Could Bucs Passing Numbers Increase?
June 6th, 2020
“You are so deep Tom.”
Last year the Bucs — behind everyone’s favorite quarterback, Mr. Entertainment, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston — led the NFL in passing.
With Jameis replaced by a soon-to-be 43-year old quarterback, it stands to reason that the Bucs’ passing yards just might go down.
However, after looking at some passing analysis, Joe isn’t so sure.
Warren Sharp is a noted football gambler. And to get an edge on his wagering, he is a supreme numberscruncher. His stats on Bucs receivers are quite interesting to Joe.
We know advanced stats show park-violating, home-invading Bucs quarterback Tom Brady still can throw the long ball. And while the Bucs were quite good at the long ball last year, Brady might get them to a better level.
Looking at the Bucs’ receiving success rate on long passes (success rate per Sharp is a play that gains at least 40 percent of yards-to-go on first down, 60 percent of yards-to-go on second down and 100 percent of yards-to-go on third or fourth down), of the Bucs’ top six receivers/tight ends, all but Chris Godwin had a better success rate catching passes on the right side of the field than the left.
Even with Godwin, his deep receptions on the left side only had a 4 percent improvement over the right side.
These same receivers, other than O.J. Howard and Scotty Miller, they had a better success rate catching deep passes between the hash marks than the left side.
Did Jameis have a hangup throwing deep to the left or a blind spot? Joe is seeing a trend.
Then Joe pulled up Brady’s chart. While the Belicheats didn’t throw deep much, the Pats’ receivers had varying degrees of success on all sides of the field, not just the right side or maybe up the middle.
So it appears on face value that Brady used the entire field on long passes, where Jameis either struggled or had a blind spot throwing deep to the left. That’s a third of the field. A good chunk of real estate.
So if Brady can use all three lanes successfully does it not suggest Bucs receivers might have more success on deep passes?
And could this also be a reason why Jameis threw so many picks, because defenses were shading towards the middle and the Bucs’ right side of the field?
June 6th, 2020 at 12:12 am
“You are so deep Tom.”
.
.
You’re gonna give me the vapors!
June 6th, 2020 at 12:42 am
“Could Bucs Passing Numbers Increase?”
Sure.
June 6th, 2020 at 12:43 am
Going on record as JW Fan, who believes that JW should have been given a YR2 in BA offense. I believe JW’s issues were more complex story than stats present. And I think JW, if Bucs QB in 2020, would deliver 11 wins, playoffs spot and chance for SB win.
MOVING ON…..as Bucs fan, Brady is walking into an excellent WR/TE situation and should lead Bucs to a winning record & playoffs. Difference with Brady at QB, is that Bucs’ team believes their chances for SB are real. Every player will extend that extra “inch” of effort, with Brady as QB. Awesome….
My concern is 43yr old Brady QB will surely be targeted by tougher NFC South defenses/rushes, given Brady’s limited mobility. There will only be so many “throw-aways” that work, before Tom is sacked really hard 5 or 10 times in first 5 games….that changes how Tom approaches game in self-preservation mode.
Having a pass-catching RB is going to be huge for Tom success. I predict 2020 as first year that ME13 misses 1000 yards. Not my wish, just prediction.
Go Bucs!
June 6th, 2020 at 1:51 am
Red Zone ,
Jameis Winston’s 2019 interceptions:
25 with a clean pocket (most in the NFL)
23 within one possession (most in the NFL)
22 targeting WRs (most in the NFL)
19 when trailing (most in the NFL)
17 against zone defenses (most in the NFL)
13 against man defenses (most in the NFL)
13 against a blitz (most in the NFL)
11 on third down (most in the NFL)
10 in the fourth quarter (most in the NFL)
====
RZ, these stats indicate a multitude of problems.
If you believe Yr 2 in BA’s offense would have seen improvement with Winston let’s accept that as true. Now the question is, how much improvement would be reasonable to expect? The stats , if improved 50%, still are terrible. And that’s with the unrealistic expectations that every category improved , and by 50%.
The facts are quite simple and that’s why fans of winston have for each and every year were convinced that winston would be different next year. 5 years of next year is not what fans of any other team are willing to accept. Especially, considering winston hasn’t improved since college. He’s still plagued by the exact same issues. And yet , you’d have us believe that a miracle fix is just around the corner. Sorry, it’s fantastic magical thinking not logical and fact based reasoning.
I admire your faith. I believe it’s misplaced and borderline cultists. For one reason, Winston has never rewarded any team or persons faith in him. His character is a big part of the problem. I would never place my faith in a person who is of bad character. Why, low or bad character individuals are never interested in earning your trust. That’s true with winston, on and off the field.
As far as Brady facing the megs defenses in the NFC. It’s a valid concern on the surface. But if you think about it and examine the claim against the facts you’ll find those concerns are the product of the previous decision to move on from winston.
The Saints have the best defense in our division. They’re ranked 13 or 16. The bills had the #2 defense in the NFL last year. The best defenses change from year to year and conference to conference. To state that Brady will face better defenses is simply not true.
I’ll add this, Brady for the length of his career 20years got each and every opponents A game. Yet he remains upright and cognizance. The Bucs have never gotten another teams A game, we’ve been the opposing teams annual homecoming team. Winston hasnt faced that in 5 years and imagine if he did. 60 ints, 20 fumbles and 100 sacks. Yet you wanted another year of it.
Brady played against playoff teams each and every year due to their record. He played every team in the league many many times and he avoided injury. Winston was injured more in 2 seasons than Brady in 20. So it’s hard to impossible to entertain your concerns as legitimate.
June 6th, 2020 at 7:09 am
Fewer turnovers and a stronger defense will increase possessions and provide an opportunity to increase passing stats.
Having the lead later in games will create more running and negate the need for large chunks of passing yards attempting to catch up.
So, that’s a trade off…..
I think close to the same passing yards with perhaps more completions but less yards per completion.
June 6th, 2020 at 7:53 am
He clearly felt more comfortable staring down his receivers and forcing the ball middle and right field.
Can’t wait to watch Brady show this town the difference between accurately leading your receivers vs the WR’s performing acrobats to catch the ball.
I don’t care about total yards. Fantasy Shmantasy
Vastly improved Situational Football is on the way!
Go Bucs!
In BA I Trust!
June 6th, 2020 at 8:09 am
We were playing from behind most games last year. Wasn’t that a huge contributor to our passing numbers? I hope this years passing numbers do go down significantly. That would mean we aren’t playing from behind (presumably) and we have some sort of run game. I know a lot of us
Bucs fans forgot what a “run game” was but it simply means we can utilize a running back to gain positive yards carrying the ball. One can hope. However, I’m extremely optimistic. Go Bucs!!
June 6th, 2020 at 8:24 am
Joe
Some very interesting analysis and food for thought.
If JW had a blind spot on the left side could it have been “literal” that is to say was his poor vision responsible or is it a habit developed over time.
I’m not going to be happy with JW or his supporters if he blows up and claims that the real reason for his failure was his poor eyesight. That is totally UNACCEPTABLE!!! He had five years to FIX IT.
Assuming that’s not the cause then RedZoneBA’s comment is the next that grabs my interest.
“I believe JW’s issues were more complex story than stats present.”
If we’re back to blaming kickers an OL and everybody else…you’ve lost me…but if you’re simply stating that JW was a hard worker, a cannon arm, huge cojones playing through pain..seemingly well liked by teammates so why did JW fail then?
Since the assets I’ve just listed are all below the neck it seems to me his problems are in his head.
People can debate is intelligence…personality…whatever…but he HAS TALENT and he makes horrid decisions and frequently plays at his worst in the biggest games with the most pressure.
JW plays football like I do golf…oh he has far more talent than me but at the end of the day we are both CHOKERS!
June 6th, 2020 at 9:02 am
D-1
That is just an excellent post. I fancy myself a writer and so I appreciate good writing.
I like to think I’m a decent considerate guy although on a sports blog I sometimes lose my way. Your post was written respectfully, perhaps it’ll rub off. LMAO Not likely here eh?
Your stat presentation was terrific as was the analysis that followed it.
Very well done!
June 6th, 2020 at 9:29 am
I was thinking about jameis interceptions from last year in my head. To see if a lot came on the left side of the field also. After 6 hours of remembering of all his interceptions on the toilet. And not being able to feel my legs. I came to the collision they were not to the left he did an excellent job of spreading the interceptions all over the field. I guess to keep the defense on there toes.
June 6th, 2020 at 11:05 am
Brady won’t stand in long enough for them to beat last year’s stats. Very unlikely they pass deep as much.
June 6th, 2020 at 12:21 pm
D1, as I stated in first paragraph, JW’s issues were more complex story than stats present. And would have liked to see JW‘s growth in Yr 2 in BA s offense. Carson Palmer, a seasoned vet who experienced the learning curve in BAs offense, was on record predicting significant improvement for JW in yr 2. As far as injuries, not many QBs would have been on field for their team with same injuries JW had. Had he chosen to sit out, he likely would be your 2020 QB. None of that matters now.
I am skeptical that a 43 yr old immobile QB is going to make it through 16 games in this offense, and that statement has nothing to do with who the Bucs QB was in 2019. It’s all about Brady. Our Oline is average, and Tom will not have time to tie his shoelaces as he surveys the field like he did in NE. I get that Brady’s outstanding experience and 6 rings will immediately elevate the intensity and effort of his new teammates. But if this offense is still going to be risk it biscuit, Brady will experience duress unknown to him in 20 yrs. Hits add up…
All conjecture until the whistle blows in September. It will be interesting to see how the season plays out. No matter, this is going to be one of most exciting schedules I can recall as Bucs fan…
June 6th, 2020 at 1:58 pm
Leading the league in passing is a losers stat. Lets try to lead the league in wins, especially by one score in the forth quarter.
June 6th, 2020 at 3:13 pm
This LASIK stuff is wildly overblown. Are we to believe a blind quarterback led the NFL in passing?
June 6th, 2020 at 3:29 pm
I’ll gladly take 4500+ yards passing and WINS over 5000 and a losing season…
Especially if there is NO more throwing the game winning pass to the opponent!
June 6th, 2020 at 9:16 pm
Joe Says:
June 6th, 2020 at 3:13 pm
If JW had a blind spot on the left side could it have been “literal” that is to say was his poor vision responsible or is it a habit developed over time.
“This LASIK stuff is wildly overblown. Are we to believe a blind quarterback led the NFL in passing?”
There might be something to it, Joe… Much of the time it looked like JW was throwing the ball to where he thought the receiver might be, according to the design of the play, whether or not the receiver was there/open.
June 7th, 2020 at 11:14 am
Brady is the key. The Bucs will only go as far as Brady takes them. Without him they are not even a 500 team.
June 7th, 2020 at 12:29 pm
Was just thinking that as I read the last part of the article Joe. Just addition by subtraction will increase the passing game. The Bucs have historically never been much at screen passes and with Brady’s penchant for throwing to the rbs that part of the passing game will improve. Then if you factor in that more than half of the turnovers disappear with the ball in his hand and more going to the correct player yeah YAC and passing yards automatically will increase. He threw four 4200 yards with what he had and now has so much better.
June 7th, 2020 at 3:55 pm
Tom what about the defense and the runningback they have to do there Jobs . You see that’s why the Patriots win because they command everyone to do their Job . Franchises and fan bases like ours except for 1 guy to do his job even though that position depends on everyone around him to be successful and that’s the quarterback position . The most over rated position in the Game . I can name 1 guy !!!! NICK FOLES what happened to him last year on a different team that wasn’t as good as the one he left ??? He didn’t do to well !!!