Bucs In Top Ten
May 27th, 2020
Spreadsheeters react.
In today’s age, unless you can slap a blankety-blank number on something, it isn’t worth a s(p)it.
“Bulls(p)it!” as Joe’s good friend, the late great dean of Tampa Bay sports radio, the Big Dog, Steve Duemig, would say.
(Man, with The Sickness and the subsequent state lockdowns, wouldn’t Duemig have been going wild! Joe misses the guy so.)
Over at BSPN, their resident numbers crunchers have worked their Excel software until it’s corrupted trying to predict the NFL season, based solely on numbers and not film study. And they have the Bucs as the No. 8 team despite the additions of park-violating, home-invading quarterback Tom Brady and tight end Rob Gronkowski.
As far as winning the Super Bowl? Don’t hold your breath, types Seth Walder.
The buzz around the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Patriots feels noticeably different this offseason. And yet, FPI doesn’t see much of a difference between these two teams. Though FPI does have Tampa Bay as the better of the two franchises entering 2020, the Bucs and Pats are back-to-back in the model’s rankings at No. 8 and No. 9.
That translates into a slight advantage for the Bucs in terms of chance to reach the playoffs. Tampa Bay has a 63% chance to reach the postseason, while FPI projects a 60% chance for New England. In other words, Brady’s departure has hurt FPI’s view of the Patriots, who finished last year fourth in its rankings, but the model has hardly written off Bill Belichick & Co. yet.
What about a seventh ring for Brady? Tampa Bay has a 4% chance to win the Super Bowl, and the Patriots have a 3% chance. Though the Bucs are legitimate contenders, these are the worst preseason projections a Brady-led team has had since ESPN started doing them in 2015.
The same crowd also predicts the Bucs will have nine wins — oh, about that 8.5 season-wins line — and the Bucs will have a 63 percent shot at making the playoffs.
Once again, the key with the Bucs is keeping Brady healthy. Everything else should be relative gravy. Keep Brady on two feet, and the Bucs should make the playoffs.
If the Bucs need to rely on Blaine Gabbert, it’s time to start drinking. Heavily.
May 27th, 2020 at 2:58 pm
Hey…..and I’m at even par on teeing off on hole #1……..
May 27th, 2020 at 3:34 pm
Off subject but I just heard they wanna take on-sides kicks out of the game?
Dude can they please stop messing with the rule book. It’s gotta so bad nobody understands them anymore and they gotta bring in some egghead to talk about the rules during the broadcast because nobody freaking knows what the heck is going on.
And that rule doesn’t even make any sense. There is no fundamental reason to even change it. All I can think of is somebody has a hair up his ass because there more hitting on them plays. There sure isn’t a logic football reason to change that play.
May 27th, 2020 at 3:40 pm
And what if your watching the game with somebody who don’t know and try to explain what’s going on………..”well, they should be kicking but they can tell the ref they don’t wanna and they give them the ball at some random spot and the get a random down and distance to work from”………..It doesn’t even make any sense………And if you try to explain the rule you will get asked at least one “why” question that is totally unanswereble………..A freaking on-sides kick. It makes perfect sense and can logically be explained………This new rule is just what some dude thought up no real logic behind it.
I have no idea why the league insists on making everything more complicated. None of which has worked in mine opinion.
***END RANT***
May 27th, 2020 at 3:58 pm
The NFL changed onside kick rules a couple of years ago where you couldn’t have 8-10 guys slam into one area. They all have to stay in their lanes. As a result, successful onside kicks have plunged.
Also, you answered your own question. Roger Goodell doesn’t want hits (he’s even talked about forcing offensive lineman to only take two-point stances).
Ira just wrote a full column on the onside kick rule.
May 27th, 2020 at 4:09 pm
It is kind of amazing how experts have bias towards teams based on past results. Jared Stidham is a scrub QB. That is enough right there to give them a losing season. The GOAT was unhappy with the lack of talent at receiver in NE. How do you think a guy with a ceiling of average back up QB is going to perform with a lack of talent. They have no quality TEs either. Tampa has some of the best talent in the league at those skill positions. I can’t believe anyone thinks these two teams are in the same league after the off season moves that were made. SMH!
May 27th, 2020 at 4:27 pm
I’ll take any ranking with a grain of salt right now, good or bad.
I’d guess their method does not take into account the lack of offseason training programs.
Who did they favor to win the Superbowl last year?
NFC Championship baby!
May 27th, 2020 at 5:35 pm
It takes a lot of luck and timing to get to the big one.
That goes for other teams, as well as the Bucs.
May 27th, 2020 at 7:12 pm
That’s why they play the game. Rankings at this time mean absolutely nothing!
May 27th, 2020 at 7:13 pm
That’s why they play the game. Rankings at this time mean absolutely nothing!
May 27th, 2020 at 9:19 pm
Nice one TBBF!
May 27th, 2020 at 10:32 pm
Witness the greatest nfl story ever told. Thank you tom bucs win Superbowl in our house…. goat
May 28th, 2020 at 12:08 am
I’d like to see more projections like this. Put away the anointing oil, as Big Tuna once said (paraphrased).
May 28th, 2020 at 6:03 am
Duemig got me into listening to sports radio. Entertaining dude who was never boring.