did.
July 27th, 2020 at 11:29 am
Weird cult followers more optimistic for the saints than their own “team”. I’m just waiting for them all to drink that bowl of kool aid so it can be quite around here😬
July 27th, 2020 at 11:33 am
???? If I said if winston wets the bed with the saints is it the rosters fault. Because the saints are an all madden team let y’all tell it. Will the excuses stop I’m seriously curious to the answer to my ?
July 27th, 2020 at 1:41 pm
@Joe,
Im curious, what is the criteria for Brady to beat Father time? Can Brady be the first?
July 27th, 2020 at 2:12 pm
6x Super Bowl Winning, 14X Pro Bowler isn’t he? Amateur hour continues.
Getting old already. I am not the only one saying it. Lame attempt a t humor. Makes you look petty.